Kyle Dubas discussion II

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Erm, what? :huh:

Marner was on the team already before Dubas was named GM. He was a 19-goal, 61-point forward as a rookie, and he’s now at 94 points and counting this year so under normal circumstances it would be natural to expect the team to have improved over that time.
Mitch was selected while Dubas & Hunter co-Gm’ed that summer. I’m sure lots here will bellow “SuReLy hEs a HuNtER PiCk” and while that way be true due to hunter handling the actual draft and Kyle running trades I don’t think anyone could reasonably argue that Kyle would’ve gone another route at 4 aside from possibly the proposed trade back where we got all of Columbus’ 2nd rounders plus 7 for 4. Then taken werenski dermott aho and Bracco and Konecny with the late first they ended up trading back for dermott Bracco picks.
Marner is exactly the kind of player hotpaws, you, and mess and all the other miserable and transparent individuals on here complain that Kyle had taken too many chances on in the past.
 
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Mitch was selected while Dubas & Hunter co-Gm’ed that summer. I’m sure lots here will bellow “SuReLy hEs a HuNtER PiCk” and while that way be true due to hunter handling the actual draft and Kyle running trades I don’t think anyone could reasonably argue that Kyle would’ve gone another route at 4 aside from possibly the proposed trade back where we got all of Columbus’ 2nd rounders plus 7 for 4. Then taken werenski dermott aho and Bracco and Konecny with the late first they ended up trading back for dermott Bracco picks.
Marner is exactly the kind of player hotpaws, you, and mess and all the other miserable and transparent individuals on here complain that Kyle takes too many chances on in the past.
Marner actually almost definitely was a Hunter pick since he played for Hunters ohl team, but it’s already been reported Dubas and Hunter wanted Marner while Babcock wanted Hanifin (who remember, was supposed to be an extremely solid Dman, so a great prospect in his own right).

The problem with discussing drafts in hindsight is lots of the “consensus opinions” change over years. I mean, just look at what people have said about Liljegren since 2016, and yes I know he was drafted in 2017, that’s the point.
 
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I hope so because Korshkov doesn't at all align with the idea that Dubas wanted DeBrincat. And on the flip side, if he told Shanahan to take Korshkov, then Dubas would've also had say in Marner and Liljegren which no one has ever given him, it doesn't just work with the mishits or the good hits depending whether you like Dubas or not. Saying he got one pick and that one pick was brutal but doesn't align with his usual MO is like shifting the narrative. I'm all for believing he picked Korshkov, it seems at least somewhat plausible, but then by that measure he would've also had a much bigger hand in 2015 and 2017 then anyone has said. For example, why did we go Dermott over Aho when it's been reported Aho is considered? Kind of just a weird, shifting narrative. Narratives are cool, but they shouldn't shift.

FYI for context, at the time I was avidly following the draft, especially CHL prospects and was PISSED we picked Korshkov over all of DeBrincat, Kyrou, Girard, Raddysh and Hart. I figured that was on both Dubas and Hunter.
Mirtle pimping Dubas isn’t anything new and a blogger speculating means as much as our opinion .

My point however about Dubie drafting based on his beloved inefficiencies stands and is reflected in his actual picks .

Also I find it funny how he wanted every gem before he was GM yet I don’t see any home runs in since he’s been HM . Maybe Knieves is the pick , we’ll have to wait and see .

and surely he would taken the steal in the 5th rd instead of taking Big Mac Holliwell a few picks earlier in the 4th rd if his publicist Mirtle opinion the the Dube is a draft genius is to be believed .
 
Its a results oriented business not a transactional review, so like you I agree it will come done to how this team performs in the playoffs that will be the ultimate measure of GM performance.

Dubas walked into the job inheriting a 100+ point playoff team, and a hard faught 7 game playoff round #1 loss to Boston, while being handed the keys to perhaps the Leafs team's all-time franchise best player Auston Matthews and a perennial 50 goal scorer from his predecessor to build upon.
Yes he did. But like every gm, faces issues with the cap, player development and intangibles. I've been very critical at times but will give credit that he seems to have been able to pivot and find solutions for some of the challenges the team has faced.

All comes down to the playoffs though.
 
Mirtle pimping Dubas isn’t anything new and a blogger speculating means as much as our opinion .

My point however about Dubie drafting based on his beloved inefficiencies stands and is reflected in his actual picks .

Also I find it funny how he wanted every gem before he was GM yet I don’t see any home runs in since he’s been HM . Maybe Knieves is the pick , we’ll have to wait and see .

and surely he would taken the steal in the 5th rd instead of taking Big Mac Holliwell a few picks earlier in the 4th rd if his publicist Mirtle opinion the the Dube is a draft genius is to be believed .
Uh his drafting records been pretty damn good so far and he’s already been credited with guys like Nick Robertson Topi Niemela Nick Abbruzzese and obviously Matt Knies, all of whom would go far higher in a redraft. That’s on top of Sean Durzi who looks great in LA but was traded, Pontus Holmberg who was the SHL MVP last year, Ryan Tverberg who came out of nowhere as a 7th round pick to nearly make team Canada as an NCAA player, Filip Kral who was regarded as a steal even at the draft, Rasmus Sandin who’s outperformed most of the players drafted before him (and I more than hated that pick at the time). You’re kind of cherry picking the wrong stuff to build the idea that Dubas sucks. He’s very widely regarded as a great drafting/talent spotting GM. Yes Hollowell pick was bad, but also he has performed about on par with the expectation.

If you want to build of that Dubas sucks, go after the fact that he tends to really like players with mediocre at best speed for some weird reason, or that his goalie drafting is very average, or that he didn’t get a pick for Hyman, or the Kadri trade. There’s many many better things then his drafting. If we fired him today he would be scooped up extremely fast, and we know that because the Avalanche already tried to steal him before. The draft is probably the best example of Dubas’s ability as a GM since he’s outpacing almost every other GM there.

I’ve disliked almost every one of Dubas’s drafts at the time and been proven wrong each time.

Edit: the only regulars picked after Hollowell by the way are Yegor Sharangovich and Phillip Kurashev. An overager, and an undersized forward. His biggest miss so far is BY FAR Riley Stotts. That pick was horrible.
 
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Uh his drafting records been pretty damn good so far and he’s already been credited with guys like Nick Robertson Topi Niemela Nick Abbruzzese and obviously Matt Knies, all of whom would go far higher in a redraft. That’s on top of Sean Durzi who looks great in LA but was traded, Pontus Holmberg who was the SHL MVP last year, Ryan Tverberg who came out of nowhere as a 7th round pick to nearly make team Canada as an NCAA player, Filip Kral who was regarded as a steal even at the draft, Rasmus Sandin who’s outperformed most of the players drafted before him (and I more than hated that pick at the time). You’re kind of cherry picking the wrong stuff to build the idea that Dubas sucks. He’s very widely regarded as a great drafting/talent spotting GM. Yes Hollowell pick was bad, but also he has performed about on par with the expectation.

If you want to build of that Dubas sucks, go after the fact that he tends to really like players with mediocre at best speed for some weird reason, or that his goalie drafting is very average, or that he didn’t get a pick for Hyman, or the Kadri trade. There’s many many better things then his drafting. If we fired him today he would be scooped up extremely fast, and we know that because the Avalanche already tried to steal him before. The draft is probably the best example of Dubas’s ability as a GM since he’s outpacing almost every other GM there.

I’ve disliked almost every one of Dubas’s drafts at the time and been proven wrong each time.
I hope his drafts are as good as people say but that remains to be seen . Right now there’s two of his players in the league and ours is a D that’s weak at D .

My point was however that when Mirtle and others keep saying he wanted every prospect who became a star that we passed on why didn’t he take the home run that went a few picks after Holliwell ?

yea he probably will be scooped up since he’s a one man scouting dept and his new team will save quite a bit not having to hire any scouts lol
 
I hope his drafts are as good as people say but that remains to be seen . Right now there’s two of his players in the league and ours is a D that’s weak at D .

My point was however that when Mirtle and others keep saying he wanted every prospect who became a star that we passed on why didn’t he take the home run that went a few picks after Holliwell ?

yea he probably will be scooped up since he’s a one man scouting dept and his new team will save quite a bit not having to hire any scouts lol

Still way too early to see how many of these prospects turn out, but you can see a lot of non-Mirtle pieces that have the Leafs prospect pool ranked fairly high for an elite team.

I think one way to look at it is, how many players would have been taken much higher in their drafts in a re-draft today?

Sandin
Knies
Holmberg
Durzi(no longer with the org)
Robertson
Abruzzese
Tverberg
Ovchinnikov
Niemela
Hirvonen
Voit

And some of these players would have gone MUCH higher than where they were taken.

Then you look at the players acquired through FA, Mikheyev, Barabanov(no longer with the org), Steeves.
 
Dubas was at the helm in the Marner draft. You can't inherit something while you are at the helm.
That’s not correct. He and Hunter were co-interim GMs and then Lou Lam came later when Shanahan felt Dubas wasn’t ready to take over.
 
I don’t see how this contradicts him at all.
At the helm suggests solely in charge ie. Captain of the Ship.
Obviously he wasn’t solely in charge and was in some minds demoted shortly after when Lou Lam arrived.
All this wouldn’t be so confusing if people would forgo the agenda and be honest.
 
Did I write that Lou drafted him? Also while Hunter probably handled the actual draft, I agree with the sentiment that Marner was a fairly obvious pick.

You wrote that he was here before Dubas (see below)… he wasn’t

He also wasn’t the fairly obvious or consensus pick at the time. These boards alone were fairly split between he and Hanifin. Even the front office had an internal debate about it.

Erm, what? :huh:

Marner was on the team already before Dubas was named GM. He was a 19-goal, 61-point forward as a rookie, and he’s now at 94 points and counting this year so under normal circumstances it would be natural to expect the team to have improved over that time.
 
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I hope his drafts are as good as people say but that remains to be seen . Right now there’s two of his players in the league and ours is a D that’s weak at D .

My point was however that when Mirtle and others keep saying he wanted every prospect who became a star that we passed on why didn’t he take the home run that went a few picks after Holliwell ?

yea he probably will be scooped up since he’s a one man scouting dept and his new team will save quite a bit not having to hire any scouts lol
A) Because there haven't been any yet, that much is simple
B) Because no one ever said he wanted all the stars. Bemstrom is hardly a star. He wanted Bracco, Bracco flopped. DeBrincat was great but that was also very easy to predict at the draft, the guy was downright dominant and should've been a top 15 pick. Even every casual scout knew that. The only ones argued are Marner, who he did take, and Hunter has also gotten credit for, Aho, which has been well documented already by Babcock himself, and Bemstrom who is not a star.

As far as NHLers from his drafts:
2018: Sandin and Durzi have already made it, Holmberg and Kral are very close and almost definitely will make it, SDA is a wildcard. But, 2 have played. Of note here, we also signed Curtis Douglas who was taken right near Hollowell.
2019: Robertson has played, Abruzzese has played, Kokkonen most likely will play and Abramov who's a wildcard, nonetheless, 2 have played.
2020: No players yet, but only 16 players picked after Amirov have played so far. This draft is charting well, Niemela is a top prospect and broke records this year, Hirvonen looks great, Villeneuve and Ovchinnikov are also already signed which is huge. Tverberg is a huge prospect for us, Bunting/Hyman like but with even more physicality, would be shocked if he never plays. Amirov would've almost definitely gotten a game at least by now, but has cancer unfortunately. 0 have played, should be 1, but the world is cruel.
2021: Knies would have played if he signed, Voit is tracking amazingly, both look like huge steals, Peksa pick is a huge WTF moment. 0 have played, 1 could but went back to school. Only 7 players in this whole draft have played so far, only 2 of which have more than 10 games, an undersized forward, and an overage (see the theme?).

So 4 players have played in 4 drafts, with Kral, Holmberg, Kokkonen, Amirov, Knies and Niemela all right on the edge, of which 144 total players have gotten at a minimum 1 NHL game. The Leafs have roughly 3% of the players that have made the NHL from those drafts, as a playoff team, and are roughly 3% of the league. Once their bubble guys get games, those numbers increase dramatically. They've had 30 picks in that time, About 13% of their picks have already gotten NHL games, ranging from D+1 to D+4, with a bunch on the bubble. That's a good number.

I'm really just not seeing the argument since it's been disproven so many ways already, including your own contradictions. I've given you numbers, articles and opinions, that should be sufficient. Go after something other than drafting, and then you have a better argument. At least the goalie discourse in here the other day was much more valid. Dubas has a poor goalie record.
 
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He is sticking with the core and can continue to do so until they win or the core gets enough kicks at the can or he can decide to move on from the core.

If I am Dubas; and I know I effed up big time with the core contracts - I still do what Dubas is doing. That is, hold on to the core.

Players like Matthews and Marner are really hard to get even with top5 picks. Just look around the league. Nylander is a solid core piece that I wouldn't move at all unless there is some serious overpayment by someone or Nylander asks for a ridiculous increment on his next contract.

Tavares is the one contract that is hard to swallow because with him we have three 11 million contracts. That is too rich. If Tavares can raise his game in the playoffs that becomes easy to stomach. TBD though....
 
When you’re left with arguing semantics like “is the co-gm in charge” you’re losing the argument
When all your left is to spin your previous statement you know you’ve lost your argument .

You said he was in charge and now your backtracking when you were corrected .
 
If I am Dubas; and I know I effed up big time with the core contracts - I still do what Dubas is doing. That is, hold on to the core.

Players like Matthews and Marner are really hard to get even with top5 picks. Just look around the league. Nylander is a solid core piece that I wouldn't move at all unless there is some serious overpayment by someone or Nylander asks for a ridiculous increment on his next contract.

Tavares is the one contract that is hard to swallow because with him we have three 11 million contracts. That is too rich. If Tavares can raise his game in the playoffs that becomes easy to stomach. TBD though....
Tavares deal is definitely the worst but also was the one Dubas actually got a deal on. I hate UFA contracts man. Such a stupid concept that you get paid for past performance instead of projected future ability. JT is probably an 8.5 million dollar player, which is great, but mannnn I’d love another 2.5M for a real goalie or winger upgrade.
 
But is that an open question in light of unforeseen events (ie C-19 era NHL cap) that followed? Including perhaps, the development of our players commensurate with their contracts?

It's interesting because Matthews, Marner and Nylander are either at value or better value than their contracts - now. I don't think that's disputed.

When the contracts were signed obviously there was (appropriate) discomfort given comparisons with the league's (then) better players.

Contract negotiations anticipate future contribution. I think Dubas was right in that respect. Perhaps we're angry at the stage at which those contracts were negotiated.

Playoffs oncoming, and as you noted: TBD...to a point, I'd add.

I do acknowledge that covid was an unforeseen event but IMO such events should be in considerations when negotiating contracts. Btw by that I mean if the League revenue goes down what is the impact on CAP. League revenue can go down for many reasons - covid is just one reason.

Second, I expect our GM to be be negotiating for future contributions too but at the same time I expect our GM to be mindful of relative NHL competition (in Division/Conference/League). What I mean by this? -> to be mindful of how other teams are shaping up given the contracts being paid for their core and what may be left over for them to upgrade and be a direct competition to the Leafs.

Eichel, McDavid, Draisaitl, Aho, Rantanen etc... are some of the contracts that were signed within close proximity given Matthews and Marner contracts. If Matthews and Marner has signed for 8 years for the same AAV; I think the mood around here would have been different because you extend the window of contention by holding on to these assets at a fixed AAV longer and can plan around much better.

If I had to guess; I would guess that Dubas thought by giving such raises to Matthews and Marner there would be a significant price increase across the league and there might be some parity going forward. Unfortunately that wasn't the case.
 
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