Kyle Dubas discussion II

[Leaf Fans]

you sure Dubie didn't run the Leafs as agm ? he sure got most if not all the credit for any good move on this board at that time even though he said Lou kicked kicked him to the Marlies the second he got here

what does it mean then ?

I am sure. He gets credit for what he has done and accepts blame for what he has failed to do. An agm traditionally takes care of the Marlies among their other duties. Saying Lou kicked him to the Marlies is disingenuous.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Just curious, what numbers are you looking at to come to the conclusion that the leafs are the 3rd best team defensively?

The best metric we have to measure defensive play - expected goals against. Though we can also add in other defensive metrics (FA, CA, SA, SCA, HDCA, etc.). Pretty much all statistical models and defensive metrics have us within the top tier range defensively this year.

 

[vpasla1]

This is incorrect. Both of their contracts are consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts in the cap era, at their term. Matthews had earned the 5th highest value post-ELC contract in the cap era, and he received the 6th highest value post-ELC contract, term considered. Marner had earned the 6th highest value post-ELC contract in the cap era, and he received the 10th highest value post-ELC contract, term considered.

For the whole picture, who were 1 through 10?

I'm curious what the numbers were. Term, year signed, and cap hit percentage.

Also, how does one determine earned versus received?

 

[rielledup]

The best metric we have to measure defensive play - expected goals against. Though we can also add in other defensive metrics (FA, CA, SA, SCA, HDCA, etc.). Pretty much all statistical models and defensive metrics have us within the top tier range defensively this year.

I just looked on money puck and they have the leafs ranked 17th for expected goals against?

 

[Dekes For Days]

For the whole picture, who were 1 through 10?
I'm curious what the numbers were. Term, year signed, and cap hit percentage.

Order for a couple could vary slightly depending on the value one gives a year of term, but the most accurate term considered list would probably be:

1. Crosby - 17.30% x 5 years
2. Ovechkin - 18.96% x 13 years (into decline years*)
3. Kovalchuk - 16.41% x 5 years
4. Malkin - 15.34% x 5 years
5. McDavid - 16.67% x 8 years (17.67% negotiated)
6. Matthews - 14.64% x 5 years
7. Nash - 13.85% x 5 years
8. Vanek - 14.20% x 7 years
9. Heatley - 11.54% x 3 years
10. Marner - 13.38% x 6 years

Also, how does one determine earned versus received?

Received is where the contract they got would rank, and earned is based on comparing their performances through their respective pre-signing periods.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I just looked on money puck and they have the leafs ranked 17th for expected goals against?

Not sure what you're looking at, but we're 3rd on NaturalStatTrick behind Boston and Calgary, and on Moneypuck, we're technically tied for 5th, but realistically in a 5-way tie for 3rd (0.01 xGA/60 difference) behind Boston and Calgary.

 

[IPS]

Not sure what you're looking at, but we're 3rd on NaturalStatTrick behind Boston and Calgary, and on Moneypuck, we're technically tied for 5th, but realistically in a 5-way tie for 3rd (0.01 xGA/60 difference) behind Boston and Calgary.

Wouldn't it be more logical to apply xga/60 to 5 on 5 or atleast even strength?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Wouldn't it be more logical to apply xga/60 to 5 on 5 or atleast even strength?

Why? I mean, it's no secret our ranking is helped by our excellent penalty killing, but that's a pretty important aspect of a team's overall defensive play.

 

[IPS]

Why? I mean, it's no secret our ranking is helped by our excellent penalty killing, but that's a pretty important aspect of a team's overall defensive play.

And what exactly does mixing a bunch of PP time into xga/60 do for it? Seems like it muddies it quite a bit.

You can filter it by penalty kill and have a much clearer individual picture in regards to that, which Toronto ranks a healthy 3rd.

By pure 5v5 (which is how the playoffs are mostly played) - Toronto ranks 8th (which doesn't fit your picture of Toronto being top-3 so I'm assuming that's why you don't like it).

 

[zeke]

And what exactly does mixing a bunch of PP time into xga/60 do for it? Seems like it muddies it quite a bit.

You can filter it by penalty kill and have a much clearer individual picture in regards to that, which Toronto ranks a healthy 3rd.

By pure 5v5 (which is how the playoffs are mostly played) - Toronto ranks 8th (which doesn't fit your picture of Toronto being top-3 so I'm assuming that's why you don't like it).

Evolving-hockey.com has the Leafs 6th at 5v5 (tho in a virtual tie tor 5th), 5th at EV, 2nd on the PK, and 3rd in All Situations.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And what exactly does mixing a bunch of PP time into xga/60 do for it?

Probably not a lot, since there's so little happening defensively on the PP, but again, if you're giving up chances on the PP, is that not relevant to the overall defensive play of your team?

You can filter it by penalty kill and have a much clearer individual picture in regards to that, which Toronto ranks a healthy 3rd.
By pure 5v5 (which is how the playoffs are mostly played) - Toronto ranks 8th (which doesn't fit your picture of Toronto being top-3 so I'm assuming that's why you don't like it).

I mean, if you really want to separate it you can. 8th at 5v5 and 3rd on the PK is still a really good defensive team, and they combine for the 3rd best results overall.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

And what exactly does mixing a bunch of PP time into xga/60 do for it? Seems like it muddies it quite a bit.

You can filter it by penalty kill and have a much clearer individual picture in regards to that, which Toronto ranks a healthy 3rd.

By pure 5v5 (which is how the playoffs are mostly played) - Toronto ranks 8th (which doesn't fit your picture of Toronto being top-3 so I'm assuming that's why you don't like it).

the difference between the Leafs and a top 3 team at 5v5 is pretty miniscule though. You're talking about a difference of fewer than 2 expected goals over 77 games

 

[deprw]

Matthews certainly did. Marner did as well.

Matthews already had a great comparable in Steven Stamkos. Primarily goal scoring centers(at the time), both #1 overall picks, both signed 5 year deals post-ELC, Stamkos got 11.66% of the cap vs Matthews 14.63%, or equivalent to about 9.25x5 when Matthews signed his deal. And Stamkos had already had a Richard to his name by that point.

Sorry, but you cannot use those Tampa Bay or Florida comparable without accounting in their tax advantage they have and which they have utilized perfectly. Big competitive advantage.

 

[Nylanderthal]

I didn't put words in your mouth , you implied that another GM may have moved on from our young core when you said ''he acquired or re-signed every piece on the team'' what else could i have taken from this statement other than you believed another GM may have moved one if not all our young core ?

why aren't you interested in commenting about the three GM's i mentioned ? there situations are similar to Dubies since they all inherited a cup wining or potential cup wining core so i don't understand your apprehension on giving an opinion on them

He was either agm, GM or co-gm for every f***ing piece on this team aside from Rielly, and is responsible for every contracts on the books. Would it kill you to give it a rest and just admit this is his goddamn team

 

[deprw]

Such a weird tone in this thread considering the teams current play and position in league standing.

So many here are so fire Dubas trigger happy that they are actually actively cheering for this team to fail or can’t enjoy the ride.

Sad

This is why I bother to write on this thread. "Fire Dubas trigger happy", well said. For once I feel we have competent management from top to bottom and this organization is progressing towards way that I genuinely feel we can win cup eventually.

After Ballard and PPP years, there is a feeling that we're ahead of this league.

Burke was brought into this thread and I can admit, at the time he felt good change. He utilized our resources and built strong front office and tried to push pride into this organization. He just fell behind time and wasn't up to par with 2010s how to manage team in this era. Made our front office old boys club, but at least he brought in people and had vision.

I think Shanahan has been way more progressive and I like it. We have built different culture and utilized our resources even better and we don't have any cocky demeanour which Burke had.

People bash analytics and being progressive here, but way I see it we're learning all the time. We don't have that know it all attitude and we understand that leading people is in big change. What worked 10 years won't work anymore.

What I fear is change for sake of change. It should be about process not about results. We have just started with our process. Our drafting is so much better than with Hunter.

Like one said above we're missing a goalie and almost one line worth of people and can you see it from our play? We are some much better than ever before, that it's ridiculous. If we continue on this path we will get our price eventually.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

He was either agm, GM or co-gm for every f***ing piece on this team aside from Rielly, and is responsible for every contracts on the books. Would it kill you to give it a rest and just admit this is his goddamn team

No time. Too busy "cheering for the crest".

 

[deprw]

We could admit he is trolling, done it full decade. First we get this what he inherited discussion and after that we get comments of Brisebois, Rutherford and Bowman. All of them inherited their most important pieces and Brisebois & Bowman actually whole operation. Two of them were AGM like Dubas. Could also note that both organizations failed to win and continued on same path and won.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Dubas is a quality GM.

I criticize some of his mistakes but I also want him to be the one to fix them. The same goes if they lose in round 1 again.

The way he's built up the depth, dealt with his mistakes, and drafted has shown he's good at his job.

No GM is perfect but Dubas is very good.

 

[ACC1224]

Dubas is a quality GM.

I criticize some of his mistakes but I also want him to be the one to fix them. The same goes if they lose in round 1 again.

The way he's built up the depth, dealt with his mistakes, and drafted has shown he's good at his job.

No GM is perfect but Dubas is very good.

Like

 

[Mr Bill Waters]

I think Dubas is a generational GM, in line with Sather, Ross and Pollock. He has done everything needed by a GM: shored up defense, drafted wisely, and, save for a few weeks in winter, fixed our goaltending. Its up to the players to execute. No excuses. Looking towards the future, even if Matthews leaves in 2 years, its important that Dubas keep learning on the go in order to finish the job. Players come and go, but generational management is hard to find.

 

[Judas Tavares]

This is why I bother to write on this thread. "Fire Dubas trigger happy", well said. For once I feel we have competent management from top to bottom and this organization is progressing towards way that I genuinely feel we can win cup eventually.

After Ballard and PPP years, there is a feeling that we're ahead of this league.

Burke was brought into this thread and I can admit, at the time he felt good change. He utilized our resources and built strong front office and tried to push pride into this organization. He just fell behind time and wasn't up to par with 2010s how to manage team in this era. Made our front office old boys club, but at least he brought in people and had vision.

I think Shanahan has been way more progressive and I like it. We have built different culture and utilized our resources even better and we don't have any cocky demeanour which Burke had.

People bash analytics and being progressive here, but way I see it we're learning all the time. We don't have that know it all attitude and we understand that leading people is in big change. What worked 10 years won't work anymore.

What I fear is change for sake of change. It should be about process not about results. We have just started with our process. Our drafting is so much better than with Hunter.

Like one said above we're missing a goalie and almost one line worth of people and can you see it from our play? We are some much better than ever before, that it's ridiculous. If we continue on this path we will get our price eventually.

While results haven't been there, one thing I've always liked is a change of vision/perspective with Dubas. Coming out of the 04-05 lockout, this team was ill-prepared to compete. They were stuck in the past and night in night out we saw a younger and more skilled league just destroy us and outclass us. Sure we had some enforcers to muck it up after we were well out of the game. But there was just such enviable skill and youth on other teams. Those teams found a way to push ahead in a new era.

Progressive thinking to me was a breath of fresh air, rather than the same old, old boys club. The team hadn't won since 1967 and then after some major league changes, the league got so different. It was time to adapt or die, or even get ahead of the curve. I wasn't ready to be stuck in the 1900s year after year. And that is why Dubas was a breath of fresh air. Now we just need results.

If things don't work out and he needs to be replaced, I'd once again want someone progressive, or someone who recently played the game. Just not some retread. I get experience is paramount, but not when they are stuck in the wrong decade or even millennium and are also stubborn.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I think Dubas is a generational GM, in line with Sather, Ross and Pollock. He has done everything needed by a GM: shored up defense, drafted wisely, and, save for a few weeks in winter, fixed our goaltending. Its up to the players to execute. No excuses. Looking towards the future, even if Matthews leaves in 2 years, its important that Dubas keep learning on the go in order to finish the job. Players come and go, but generational management is hard to find.

I somewhat agree. Although, in my opinion, he has not won enough in the post season to have those comparisons. He has made the defense better, drafted well, and has done well with the goaltending, there is still a long way to go.

 

[ACC1224]

I think Dubas is a generational GM, in line with Sather, Ross and Pollock. He has done everything needed by a GM: shored up defense, drafted wisely, and, save for a few weeks in winter, fixed our goaltending. Its up to the players to execute. No excuses. Looking towards the future, even if Matthews leaves in 2 years, its important that Dubas keep learning on the go in order to finish the job. Players come and go, but generational management is hard to find.

Slow down there big shooter.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Dubas is a quality GM.

I criticize some of his mistakes but I also want him to be the one to fix them. The same goes if they lose in round 1 again.

The way he's built up the depth, dealt with his mistakes, and drafted has shown he's good at his job.

No GM is perfect but Dubas is very good.

This is exactly it.

I really think Kyle has the ability to be the best GM in hockey TBH. I already put him near the top. His ability to adapt is something I've never witnessed from my 30+ years of fandom.

Like you said, he is far from mistake-free, but he is willing and able to fix those mistakes. The key word is willing. Not many GM's would directly contradict a prior move they have personally made to move the ball forward. I cannot count how many time Kyle has done this. Trading Ritchie and letting Barrie and Foligno walk are the 3 that instantly come to mind.

regardless of outcome I want Kyle to be in charge. Until he does something that negatively impacts the landscape of our organization for years to come I will support him.

 

[hotpaws]

He was either agm, GM or co-gm for every f***ing piece on this team aside from Rielly, and is responsible for every contracts on the books. Would it kill you to give it a rest and just admit this is his goddamn team

i think i'll give Gilliam and Pridum the credit since i keep reading it['s really the agm that runs the team