Kyle Dubas Discussion (continued) the 2021 edition

[Antropovsky]

I don't think things are as black and white as you might think. TO selected 9 players in the 2015 draft, statistically Nielsen, Dzierkals, Timashov and Korostelev had pretty impressive stats either before that draft or just after and I doubt that simply putting up impressive numbers while playing against 15, 16 and 17 year olds when you're 18 or 19 is something that excites GMs. Brooks had 120 points the year TO drafted him and 130 points the year after and the 7 games he played last year might be the only 7 NHL games he will ever play.

TO's previous drafts had looked impressive, at that time, TO had a lot of prospects in a previous WJC of which only Ian White made the NHL.

Hind sight is 20/20, time will tell.

Maybe I am missing something from your conversation.... but only Ian White made the NHL? Ian White was one of 5 leaf prospects to play for Canada in WJC in 2003... all of which played in the NHL. Stajan and Wellwood actually had better careers than White. Colaiacovo had similar success to White. Brendan Bell played 102 games.

 

[hobarth]

Maybe I am missing something from your conversation.... but only Ian White made the NHL? Ian White was one of 5 leaf prospects to play for Canada in WJC in 2003... all of which played in the NHL. Stajan and Wellwood actually had better careers than White. Colaiacovo had similar success to White. Brendan Bell played 102 games.

You're right to call me out on this, I probably should've clarified that White appeared to be the only players of quality when playing for TO but his quality year was only with TO.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I don't think things are as black and white as you might think. TO selected 9 players in the 2015 draft, statistically Nielsen, Dzierkals, Timashov and Korostelev had pretty impressive stats either before that draft or just after and I doubt that simply putting up impressive numbers while playing against 15, 16 and 17 year olds when you're 18 or 19 is something that excites GMs. Brooks had 120 points the year TO drafted him and 130 points the year after and the 7 games he played last year might be the only 7 NHL games he will ever play.

TO's previous drafts had looked impressive, at that time, TO had a lot of prospects in a previous WJC of which only Ian White made the NHL.

Hind sight is 20/20, time will tell.

Fair points but a few of these players listed had some glaring flaws. Nielsen was a bad skater with bad 4 way mobility. Korostelev was a bad skater. I like Timashov and i liked the pick in that draft (especially in the 5th) . I think he can still carve out a decent career as a 4th liner. Dzeirkals and Brooks had a decent package of skills but no stand out attributes. For a smaller player you should at least have some stand out abilities to makes the NHL. I was impressed by Brooks' WHL numbers. Not sure how much that was inflated by 1st rounder Sam Steel though. It is one thing to have good numbers in junior but you need to have stranslateable skills to make it to the next level.

Overall I liked the 2015 draft by hunter as we were drafting skill like Marner, Dermott, Bracco, Timashov and Lindgren. Then he moved away from that in the following 2 drafts taking huge players with low IQ and limited skill or flaws.

Dubas' draft philosophy is prioritizing Skating, skill and IQ. These are all qualities needed to make the NHL these days as the league has become a much faster skilled game. Niemela is a great example of this. Amazing skater, good passer, accurate shot, good defensively and makes the right plays at both ends of the rink. No glaring weaknesses.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Not sure who you're referring to, but Robertson for example, is worth more than the 2nd rounder he was drafted with. If Dubas traded Robertson for a 2nd rounder today, this place would riot.

Robertson has not accomplished anything at the NHL level yet, although I certainly hope he does. And most teams, if not every team, probably has a player who has outperformed his draft position.

 

[kk87]

Again, promising is an opinion.

I've been a Leaf fan for over 40 years and I've heard all kinds of stories about how our prospects "look great." I also recognize I am on a site that attracts people that want to discuss prospects.

The basic truth is that until the prospect is traded and the market tells you it's value... it has no value. I can rate my house at $10 million but until someone pays me that, it's "value" hasn't been established.

Here's a legit question that I don't know the answer to.

Aside from Hunter leaving, has Dubas done anything to change the make up of the Scouting department?

Robertson had the best 18 year old goal scoring season we’ve witnessed in the OHL this century. We don’t know what he’ll amount to, but in that context, “promising” very clearly isn’t just an opinion.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Robertson has not accomplished anything at the NHL level yet, although I certainly hope he does. And most teams, if not every team, probably has a player who has outperformed his draft position.

Well I mean he made the NHL playoffs at 18, which is pretty good, but you don't need to do something in the NHL to increase your value. While many teams may have a player who has surpassed their draft position, many would not have one that jumped in value as much as Robertson, and we have quite a few beyond him that have increased their value as well (Niemela, for example, has been great at the WJC). Our prospect pool is quite good now.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Well I mean he made the NHL playoffs at 18, which is pretty good, but you don't need to do something in the NHL to increase your value. While many teams may have a player who has surpassed their draft position, many would not have one that jumped in value as much as Robertson, and we have quite a few beyond him that have increased their value as well (Niemela, for example, has been great at the WJC). Our prospect pool is quite good now.

I, too, am hoping for the best. And I would love for Robertson to be in the top 6, or at least in the top 9.
As for Niemela, that was awesome to see him score the winner. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll excel when he does make it, as Puljujarvi has shown. Again, I’m hoping he does.

 

[Menzinger]

I don't think things are as black and white as you might think. TO selected 9 players in the 2015 draft, statistically Nielsen, Dzierkals, Timashov and Korostelev had pretty impressive stats either before that draft or just after and I doubt that simply putting up impressive numbers while playing against 15, 16 and 17 year olds when you're 18 or 19 is something that excites GMs. Brooks had 120 points the year TO drafted him and 130 points the year after and the 7 games he played last year might be the only 7 NHL games he will ever play.

TO's previous drafts had looked impressive, at that time, TO had a lot of prospects in a previous WJC of which only Ian White made the NHL.

Hind sight is 20/20, time will tell.

I actually think the 2015 draft was Hunters best while he worked with the Leafs. Eveb guys who became busts like Bracco looked like fine picks at the time.

It WAS noticeable that once Lou was hired the 3016 and 2017 drafts saw the Leafs looking at lower skilled but bigger bodied guys. Still to be determined why that happened.

Hindsight is indeed 2020 but st the same time the ultimate tangible way to judge a scouting staff is their ability to select actual NHLers. So we'll know for sure one way or the other within a couple years of those earlier Leafs drafts were worth the hype (and imo at thr moment not looking good)

 

[Menzinger]

Hunter took his head scout Lindsay Hofford with him. Dubas hired John Lilley. Other than that I'm not sure. The GM dictates what the look of the team is going to be and what kind of players he wants the scouts to look for. For example, Burke wanted big, truculant players. We ended up with Biggs, Ross, Devane and Broll. Dubas prioritizes Skill, skating and IQ. We ended up with the likes of Sandin, Robertson, Niemela, Abramov etc.

Now you keep talking about clarevoyance and players not having value until the play in the show or what teams are willing to give up. I don't know why you can't just admit looking at players under different regimes and how they compare based on their results in the their respective development years. For example, let's compare Biggs to Robertson. Biggs was drafted in the 1st round and had 53 pts in 60 OHL games in his D+2 season despite being a man amongst boys. Robertson was drafted in the 2nd round and had 86 pts in just 46 games, was one of the better players for Team USA at the WJC and played NHL games in his D+1 season. Now can you not admit that one prospect is tracking better than the other to make the NHL? Can you not admit that one would hold more value in a trade based on what they had done in their careers at that point?

No one is saying that Dubas' draftees are locks to make the NHL but they are looking better than previous regimes draftees based on their results in development years. That is not biased opinion, that is fact because we can compare results.

Great post.

The suggestion that the value of prospects can't be tracked is nothing but pure nonsense

 

[rumman]

Think he was referring to our Leafs.

Zing.

 

[ACC1224]

Zing.

Just trying to keep it real, ‘great teams’ go on playoff runs. IMO, being against the cap and a non playoff team isn’t something to be celebrated.

 

[rumman]

Just trying to keep it real, ‘great teams’ go on playoff runs. IMO, being against the cap and a non playoff team isn’t something to be celebrated.

True that, as Al Davis was famous for saying: “just win baby.”

 

[LeafChief]

Just trying to keep it real, ‘great teams’ go on playoff runs. IMO, being against the cap and a non playoff team isn’t something to be celebrated.

 

[justashadowof]

The framing the goalie as a potential problem is a preemptive master stroke if you want to build in an excuse for the failure of a "great" team.

This season is going to be a bigger test than any previous season of the Shanahan team. There's only 1 doormat team on the Leafs' entire schedule and that team has improved and loves to beat the Leafs. This team managing to excel under these circumstances would be a huge step forward in terms of compete and dedication to team systems. We'll see. They have a long way to go from the team laid a colossal egg losing a play-in series to a so-called worse team played entirely on their home ice.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Just trying to keep it real, ‘great teams’ go on playoff runs. IMO, being against the cap and a non playoff team isn’t something to be celebrated.

"Keeping it real" would be a nice change from you. Good teams are usually up against the cap, especially when their star players are off their ELCs, and the Leafs are a good team. This is why they are one of just six teams to make the playoffs in each of the last four years, why they are top-5 in ROW over the past 2 years (along with the 2 most recent President's trophy winners, and the 3 most recent Cup winners), why they are being picked as a top-5 team to win the cup this year, etc. Being up against the cap is not an issue. It would actually be a bigger issue if as a competitive team with financial security, we weren't utilizing the space that was available to us.

In fact, this year, most teams in general are up against the cap. The only difference is the Leafs are up against the cap because they have a bunch of amazing players who were recently signed just prior to an global pandemic-induced flat cap, while many teams are up against the cap due to bad, anchor contracts. Dubas' ability to avoid bad contracts and improve the team despite unforeseen cap limitations is something to be celebrated.

 

[The Iceman]

The framing the goalie as a potential problem is a preemptive master stroke if you want to build in an excuse for the failure of a "great" team.

This season is going to be a bigger test than any previous season of the Shanahan team. There's only 1 doormat team on the Leafs' entire schedule and that team has improved and loves to beat the Leafs. This team managing to excel under these circumstances would be a huge step forward in terms of compete and dedication to team systems. We'll see. They have a long way to go from the team laid a colossal egg losing a play-in series to a so-called worse team played entirely on their home ice.

Columbus and Leafs finished with 81 points each last season. Neither were a so called worse team.
The close series went the distance as expected.
Columbus goalies played out of their minds against us.
Leafs lost Muzzin which flipped the power meter to Columbus IMO
Home ice every other game. Teams alternated last change.

 

[justashadowof]

Columbus and Leafs finished with 81 points each last season. Neither were a so called worse team. "so-called worse team"
The close series went the distance as expected. Every hardcore homer here was talking like it was going to be a cakewalk. I certainly didn't think so as Columbus had gotten healthy and are clearly better built for the playoffs.
Columbus goalies played out of their minds against us. The team's best attribute, its high-powered offense, didn't do what it's paid to do.
Leafs lost Muzzin which flipped the power meter to Columbus IMO The team was already in trouble before Muzzin went down: they got shut out in the first game and still hadn't scored a goal in the series as Muzzin was carried off in the 2nd game.
Home ice every other game. Teams alternated last change. Their home city, their home training facilities, their home arena infrastructure. It was a lite version the Zamboni goalie game.


I don't want this to scan over my main points of the original post:
1. The framing the goalie as a potential problem is a preemptive master stroke if you want to build in an excuse for the failure of a "great" team.
2. This schedule is WAY more difficult than any schedule this team has faced in decades.

 

[IPS]

The team was already in trouble before Muzzin went down: they got shut out in the first game and still hadn't scored a goal in the series as Muzzin was carried off in the 2nd game

What are you talking about? We literally had game two won when Muzzin was carried off. "Still hadn't scored a goal" The Leafs are even more impressive than I thought if they're winning a game without scoring a goal

 

[justashadowof]

What are you talking about? We literally had game two won when Muzzin was carried off. "Still hadn't scored a goal" The Leafs are even more impressive than I thought if they're winning a game without scoring a goal

I was mistaken when he got injured, I thought it was in the 2nd period.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The team's best attribute, its high-powered offense, didn't do what it's paid to do.

The Leaf's best attribute performed better than Columbus' best attribute, and Columbus' best attribute was the best in the league during the regular season. Goaltending was the difference.

The team was already in trouble before Muzzin went down: they got shut out in the first game and still hadn't scored a goal in the series as Muzzin was carried off in the 2nd game.

That is false. The Leafs were not in trouble. After losing a very close first game, the Leafs had scored multiple times and were just wrapping up a shutout and what would be the most dominant performance by any team in any game during that series, when Muzzin got injured with less than 2 minutes left in game 2.

Their home city, their home training facilities, their home arena infrastructure.

Weak argument. They didn't have home fans, or last change, or really anything a home team benefits from. They just had horrible ice from everybody else playing on it. Being the away team at the ACC is actually more foreign for these players than any other arena.

 

[justashadowof]

As a thought exercise we decide to place the failures of this team to win a playoff series squarely on Andersen. What has been done to remedy this? Get a better than average back up goalie? Why is that enough?

 

[meefer]

Regarding Kyle...yes, we lost to Columbus. What actions has he taken since then that those who are anti-Dubas have a problem with?
What would be your preferred decisions re: signings that Dubas didn't make? Please include your signings and cap effect.
Please keep in mind there is functional flexibility (trades, cap flexibility) available this year that wasn't last year or two years back.

 

[meefer]

As a thought exercise we decide to place the failures of this team to win a playoff series squarely on Andersen. What has been done to remedy this? Get a better than average back up goalie? Why is that enough?

As a thought exercise, consider that Andersen simply had an off year. Should we panic?

 

[justashadowof]

The goalie is often the perfect scapegoat. The problem with this scapegoating target is that Andersen has performed to expectations in the playoffs for the most part in his 4 years here. He just hasn't stolen anything, like that's what a middle of the pack NHL goalie is supposed to do. That's what a Carey Price or Sergei Bobrovsky are expected to do.

 

[zeke]

I have been more realistic than anyone about what Andersen is over his tenure here, and clearly he was at fault for a large chunk of the regular season underachieving.

But he played as well as can be hoped in the playoffs.

The blame for that series loss is entirely on the offense being unable to score despite creating plenty of chances. Our defense was solid. Our goalie was solid.

We can debate whether that inability to score was our stars choking, their goalie playing insanely well, or just plain bad luck.