Kyle Dubas appreciation / hot seat discussion ***Mod warning in OP***

[Menzinger]

can you please explain the "nuance of understanding" to giving Nylander/Mathews/Marner contracts far more generous to their contemporaries are signing for? My blind hatred must be keeping me from understanding this strategy?

Matthew's and Nylandera contracts are well within the range of their comparables. Marner was an overpay.

Almost as if things aren't as black/white as you keep suggesting

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Speed, skill and possession are all great but he does need to learn that you need to make some room for some grit and size too, it needs to be functional though. Muzzin was a good add on his part, he hits, blocks shots and can move the puck etc. Good add. He needs to add some more players like that because playoffs are different and you can't finesse your way the whole post-season.



That wasn't a development year, that was a go for it year. Team flopped. Team owns some of it, coach owns some of it and the GM owns some of it.

It was year 3 three of a basically rookie team. It was a hope year. Boston came out on top again and went to the final.

This year is full out all signed core and adds to the RHD and promotion year for Sandin. Cici can he moved, injury could happen and ifits Andersen that is the injury we are likely not even making playoffs. If it happens pre deadline we become sellers and thats just about the sane as it could be for any team. Everyone against the cap is going for it, are they any different!! Yeah likely they aren't running two top ten centers in their lineup and aren't as favoured to win. Same circumstances could and should apply. Going for it is a commonality! It doesn't differentiate us..

It most definitely was expierence and development years previous.

 

[Menzinger]

pretty much all key pieces outside Muzzin, Barrie and Kerfoot he inherited.

Edit: mind blanked forgot JT which he deserves credit for.

Or phrased differently,....

He added two top 4 D men (including 1 top pairing quality), a top 9 centre and a top 10 centre in the league +completely revamping the depth forward positions and clearing out the legacy bad contracts to fit the core moving forward.

Fairly significant impact imo.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Matthews is overpaid by a solid 1 million, considering its for only 5 years

Marner is overpaid by a solid 1.5 million

Nylander is, I would say, overpaid by 300k

2.8 million total

Sure could use that 2.8 million this year.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Matthew's and Nylandera contracts are well within the range of their comparables. Marner was an overpay.

Almost as if things aren't as black/white as you keep suggesting

Willy's deal looks team friendly after seeing what this years rfa's just got! Funny how that completely blows the sh!t right out of all the complaining and hating that went on during the negotiations doesn't it!

Thats why fans should stick to the game entertainment aspect.

 

[93LEAFS]

Matthew's and Nylandera contracts are well within the range of their comparables. Marner was an overpay.

Almost as if things aren't as black/white as you keep suggesting

Nylander's is out of wack due to how few UFA years we bought. Only Larkin gave up one UFA year. Kyle Connor is pretty clearly a reasonable comaprable, yet even with lockout protection and frontloaded money, Nylander came in at only .2m less while giving up one less contract year, and 2 less UFA years. Ehlers got significantly less for 7 (again, giving up 3 ufa years). None of these got things which are supposed to bring down cap hits such as frontloading and some level of lockout protection.

Which comparables is Matthews in line with? Its a better contract than McDavid. His comparable was between Eichel and McDavid. So, cap hit is fine, but only if the contract is for 8. The only way these contracts are actually in-line on any level with their recent comprables is if we just ignore term given, how the contracts structure significantly benefits the player, and how many UFA years bought. Everyone wants to talk about the Malkin or Toews deals. Malkins contract was all in base salary, and he had no lockout protection costing him 4.5m in 2012/13. Toews contract has 1.5m signing bonus in year one, and no lockout protection (costing him around 2.5m in 2012/13). I get giving these guys lockout protection, but only if it helps bring down the cap #. That didn't happen in any single case. They are all on the very high-end of their comparables, in many ways, significantly ahead.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Nylander's is out of wack due to how few UFA years we bought. Only Larkin gave up one UFA year. Kyle Connor is pretty clearly a reasonable comaprable, yet even with lockout protection and frontloaded money, Nylander came in at only .2m less while giving up one less contract year, and 2 less UFA years. Ehlers got significantly less for 7 (again, giving up 3 ufa years). None of these got things which are supposed to bring down cap hits such as frontloading and some level of lockout protection.

Which comparables is Matthews in line with? Its a better contract than McDavid. His comparable was between Eichel and McDavid. So, cap hit is fine, but only if the contract is for 8. The only way these contracts are actually in-line on any level with their recent comprables is if we just ignore term given, how the contracts structure significantly benefits the player, and how many UFA years bought. Everyone wants to talk about the Malkin or Toews deals. Malkins contract was all in base salary, and he had no lockout protection costing him 4.5m in 2012/13. Toews contract has 1.5m signing bonus in year one, and no lockout protection (costing him around 2.5m in 2012/13). I get giving these guys lockout protection, but only if it helps bring down the cap #. That didn't happen in any single case. They are all on the very high-end of their comparables, in many ways, significantly ahead.

Is it really fair to compare Nylander to Connor's contract though given Connor signed nearly a year later in a different off-season? I'm not quite sure it is

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I don't expect perfect but our contracts are clearly outside league norms

I don't mind Dubas generally but this is completely unacceptable, how the hell do you go into RFA negostiations with most of the leverage and get bent over like this?

There is no defending this, there just isn't

I'm like you. I think Dubas did a great job rounding out the team and getting rid of bad Lou contracts. As far as contract negotiations go with high profile players, Dubas sucks.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Sure could use that 2.8 million this year.

to do what?

 

[93LEAFS]

Is it really fair to compare Nylander to Connor's contract though given Connor signed nearly a year later in a different off-season? I'm not quite sure it is

The constant defense for Nylander's contract for ages was it was the progression and new market from Ehlers, Pastrnak, Drai, etc. It appears the market for that level of player didn't grow as much as people claimed, considering what Connor just got. I mean, if you want to compare Nylander to the guys who signed before him its still not good. He's at the very top of his comparables.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Matthew's and Nylandera contracts are well within the range of their comparables. Marner was an overpay.

Almost as if things aren't as black/white as you keep suggesting

Matthews contract is within the range of his recent comparables on an 8 year term. Not 5. (FOUR ufa years, not one).

Kyle Connors contract makes Nylanders look like a pretty big joke. They have the same points over their 2 years, but Connor was a proven 34 goal scorer (as opposed to Nylanders 22), and scored around 25 more elc goals. So right there alone Connor deserved significantly more than Nylander.

But they signed for the precise same cap percentage, with Connor getting one extra year on term, and one extra ufa year. Let's also add that Connor has NO signing bonuses or front-loading, whereas Nylander made about HALF of his total contract within 7 months of signing. Nylanders contract is just as big of a joke as Dubas's other unprecedented dramatic overpayments.

And this is usually when the Dubas defenders start blabbing on about "the taxes. The taxes. the taxes."
Well, that bullshit excuse can't even be used this time. They pay the same taxes.

 

[Menzinger]

Nylander's is out of wack due to how few UFA years we bought. Only Larkin gave up one UFA year. Kyle Connor is pretty clearly a reasonable comaprable, yet even with lockout protection and frontloaded money, Nylander came in at only .2m less while giving up one less contract year, and 2 less UFA years. Ehlers got significantly less for 7 (again, giving up 3 ufa years). None of these got things which are supposed to bring down cap hits such as frontloading and some level of lockout protection.

Which comparables is Matthews in line with? Its a better contract than McDavid. His comparable was between Eichel and McDavid. So, cap hit is fine, but only if the contract is for 8. The only way these contracts are actually in-line on any level with their recent comprables is if we just ignore term given, how the contracts structure significantly benefits the player, and how many UFA years bought. Everyone wants to talk about the Malkin or Toews deals. Malkins contract was all in base salary, and he had no lockout protection costing him 4.5m in 2012/13. Toews contract has 1.5m signing bonus in year one, and no lockout protection (costing him around 2.5m in 2012/13). I get giving these guys lockout protection, but only if it helps bring down the cap #. That didn't happen in any single case. They are all on the very high-end of their comparables, in many ways, significantly ahead.

I'll grant you both Nylander and Matthew's were on the higher end pf.the comparisons but they're still in the range -like with Elhers, Nylander had a higher ppg, and higher pp/60 yet folks still act as if they had identical production...

If you're an Atheltic subscriber I'd be happy to pass on a couple articles that break down them to historical comparisons (feel its morally dubious to copy paste paywall content in public forum). Matthews is definitely the harder to pon down given of how rare of a skillset he has -but Malkin remains by far the closest one (everyone understands McDavid gave an absurdly twam friendly deal) and Eichels production is a shadow of what Matthew's was putting up when he signed his contract -goal scoring especiay),

And we've had this discussion regarding bonuses before- imo it's clear that the team is taking the position that the front loaded structure is to make them moreoveable in those final couple years (Matthew's is only getting 15 mil in real money for those last 24 months).

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Is it really fair to compare Nylander to Connor's contract though given Connor signed nearly a year later in a different off-season? I'm not quite sure it is

What comparables are you using for Nylander then? Ehlers and Pastrnak signed in different seasons as well.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'll grant you both Nylander and Matthew's were on the higher end pf.the comparisons but they're still in the range -like with Elhers, Nylander had a higher ppg, and higher pp/60 yet folks still act as if they had identical peoductuon...

If you're an Atheltic subscriber I'd be happy to pass on a couple articles that break down them to historical comparisons (feel its morally dubious to copy paste paywall content in public forum). Matthews is definitely the harder to pon down given of how rare of a skillset he has -but Malkin remains by far the closest one (everyone understands McDavid gave an absurdly twam friendly deal) and Eichels production is a shadow of what Matthew's was putting up when he signed his contract -goal scoring especiay),

And we've had this discussipn regarding bonuses before- imp it's clear that the team is taking the position that the front loaded term to make them moreoveable in those final couple years (Matthew's is only getting 15 mil in real money for those last 24 months).

The bonuses shouldn't just be handed out, they shoudl be structured in base salary after year 1, if the goal is to make them more tradable. Again, the big issue is, we gave out two things that dramatically help the player. Being paid early is a significant advantage.

The big issue with Ehlers as with Connor, Nylander gave up 1 UFA year, compared to the 3 both of those guys gave up. The years being bought has to be factored in. UFA years are worth more to the player, and therefore are sold at a higher price. So, even if Ehlers lower production favors Nylander, when you account for the age signed, years bought, the contract structure, the difference shouldn't be 1m and a year less in Nylander's favor. Again, the lockout protection doesn't make them more tradable, and being fully protected outside of 700k from a league that has had 3 lockouts for almost a half season (with a full one in one case), should be a major factor in somewhat driving down AAV, but instead, we end up on the high-end on every deal, even after giving these things out. The cap-hit alone is questionable, but when you get into the structure of the actual deals, it seems the player conceded absolutely nothing for things that should be valued.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I'll grant you both Nylander and Matthew's were on the higher end pf.the comparisons but they're still in the range -like with Elhers, Nylander had a higher ppg, and higher pp/60 yet folks still act as if they had identical production...

If you're an Atheltic subscriber I'd be happy to pass on a couple articles that break down them to historical comparisons (feel its morally dubious to copy paste paywall content in public forum). Matthews is definitely the harder to pon down given of how rare of a skillset he has -but Malkin remains by far the closest one (everyone understands McDavid gave an absurdly twam friendly deal) and Eichels production is a shadow of what Matthew's was putting up when he signed his contract -goal scoring especiay),

And we've had this discussion regarding bonuses before- imo it's clear that the team is taking the position that the front loaded structure is to make them moreoveable in those final couple years (Matthew's is only getting 15 mil in real money for those last 24 months).

Matthews also has a nmc that year. Why would a team sign utterly elite superstars to “tradeable” contracts? The same people that say things like “You NEVER trade players like Matthews and Marner” are now saying that Dubas is trying to increase their trade value?

I also love that you used points when describing Nylanders comparables, but then goals for Matthews. There is no consistency.

 

[Orfieus]

Dubas is a f***ing joke and should've been head scout and not a GM

Kyle "the Players GM" Dubas

 

[Boutette]

Matthews contract is within the range of his recent comparables on an 8 year term. Not 5. (FOUR ufa years, not one).

Kyle Connors contract makes Nylanders look like a pretty big joke. They have the same points over their 2 years, but Connor was a proven 34 goal scorer (as opposed to Nylanders 22), and scored around 25 more elc goals. So right there alone Connor deserved significantly more than Nylander.

But they signed for the precise same cap percentage, with Connor getting one extra year on term, and one extra ufa year. Let's also add that Connor has NO signing bonuses or front-loading, whereas Nylander made about HALF of his total contract within 7 months of signing. Nylanders contract is just as big of a joke as Dubas's other unprecedented dramatic overpayments.

And this is usually when the Dubas defenders start blabbing on about "the taxes. The taxes. the taxes."
Well, that bull**** excuse can't even be used this time. They pay the same taxes.

Its very clear why Nylander's and Marners contracts have been structured the way that they are. But that's clearly not the joke you think you are in on.

Winnipeg, though? I really don't understand why you are so envious of them. That org is a mess right now. The Leafs, not so much.

Honestly, the mods should split this thread as its turning into crazytown.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Boston is older, and Tampa lost D and depth.

I don't know if either team is demonstrably better or deeper than the Leafs right now, and that credit belongs to Dubas.

I'm gonna look it up later, but I'm 99% sure you said the exact same thing about Boston last year.

 

[Boutette]

I'm gonna look it up later, but I'm 99% sure you said the exact same thing about Boston last year.

Maybe he did, but how long can the Bruins top line hold off father time?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Its very clear why Nylander's and Marners contracts have been structured the way that they are. But that's clearly not the joke you think you are in on.

Winnipeg, though? I really don't understand why you are so envious of them. That org is a mess right now. The Leafs, not so much.

Honestly, the mods should split this thread as its turning into crazytown.

So you think Dubas's plan is to trade all of his young stars when they're around 25 years old? How does that make any sense?
Sure, I get that maybe that's the plan for players like Johnsson, Kapanen, and Kerfoot... but those contracts are barely even front-loaded in comparison.

If it was all about trade value, then why does Tavares have one of the most front-loaded contracts EVER, while also having a nmc every season? Make no mistake... it's the PLAYERS that want to be paid in signing bonuses/front-loading. They DESPERATELY want it. Having all that money upfront to invest will make them SO MUCH MORE MONEY than whatever tax benefit nonsense excuse people make. And only so many teams can do it. That SHOULD be leverage. A good gm would find a way to use that as leverage.

 

[kb]

I'm gonna look it up later, but I'm 99% sure you said the exact same thing about Boston last year.

Well, they are older and not demonstrably better today. What does saying that last year (if I did) have to do with this season?

 

[Boutette]

So you think Dubas's plan is to trade all of his young stars when they're around 25 years old? How does that make any sense?
Sure, I get that maybe that's the plan for players like Johnsson, Kapanen, and Kerfoot... but those contracts are barely even front-loaded in comparison.

If it was all about trade value, then why does Tavares have one of the most front-loaded contracts EVER, while also having a nmc every season? Make no mistake... it's the PLAYERS that want to be paid in signing bonuses/front-loading. They DESPERATELY want it. Having all that money upfront to invest will make them SO MUCH MORE MONEY than whatever tax benefit nonsense excuse people make. And only so many teams can do it. That SHOULD be leverage. A good gm would find a way to use that as leverage.

IMO, a good NHL GM's job is to ice a team that can win and to make his boss happy. When you provide evidence that Dubas isn't doing either of these, you get back to me, because a team that can make 100 points a season to me is a team that can and there's no indication that Dubas is going to be let go any time soon because the folks who pull his strings allowed all these deals to go through. Your actual problem is with MLSE for not engaging in Harold Ballard-like tactics.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

This thread is done lol. Someone should close it.

Kessel is gone, Kadri is gone, Gardiner is gone, Nylander isn't doing bad anymore, so the new whipping boy is ... Kyle Dubas? That's a first

 

[Throw More Waffles]

IMO, a good NHL GM's job is to ice a team that can win and to make his boss happy. When you provide evidence that Dubas isn't doing either of these, you get back to me, because a team that can make 100 points a season to me is a team that can and there's no indication that Dubas is going to be let go any time soon because the folks who pull his strings allowed all these deals to go through. Your actual problem is with MLSE for not engaging in Harold Ballard-like tactics.

Yes, the gm should do things to help make the team win. Unprecedented dramatic overpayments don't help teams win though... it's the precise opposite.

 

[Boutette]

Unprecedented dramatic overpayments don't help teams win though... it's the precise opposite.

I guess that might be the case if your argument had any basis in reality.