Kyle Dubas Discussion (continued) the 2021 edition

[Wafflewhipper]

I have no idea if you hate their roster.

what I find quite amusing is the desire by a small group here to try to tear down Lou and build up Dubas.
.

I don’t envy either one of them. I’m not sure how much longer the big 4 will remain intact. Both done good and bad, both done much more good than bad

 

[Wafflewhipper]

hopefully

Yeah hopefully they’ve learned the degree of consistency needed. They work smart and hard we will be ok. I notice though that we have the largest discrepancy to the negative on penalties by large margins already. Opponents are getting 2 more powerplays + per game against us. Factor in all the incidents where blatant calls against us were ignored and thats troubling as to why.
This is a yearly issue or I wouldn’t even mention it. Refs screw our team. That means we have to play nastier and by that i mean,crosschecking,fighting,charging,roughing penalties. Then keep down the hooks,holds,interference and tripping down to almost nothing.
The refs will get the message only when the players show they had it. It’s been going on years

 

[The Podium]

I have no idea if you hate their roster.

what I find quite amusing is the desire by a small group here to try to tear down Lou and build up Dubas.
.

What we find quite amusing is the desire by a smaller but louder group to try to tear down Dubas and build up Lou.

Wouldn’t it be better if you stop bringing up Lou all together?

 

[Zybalto]

the Leafs dug themselves a hole in the first 23 games and then jumped back in it during the last 23.


Now do the playoffs.

Islanders went 11-5 in the first 3 rounds before losing to the Cup champs in the Conference Final.

Your turn....

Just ignoring any comparisons for the moment, I was pointing out that the Isles, who were the best team in hockey the first month and a half, completely went off the rails and were one of the worst teams in the NHL the next 3 and a half months and were crashing out of the playoffs. I said the break helped them and I'm sticking to that.

All of a sudden, they were finding timely scoring and much improved D to go along with their excellent goalkeeping. Its a credit to Trotz and Lou they were able to right the ship during the break and have the team prepared. Really solid playoff showing and a redemption arc for the Isles on the year and another example of how important goaltending is in the playoffs. (Apart from Columbus and Montreal goaltending heroics, guess who had the third best keeping in the playoffs the first 3 rounds?)

I believe I started all of this ruminating on how the Isles would do without their 1-2 punch in net this year as they are a team built starting from the net out and backup numbers may fall this year. Got trounced 5-0 first game so far but let's see if their rookie can establish himself.

 

[Pookie]

What we find quite amusing is the desire by a smaller but louder group to try to tear down Dubas and build up Lou.

Wouldn’t it be better if you stop bringing up Lou all together?

I think calling Dubas’ record into question is fair game.

if losing is equivalent to “tearing him down” then so be it.

Clairvoyant projections aside, we haven’t been successful under him. And if we fail to place in the 7 team mini tournament, it’s fair game to question whether he’s back next year.

this is what this place is for isn’t it? Or is it just Dubas’ record isn’t allowed to be discussed?

 

[Pookie]

Just ignoring any comparisons for the moment, I was pointing out that the Isles, who were the best team in hockey the first month and a half, completely went off the rails and were one of the worst teams in the NHL the next 3 and a half months and were crashing out of the playoffs. I said the break helped them and I'm sticking to that.

All of a sudden, they were finding timely scoring and much improved D to go along with their excellent goalkeeping. Its a credit to Trotz and Lou they were able to right the ship during the break and have the team prepared. Really solid playoff showing and a redemption arc for the Isles on the year and another example of how important goaltending is in the playoffs. (Apart from Columbus and Montreal goaltending heroics, guess who had the third best keeping in the playoffs the first 3 rounds?)

I believe I started all of this ruminating on how the Isles would do without their 1-2 punch in net this year as they are a team built starting from the net out and backup numbers may fall this year. Got trounced 5-0 first game so far but let's see if their rookie can establish himself.

just for interest sake, Varlomov was .921 in the playoffs last year. Andersen .936

In terms of your comparison for the reg season.... did you consider the Islanders injuries?

or that our leafs were just 4 back of them at the arbitrary moment you pulled out? And finished 1 up but played 2 more games?

we went down to 19th over that same time frame.

I’m not finding much comfort in your chalking their success up to luck.

 

[The Podium]

I think calling Dubas’ record into question is fair game.

if losing is equivalent to “tearing him down” then so be it.

Clairvoyant projections aside, we haven’t been successful under him. And if we fail to place in the 7 team mini tournament, it’s fair game to question whether he’s back next year.

this is what this place is for isn’t it? Or is it just Dubas’ record isn’t allowed to be discussed?

Questioning Dubas is fair game, but you can’t complain about those who “tear down Lou to prop up Dubas” if you tear down Dubas to prop up Lou

 

[Pookie]

Questioning Dubas is fair game, but you can’t complain about those who “tear down Lou to prop up Dubas” if you tear down Dubas to prop up Lou

I have no desire to prop up one over the other.

I just highlight their records since Shanahan made the decision.

The data drives the conclusion.

one has been successful. One has not.

One was successful using some players that one felt couldn’t play here. And one hasn’t been successful despite landing a marquee player from the other.

if the data were reversed and it was Dubas that made the conference final and Lou looking on from the outside, Shanahan’s decision would be absolutely vindicated.

but that’s not where the data leads us.

 

[The Podium]

I have no desire to prop up one over the other.

I just highlight their records since Shanahan made the decision.

The data drives the conclusion.

one has been successful. One has not.

One was successful using some players that one felt couldn’t play here. And one hasn’t been successful despite landing a marquee player from the other.

if the data were reversed and it was Dubas that made the conference final and Lou looking on from the outside, Shanahan’s decision would be absolutely vindicated.

but that’s not where the data leads us.

Data without context is useless. There are very valid arguments to question Lou's tenure here and on the Island. There is also very valid arguments to question Dubas' tenure here.

Standings dont tell the whole story. Outside of a 17 game point streak for the NYI they were largely mediocre and trending to miss the playoffs. Since the season cut out early the crude data you are using doesnt show that the Islanders were 19-20-8 after that streak while Toronto was 25-15-5. Yet Toronto finishing lower in the standing looks like they performed worse despite trends suggesting otherwise.

Now the NYI deserve full credit for performing in the playoffs. They were the underdog in 3/4 series and came out on top until meeting the TBL.

But the playoffs are the least predictable thing in hockey. This is a team that was slipping hard in the standings after being 1st overall after 20-something games.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Data without context is useless. There are very valid arguments to question Lou's tenure here and on the Island. There is also very valid arguments to question Dubas' tenure here.

Standings dont tell the whole story. Outside of a 17 game point streak for the NYI they were largely mediocre and trending to miss the playoffs. Since the season cut out early the crude data you are using doesnt show that the Islanders were 19-20-8 after that streak while Toronto was 25-15-5. Yet Toronto finishing lower in the standing looks like they performed worse despite trends suggesting otherwise.

Now the NYI deserve full credit for performing in the playoffs. They were the underdog in 3/4 series and came out on top until meeting the TBL.

But the playoffs are the least predictable thing in hockey. This is a team that was slipping hard in the standings after being 1st overall after 20-something games.

Defense wins in playoffs and Isles play a hard working boring game designed to win 1-0 by capitalizing on other teams mistakes ... but it cleal]rly can be overwhelmed by Tampa pressure and it broke

 

[Dekes For Days]

The data drives the conclusion.

The thing is, there's a lot more data than the one singular surface result you keep deflecting back to. You're just ignoring all of the other data, and pointing exclusively to something that is quite heavily affected by factors outside of the effectiveness and quality of a GM.

Except the Islanders weren't an "80 point team". They were a team that happened to get 80 points in one bad year, after a 3-year period where they averaged almost 100 points a season.

It's actually quite funny, because most of the 1m+ AAV players that Lou targeted and acquired since joining the Islanders have been forwards, and their offense is bad and has been getting worse every year. Their defense has improved, but primarily due to players that Lou had nothing to do with.

Here are the 1m+ UFA skaters that Lou brought in to the team:

-Filppula (2.75m/1 year/NMC) - Played one mediocre season in the bottom-six and then left.
-Brassard (1.2m/1 year) - Played one mediocre season in the bottom-six and then left.
-Kovar (2.0m/1 year) - Contract terminated before playing a game.
-Komarov (3.0m/4 years/M-NTC) - Signed after being a healthy scratch on his previous team. Currently a healthy scratch and cap dump less than halfway through the deal, signed until he's 35.
-Hickey (2.5m/4 years) - Played less than half of a season as a #6/7, and has been a healthy scratch and cap dump ever since.
-Sbisa (1.5m/1 year) - Their #8 defenseman, played a total of 9 games.

And the 1m+ skaters he brought in through trade:

-Martin (2.5m/2 years) - 14th highest forward TOI/GP (41+ GP) on the team during those years. Re-signed for 1.5m/4 years, until he's 35.
-Pageau (Rental) - Cost 1st, 2nd, conditional 3rd to acquire. Re-signed to a 5.0m/6 year contract into his mid-30s before even playing a game.
-Greene (Rental) - Cost 2nd round pick. Their #6 defenseman, re-signed for 2.7m/1 year, at age 38.

The longest term he gave an RFA was Johnston (4 years), and he's largely been a healthy scratch since. He re-signed Lee, Eberle, Nelson, and Pageau to expensive long-term contracts into their mid-30s with NTCs, and as a result, was forced to bridge Barzal, Beauvillier, and Pulock post-ELC, and trade away one of their better defensemen in Toews, even with one of their bigger contracts retiring. Nelson and Pulock were walked straight to UFA in their 3rd contracts.

Pretty much the only positive thing Lou did was bring respectability to the goaltending, and even there, he's made some questionable moves. He got Lehner, who was amazing, only to let him leave and sign a worse, older goalie to the same cap hit it would have cost to keep Lehner. He let Sorokin cancel out his ELC, and then signed him to a 2m/1 year contract before playing a single game in the NHL.

How anybody can think we'd be better off with Lou is beyond me. His team has gotten back to their previous level largely despite him, not because of him, and he's sacrificed the future to boost the present, despite no hope of actually winning a cup. People here would have had a fit if Dubas made any of the moves that Lou has made.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Defense wins in playoffs

This is a huge myth with nothing to support it. Evidence actually points to the opposite. Now goaltending, that's important.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

It doesn't. Both goaltending and offense tend to be more important.

Defense and tending win almost every year ... with a few exceptions

 

[Pookie]

The thing is, there's a lot more data than the one singular surface result you keep deflecting back to. You're just ignoring all of the other data, and pointing exclusively to something that is quite heavily affected by factors outside of the effectiveness and quality of a GM.

is it the Stanley Cup or the Corsi Cup?

I don’t think the Stanley Cup can be described as a singular surface result. Winning it is THE result and the Lou got closer in the last 2 years than Dubas did.

I am worried about you this season. If you define success as rank order charts... how can you draw any conclusions from playing 6 teams all the time?

 

[Dekes For Days]

is it the Stanley Cup or the Corsi Cup?

I didn't mention Corsi at all. Neither team have won the Stanley Cup, so really that's a meaningless argument. You can't just ignore all other data except for the one piece of information you like and then talk about how we need to look at the data. I looked at the data, going over what Lou has done for the Islanders, and you refuse to address it, because it completely contradicts all of your claims.

Defense and tending win almost every year ... with a few exceptions

Nothing wins "almost every year". Cup Champions have come in all sorts of shapes and sizes. Goaltending is often important. Defense less so.

 

[ToneDog]

is it the Stanley Cup or the Corsi Cup?

I don’t think the Stanley Cup can be described as a singular surface result. Winning it is THE result and the Lou got closer in the last 2 years than Dubas did.

I am worried about you this season. If you define success as rank order charts... how can you draw any conclusions from playing 6 teams all the time?

Sadly I think Lou's balanced Isles will go further than our top heavy Leafs again this year. Our only hope is that Dubas is building something that can win sooner than later. Right now the Isles look like a team. We look more like a work in progress, although we do have a few players than have the ability to win a playoff series on their own.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Sadly I think Lou's balanced Isles will go further than our top heavy Leafs this year. Our only hope is that Dubas is building something that can win sooner than later. Right now the Isles look like a team. We look more like a work in progress.

You wanna bet?

 

[ToneDog]

You wanna bet?

Gladly.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Gladly.

What do you propose?

 

[ToneDog]

What do you propose?

I would say loser leaves town but you are pretty good poster.

 

[Pookie]

I didn't mention Corsi at all. Neither team have won the Stanley Cup, so really that's a meaningless argument. You can't just ignore all other data except for the one piece of information you like and then talk about how we need to look at the data. I looked at the data, going over what Lou has done for the Islanders, and you refuse to address it, because it completely contradicts all of your claims.

Nothing wins "almost every year". Cup Champions have come in all sorts of shapes and sizes. Goaltending is often important. Defense less so.

when you “go over all the other data” you often end up making conclusions for things that haven’t happened yet.

it’s impossible to debate when someone uses clairvoyance as a counter point.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I would say loser leaves town but you are pretty good poster.

LOL thanks, I was not expecting that.

If we're talking about who wins more playoff games then I think the way the divisions are set up favours Toronto so yeah, I think NYI is a substantial underdog to "go further". There's a decent chance they won't even make the playoffs while the Leafs are huge favourites to do so so ... I'd rethink your stance if I were you.

 

[Dekes For Days]

when you “go over all the other data” you often end up making conclusions for things that haven’t happened yet.

Nope, that post that you're avoiding addressing is all things that have happened and stuff that Lou has already done.

 

[ToneDog]

LOL thanks, I was not expecting that.

If we're talking about who wins more playoff games then I think the way the divisions are set up favours Toronto so yeah, I think NYI is a substantial underdog to "go further". There's a decent chance they won't even make the playoffs while the Leafs are huge favourites to do so so ... I'd rethink your stance if I were you.

I agree Leafs are the better bet to get out of the North than the Isles getting out of the East. Seriously my concern with the Leafs is their forward depth and whether their D is strong enough to withstand a strong cycle, especially when their 4th line is on the ice, and assuming Hyman remains on our 3rd line. Andy also still needs to prove he is not a game 7 choker.

 

[Pookie]

Nope, that post that you're avoiding addressing is all things that have happened and stuff that Lou has already done.

oh geez..... are you talking about the post where you listed some players you think were crap that Lou signed?

the players that got them the playoff wins?

perhaps the way you and Dubas evaluate talent is worth questioning based on results.