Kyle Dubas discussion II

[Dekes For Days]

Mike Babcock was fired after his underdog Leafs lost to Washington, Boston and Boston.

No he wasn't. Babcock kept his job after all 3 of those playoff losses, and despite years of ineffective coaching practices and toxic behaviour towards his players. He was fired when he had us in 25th place in the league the next year.

Keefe and Dubas teams didn't even make the playoffs in Year 1.

Keefe and Dubas have made the playoffs every single year.

 

[ToneDog]

Nothing alike on two fronts

Teams give up comparable value at the deadline all the time, and only one wins each year. Unless you're completely against all rentals (some are) you expect that a GM of repeat playoff team is going to have some asset attrition. Just can't spend the team into the basement. And need to keep a steady pipeline.

The value lost and magnitude of the mistake are not at all the same. The cumulative value of everything Dubas spent last season is closer to the Knight pick (32nd) alone than 2nd overall PLUS 9th overall PLUS 32nd overall

The comparison was more to do with reading the landscape incorrectly. The Kessel trade was 5x worse although Kessel produced. We got how many games out of Foligno??

 

[hotpaws]

me pointing out Lou's faults is not an endorsement of Kyle Dubas. This forum is so toxic

I agree , i just wanted to keep the record straight

his worst contact was giving Komo 4 yrs but i'm happy someone gave Leo his retirement deal , love uncle Leo , lol

 

[Gary Nylund]

One thing I don't understand about those who think it is crazy to discuss firing Kyle Dubas is this...

Mike Babcock was fired after his underdog Leafs lost to Washington, Boston and Boston. Not favored in any of those series and fans were livid they'd seen their team lose 3 series in a row.

Keefe and Dubas teams didn't even make the playoffs in Year 1. They lost in a "play in" not "playoff" series and were favored vs. CBJ. The next season they followed up with blowing a 3-1 series lead after finishing 1st in the Canadian division to a team that finished 18th in the league. Babcock's teams did objectively "better" than the Keefe/Dubas teams. Losing 3 tough series when you're inferior, vs. blowing 2 series when you're superior is not debatable. Yes, there is the excuse Keefe's team didn't have a TC with Keefe, but Dubas was still there.

Yes, you can argue Babcock's firing was about other things, but the fact remains he did not win a series and was fired. Why would you continue on with Kyle if his team drops yet another 1st round series?

If Dubas and company can't win one this season, that's 3 years in a row of losing. Not sure how you justify there not being a major shakeup unless you believe in the long game and winning by hopeful attrition of Boston, Tampa and now Florida.

I like Kyle Dubas. I love winning a whole lot more. And, winning doesn't mean in the regular season. For his sake, I hope he gets a series win and ends speculation about his job security. If the Leafs lose again, I can't fathom how his firing isn't at least a very debatable topic.

I think this completely fair. I think most people are leaning in the direction of saying Dubas has done a good job and if we lose, it's on the players and so on but in the end, it's his team, he's the guy who chose these players and if we lose again, I don't think it's 100% a stone cold lock that he keeps his job without there even being some discussion about it.

 

[4thline]

The comparison was more to do with reading the landscape incorrectly. The Kessel trade was 5x worse although Kessel produced. We got how many games out of Foligno??

That was the first difference. A division leading team spending at the deadline only to disappoint in the playoffs is not in the same realm of misread as a team coming off a 7th last finish trading it's next two 1st rounders based on nothing but hubris.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Translates to:
Leaf fans happy with the state of the team and prospect pool are willing to overlook this.

You get more leeway for spending futures if you're able to keep the system in great shape despite of it.

51 win / 108 point team (and counting) 3 top 50 prospects AFTER losing one of the top dogs to friggen brain tumour.

Yup.. Spend whatever assets you want if you keep filling the pipeline with good drafting and signings.

Conversely you could have your team against the cap without a single star signed (requiring an early retirement), a bottom third prospect pool and your first draft pick in a deep draft at #90. Takes a special kind of something to not see what direction that is going.

 

[TheDoldrums]

One thing I don't understand about those who think it is crazy to discuss firing Kyle Dubas is this...

Mike Babcock was fired after his underdog Leafs lost to Washington, Boston and Boston. Not favored in any of those series and fans were livid they'd seen their team lose 3 series in a row.

Keefe and Dubas teams didn't even make the playoffs in Year 1. They lost in a "play in" not "playoff" series and were favored vs. CBJ. The next season they followed up with blowing a 3-1 series lead after finishing 1st in the Canadian division to a team that finished 18th in the league. Babcock's teams did objectively "better" than the Keefe/Dubas teams. Losing 3 tough series when you're inferior, vs. blowing 2 series when you're superior is not debatable. Yes, there is the excuse Keefe's team didn't have a TC with Keefe, but Dubas was still there.

Yes, you can argue Babcock's firing was about other things, but the fact remains he did not win a series and was fired. Why would you continue on with Kyle if his team drops yet another 1st round series?

If Dubas and company can't win one this season, that's 3 years in a row of losing. Not sure how you justify there not being a major shakeup unless you believe in the long game and winning by hopeful attrition of Boston, Tampa and now Florida.

I like Kyle Dubas. I love winning a whole lot more. And, winning doesn't mean in the regular season. For his sake, I hope he gets a series win and ends speculation about his job security. If the Leafs lose again, I can't fathom how his firing isn't at least a very debatable topic.

To me GM's don't deserve much of the blame for postseason failures. I'd say that about any GM, not just the Toronto ones. I think their job is to build a good team and I think the length of the regular season is far more indicative of team quality than the short sample of a playoffs. I don't think it's Dubas' fault the Leafs keep losing elimination games, I think he's putting the team in a good position to win and the players are letting him down. And maybe he'll have to be more proactive about moving a core guy if they fail again, but I still think overall the organization keeps getting better each year.

 

[SprDaVE]

I see we are back to Lou vs Kyle. LOL. I see arguments for both sides but until Kyle wins a series (0 for 3 and failed to close out all 3 series), embarrassing belittling Lou who has 2 cup rings and how many series win with the Isles to prop up Kyle.

Kyle is at the top of the world today as his team is top 5 in the standings but in the end Kyle will be judged by his playoff success and he is currently at zero. I'd wait until we win a series before attacking Lou.

Pretty normal to compare both. Lamoriello was replaced by Dubas. Generally people that dislike Dubas and anything he does is because they were unanimously in love with Lamoriello's managerial skills and demeanor. A GMs worth shouldn't only include playoff success, but player management, drafting and regular season success.

One of the things that were brought up over the last few years is how Dubas took Lamoriello's team and made it regress in the standings. That's the only thing I could read in the off-season in the early years of Dubas taking over for Lamoriello. I think that can be rested to bed now since Dubas will now be known as the GM that constructed the best Leafs team ever in the regular season.

Let's just hope the players can finally reward the fans and Dubas with playoff success, since Dubas has covered the other parts of his job to elite levels. Not sure Dubas can do more than what he's done. He revamped the coaching, forwards, defense and even the goaltending. The first 3 have been elite levels, whereas the later has been pretty inconsistent.

 

[zeke]

alarms have gone off and it's only a matter of time before the crew activates but i'll run a little interference for you since i have time this morning

still can't believe someone would trade a 1st plus plus for a washed up injured Foligno , lol , and a 3rd for a 3rd string rental goalie and late picks for Hutton and Nash , lol , all these assets out the door and not one of them gave us any value in the playoffs

can't believe how short sighted these moves were and how much we're going to pay for them in the future

It takes a real feat of bias and/or ignorance to look at the Leafs' current roster, contracts, and system and convince yourself that it exhibits short-term strategy....when it's clearly set up better for longterm success than any other org in hockey,

Not only is the team elite currently, but unlike the other elite teams it actually is set up to be elite for a long, long time. You couldn't get find a better example of longterm thinking than this team.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The comparison was more to do with reading the landscape incorrectly. The Kessel trade was 5x worse although Kessel produced. We got how many games out of Foligno??

Foligno played so few games because he got injured after being acquired. That's not reading the landscape incorrectly. Whether or not you agree with acquiring Foligno specifically, spending a low 1st with largely known placement (a cost that multiple other teams were offering for the same player) as a great team entering the playoffs is very different from spending two likely high 1sts and a 2nd as a rebuilding team that can't even make the playoffs.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

You have to view those contracts in the context in which they were signed. Those contracts only became problems when the new GM had a new plan. Signing Tavares ended the rebuild and warped our cap distribution.

The Zaitsev contract was a too long, but 4.5 for a good second pair defensemen isn’t a contract you try to unload unless you have other cap problems. He would actually be really nice to have right about now - certainly much better than Lyubushkin or Holl.

Marleau was a player that we would have helped the Leafs in that third year. That was supposed to be the last year of the rebuild, and he still have a lot to give off the ice. 6 million only because a burden after you sign an 11 million dollar second line center.

That Marleau contract was always bad and the other core 4 shouldn't change that. That's not even looking at it with hindsight. I don't think there was a single person in leaf land that thought that was a good idea. Didn't mind bringing him in but what logical reason is there to give a 38 yr old 3 years x 6M? At most he should've been around 3.5x2

We've been bringing in vets like Spezza, Jumbo, Simmonds, for under 2M. Which is appropriate for aging players on the decline.

The Zaitsev deal I won't rip on as much because I don't think we saw him falling off as much as he did with the season he had. My only issue with it at the time was the 7 yrs. Seemed a little premature to give him that length based off one season. Similar to what Chiarelli gave Koskinen in Edmonton.

But that Marleau deal, WTF was he thinking!?

 

[Gutchecktime]

what i also like is when they say Dubie is playing the long game while Lou sold the future for the short term when it's Dubie who has traded as much if not more futures . lol

and it's funny how some ignore Dubie inherited M and M , Willie/Rielly among others while Lou walked into Barzal and according to the Tavrares fan club a group of echl'ers he had to carry on his back for a decade

He was Co-GM when they drafted Marner and kicked off the lottery year with his trade of Kessel. He played a part in both.

 

[The Podium]

Kyle's fanboys are trying to forget this. Every GM makes mistakes. Kyle is lucky nobody holds him accountable because MLSEL prints money. Try burying Ritchie and Mrazeks contracts if you are a GM of a budget team.

Yet very few GMs in Leafs history actively utilize their financial powers.

Yes he has more freedom on the Leafs, but not everyone is savvy enough to exploit those advantages.

 

[TheRumble]

You are not wrong. The error was misjudging the team that he went all in on. Kind of like Burkie thinking Kessel was the mission g piece and giving up 2 1sts and a 2nd.

Dubas didn't misjudge the team at all. I didn't like the trades but he was justified in thinking it was a good time to go all in. Ultimately it was the players who let the team and themselves down. That division was weak and the Leafs were gonna have two rounds facing terrible teams. It was the perfect time to go all in. Again, not a fan of the deals he made but the rationale behind overpaying wasn't a bad one. Just wish he didn't go after Foligno.

 

[ToneDog]

Foligno played so few games because he got injured after being acquired. That's not reading the landscape incorrectly. Whether or not you agree with acquiring Foligno specifically, spending a low 1st with largely known placement (a cost that multiple other teams were offering for the same player) as a great team entering the playoffs is very different from spending two likely high 1sts and a 2nd as a rebuilding team that can't even make the playoffs.

Reading the landscape is going all in on a team that was clearly not worthy. Kyle stood pat on the team that lost to Ayres which was the correct move.

 

[ToneDog]

That Marleau contract was always bad and the other core 4 shouldn't change that. That's not even looking at it with hindsight. I don't think there was a single person in leaf land that thought that was a good idea. Didn't mind bringing him in but what logical reason is there to give a 38 yr old 3 years x 6M? At most he should've been around 3.5x2

We've been bringing in vets like Spezza, Jumbo, Simmonds, for under 2M. Which is appropriate for aging players on the decline.

The Zaitsev deal I won't rip on as much because I don't think we saw him falling off as much as he did with the season he had. My only issue with it at the time was the 7 yrs. Seemed a little premature to give him that length based off one season. Similar to what Chiarelli gave Koskinen in Edmonton.

But that Marleau deal, WTF was he thinking!?

I think babs wanted Marleau but the buck stops at Lou.

 

[Byron Bitz]

When evaluating Dubas, rather than break his moves down one by one where you will find a mix of good and bad moves I think it’s best to take a simplistic approach to this. He inherited arguably the most promising young team in the league and hasn’t won a playoff series yet, that is unacceptable. This year it’s do or die. Either you win a series or your gone. I understand that there’s no shame in losing to Tampa but you had your chances against easier teams like MTL and Columbus and blew it so now you are do or die against Tampa.

 

[hotpaws]

It takes a real feat of bias and/or ignorance to look at the Leafs' current roster, contracts, and system and convince yourself that it exhibits short-term strategy....when it's clearly set up better for longterm success than any other org in hockey,

Not only is the team elite currently, but unlike the other elite teams it actually is set up to be elite for a long, long time. You couldn't get find a better example of longterm thinking than this team.

Muzzin/Gio/Tavares scream future long term success ?

I'm sure every new GM hire would love to inherit barely 20 year old elite players and then have many of the fan base give him/her/they credit for having a long term strategy , lol

 

[The Podium]

You have to view those contracts in the context in which they were signed. Those contracts only became problems when the new GM had a new plan. Signing Tavares ended the rebuild and warped our cap distribution.

The Zaitsev contract was a too long, but 4.5 for a good second pair defensemen isn’t a contract you try to unload unless you have other cap problems. He would actually be really nice to have right about now - certainly much better than Lyubushkin or Holl.

Marleau was a player that we would have helped the Leafs in that third year. That was supposed to be the last year of the rebuild, and he still have a lot to give off the ice. 6 million only because a burden after you sign an 11 million dollar second line center.

Zaitsev is literally the worst D in the league

I know people get triggered when we post stats, so here are the opinions of Ottawa’s fans that watch him nightly

Player Discussion - Nikita Zaitsev (RD)

doesnt even look like a bottom pairing dman this season. Just terrible

hfboards.mandatory.com

Tavares isn’t the reason Zaitsev had to be shipped off and it is actually hilarious that you think he’d be better than Holl or Bush.

He is literally providing negative value for Ottawa

Marleau asked to be traded, his family moved back to SJ before JT was even signed. Maybe he saw the writing on the wall, but his play fell off completely and was barely NHL caliber in the seasons that followed his tenure with the Leafs.

 

[zeke]

That Marleau contract was always bad and the other core 4 shouldn't change that. That's not even looking at it with hindsight. I don't think there was a single person in leaf land that thought that was a good idea. Didn't mind bringing him in but what logical reason is there to give a 38 yr old 3 years x 6M? At most he should've been around 3.5x2

We've been bringing in vets like Spezza, Jumbo, Simmonds, for under 2M. Which is appropriate for aging players on the decline.

The Zaitsev deal I won't rip on as much because I don't think we saw him falling off as much as he did with the season he had. My only issue with it at the time was the 7 yrs. Seemed a little premature to give him that length based off one season. Similar to what Chiarelli gave Koskinen in Edmonton.

But that Marleau deal, WTF was he thinking!?

For the record - the Zaitsev contract was awful on day one according to the analytics. Of course back then poor dumb zeke was skeptical of the analytics and thought they weren't accurate when it came to Zaitsev. That was dumb. Lesson learned.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

One thing I don't understand about those who think it is crazy to discuss firing Kyle Dubas is this...

Mike Babcock was fired after his underdog Leafs lost to Washington, Boston and Boston. Not favored in any of those series and fans were livid they'd seen their team lose 3 series in a row.

Keefe and Dubas teams didn't even make the playoffs in Year 1. They lost in a "play in" not "playoff" series and were favored vs. CBJ. The next season they followed up with blowing a 3-1 series lead after finishing 1st in the Canadian division to a team that finished 18th in the league. Babcock's teams did objectively "better" than the Keefe/Dubas teams. Losing 3 tough series when you're inferior, vs. blowing 2 series when you're superior is not debatable. Yes, there is the excuse Keefe's team didn't have a TC with Keefe, but Dubas was still there.

Yes, you can argue Babcock's firing was about other things, but the fact remains he did not win a series and was fired. Why would you continue on with Kyle if his team drops yet another 1st round series?

If Dubas and company can't win one this season, that's 3 years in a row of losing. Not sure how you justify there not being a major shakeup unless you believe in the long game and winning by hopeful attrition of Boston, Tampa and now Florida.

I like Kyle Dubas. I love winning a whole lot more. And, winning doesn't mean in the regular season. For his sake, I hope he gets a series win and ends speculation about his job security. If the Leafs lose again, I can't fathom how his firing isn't at least a very debatable topic.

I would say start by looking at whether your club is improving across the board. There are many metrics where the club is getting better and better.

I would also advise that you consider this has all happened inside a pandemic where you are dealing with a flat cap and short seasons. This is literally the first full actual season they have had (even it isn't yet a normal season).

Montreal was inexcusable. Flat out crap. Putting any weight on Columbus is just foolish. The entire league was off for longer than the offseason. You literally got preseason as a playoff.

While his firing could be debatable, I suspect he would be given one chance to make a big move (ie core move).

 

[hotpaws]

He was Co-GM when they drafted Marner and kicked off the lottery year with his trade of Kessel. He played a part in both.

Dubas played no part in the Leafs selecting Marner regardless how desperate Dubies fan club are to give him credit ,

 

[zeke]

Muzzin/Gio/Tavares scream future long term success ?

I'm sure every new GM hire would love to inherit barely 20 year old elite players and then have many of the fan base give him/her/they credit for having a long term strategy , lol

Yes, Tavares and Muzzin's deals ending at age 34, when every other elite team is on the hook for many more mid to late 30s contract years, is a perfect example of the Leafs longterm thinking.

As is adding a player as good as Gio with zero term to worry about.

 

[SprDaVE]

When evaluating Dubas, rather than break his moves down one by one where you will find a mix of good and bad moves I think it’s best to take a simplistic approach to this. He inherited arguably the most promising young team in the league and hasn’t won a playoff series yet, that is unacceptable. This year it’s do or die. Either you win a series or your gone. I understand that there’s no shame in losing to Tampa but you had your chances against easier teams like MTL and Columbus and blew it so now you are do or die against Tampa.

I understand needing to fire the GM for the lack of playoff success. Someone needs to take the bullet.

But fans have to understand that this team can be in such a worst spot in terms of quality. It could be SO much worse in a lot of ways. Playoff success will happen. I'd rather give Dubas a lot of leash to let him keep tinkering this team. It will happen eventually.

but I'm with you... it's extremely frustrating watching last couple season go down the toilet.

 

[Damisoph]

He was Co-GM when they drafted Marner and kicked off the lottery year with his trade of Kessel. He played a part in both.

Mitch was clearly a Hunter pick. It doesn't matter what corner Dubas was in, I don't think his opinion carried much weight at that time compared to Lou or Babs. Correct me if I'm wrong but I've heard Babs wanted Noah Hanifin but obviously Hunter's choice won out. Thankfully.