Tribute Kyle Dubas discussion

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I think regardless of what happens this year, Dubas will be judged on what happens this upcoming summer. He did the best he could with the defense this year under a huge cap crunch but if we do the right thing and go cheap up front (Move Kapanen/Johnsson/Kerfoot/possibly Mik/Hyman.)

You would have about $18-20M to add 2 RHD and a backup goalie to this group.

Just based on Moore/Petan/Korshkov/Agostino being signed next year and the rest of these guys should be cheap to re-sign.

Moore-Tavares-Marner
Korshkov-Matthews-Nylander
Petan-Engvall-Bracco
Agostino-Gauthier-Timashov

Rielly-???
Dermott-???
Sandin-Liljegren

Andersen

$20M to fill 3 holes. You can get some really good assets if you move the forwards mentioned above, maybe even fill the 2nd pair RD spot.

Should be easily doable, and if not then yes I think the clock starts ticking.

 

[DarkKnight]

For one, they've had much more difficulty in usage....

For two, they had a rough start with a smaller sample size to work with, so it makes their play look worse than what its been


Team GA (minus PP TGA):
Barrie: 35
Tavares: 24
Marner: 18

Team GF(minus PP TGF)
Barrie: 23
Tavares: 22
Marner: 16

Team Goal differential:
Barrie: -12
Tavares: -2
Marner: -2

Marner was also top ten in scoring and the tops in the entire league for takeaways, first line PK. That stuff makes “net negative” hilarity personified. Was Marner off? Sure he was uneven and was turning it over, JT wasn’t himself , nobody thought they were on their games. But to argue they were as bad as Barrie, who was literally doing nothing, is whack.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

For one, they've had much more difficulty in usage....

For two, they had a rough start with a smaller sample size to work with, so it makes their play look worse than what its been


Team GA (minus PP TGA):
Barrie: 35
Tavares: 24
Marner: 18

Team GF(minus PP TGF)
Barrie: 23
Tavares: 22
Marner: 16

Team Goal differential:
Barrie: -12
Tavares: -2
Marner: -2

This is very, very false and misleading. Come on man, you going to pretend like Tavares/Marner haven't missed a bunch of games?

Team GA per 60 minutes (Even-strength):
Tavares: 3.71
Marner: 3.68
Barrie: 3.44

 

[Gary Nylund]

Because it doesn't matter what he did in Colorado... He was carried by Mackinnon there.... what made him successful in Colorado clearly isn't here in Toronto...

You're being ridiculous. Colorado is the only team Barrie has ever played for so if what he did there doesn't matter, how is he supposed to be evaluated at all? And LOL at Mackinnon carrying him, WTF are you even talking about.

Ridiculous.

Calling Barrie a 3rd pairing D-man tells you all you need to know about Leaf fans and their overreactions lol.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

For one, they've had much more difficulty in usage....

For two, they had a rough start with a smaller sample size to work with, so it makes their play look worse than what its been


Team GA (minus PP TGA):
Barrie: 35
Tavares: 24
Marner: 18

Team GF(minus PP TGF)
Barrie: 23
Tavares: 22
Marner: 16

Team Goal differential:
Barrie: -12
Tavares: -2
Marner: -2

Well, you can either admit all 3 are net negative players or that there is more to analysis than goal differential, and that it's ridiculous to say Barrie is a 3rd pairing caliber player

 

[MyBudJT]

This is very, very false and misleading. Come on man, you going to pretend like Tavares/Marner haven't missed a bunch of games?

Team GA per 60 minutes (Even-strength):
Tavares: 3.71
Marner: 3.68
Barrie: 3.44

Its a rather simple metric and nothing misleading about it...

I'm looking at goals against (without penalizing goals against while on the PK), and goals for (without crediting goals for from the PP). So when a player gets scored against while on the PP, they still get penalized, and when they score a goal while on the PK, they still get credit. This makes more sense than looking at 5v5 or EV goals for / against metrics, since it uses a larger sample size.

 

[MyBudJT]

You're being ridiculous. Colorado is the only team Barrie has ever played for so if what he did there doesn't matter, how is he supposed to be evaluated at all? And LOL at Mackinnon carrying him, WTF are you even talking about.

Ridiculous.

Feel free to debate the opinion if you want. So far, I haven't seen anyone show anything that shows that Barrie has been a net positive for us this season....

 

[Gary Nylund]

This is very, very false and misleading. Come on man, you going to pretend like Tavares/Marner haven't missed a bunch of games?

Team GA per 60 minutes (Even-strength):
Tavares: 3.71
Marner: 3.68
Barrie: 3.44

It would appear so. Either he doesn't understand the numbers he posted, or he does but is ignoring context to support his POV. Not sure what's worse.

In any case, if ridiculous arguments like that are all he has then clearly he has no case.

Ridiculous.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Its a rather simple metric and nothing misleading about it...

I'm looking at goals against (without penalizing goals against while on the PK), and goals for (without crediting goals for from the PP). So when a player gets scored against while on the PP, they still get penalized, and when they score a goal while on the PK, they still get credit. This makes more sense than looking at 5v5 or EV goals for / against metrics, since it uses a larger sample size.

it's also a sample that punishes Barrie since he can only get credit for goals against on the PP, but Marner can only get credit for shorthanded goals for

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Prove it wrong... lol. Barrie has by far been our worst defensman this season...

Barrie:
CF%: 2nd best (55.08)
CA/60: 2nd best (53.62)
CF/60: 2nd best (65.76)
High-danger shots against: 2nd best (10.62)

PDO: 0.951 . Just like the team's PDO, we've been unlucky with the goals against and are slowly turning it around.

Anyways, you've got an agenda to push as seen by your misleading Tavares/Marner/Barrie comparisons. If I had an agenda to push, I would be trashing Tavares/Marner right now and saying they're the worst 2 players on the team lol. But I'm not jumping to conclusions like a lot of Leaf fans are with both Barrie and this team.

 

[MyBudJT]

Well, you can either admit all 3 are net negative players or that there is more to analysis than goal differential, and that it's ridiculous to say Barrie is a 3rd pairing caliber player

But all three haven't been net negative players.... and feel free to prove me wrong. I've supported my argument, go ahead and support yours....

 

[Gary Nylund]

Feel free to debate the opinion if you want. So far, I haven't seen anyone show anything that shows that Barrie has been a net positive for us this season....

You called Barrie a 3rd pairing Dman, that's not something that's worthy of debate, that's just ridiculous.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

But all three haven't been net negative players.... and feel free to prove me wrong. I've supported my argument, go ahead and support yours....

Well, obviously none are net negative players and it's obvious I am not trying to make that case. But all 3 have negative goal differentials at 5v5 and you're only using that as an excuse to criticize Barrie while giving the others a pass for no reason

 

[DarkKnight]

I do like Keefe’s strategy of starting Muzzin 80 percent of the time in his end, Barrie 80 percent in their end. That way you mitigate defensive breakdowns and play to your strengths.

 

[MyBudJT]

it's also a sample that punishes Barrie since he can only get credit for goals against on the PP, but Marner can only get credit for shorthanded goals for

Its a sample that punishes Marner and Tavares more than it does Barrie... Marner and Tavares both get more PP minutes than Barrie.... Considering Marner only has one PP point (and probably only been on the ice for one or two SH goals for), its doesn't sway the results drastically in any way...

 

[LeafingTheWay]

I do like Keefe’s strategy of starting Muzzin 80 percent of the time in his end, Barrie 80 percent in their end. That way you mitigate defensive breakdowns and play to your strengths.

I agree, but that's a big exaggeration I think lol.

Under Keefe, Barrie starts ~60% of his time in the offensive-zone (less than other top team's offensive stars such Krug, Makar, Klingberg but slightly more than Seth Jones, Werenski, Rielly, Hainsey, etc).

 

[TmlHockeyFan]

Not a big Dubas fan but won't vote until closer to end of season. Too soon to say since him and Babcock were never on the same page. Let's see how Keefe does with this team then I'll judge.

But still concerned about his previous moves. No toughness with this team, terrible at contract negotiations.

 

[DarkKnight]

I agree, but that's a big exaggeration I think lol.

Under Keefe, Barrie starts ~60% of his time in the offensive-zone (less than other top team's offensive stars such Krug, Makar, Klingberg but slightly more than Seth Jones, Werenski, Rielly, Hainsey, etc).

That was last game( actually 85 percent) and it’s trending this way of late. For instance 68 game prior, 73 game before that, he’s trusting him less in our end. So keep lol.

 

[Schooner]

Nah, a mil or two more than I wanted. But that's the part of the roster to overpay, if you do.

Tbh my least favorite contract on the team is the Tavares one. But even then, i don't hate it.

I would rather overpay for a Marner rather than a Lucic. As long as you aren't overpaying depth what do we think Pridham is getting paid for.

 

[MyBudJT]

I would rather overpay for a Marner rather than a Lucic. As long as you aren't overpaying depth what do we think Pridham is getting paid for.

Except I'd argue he has overpaid depth (i.e. Johnsson and Kerfoot). Johnsson barely 0.5 P/GP, despite playing on the 1st line with PP1 time most of the season. For 3.5 mil! Ouch.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

That was last game( actually 85 percent) and it’s trending this way of late. For instance 68 game prior, 73 game before that, he’s trusting him less in our end. So keep lol.

That's fine by me lol.

If we finally have a coach that is utilizing our team's offensive talent like the way they're supposed to be, then I fully support. Seth Jones, Torey Krug, Makar, etc are all in the same boat and most of them have more offensive zone starts. So makes sense for Keefe to utilize him like that.

 

[DarkKnight]

That's fine by me lol.

If we finally have a coach that is utilizing our team's offensive talent like the way they're supposed to be, then I fully support. Seth Jones, Torey Krug, Makar, etc are all in the same boat and most of them have more offensive zone starts. So makes sense for Keefe to utilize him like that.

You got ZIP. Lol is right. You just agreed with my praise of Keefe which you took issue with earlier. I’ll leave to bite your own tail and not realize it.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

It would appear so. Either he doesn't understand the numbers he posted, or he does but is ignoring context to support his POV. Not sure what's worse.

In any case, if ridiculous arguments like that are all he has then clearly he has no case.

Ridiculous.

Yeah I'm done debating in this thread Logic doesn't exist here.

 

[likecheese]

I do like Keefe’s strategy of starting Muzzin 80 percent of the time in his end, Barrie 80 percent in their end. That way you mitigate defensive breakdowns and play to your strengths.

Only in Toronto, it seems, where normal, common-sense coaching is the exception and not the rule.

 

[Durrr]

There are a few Dubas decisions I don't agree with / understand... but overall I don't hate him.

Some of my issues include:
1) Trading Brown because he got paid 2.1M, but then goes ahead and signs Johnsson for 3.5 x 4
2) Trade Kadri for a 3rd pairing defensemen (or 13th forward, readlly) and lesser centerman...
3) Overpays RFAs in general... especially Nylander, Matthews and Marner
4) Opting to keep Johnsson instead of a 1st round pick when dumping Marleau on Carolina...

He seems to be doing a good job of drafting and developing talent, though.

1. Johnson is better then Brown, and Brown was being played on the fourth line under Babs. Absolutely a spot you have to shed salary from when youre that tight to the ceiling. He made the right choice. See #3.

2. Tyson Barrie is a 3rd pairing defender? I'm not big on this trade either, but let's not get carried away here and pretend that Barrie isn't a #2/3 defender in today's NHL. Kerfoot is the kind of center you need to have when you have JT/AM sucking up 22 million combined as #1/2. See the Penguins with Jordan Stall, and how they had to ship him out. Leaf's were far weaker on D then up the middle, makes perfect sense in theory but we're really missing Kadri's compete right now.

3. Nylander is not overpaid, but I do agree that he could have saved 2-3 million on both AM/MM deals combined and been in a spot to keep Brown and get a goalie.

4. You think a hypothetical late first is worth as much as our 2nd line wing depth? That first should have been irrelevant this year based on our spot last year, and this team can't be put together with Marleau's 6 mil on the books.