Kyle Dubas appreciation / hot seat discussion ***Mod warning in OP***

[LeafingTheWay]

You don’t send back 20 year old 2nd rounders. It’s truly a smartest man in the room play for some sort of new development strategy. Hollowell, fine it’s a 4th rounder. But you don’t send players entering their 20 year old season if you just used a 2nd rounder on them. You don’t sign Jordan Subban. At least leave that spot open, for one of the two to take.

Why aren't you allowed to send back 19/20 year old 2nd rounders? Where is this unwritten law lol ...

 

[93LEAFS]

Why aren't you allowed to send back 19/20 year old 2nd rounders? Where is this unwritten law lol ...

It never happens. Durzi is the first pick that high to be sent back to junior as an overager in recent memory. If you think a player entering his overager season is good enough to go in the 2nd round, he better be ready to get an AHL spot over Loverde or Jordan Subban.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Personally I care more that he's made the team better than that he hasn't signed the most optimal contracts, but that's just me

 

[7even]

Wait how can a thread be both an appreciation and hot seat discussion at the same time

 

[Pocket Hercules]

It never happens. Durzi is the first pick that high to be sent back to junior as an overager in recent memory. If you think a player entering his overager season is good enough to go in the 2nd round, he better be ready to get an AHL spot over Loverde or Jordan Subban.

I don't see how playing against prospects within a 2 year age gap is considered worse for their development than sticking them in the league full of pseudo-NHLers...but that's just me.

 

[Stephen]

All the off ice drama aside, this team is looking pretty stacked.

 

[93LEAFS]

I don't see how playing against prospects within a 2 year age gap is considered worse for their development than sticking them in the league full of pseudo-NHLers...but that's just me.

Because a 2nd rounder at 20 should be AHL ready or atleast clearly above junior. Like Dermott, and pretty much all 2nd round picks who hit are. Some play in overseas leagues, but you don't draft a 19 year old to send him back to the AHL. You think the Caps are going to send Leason back to Prince Albert.

 

[Menzinger]

Personally I care more that he's made the team better than that he hasn't signed the most optimal contracts, but that's just me

Which is probably a healthier way to look at it.

Is this the best Leafs team on paper in almost 15+ years? Yep.

Has Dubas "won" every micro move/decision hes made? Nope.

Personally the former is more important to me than the latter by a fair margin. But then again, I'm a Leafs fan, not someone overly invested in haiting an individual management personnel.

 

[Pocket Hercules]

Because a 2nd rounder at 20 should be AHL ready or atleast clearly above junior. Like Dermott, and pretty much all 2nd round picks who hit are. Some play in overseas leagues, but you don't draft a 19 year old to send him back to the AHL. You think the Caps are going to send Leason back to Prince Albert.

I think you're being a little too rigid with your expectations. Adam Oates played in the NCAA until he was 23 yrs old, and signed with Detroit as an undrafted FA. Did playing in a lesser league with players not as talented as him stifle his development curve? I know he's an exception, but my point us that development isn't necessarily a linear process.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think you're being a little too rigid with your expectations. Adam Oates played in the NCAA until he was 23 yrs old, and signed with Detroit as an undrafted FA. Did playing in a lesser league with players not as talented as him stifle his development curve? I know he's an exception, but my point us that development isn't necessarily a linear process.

What asset was invested in Adam Oates? He was an Undrafted FA. You want to pick exceptions? How about I pick the norm. Like 99% of players who play in the CHL at 20 don't amount into NHLers of any value. You can find exceptions like Spurgeon, Muzzin or David Clarkson. So, you are basically saying let's hope our 2nd round pick is a sizable exception, compared to the usual 15% to 30% odds that most 2nd round picks usually are to become something of value. My point is, if you are deeming someone worthy of being drafted in the 2nd round as a 19 year old in the CHL, you better think they are AHL ready, and leave a spot open for them. It seems like a miscalculation on all levels.

Also, anyone notice how Connor's deal ended up being better than Nylander. paid .2m more, isn't front loaded (which is to the players advantage), has no lockout protection, is signed for one year longer and gave up 3 UFA years to Nylander's 1. They are also very comparable players, with many saying Matthews deal was worthwhile against Marner because goals are at a premium, Connor scores goals at a significantly better rate than Willy.

 

[Critical13]

The fact that this thread is the most active thread on our board is an embarrassment.

Dubas killed it this offseason, and the Sandin pick is looking like gold. Moving dead weight and brining in Mik for nothing? Incredible.

He rid us of all of Lou’s mistakes and managed to improve depth while
Locking up our core for 5 years.

Put away your cap spreadsheets and enjoy the on ice product. It’s going to be an incredibly entertaining season.

 

[Antropovsky]

Meh... marner contract has put a sour taste in my mouth. In an otherwise flawless offseason by Dubas.

2 million and 1 year less than Rantanen

Someone make me feel better and tell me something about taxes and how it evens out or something.

 

[cipher]

Meh... marner contract has put a sour taste in my mouth. In an otherwise flawless offseason by Dubas.

2 million and 1 year less than Rantanen

Someone make me feel better and tell me something about taxes and how it evens out or something.

They both have the exact same six year term and the difference between their contracts is 1.64M.

Even though I believe he's a better player do I think Marner was overpaid? Yes I do, as I think he should have come in around 10M for his 6 year term, however overpaying one of our starts by 1M isn't the end of the world, especially when we did a good job with other signings like Kapanen/Johnsson.

 

[lebdafor norris]

Meh... marner contract has put a sour taste in my mouth. In an otherwise flawless offseason by Dubas.

2 million and 1 year less than Rantanen

Someone make me feel better and tell me something about taxes and how it evens out or something.

Tavares is a Leaf, AJ and Kap actually got decent RFA contracts......... Well, I dont know what else I can tell you about Dubas' signings to make you feel better.

 

[hotpaws]

They both have the exact same six year term and the difference between their contracts is 1.64M.

Even though I believe he's a better player do I think Marner was overpaid? Yes I do, as I think he should have come in around 10M for his 6 year term, however overpaying one of our starts by 1M isn't the end of the world, especially when we did a good job with other signings like Kapanen/Johnsson.

what did you think Kap/Johnson were going to sign for after the rookie seasons they had if you think Dubas did a "good job" on there deals ?

 

[Menzinger]

What asset was invested in Adam Oates? He was an Undrafted FA. You want to pick exceptions? How about I pick the norm. Like 99% of players who play in the CHL at 20 don't amount into NHLers of any value. You can find exceptions like Spurgeon, Muzzin or David Clarkson. So, you are basically saying let's hope our 2nd round pick is a sizable exception, compared to the usual 15% to 30% odds that most 2nd round picks usually are to become something of value. My point is, if you are deeming someone worthy of being drafted in the 2nd round as a 19 year old in the CHL, you better think they are AHL ready, and leave a spot open for them. It seems like a miscalculation on all levels.

Also, anyone notice how Connor's deal ended up being better than Nylander. paid .2m more, isn't front loaded (which is to the players advantage), has no lockout protection, is signed for one year longer and gave up 3 UFA years to Nylander's 1. They are also very comparable players, with many saying Matthews deal was worthwhile against Marner because goals are at a premium, Connor scores goals at a significantly better rate than Willy.

So comparable players sign fairly comparable contracts, and we should consider this slight against Dubas?

You're stretching here again

 

[Antropovsky]

Tavares is a Leaf, AJ and Kap actually got decent RFA contracts......... Well, I dont know what else I can tell you about Dubas' signings to make you feel better.

I think Dubas is a phenomenal gm, no need to sell me on his transactions. I just dont get the Marner deal...mostly because I dont see him as a clear cut better player then the likes of Aho, Point and Rantanen. Hopefully Marner proves me wrong though.

 

[Drytoast]

Cap friendly tax calculator. Take a look

canadian to united states exchange rate should nullify that advantage.

Exchange Rate Canadian Dollar to US Dollar (Currency Calculator) - X-Rates

 

[hector morrison]

Man...Anyone thinking Dubas hasn't done well needs to review what he did. I bet it took a lot of thought and some of the moves were thought to be impossible. Gave the kids too much money? Ok,maybe...time will tell won't it! If the Leafs win the Cup soon,will you still say they are overpaid? i doubt the money will matter if that is achieved. Not sure about you all,but,These kids are some of the best players I've seen in a Leaf uniform in quite a while...The final on ice product that Dubas has assembled is looking promising...drop the puck!

 

[Drytoast]

Tavares is a Leaf, AJ and Kap actually got decent RFA contracts......... Well, I dont know what else I can tell you about Dubas' signings to make you feel better.

Considering Stamkos signed a year earlier for 9.5 mil. Tavares was an over pay of 1.5 mil of the same player. And don't say inflation because it appears that inflation didn't happen outside of Toronto. And I don't care if Tavares was offered more to play elsewhere. So was Stamkos.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

What asset was invested in Adam Oates? He was an Undrafted FA. You want to pick exceptions? How about I pick the norm. Like 99% of players who play in the CHL at 20 don't amount into NHLers of any value. You can find exceptions like Spurgeon, Muzzin or David Clarkson. So, you are basically saying let's hope our 2nd round pick is a sizable exception, compared to the usual 15% to 30% odds that most 2nd round picks usually are to become something of value. My point is, if you are deeming someone worthy of being drafted in the 2nd round as a 19 year old in the CHL, you better think they are AHL ready, and leave a spot open for them. It seems like a miscalculation on all levels.

Also, anyone notice how Connor's deal ended up being better than Nylander. paid .2m more, isn't front loaded (which is to the players advantage), has no lockout protection, is signed for one year longer and gave up 3 UFA years to Nylander's 1. They are also very comparable players, with many saying Matthews deal was worthwhile against Marner because goals are at a premium, Connor scores goals at a significantly better rate than Willy.

Why are we complaining about a 2nd round pick that isn't even in our system anymore and that we used to upgrade significantly on the back end with Muzzin?

Durzi was coming off a pretty serious injury if I recall correctly and he definitely wasn't ready to play in the AHL last year. Even if that pick is a miss to you he's gone anyways so who cares? lol

 

[Menzinger]

Considering Stamkos signed a year earlier for 9.5 mil. Tavares was an over pay of 1.5 mil of the same player. And don't say inflation because it appears that inflation didn't happen outside of Toronto. And I don't care if Tavares was offered more to play elsewhere. So was Stamkos.

Stamkos got an 8th year and likely gave Tampa a discount (as did JT with the Leafs)

 

[lebdafor norris]

I think Dubas is a phenomenal gm, no need to sell me on his transactions. I just dont get the Marner deal...mostly because I dont see him as a clear cut better player then the likes of Aho, Point and Rantanen. Hopefully Marner proves me wrong though.

I agree, I was just listing the good/ok signings Dubas made to make you feel better, but the guy has definitely dropped the ball with his handling of the trio. If Sandin does break out and turn into a Chabot lite players (just an example) I would have absolutely no faith in Kyle Dubas to negotiate even a market deal with him. The "Kyle Dubas premium" that people on the main boards were throwing around a couple months ago is a real thing, sadly.

 

[hotpaws]

Stamkos got an 8th year and likely gave Tampa a discount (as did JT with the Leafs)

Stamkos signed for 8.5m and "likely" gave them a discount , lol .

and only some of my fellow Leaf fans believe JT deserves to be the highest paid in the league and base there opinion that he gave a discount on that , lol

 

[lebdafor norris]

Considering Stamkos signed a year earlier for 9.5 mil. Tavares was an over pay of 1.5 mil of the same player. And don't say inflation because it appears that inflation didn't happen outside of Toronto. And I don't care if Tavares was offered more to play elsewhere. So was Stamkos.

JT was rumored to have been offered 13 mill by San Jose and 11mill+ for 8 years by Isles, so I do considered the JT signing to be "below market value," especially with the recent Panarin and Jeff Skinner deals. Still, Dubas completely dropped the ball on the young Leaf trio, as bad as Marner's contract is in comparison to Aho and Rantanen, the AM contract is still the worst, I mean using McDavid as his comparable was bad enough but when McDavid signed his deal for 16+ % of the cap, they were using the cap ceiling a year prior to when McDavid's new contract took full effect, on the other had, the cap ceiling they were using forthe potential 8 year AM contract was the 83+ rumored cap ceiling for 19/20, essentially, they felt that AM deserves more $$ than McDavid even if you adjust for cap inflation, ridiculous.