Kyle Dubas Discussion (continued) the 2021 edition

[justashadowof]

Anyways, you could do an above average job at the draft table but if you muck up the NHL team in trades, contract negotiation and asset management you're still toast. Ask John Ferguson Jr. about that. He never got another GM gig after that.

 

[Pookie]

Draft order is based on what those prospects had shown up to that point, and what they projected to be based on the available information. But evaluation does not stop at the time of the draft, no matter how much you want it to. Prospects continue to play, improve, show more, and their value changes with that. Dubas' draft picks have progressed at a significant rate, and have shown a lot more to improve their value beyond their draft position. Beyond prospects that were chosen before them at the time. Many of Dubas' picks are currently more valuable, which is beneficial to the team in the present, and not something we saw under previous GMs.

They are more valuable in your opinion.

They have no value until the market tells you what they are worth OR they prove themselves worthy of the expectations you have created via their actual performance.

Until then... it is just a (biased) opinion.

 

[Dekes For Days]

They are more valuable in your opinion.

No, they are factually more valuable, based on their progression. Just because you want to ignore everything that happened after the draft, it doesn't mean everybody else does.

 

[Twine Tickler]

One thing I think dubas & co have done this offseason that I believe has not gotten enough credit is the amount of NHL quality players they have added to the roster/taxi squad. If the NFL is any indication of how things may shake, there undoubtedly will be missed games due to illness. I count 8 legitimate NHL quality defencemen (Reilly, Brodie, muzz, holl, Dermott, lehtonen, bogo, and sandin) and you could also say marv and liljegren could also play I’m worst case scenarios. From there you got ~16 NHL quality forwards (Hyman, Matthews, Marner, JT, Willy, soup, kerfoot, vesey, jumbo, spezz, Simmonds, barabanov, Boyd, Anderson, engvall, Robertson). And then finally 4 NHL tested goalies (Andy, Campbell, dell, and hutch). We arguably have the best depth in the league. Last year losing muzz and/reilly meant marv was in the lineup. The likelihood of marv seeing NHL ice time this year would be very low, and would mean the leafs would be EXTREMELY unlucky with health. Aaron dell is a very solid NHL backup, he is number 3 on our depth chart. I can all but guarantee almost every NHL team will have to utilize their #3 at some point this year. If the starter tests positive, the backup will likely not be far behind given the amount of time spent working together with film and on ice activity. I really believe leafs management have been ahead of the game on this. Especially in terms of goaltending. Not to mention, dubas has done this while being cap strapped. Very impressive

 

[zeke]

Agree with you except that I consider 34, 16 and 91 contracts as overpayments. Yup you are overpaying elite players and JT was a UFA so it might not be as bad but the truth is, they put us up against the cap and thus it is hard to add quality supporting players. Imagine how good we would be (if we had cap space) adding quality players to our current roster at huge discounts.

You might call them overpayments if you want but if we wanted to trade them right now teams would be lining up to bid large on them.

 

[ToneDog]

You might call them overpayments if you want but if we wanted to trade them right now teams would be lining up to bid large on them.

IMO nobody is going to give you market value for those cap hits (especially today with COVID) without sending equal money back or Leafs retaining salary unless you are dealing with a GM that seriously covets a player and deals with his heart rather than with his brain. Somebody like Bergevin trading for Drouin, Bob Clark trading for Lindros, Fletcher reacquiring Clark or Rutherford trading for Kapanen.

 

[Dekes For Days]

what’s his value then?

Not sure who you're referring to, but Robertson for example, is worth more than the 2nd rounder he was drafted with. If Dubas traded Robertson for a 2nd rounder today, this place would riot.

 

[zeke]

IMO nobody is going to give you market value for those cap hits (especially today with COVID) without sending equal money back or Leafs retaining salary unless you are dealing with a GM that seriously covets a player and deals with his heart rather than with his brain. Somebody like Bergevin trading for Drouin, Bob Clark trading for Lindros, Fletcher reacquiring Clark or Rutherford trading for Kapanen.

You're crazy. The entire league would line up for any of those players.

 

[ToneDog]

You're crazy. The entire league would line up for any of those players.

Never said they would not line up but they will be lining up looking for a discount because of the cap hit. If you don't think their AAV (especially for an overpayment) plays a negative factor in any trade, you are wrong.

 

[zeke]

Never said they would not line up but they will be lining up looking for a discount because of the cap hit. If you don't think their AAV (especially for an overpayment) plays a negative factor in any trade, you are wrong.

They would be lining up to bid on all of them.

Would they be even more valuable if they were cheaper? Of course. But those are contracts we would get top top assets back for, if we were ever dumb enough to trade them.

 

[ToneDog]

They would be lining up to bid on all of them.

Would they be even more valuable if they were cheaper? Of course. But those are contracts we would get top top assets back for, if we were ever dumb enough to trade them.

Any trade involving 34,16 or 91 is going to be for top assets. My point is that Leafs may not get back fair market value or an overpayment unless you find a gullable GM. You know like the one who traded Sundin for Clark. I can't think of many examples of elite, highly paid players being traded other than Luongo (or maybe PK for Weber) who pretty much nobody would touch because of his contract. Luckily our guys are not in the same boat yet, although JT might be close if he does not bounce back.

 

[rumman]

All GMs at some point trade draft picks, Dubas will as well. That day will be celebrated as it will be pronounced “the perfect time to make such a move”.

**** Savard would be a perfect target and most would happily pay a few picks to acquire him. Problem Leafs have currently with moving only picks is cap space. Money needs to go out for money to come in.

And who’s fault is it their up against the cap?

 

[zeke]

And who’s fault is it their up against the cap?

What good teams aren't against the cap?

 

[zeke]

Feel bad for the leafs posters who now have to be upset that Hirvonen won that game.

 

[rumman]

What good teams aren't against the cap?

If all your coworkers jump off a cliff, does that mean jumping off a cliff is a good idea?

 

[zeke]

If all your coworkers jump off a cliff, does that mean jumping off a cliff is a good idea?

You want the leafs to be way under the cap?

 

[rumman]

You want the leafs to be way under the cap?

Signing players to reasonable salaries would have left some wiggle room to add if the right opportunity arose, sadly that ship has sailed.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Again, promising is an opinion.

I've been a Leaf fan for over 40 years and I've heard all kinds of stories about how our prospects "look great." I also recognize I am on a site that attracts people that want to discuss prospects.

The basic truth is that until the prospect is traded and the market tells you it's value... it has no value. I can rate my house at $10 million but until someone pays me that, it's "value" hasn't been established.

Here's a legit question that I don't know the answer to.

Aside from Hunter leaving, has Dubas done anything to change the make up of the Scouting department?

Hunter took his head scout Lindsay Hofford with him. Dubas hired John Lilley. Other than that I'm not sure. The GM dictates what the look of the team is going to be and what kind of players he wants the scouts to look for. For example, Burke wanted big, truculant players. We ended up with Biggs, Ross, Devane and Broll. Dubas prioritizes Skill, skating and IQ. We ended up with the likes of Sandin, Robertson, Niemela, Abramov etc.

Now you keep talking about clarevoyance and players not having value until the play in the show or what teams are willing to give up. I don't know why you can't just admit looking at players under different regimes and how they compare based on their results in the their respective development years. For example, let's compare Biggs to Robertson. Biggs was drafted in the 1st round and had 53 pts in 60 OHL games in his D+2 season despite being a man amongst boys. Robertson was drafted in the 2nd round and had 86 pts in just 46 games, was one of the better players for Team USA at the WJC and played NHL games in his D+1 season. Now can you not admit that one prospect is tracking better than the other to make the NHL? Can you not admit that one would hold more value in a trade based on what they had done in their careers at that point?

No one is saying that Dubas' draftees are locks to make the NHL but they are looking better than previous regimes draftees based on their results in development years. That is not biased opinion, that is fact because we can compare results.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Say what you will about his RFA signings but Dubas can scout players.

 

[nuck]

One thing I think dubas & co have done this offseason that I believe has not gotten enough credit is the amount of NHL quality players they have added to the roster/taxi squad. If the NFL is any indication of how things may shake, there undoubtedly will be missed games due to illness. I count 8 legitimate NHL quality defencemen (Reilly, Brodie, muzz, holl, Dermott, lehtonen, bogo, and sandin) and you could also say marv and liljegren could also play I’m worst case scenarios. From there you got ~16 NHL quality forwards (Hyman, Matthews, Marner, JT, Willy, soup, kerfoot, vesey, jumbo, spezz, Simmonds, barabanov, Boyd, Anderson, engvall, Robertson). And then finally 4 NHL tested goalies (Andy, Campbell, dell, and hutch). We arguably have the best depth in the league. Last year losing muzz and/reilly meant marv was in the lineup. The likelihood of marv seeing NHL ice time this year would be very low, and would mean the leafs would be EXTREMELY unlucky with health. Aaron dell is a very solid NHL backup, he is number 3 on our depth chart. I can all but guarantee almost every NHL team will have to utilize their #3 at some point this year. If the starter tests positive, the backup will likely not be far behind given the amount of time spent working together with film and on ice activity. I really believe leafs management have been ahead of the game on this. Especially in terms of goaltending. Not to mention, dubas has done this while being cap strapped. Very impressive

This is an evaluation best made some time into the season. The adds have to perform and at the end of the day. this defensively porous club is hoping Brodie is their silver bullet. It might work as might Jumbo and Simmonds or it might not. Give him the credit after they have done something. Its like all the people raving about what a good draft the club had. How do you know yet? I have stopped dumping on KD for now because his changes might work but he hasn't earned anything yet. I am not sayiong these couldn't be good moves, just they haven't shown it yet.

 

[ACC1224]

What good teams aren't against the cap?

Think he was referring to our Leafs.

 

[Twine Tickler]

This is an evaluation best made some time into the season. The adds have to perform and at the end of the day. this defensively porous club is hoping Brodie is their silver bullet. It might work as might Jumbo and Simmonds or it might not. Give him the credit after they have done something. Its like all the people raving about what a good draft the club had. How do you know yet? I have stopped dumping on KD for now because his changes might work but he hasn't earned anything yet. I am not sayiong these couldn't be good moves, just they haven't shown it yet.

I totally agree, we cannot definitively say the moves KD has made will be the answer. Fact is, dubas Has put a competitive and deep team together under extremely weird and unforeseeable circumstances. At this point, it is on Keefe and most importantly the players to step up and do their part. KD wasted no time pulling the trigger on the kappy deal. Which proved to be very savvy, as he would not have gotten that return further into the offseason. He then addressed as many of the needs to this team as you could really ask for given the cap constraints he was under. At the end of the day, he has made mistakes in his tenure no doubt. But I am really impressed how well he reacts to the clear and obvious deficiencies, despite the fact that it may Be contrary to his “model”, or contradict moves he has previously made. I guess what I am saying is, how likely would Brian Burke be to move off of his truculence model, if the NHL were trending In the opposite direction? The answer is he wouldn’t. He literally does not have a job with an NHL team and still hasn’t changed his mindset on that. Further to that, how many GM’s would have resigned Barrie just to show that they didnt trade kadri for nothing? My guess is A lot. It was clearly a bad trade, and he accepted it, wore it, and adjusted accordingly. Kyle also historically would never employ a Clifford, simmonds , even jumbo for that matter. but It was clear that his team lacked character and/or a spine. he adjusted. I have way more confidence with him behind the wheel vs. Someone who is not open to Adjusting from what is clearly not working.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Don’t you have to wait and see?
I do agree that time is running out and he has to show improvement this season.

We have waited it's time to see

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

All GMs at some point trade draft picks, Dubas will as well. That day will be celebrated as it will be pronounced “the perfect time to make such a move”.

**** Savard would be a perfect target and most would happily pay a few picks to acquire him. Problem Leafs have currently with moving only picks is cap space. Money needs to go out for money to come in.

Send down Boyd, Sandin and Robertson and that's about 1.3 million in space, that's maybe 6 million in deadline space it's doable

 

[hobarth]

Hunter took his head scout Lindsay Hofford with him. Dubas hired John Lilley. Other than that I'm not sure. The GM dictates what the look of the team is going to be and what kind of players he wants the scouts to look for. For example, Burke wanted big, truculant players. We ended up with Biggs, Ross, Devane and Broll. Dubas prioritizes Skill, skating and IQ. We ended up with the likes of Sandin, Robertson, Niemela, Abramov etc.

Now you keep talking about clarevoyance and players not having value until the play in the show or what teams are willing to give up. I don't know why you can't just admit looking at players under different regimes and how they compare based on their results in the their respective development years. For example, let's compare Biggs to Robertson. Biggs was drafted in the 1st round and had 53 pts in 60 OHL games in his D+2 season despite being a man amongst boys. Robertson was drafted in the 2nd round and had 86 pts in just 46 games, was one of the better players for Team USA at the WJC and played NHL games in his D+1 season. Now can you not admit that one prospect is tracking better than the other to make the NHL? Can you not admit that one would hold more value in a trade based on what they had done in their careers at that point?

No one is saying that Dubas' draftees are locks to make the NHL but they are looking better than previous regimes draftees based on their results in development years. That is not biased opinion, that is fact because we can compare results.

I don't think things are as black and white as you might think. TO selected 9 players in the 2015 draft, statistically Nielsen, Dzierkals, Timashov and Korostelev had pretty impressive stats either before that draft or just after and I doubt that simply putting up impressive numbers while playing against 15, 16 and 17 year olds when you're 18 or 19 is something that excites GMs. Brooks had 120 points the year TO drafted him and 130 points the year after and the 7 games he played last year might be the only 7 NHL games he will ever play.

TO's previous drafts had looked impressive, at that time, TO had a lot of prospects in a previous WJC of which only Ian White made the NHL.

Hind sight is 20/20, time will tell.