Kyle Dubas Discussion (continued) the 2021 edition

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

draft picks and prospects have a lot of value, and the best teams in the league who stay good for a long period of time know that and take full advantage of them

They do, that's why I'm not on here talking about trading Robertson or, Sandin or Amirov, even Lilly or Hallinder.

But the cupboard is restocked to the point that if they moved a 1st or a couple 2nds for a couple pieces I don't care in fact I'd prefer it.

 

[hamzarocks]

Honestly didnt like the Dubas promotion when it was announced and was really frustrated with his management style and the problems we had with RFA negotiations (the issue being hold distracting they were for the team and how long it took to get contracts that would be fair value at best a few years into the deals)

Still his work this offseason has been incredible with the exception of the Johnsson trade which even could prove to be good if Anderson turns into the player some people are pegging him as.

Dubas (plus the scouts dont think it's fair to say it's just him) drafting is exceptional.

Sandin, Robertson, Amirov, Abramov, Niemela are 5 excellent picks with the highest of them being at 15th overall.

His trades have been generally good except for Kadri deal which back fired due to Barrie being a non fit and non evolving player who could not adopt his playstyle to play well with Muzzin(where he should have been dominating) and perhaps the Marleau deal which was cancelled out and improved upon with Kapanen deal.

His contract negotiations are his weakest suit and mostly it's the big 3 RFA deals with the time length it took to get them down (nylander) , the drama surrounding the contract from both sides(marner), and the lack of term for a high end cap hit(marner) being weak.

His UFA/Older player signing contracts have been fair to good.

Muzzin is a top 50 defender and should be that for the next 3 years. At 5.65 that is really solid value after getting him without giving up Sandin/Lilijgren and turning one of his weakest picks in Durzi into a B piece in a deal when he should have been a dump in prospect. That was good negotiating followed by building good relation with the player to get him to take a fair deal for term that doesnt kill us down the line

Brodie is a top 50 defender and getting him for 4 years at 5 million (though the Covid impact helped for sure) is a very good deal. Brodie could see his play elevate up and play like a legit top 30 defender next to rielly if they hit off like him and Giordano did.

The next big signings I'm looking at will be Hyman, Rielly and possible Andersen. He needs to hit on those guys and rielly especially needs to be signed long term at a fair rate.

I critique dubas for the lack of results his first two years like most but can acknowledge his moves have helped the team construction for the most part with his drafting going to really be helping the team in 4-5 years time when the mentioned guys should be key players in their primes

This year we play in a weak division with no team as good as the leafs roster talent wise and a lot of that falls to Dubas for building and adding good pieces. Defense, Offense, Goaltending wise none of the Canadian teams should hang with the leafs. No excuse on the players not to go out and produce and dominate. With added physicality and us being in a position where we can make a trade deadline addition like the bolts did with Coleman and Goodrow we can be buyers after a long time at the deadline.

I dont give dubas praise for what he has accomplished so far and accept he deserves critique for the first two years results, but I really do think leafs will go very deep this year (cup final atleast) with the roster we have.

If we end up failing and falling early round 1 and dubas gets booted I still think 3-4 year down the line the next GM would be reaping a lot from the work done by Dubas (as dubas did to an extent from Lou, Burke). Dubas if moved on from will leave the new GM with a lot of valuable pieces to make the roster fit to his construction.

I'm hoping Dubas built a team that can win and win with him being here, but if not he could end up being like Tallon, and mike smith were for the Hawks (not saying we win 3 cups) with the impact they had in building the insanely deep team that was the 2010 cup team which bowman could tinker and add to for the years to come woth the core built.

I'm not a dubas homer and do think some people are a bit too much about him (using nickname as praise, which he needs to earn imo like Masai did for the raptors as the Messiah), and think his past moves and any future moves should be subject to scrutiny if they are clearly poor(certain posters defend endlessly he has done no wrong and managed the team perfectly in his first two years which isnt true imo) but I'm starting to see why MLSE decided to hand the job to a 30 something inexperienced GM in 2018, Dubas seems like he is willing learn, willing to adapt, is able to visualize how to grow this team and has the ability to build for the future. I really hope this year the team succeeds has a deep run and he can fully be deserving of the praise people currently give to him

 

[justashadowof]

Not entirely on the GM (league shut down and level cap) but once a team gets an annual revolving door on its dressing room like this one has, it becomes near impossible to succeed. It has become a team of mercenaries. It's a team built around superstar salaried star players with no team accomplishments to date. Even the stars' dressing room buddies aren't allowed to stay (Kapanen, Johnsson, Brown, etc.).

I've been down this road a few times as a Leafs' fan. Once the GM resorts to air-lifting in vets on their last legs, it's usually a harbinger of a decline. Fortunately it's a potentially reversible decline with the high end talent remaining on the roster. The current GM is married to making this top heavy salary structure work. I think this is the season to send that fantasy to the curb.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Not entirely on the GM (league shut down and level cap) but once a team gets an annual revolving door on its dressing room like this one has, it becomes near impossible to succeed. It has become a team of mercenaries. It's a team built around superstar salaried star players with no team accomplishments to date. Even the stars' dressing room buddies aren't allowed to stay (Kapanen, Johnsson, Brown, etc.).

I've been down this road a few times as a Leafs' fan. Once the GM resorts to air-lifting in vets on their last legs, it's usually a harbinger of a decline. Fortunately it's a potentially reversible decline with the high end talent remaining on the roster. The current GM is married to making this top heavy salary structure work. I think this is the season to send that fantasy to the curb.

That's a great post! I agree with everything you said. I believe the two biggest mistakes made were signing Tavares (I really like him but we weren't where we needed to be at that time), and signing Marner to that huge contract. We are way too top heavy in our salary structure with that much cap going to our forwards. And that leads to the revolving door policy with our bottom 6.

 

[Captain Crunch]

The past two off-seasons, Dubas realized he needed to make changes and went out and did something about it. That’s all you can ask and I won’t fault him for trying.
Last year was somewhat of a failure and see about this year soon enough. He recognized that the team needed to be harder to play against and added what he believes are the right pieces, based on what was attainable.

But it was also based on how much cap space he had available, which wasn't much due to how much he gave out to 4 forwards.

 

[Nineteen67]

But it was also based on how much cap space he had available, which wasn't much due to how much he gave out to 4 forwards.

No doubt. I certainly don’t disagree, but a lot of things out their control happened that caused a flat cap this year. Having said that he still needs to be held accountable.

To over simplify, his strategy has evolved into counting on a combination of Reilly, Muzzin, Brody, being a No.1A,1B,1C - Defence. Freddy being a No.1 goalie and the big 4 forwards scoring enough, then filling the roster with low $ pieces.
If it works, terrific. If it doesn’t, then we can criticize. And there’s lots to critique and it probably starts with the Tavares signing.

 

[Pookie]

He’s also willing to call out his mistakes.

Like this off-season where he admitted a mistake in not valuing leadership.

The big test will be whether he can force himself to move one of the big salaries if the tinkering plan doesn’t work.

 

[ACC1224]

If the Leafs go out and acquire David Savard at the deadline and it costs them 2 2nds and a prospect I don't care because I don't know what those 2 2nds are going to be.

But I know that David Savard would bump down Holl and solidly the top 4 and if that costs 2 2nds and a prospect that's fine those draft picks are magic beans David Savard is a proven asset

All GMs at some point trade draft picks, Dubas will as well. That day will be celebrated as it will be pronounced “the perfect time to make such a move”.

**** Savard would be a perfect target and most would happily pay a few picks to acquire him. Problem Leafs have currently with moving only picks is cap space. Money needs to go out for money to come in.

 

[The Podium]

All GMs at some point trade draft picks, Dubas will as well. That day will be celebrated as it will be pronounced “the perfect time to make such a move”.

**** Savard would be a perfect target and most would happily pay a few picks to acquire him. Problem Leafs have currently with moving only picks is cap space. Money needs to go out for money to come in.

Your passive aggressive posts aren’t necessary...

Dubas also has traded draft picks already. It isn’t about trading or not trading picks. It’s about who you trade them for. Dubas’ philosophy so far has been to only deal picks for players with term.

 

[meefer]

I pu it on management because they built it, I think if this team goes down in round 1 again it's time to start looking at the people that put this group together

You state the team looks good. You agree with management. Which people should one look at?

 

[BertCorbeau]

He’s also willing to call out his mistakes.

Like this off-season where he admitted a mistake in not valuing leadership.

The big test will be whether he can force himself to move one of the big salaries if the tinkering plan doesn’t work.

This is definitely true. I was hoping to see a bit more of a shake up this off-season from the core, but I can get behind them for one more season. If they fail, something needs to be done and Dubas has to recognize this.

 

[Pookie]

I'd agree, both 'regimes' have offered benefits. Dubas, imo, is proving to be better at drafting.

I’d like to ask you what your opinion is based on.

it’s fine to have an opinion but when you say “proving” then it’s logical to ask what proof do you have that Dubas’ picks are better NHL players than Lou’s?

And for fun, I would like to point out the silliness of comparing GM’s based on draft picks that were made largely based on information from scouts Hunter assembled.... under both GMs.

 

[meefer]

If the Leafs go out and acquire David Savard at the deadline and it costs them 2 2nds and a prospect I don't care because I don't know what those 2 2nds are going to be.

But I know that David Savard would bump down Holl and solidly the top 4 and if that costs 2 2nds and a prospect that's fine those draft picks are magic beans David Savard is a proven asset

Tableau Public

Tableau Public

While not the be all and end all of information that one uses to determine, Savard comes out on the short end of the stick. I like him, don't get me wrong, but at 4.25 M ending this year vs Holl at 2 M/ for the next 3 years, giving up 2 2nds and a prospect is way off side.

 

[The Podium]

I’d like to ask you what your opinion is based on.

it’s fine to have an opinion but when you say “proving” then it’s logical to ask what proof do you have that Dubas’ picks are better NHL players than Lou’s?

And for fun, I would like to point out the silliness of comparing GM’s based on draft picks that were made largely based on information from scouts Hunter assembled.... under both GMs.

If you had to trade a prospect from an equivalent round, who would get more in a trade? Nick Robertson or Yegor Korshkov? Mikhail Abramov or Keaton Middleton? Topi Niemela or Andrew Nielson?

And so on an so forth.

To be a good pick the prospect has to either A) make the NHL and contribute or B) improve their value to return more in a trade than the asset used to acquire them

 

[Dekes For Days]

of course Deksie

Your refusal to address any of your false claims says more than enough.

All GMs at some point trade draft picks, Dubas will as well.

The problem isn't trading draft picks. The problem was the attempt to dismiss the value of picks because of the actions of another team.

 

[X66]

From Kevin Papetti on Twitter

The Leafs in 2017:
-Signed Nikita Zaitsev to a 7 x $4.5M extension.
-Signed Patrick Marleau for 3 x $6.25M.
-Signed Ron Hainsey for 2 x $3M.
-Signed Roman Polak for 1 x $1.1M.
-Had a really weak draft (Though we'll see about Liljegren & Scott).
That year really set them back.

And people have such a hard on for Lou it makes no sense. I’m not saying he was an awful GM because he made some really good moves for us.

BUT when your team has TWO of the 10 worst contracts in the NHL thats a big problem.

 

[meefer]

I’d like to ask you what your opinion is based on.

it’s fine to have an opinion but when you say “proving” then it’s logical to ask what proof do you have that Dubas’ picks are better NHL players than Lou’s?

And for fun, I would like to point out the silliness of comparing GM’s based on draft picks that were made largely based on information from scouts Hunter assembled.... under both GMs.

My opinion is based on a large number of so called 'experts', who we source on a regular basis for information to make our comments here, that spend far more time following our draft picks than do I. I also use the data that is present when those draft picks are playing after they are drafted. Both suggest that the picks Dubas has made have surpassed the best efforts of the picks that were made under the Hunter regime. If you can provide evidence to the contrary, I would be happy to look at them.

'Proving' by the way, in context towards better NHL players, is a bit of a daft argument, you know better. Lou's picks have not proved to be better than Kyle's. Accepted, because neither group has proved to be competent in the NHL. But, if you're looking at a timeline and the development of the players on that timeline, regardless of whether they've proved to be good NHL players, those drafted under the 'Lou' period have not moved the needle even given the extra period of development, whereas, a number of players selected during the Dubas period have exceeded their comparables drafted by Lou, and are expected to be in the NHL at a greater % than those drafted by Lou. Again, if you have evidence, other than neither group has made it to date, I'm all ears.

As to the 'silliness' factor you present, fair point. The scouting staff presents the info, the management makes the decisions. In this regard, I favor how Dubas has used that information.

I don't hate Lou. I think he was the right choice at the time. I appreciate what he did with the organization. I happen to enjoy the direction the team has taken after he wasn't re-hired.

 

[meefer]

From Kevin Papetti on Twitter

The Leafs in 2017:
-Signed Nikita Zaitsev to a 7 x $4.5M extension.
-Signed Patrick Marleau for 3 x $6.25M.
-Signed Ron Hainsey for 2 x $3M.
-Signed Roman Polak for 1 x $1.1M.
-Had a really weak draft (Though we'll see about Liljegren & Scott).
That year really set them back.

And people have such a hard on for Lou it makes no sense. I’m not saying he was an awful GM because he made some really good moves for us.

BUT when your team has TWO of the 10 worst contracts in the NHL thats a big problem.

Liljegren was a no-brainer. I believe he will be a quality defenseman in the NHL. Leaf fans are very impatient people.
Scott, ya it could work out, I won't say voodoo, but they are a curious breed.

 

[meefer]

Honestly didnt like the Dubas promotion when it was announced and was really frustrated with his management style and the problems we had with RFA negotiations (the issue being hold distracting they were for the team and how long it took to get contracts that would be fair value at best a few years into the deals)

Still his work this offseason has been incredible with the exception of the Johnsson trade which even could prove to be good if Anderson turns into the player some people are pegging him as.

Dubas (plus the scouts dont think it's fair to say it's just him) drafting is exceptional.

Sandin, Robertson, Amirov, Abramov, Niemela are 5 excellent picks with the highest of them being at 15th overall.

His trades have been generally good except for Kadri deal which back fired due to Barrie being a non fit and non evolving player who could not adopt his playstyle to play well with Muzzin(where he should have been dominating) and perhaps the Marleau deal which was cancelled out and improved upon with Kapanen deal.

His contract negotiations are his weakest suit and mostly it's the big 3 RFA deals with the time length it took to get them down (nylander) , the drama surrounding the contract from both sides(marner), and the lack of term for a high end cap hit(marner) being weak.

His UFA/Older player signing contracts have been fair to good.

Muzzin is a top 50 defender and should be that for the next 3 years. At 5.65 that is really solid value after getting him without giving up Sandin/Lilijgren and turning one of his weakest picks in Durzi into a B piece in a deal when he should have been a dump in prospect. That was good negotiating followed by building good relation with the player to get him to take a fair deal for term that doesnt kill us down the line

Brodie is a top 50 defender and getting him for 4 years at 5 million (though the Covid impact helped for sure) is a very good deal. Brodie could see his play elevate up and play like a legit top 30 defender next to rielly if they hit off like him and Giordano did.

The next big signings I'm looking at will be Hyman, Rielly and possible Andersen. He needs to hit on those guys and rielly especially needs to be signed long term at a fair rate.

I critique dubas for the lack of results his first two years like most but can acknowledge his moves have helped the team construction for the most part with his drafting going to really be helping the team in 4-5 years time when the mentioned guys should be key players in their primes

This year we play in a weak division with no team as good as the leafs roster talent wise and a lot of that falls to Dubas for building and adding good pieces. Defense, Offense, Goaltending wise none of the Canadian teams should hang with the leafs. No excuse on the players not to go out and produce and dominate. With added physicality and us being in a position where we can make a trade deadline addition like the bolts did with Coleman and Goodrow we can be buyers after a long time at the deadline.

I dont give dubas praise for what he has accomplished so far and accept he deserves critique for the first two years results, but I really do think leafs will go very deep this year (cup final atleast) with the roster we have.

If we end up failing and falling early round 1 and dubas gets booted I still think 3-4 year down the line the next GM would be reaping a lot from the work done by Dubas (as dubas did to an extent from Lou, Burke). Dubas if moved on from will leave the new GM with a lot of valuable pieces to make the roster fit to his construction.

I'm hoping Dubas built a team that can win and win with him being here, but if not he could end up being like Tallon, and mike smith were for the Hawks (not saying we win 3 cups) with the impact they had in building the insanely deep team that was the 2010 cup team which bowman could tinker and add to for the years to come woth the core built.

I'm not a dubas homer and do think some people are a bit too much about him (using nickname as praise, which he needs to earn imo like Masai did for the raptors as the Messiah), and think his past moves and any future moves should be subject to scrutiny if they are clearly poor(certain posters defend endlessly he has done no wrong and managed the team perfectly in his first two years which isnt true imo) but I'm starting to see why MLSE decided to hand the job to a 30 something inexperienced GM in 2018, Dubas seems like he is willing learn, willing to adapt, is able to visualize how to grow this team and has the ability to build for the future. I really hope this year the team succeeds has a deep run and he can fully be deserving of the praise people currently give to him

A fine assessment. Though I don't think Dubas will be hung out to dry because of all that you've said. At some point, the players need to be held accountable.

 

[zeke]

The funny thing about people complaining about the bottom of the roster turnover that Dubas intentionally does is that all the other teams, including the best ones, either do the same or are unable to do the same because they can't get rid of their overpaid bottom roster players.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Why has this entire conversation went into a Lou vs Dubas conversation.

Arguing that someone is a good GM because they're better than the last guy, or subsequently, arguing that someone is a terrible GM because they're worse than the last guy seems a little shortsighted IMO.

 

[4thline]

This is definitely true. I was hoping to see a bit more of a shake up this off-season from the core, but I can get behind them for one more season. If they fail, something needs to be done and Dubas has to recognize this.

Depends how you define fail.

Fall flat on their faces- yeah sure.
Show some individual and team progress- I think they get another year.

The real decision point is when Rielly's contract is up.

 

[zeke]

Why has this entire conversation went into a Lou vs Dubas conversation.

Arguing that someone is a good GM because they're better than the last guy, or subsequently, arguing that someone is a terrible GM because they're worse than the last guy seems a little shortsighted IMO.

True.

Dubas is a great GM because:

1) he's the only GM in hockey without one bad contract on his roster;

2) he's managed to significantly upgrade his roster with legit impact talent even while losing the huge advantage of having a number of elite players on their ELC contracts, which is pretty much incredible;

3) he's already built up one of the best prospect pools in hockey despite having no top picks to work with.

 

[ACC1224]

Why has this entire conversation went into a Lou vs Dubas conversation.

Arguing that someone is a good GM because they're better than the last guy, or subsequently, arguing that someone is a terrible GM because they're worse than the last guy seems a little shortsighted IMO.

Putting down Lou is used as a way to prop up Dubas. One really has nothing to do with the other.
Honesty has almost completely disappeared from this place, so few of us left.

 

[ACC1224]

Depends how you define fail.

Fall flat on their faces- yeah sure.
Show some individual and team progress- I think they get another year.

The real decision point is when Rielly's contract is up.

Miss the playoffs again would be a huge fail and changes must occur. IMO, not advancing to the final 4 would be considered a fail and Shanahan, Dubas would be on notice.