Kyle Dubas discussion II

[Nylanderthal]

You can’t blame Hunter for the bad picks and give Dubas credit for the good ones.

I’m not giving credit to Dubas for good ones, and frankly I don’t really give a whole lot of merit to picking what was clearly the best player available, hitting on a puck in the top 5 isn’t the same as hitting on your mid and late round picks. I’m saying as far as everything known they were on the same page with marner and babcock wanted hanifin.
If marner wasn’t on the board they were most likely going to trade back to 7 and take Columbus’ 3 2nds in exchange, probably targeting Werenski or Rantanen.
All I was saying to mess was that the guys he pointed out were all drafted by Hunter and had little to do with Dubas.
Hunter was the supposed draft guru and you defer to that guy more and more the later in the draft you get

 

[Jojalu]

Maybe try looking around without the homer glasses on, and you’d be able to see these examples yourself? Kings, Rangers are both setup for success for the next 12+ years (unlike the Leafs), and haven’t Doobled up multiple first round picks in the process. That’s long term thinking.

This is because the Leafs are ahead of their rebuild. The Rangers and Kings will now trade assets for help at the deadline going forward.

Kakko and Laf have been pretty meh and won't need anything but a minor bridge. If they had the success of Marner and Matthews they would be in big trouble. They have to pay Fox and their lights out goalie. There simply isn't enough money in a vap world for all of them.

 

[Jojalu]

The Kings are already in a playoff position, and their numerous elite prospects and young players still have many years of growth ahead and project quite well.

The Rangers have Kakko/Lundkvist/Lafreniere/Miller/Othmann etc in the pipeline (or already on the team) ready to take over for their current core in a couple years, while Fox and Shesterkin are the elite/young current core pieces that will ride both waves, so to speak.

As I accidently wrote have instead of had to...

The Rangers are very much like the Leafs in they have 35 million tied into 4 players for the next 5 years.

They wouldn't be able to keep Laf and Kakko if they were impact players. Fortunately for them they can bridge them fairly cheap and hope they outperform their contracts.

With Robertson and Knies, Lily and Sandin the Leafa are set up for the future just like the Kings and Rangers.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Be prepared for the "we got goalied by Vasi" excuses if we lose to Tampa in round #1.

Only if the Leafs get goalied by Vasi in the first round.

 

[Leaf Fans]

You can’t blame Hunter for the bad picks and give Dubas credit for the good ones.

True enough, they were a team.

 

[ToneDog]

Only if the Leafs get goalied by Vasi in the first round.

They have a big D like the Habs and if they keep the Leafs to the perimeter and Vasi does not give up cheap goals, it won't really be because we got "goalied" but the usual suspects will say it was. Let's hope we do not cross that bridge.

 

[Leaf Fans]

They have a big D like the Habs and if they keep the Leafs to the perimeter and Vasi does not give up cheap goals, it won't really be because we got "goalied" but the usual suspects will say it was. Let's hope we do not cross that bridge.

Yeah, I am saying that if we get goalied, then we will use that excuse. Not for any other reason.

 

[riffle]

As I accidently wrote have instead of had to...

The Rangers are very much like the Leafs in they have 35 million tied into 4 players for the next 5 years.

The Leafs have 40.5 tied into 4 players and for less term.

The Leafs have 33.54 tied into 3 players and for less term.

In Dubas' defense he didn't know we'd be going flat cap for years when he gave those bloated deals. When they should be looking more tolerable, they're looking worse as the cap isn't going up as expected when deals consummated.

Tying 40.5 milion into 4 players is a questionable strategy. Tying 33.5+ into 3 is a questionable strategy. It seems to be above reproach for some reason. It is not normal. It had never been done when it was done.

Kyle is the kind of guy who can't say no. He'll kick the can down the road and just deal with it later. This creates all the cap games he plays year after year that some see as masterful when it's necessity due to overpaying talent. These injuries always seem to come at just the right time to make everything work out. I'm sure Muzzin will be all good once the cap goes away in the playoffs. Kase, too.

 

[Martin Skoula]

The Leafs have 40.5 tied into 4 players and for less term.

The Leafs have 33.54 tied into 3 players and for less term.

In Dubas' defense he didn't know we'd be going flat cap for years when he gave those bloated deals. When they should be looking more tolerable, they're looking worse as the cap isn't going up as expected when deals consummated.

Tying 40.5 milion into 4 players is a questionable strategy. Tying 33.5+ into 3 is a questionable strategy. It seems to be above reproach for some reason. It is not normal. It had never been done when it was done.

Kyle is the kind of guy who can't say no. He'll kick the can down the road and just deal with it later. This creates all the cap games he plays year after year that some see as masterful when it's necessity due to overpaying talent. These injuries always seem to come at just the right time to make everything work out. I'm sure Muzzin will be all good once the cap goes away in the playoffs. Kase, too.

Mr Dunning Kruger I don't think you understand how the cap works. If we were to play "cap games" Muzzin would have not been activated until the playoffs and we'd have 5+ mil more cap space to play with at the deadline.

Explain to me in detail the cap game we're playing with Muzzin and Kase, how are we benefiting from this? We're carrying Muzzin's full cap hit for him to play sporadically without being able to bring in an equally priced replacement defender, it's quite literally the opposite of what Vegas/Tampa did in similar situations.

 

[Jojalu]

The Leafs have 40.5 tied into 4 players and for less term.

The Leafs have 33.54 tied into 3 players and for less term.

In Dubas' defense he didn't know we'd be going flat cap for years when he gave those bloated deals. When they should be looking more tolerable, they're looking worse as the cap isn't going up as expected when deals consummated.

Tying 40.5 milion into 4 players is a questionable strategy. Tying 33.5+ into 3 is a questionable strategy. It seems to be above reproach for some reason. It is not normal. It had never been done when it was done.

Kyle is the kind of guy who can't say no. He'll kick the can down the road and just deal with it later. This creates all the cap games he plays year after year that some see as masterful when it's necessity due to overpaying talent. These injuries always seem to come at just the right time to make everything work out. I'm sure Muzzin will be all good once the cap goes away in the playoffs. Kase, too.

I just don't believe the Rangers are in a better spot than the Leafs.

They have 11.7 to sign 12 players next year while the Leafs have 9 to sign 10.

Both have some pretty moveable contracts so that evens out, and you are correct, the Rangers core is signed longer but the Leafs are younger.

I just hope for so many reasons they find success this year in the playoffs.

 

[ToneDog]

The Leafs have 40.5 tied into 4 players and for less term.

The Leafs have 33.54 tied into 3 players and for less term.

In Dubas' defense he didn't know we'd be going flat cap for years when he gave those bloated deals. When they should be looking more tolerable, they're looking worse as the cap isn't going up as expected when deals consummated.

Tying 40.5 milion into 4 players is a questionable strategy. Tying 33.5+ into 3 is a questionable strategy. It seems to be above reproach for some reason. It is not normal. It had never been done when it was done.

Kyle is the kind of guy who can't say no. He'll kick the can down the road and just deal with it later. This creates all the cap games he plays year after year that some see as masterful when it's necessity due to overpaying talent. These injuries always seem to come at just the right time to make everything work out. I'm sure Muzzin will be all good once the cap goes away in the playoffs. Kase, too.

Our problem is that JT is not playing close to an $11m players. If his line could dominate like the Matthews line, the Leafs would virtually be unstoppable.

 

[riffle]

Our problem is that JT is not playing close to an $11m players. If his line could dominate like the Matthews line, the Leafs would virtually be unstoppable.

Even if he was, it's still ridiculous to have that money invested like that. He should've read the room and saw what was coming instead of paying that to JT.

It will be ironic when Nylander has to go (if he isn't traded beforehand) because Auston will need re-upping after his 5th year, and JT is still cashing that contract. There won't be the money there to re-up Nylander, if he's still here.

We will see what Dubas fans think then, assuming Kyle is even here. Usually, but not always, people who passionately defend Dubas also passionately defend Nylander. Where is the allegiance stronger? To Kyle or Willy? Should be a hoot.

 

[ToneDog]

Even if he was, it's still ridiculous to have that money invested like that. He should've read the room and saw what was coming instead of paying that to JT.

It will be ironic when Nylander has to go (if he isn't traded beforehand) because Auston will need re-upping after his 5th year, and JT is still cashing that contract. There won't be the money there to re-up Nylander, if he's still here.

We will see what Dubas fans think then, assuming Kyle is even here. Usually, but not always, people who passionately defend Dubas also passionately defend Nylander. Where is the allegiance stronger? To Kyle or Willy? Should be a hoot.

If 91 plays close to his AAV you probably don't have to trade anybody.

 

[Menzinger]

Even if he was, it's still ridiculous to have that money invested like that. He should've read the room and saw what was coming instead of paying that to JT.

It will be ironic when Nylander has to go (if he isn't traded beforehand) because Auston will need re-upping after his 5th year, and JT is still cashing that contract. There won't be the money there to re-up Nylander, if he's still here.

We will see what Dubas fans think then, assuming Kyle is even here. Usually, but not always, people who passionately defend Dubas also passionately defend Nylander. Where is the allegiance stronger? To Kyle or Willy? Should be a hoot.

Not necessarily. The league is likely heading to a larger cap increase right as Nylander/Matthews contracts are expiring in 2024-25.

Salary cap could go up in 2024-25, just in time for Maple Leafs and Canucks

The expected salary cap increase for the 2024-25 season could prove to be good timing for the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Vancouver Canucks.

www.sportsnet.ca

If this happens the front office will have more wriggle room to fit guys

 

[riffle]

Not necessarily. The league is likely heading to a larger cap increase right as Nylander/Matthews contracts are expiring in 2024-25.

Salary cap could go up in 2024-25, just in time for Maple Leafs and Canucks

The expected salary cap increase for the 2024-25 season could prove to be good timing for the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Vancouver Canucks.

www.sportsnet.ca

If this happens the front office will have more wriggle room to fit guys

Matthews is going to be at least another 2 million per at that point. That will eat 2 mil just for his extension.

I hope the cap goes up, but hard to trust any projection given what's happened the last few seasons.

 

[TheRumble]

Matthews is going to be at least another 2 million per at that point. That will eat 2 mil just for his extension.

I hope the cap goes up, but hard to trust any projection given what's happened the last few seasons.

The cap is almost certainly going up. The NHL signed a big new TV deal with ESPN and TNT plus there is an extra team in the league to generate more revenues league wide. It'll be over $100 million by the end of the decade.

A once in a century event was the thing that prevented the cap from being at ~$90 million now.

 

[Dreakmur]

I’m not giving credit to Dubas for good ones, and frankly I don’t really give a whole lot of merit to picking what was clearly the best player available, hitting on a puck in the top 5 isn’t the same as hitting on your mid and late round picks. I’m saying as far as everything known they were on the same page with marner and babcock wanted hanifin.
If marner wasn’t on the board they were most likely going to trade back to 7 and take Columbus’ 3 2nds in exchange, probably targeting Werenski or Rantanen.
All I was saying to mess was that the guys he pointed out were all drafted by Hunter and had little to do with Dubas.
Hunter was the supposed draft guru and you defer to that guy more and more the later in the draft you get

Hitting on late picks has more to do with luck and development than skill, especially when previous picks didn’t work out.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Hitting on late picks has more to do with luck and development than skill, especially when previous picks didn’t work out.

Couldn’t disagree more, if you look at what keeps the good teams competitive for long stretches the commonality is good drafting and hitting on your picks aside from lottery picks.
Granted hitting on the top of the draft is equally as important because squandering prime assets is always a losers game, but the elite teams find value later in the draft

 

[Dreakmur]

Couldn’t disagree more, if you look at what keeps the good teams competitive for long stretches the commonality is good drafting and hitting on your picks aside from lottery picks.
Granted hitting on the top of the draft is equally as important because squandering prime assets is always a losers game, but the elite teams find value later in the draft

Getting value late is great, but it’s still heavily based on luck.

 

[Leafsfan74]

The cap is almost certainly going up. The NHL signed a big new TV deal with ESPN and TNT plus there is an extra team in the league to generate more revenues league wide. It'll be over $100 million by the end of the decade.

A once in a century event was the thing that prevented the cap from being at ~$90 million now.

The high scoring regular season is good for ESPN ratings. It will be interesting to see if they can maintain this momentum in the tight checking, sluggish playoff season.

I know this. Probably for the first time in my life I will not watch the playoffs once.(if?) the Leafs are eliminated. I'm only interested in the grind if my home team is still in the race.

My understanding of the way the game changes postseason has determined this stance.

 

[Nylanderthal]

The high scoring regular season is good for ESPN ratings. It will be interesting to see if they can maintain this momentum in the tight checking, sluggish playoff season.

I know this. Probably for the first time in my life I will not watch the playoffs once.(if?) the Leafs are eliminated. I'm only interested in the grind if my home team is still in the race.

My understanding of the way the game changes postseason has determined this stance.

Maybe espn & tnt put the screws to bettman to mandate officials call the game tighter in the post season. It would make for a better product to market in USA and imo a better product overall

 

[Leafsfan74]

Maybe espn & tnt put the screws to bettman to mandate officials call the game tighter in the post season. It would make for a better product to market in USA and imo a better product overall

That would be wishful thinking. The NHL remains a fringe sport on the world stage and most of the U.S.

 

[All Mod Cons]

But Marner was Dubas?

Haha. Was thinking the exact same.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Dubas vision has changed dramatically for the better over time as he went from loving small skilled players with speed to now building and drafting better and wiser. Both bigger and stronger and tougher players has been the trend to make the Leafs more competitive particularly come playoff time.

When Dubas got control as GM then the Matt Martin, Leo Komarov and Roman Polak type players with size and grit had to go. Trading a big tough player that can play like Mason Marchement for a little powder puff smurf like Denis Malgin was the prototypical Dubas move in the past as he loved small skilled players and devalued size, strength and physicality. Now we're adding Simmonds, Clifford, Ritchie --> Lyubushkiin, and when adding smaller players they're ones with grit like Bunting and Blackwell, showing he finally undrstands he is managing a hockey team not a figure skating team.

Instead of drafting Jeremy Bracco and Martin Dzierkals and Dmytro Timoshev, which has no future value, he has turned his focus to Matthew Knies. Now with drafting a Matthew Knies in the 2nd round instead who has size and skill 6-3/210 and some physicality to his game and one you can see inserted into the Leafs top 6 in the near future the goal post of understanding have changed. Under Dubas in the past getting him to draft a player over 6' with any degree of grit, was like pulling teeth.

Dubas vision has changed dramatically for the better over time as he went from loving small skilled players with speed to now building and drafting better and wiser. Both bigger and stronger and tougher players has been the trend to make the Leafs more competitive particularly come playoff time.

When Dubas got control as GM then the Matt Martin, Leo Komarov and Roman Polak type players with size and grit had to go. Trading a big tough player that can play like Mason Marchement for a little powder puff smurf like Denis Malgin was the prototypical Dubas move in the past as he loved small skilled players and devalued size, strength and physicality. Now we're adding Simmonds, Clifford, Ritchie --> Lyubushkiin, and when adding smaller players they're ones with grit like Bunting and Blackwell, showing he finally undrstands he is managing a hockey team not a figure skating team.

Instead of drafting Jeremy Bracco and Martin Dzierkals and Dmytro Timoshev, which has no future value, he has turned his focus to Matthew Knies. Now with drafting a Matthew Knies in the 2nd round instead who has size and skill 6-3/210 and some physicality to his game and one you can see inserted into the Leafs top 6 in the near future the goal post of understanding have changed. Under Dubas in the past getting him to draft a player over 6' with any degree of grit, was like pulling teeth.

He has definitely shown to have changed to a more balanced roster construction of skill and grit as opposed to 4 skilled lines but I think some your examples are completely justified as to why we moved on from them.

Komorov was on serious decline and was making 2.9M. He was not worth keeping around. I love Matt Martin and he rejuvenated his career going back to the island but he was making 2.5M on the 4th line and Babcock wasn't playing him. Polak just plain sucked.

The Marchment debate has been beaten to death but I don't think Dubas traded him because he didn't like toughness. I think he was just seeing what most of us saw in his stint with the Leafs and that was a guy who didn't look like he could keep up at the NHL level. So he traded him for a player who has fairly decent pedigree as a prospect and a guy that still had decent potential to be an NHLer. I also don't believe he just specifically targets "smurfs". He looks for market inefficiencies and targets players with high end skill and IQ regardless of size (think Martin St.Louis). I liked Marchment on the Marlies and wish he was here now but he did not look like a player here and it seemed like a good gamble.

As for the drafting, same thing I just said about him caring about upside regardless of size. He has said as much. So far it seems to working as we have a deep pool with a lot of players looking like they aren't too far away from playing in the big league. Not sure if you realize that he didn't draft Bracco, Dzierkals and Timashov or you were just using them as an example? As for Knies, I don't think he was just targeting a player with size. The scouts said he was too good of a player to pass up as he had a good all around skill set. He was another example of a player that fell for whatever reason and he and the scouting team capitalized. He just happened yo be 6'3. Many of the players he has drafted were ranked higher than they went, mostly due to size and so far its looked like It's paying off for us. The draft is where you need to hit on upside that will come cheap on ELCs. You can always get size and grit for cheap in FA.

I should also add that even alot of the undersized players he has drafted have some bite to their game i.e.

Robertson
Hirvonen
Niemela
Tverberg
Schingoethe
Holmberg
Abramov
Sandin

Also you make it sound like he just straight up doesn't like big players. He has signed more big players than "smurfs" , both at the NHL and AHL levels.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Speaking to things Kyle has gotten wrong is not "vilifying" him

But you're not speaking to things Dubas has gotten wrong. You've largely just made incorrect statements about the team, the players on the team, Dubas, the things he has done, etc., and then dismissed all of the endless good to focus exclusively on playoff series wins - something you haven't had any consistency about when it comes to other teams and GMs.

To you, it is not okay for someone to question him.

Completely incorrect. There's just a massive difference between "questioning him" for legitimate things and what many here are doing.

Is Nylander soft?

No. He's not somebody that's going to go in and fight or throw bone-crushing hits, but that doesn't make somebody soft.

5-year deal for Auston is not "good".

There are both positives and negatives to a 5 year term - the most common post-ELC term for a player of that caliber. We have him locked in for less term right now, but it reduced the cap hit to allow us to keep all of our top guys and have more space to build around, on top of it ensuring that the next contract wouldn't stretch into significant decline years.

11 million for JT's production is a massive overpayment and will only depreciate.

11 million for a UFA Tavares was not a "massive overpayment" at all (which is why you saw multiple teams offering even more), and he's maintaining quite well.

The Leafs lost to the 18th team in the NHL and the 6th in the Metro and you can't say that is not good

Of course it's not good that we lost in the playoffs. I'd much rather we had won. But representing it in such a misleading way, and ignoring all context and the actual reasons we lost, and ignoring everything else about this team and what they've done and how we're set up now and into the future, all because you're upset about the fact that it happened, doesn't do anybody any good.