Kyle Dubas appreciation / hot seat discussion ***Mod warning in OP***

[93LEAFS]

You don't play an entire team of prospects/youngsters in the AHL. The AHL is not to be confused with a prospects league. AHL is a pro-league, not a league for solely youngsters.

I want to emphasize this:

You DON'T play an entire group of all 20-25 year old Ds in the AHL. You DON'T play a RHD-group of Lilijegren (19 years old), Durzi (20 years old), Hollowell (20 years old) in the AHL. That's ridiculous.

^ Aside from my above explaination, Dubas is known for his prospects development, so I'll trust him here.

The main issue is Durzi. Again, if you don’t have AHL spots available, than don’t draft overagers you will need to stick in the CHL another year. Pick someone like Addison. You don’t draft guys in the 2nd round who have to be in the CHL at 20.

 

[thewave]

The ones people praise such as Dermott, Bracco etc. There isn’t any evidence Dubas is a good drafter, yet this is constantly claimed. The only evidence is Sandin. SDA and Durzi are both less valuable than when they were drafted. I said at the time Durzi was a bad pick, and if he wasn’t in the AHL at 20 it’s a pretty ridiculous pick.

Good points

 

[AllDay28]

The main issue is Durzi. Again, if you don’t have AHL spots available, than don’t draft overagers you will need to stick in the CHL another year. Pick someone like Addison. You don’t draft guys in the 2nd round who have to be in the CHL at 20.

imagine thinking 2nd rounders matter all that much. Might wanna go look up the low, real low, percentage of 2nd rounders+ who make the NHL before you go complaining about a potentially wasted 2nd and 4th round pick.

Also if Dubas gets a superstar in Sandin, lol who gives a shit about Durzi and SDA.

 

[Pocket Hercules]

The main issue is Durzi. Again, if you don’t have AHL spots available, than don’t draft overagers you will need to stick in the CHL another year. Pick someone like Addison. You don’t draft guys in the 2nd round who have to be in the CHL at 20.

Why is that?

 

[93LEAFS]

imagine thinking 2nd rounders matter all that much. Might wanna go look up the low, real low, percentage of 2nd rounders+ who make the NHL before you go complaining about a potentially wasted 2nd and 4th round pick.

Also if Dubas gets a superstar in Sandin, lol who gives a **** about Durzi and SDA.

I know the percentages. But, you shouldn’t be drafting overagers if you don’t have a plan above the CHL for them.

 

[93LEAFS]

Why is that?

Because the players who are overagers in the CHL who amount to anything are extreme outliers. Yes, you see cases like Muzzin. But, if you are investing a 2nd round pick in a 19 year old they should be ready to play in pro-hockey.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

The main issue is Durzi. Again, if you don’t have AHL spots available, than don’t draft overagers you will need to stick in the CHL another year. Pick someone like Addison. You don’t draft guys in the 2nd round who have to be in the CHL at 20.

I liked Addison too. Before the 2nd round started, I really wanted Akil Thomas (underage offensive C), Addison (underage offensive RHD), or Durzi (overage two-way D). I was happy to get one of them.

BUT the issue with your argument is this: You DON'T draft based on if you have spots on your AHL roster, that's just silly. You draft based on BPA. If Dubas liked Durzi as the BPA, then there's zero issue.

Put yourself in a Leafs management's shoes in 2017-2018. Your NHL D-core is not great, you have Dermott developing, you just drafted Lilijegren the year before, and you just drafted Sandin in the 1st round. Your AHL D-core doesn't look good (Didn't have Rosen/Borgman/Sandin/Lilijegren on the AHL team then), you have no idea what it'll look like. Do you honestly skip out on your BPA because you think there's going to be no room on the AHL lineup when he's 20 years old???

 

[93LEAFS]

I liked Addison too. Before the 2nd round started, I really wanted Akil Thomas (underage offensive C), Addison (underage offensive RHD), or Durzi (overage two-way D). I was happy to get one of them.

BUT the issue with your argument is this: You DON'T draft based on if you have spots on your AHL roster, that's just silly. You draft based on BPA. If Dubas liked Durzi as the BPA, then there's zero issue.

Put yourself in a Leafs management's shoes in 2017-2018. Your NHL D-core is not great, you have Dermott developing, you just drafted Lilijegren the year before, and you just drafted Sandin in the 1st round. Your AHL D-core doesn't look good (Didn't have Rosen/Borgman/Sandin/Lilijegren on the AHL team then), you have no idea what it'll look like. Do you honestly skip out on your BPA because you think there's going to be no room on the AHL lineup when he's 20 years old???

If he’s the BPA based on projection in the 2nd round then he should clearly be AHL ready, which means you create the space by not signing Jordan Subban.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

I know the percentages. But, you shouldn’t be drafting overagers if you don’t have a plan above the CHL for them.

Because the players who are overagers in the CHL who amount to anything are extreme outliers. Yes, you see cases like Muzzin. But, if you are investing a 2nd round pick in a 19 year old they should be ready to play in pro-hockey.

Again, I don't know where you are getting the bolded from. He would have to be Sandin/Lilijegren level to force Dubas to play an ALL RHD group of 19-20 year olds.

 

[Pocket Hercules]

Because the players who are overagers in the CHL who amount to anything are extreme outliers. Yes, you see cases like Muzzin. But, if you are investing a 2nd round pick in a 19 year old they should be ready to play in pro-hockey.

Fair point. But the whole 'overagers who play in CHL/NCAA argument' can be hyperbolic and misleading alot of the time as there have been plenty of great players who followed the same development path.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

If he’s the BPA based on projection in the 2nd round then he should clearly be AHL ready, which means you create the space by not signing Jordan Subban.

Dude ... I already said this but: You DON'T play a 19 year old and 2 20 year olds as your RHD group in the Marlies. That's silly.

This is the AHL, you don't develop players by playing an all-rookie AHL team.

 

[93LEAFS]

Again, I don't know where you are getting the bolded from. He would have to be Sandin/Lilijegren level to force Dubas to play an ALL RHD group of 19-20 year olds.

No team drafts a guy in the 2nd to send him back. You think Brett Leason will be back in the Prince Albert this year? Hollowell I can atleast understand sending back given the asset used. But you shouldn’t be using 2nd rounders in 19 year olds in the CHL who either aren’t AHL ready.

Again, Sandin isn’t a RHD, he’s a LHD. So the only young RHD is Liljegren.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

The main issue is Durzi. Again, if you don’t have AHL spots available, than don’t draft overagers you will need to stick in the CHL another year. Pick someone like Addison. You don’t draft guys in the 2nd round who have to be in the CHL at 20.

I wasn't a fan of the 2018 draft, probably my least favourite move until Marner signed for 1.5 mill, but he also only had a few weeks to make that board. Also guys like Addison are not exactly progressing extremely well, Sandin is doing about as well as expected (if not better), Hollowell is doing a lot better than expected, and Dubas was able to trade Durzi for value...

I like his philosophy and his 2019 draft seems promising; at least good pick value. That's the main thing.

 

[93LEAFS]

I wasn't a fan of the 2018 draft, probably my least favourite move until Marner signed for 1.5 mill, but he also only had a few weeks to make that board. Also guys like Addison are not exactly progressing extremely well, Sandin is doing about as well as expected (if not better), Hollowell is doing a lot better than expected, and Dubas was able to trade Durzi for value...

I don’t think Durzi was highly valued in that trade. I mean, if he was we overpaid for Muzzin given Grundstrom is pretty much a lock to be a top 9 forward and we gave up a first. I don’t agree with you assessment on Hollowell, drafted 20 year olds should be expected to do what he did in the OHL. Let’s see what he does in the AHL.

 

[Walshy7]

The ones people praise such as Dermott, Bracco etc. There isn’t any evidence Dubas is a good drafter, yet this is constantly claimed. The only evidence is Sandin. SDA and Durzi are both less valuable than when they were drafted. I said at the time Durzi was a bad pick, and if he wasn’t in the AHL at 20 it’s a pretty ridiculous pick.

no one thinks they are "big name picks" cmon, nice attempt at deflection though. Just type "i wrote something i thought no one would call me out on" next time

 

[NightTrain1]

Dubas has a solid A rating in my books. Just a wonderful job he's done pieces the complicated pieces of this team together, while unloading serious dead weight, and inserting what at this very moment looks like a sizeable upgrade to our lineup.

Before any of this contract madness, even before Nylanders contract there was a huge amount of talk about how the Leafs could never afford to have the money to keep their futures together. This was on the forums and on the sports shows. We had had two absolutely terrible inherited contracts nobody thought could be dealt. Starting last year we had one of the bottom 5-10 rated defenses in the league, with a lower middle rated bottom 6 which was also considered small and not physical.

Making only predictions based on what has been show thus far, our top 6 has actually improved yet again. Our bottom six has to be in early consideration for top 5 in the league for sure. Not only that it added size, physicality and speed. Our defense went from bottom 10 straight to top 10 in a matter of months and on top of that we possibly are seeing the emergence of a young star defenseman (also drafted by Dubas).

The next 5 years of this team looks extremely bright, even if have to lose someone. Given all the circumstances combined, Dubas has a lot of slack coming to him if the only thing this costs him is 3million over-payment across 3 star players.

Also not to forget, when that Seattle club joins the league the cap is not going to make a tiny bump up. That suckers going to leap.

 

[93LEAFS]

bias is biased man, that guys posts changed the minute dubas got hired. His prospect reports were really good until dubas was hired then there was a negative slant on every pick since, coincidence? no

We’re we’re my negative slants on Sandin or Robertson? I’ll wait. Most of the picks I disagreed with haven’t tracked all.

Just because I’m telling you something you don’t want to hear, doesn’t make me biased. I mean, if I didn’t like a player pre-draft I’m supposed to be sold on them because Dubas picked them?

But, I guess Dubas can do no wrong in your eyes. He doesn’t look ready for this job. Hopefully he proves me wrong. But, he got take to school by all of the big 3s agents.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

How is it the Leafs got the short end of the stick on every really big RFA we had.
What do u all think of Dubas now? I thought he was doing alright. but every time another RFA signs the Marner contract looks worse and worse.
Wish we never let Lou go for Dubas.

Lou was garbage. What has he done for the Islanders exactly?

Having said that, Dubas has overpaid on basically every big ticket free agent he has signed. I was fine with Tavares but Matthews got salary and the short term he wanted and Marner got way more than he deserved. Yeah sure he might have done a good job filling in the roster this season with bargain bin depth - we'll see how that plays out - but it's his own fault he had no other choice.

 

[dubey]

How is it the Leafs got the short end of the stick on every really big RFA we had.
What do u all think of Dubas now? I thought he was doing alright. but every time another RFA signs the Marner contract looks worse and worse.
Wish we never let Lou go for Dubas.

lol

Big YIKES

 

[LeafingTheWay]

No team drafts a guy in the 2nd to send him back. You think Brett Leason will be back in the Prince Albert this year? Hollowell I can atleast understand sending back given the asset used. But you shouldn’t be using 2nd rounders in 19 year olds in the CHL who either aren’t AHL ready.

Again, Sandin isn’t a RHD, he’s a LHD. So the only young RHD is Liljegren.

I never said Sandin was a RHD lol. You said you previously (before this post) that you wanted Hollowell and Durzi both to be in the AHL, hence the 3 young RHD.

That doesn't make sense though. Durzi was a 19 year old this time last year (turned 20 in late Oct). If Dubas felt like Durzi would be better off dominating the CHL rather than playing limited minutes as the 6th D behind Rosen, Borgman, Lilijegren, Sandin, LoVerde, then what's the issue? You want a competitive AHL team, not just all young guys on D (other than LoVerde) developing.

Defensemen aren't too be rushed in developing like that. Be patient lol (He'll be maybe decent for LA in a few years). At 20 years old, he still has a good 2-4 years of developing in the AHL to do.

 

[AcerComputer]

Or Dubas who signed Ceci for the same money for 1 year? Yay instability! Zaitsev was fine.

He wanted out. That should concern you more

Rather have 1 year of Ceci than pay another 1st rounder to offload Zaitsev.

 

[93LEAFS]

I never said Sandin was a RHD lol. You said you previously (before this post) that you wanted Hollowell and Durzi both to be in the AHL, hence the 3 young RHD.

That doesn't make sense though. Durzi was a 19 year old this time last year (turned 20 in late Oct). If Dubas felt like Durzi would be better off dominating the CHL rather than playing limited minutes as the 6th D behind Rosen, Borgman, Lilijegren, Sandin, LoVerde, then what's the issue? You want a competitive AHL team, not just all young guys on D (other than LoVerde) developing.

Defensemen aren't too be rushed in developing like that. Be patient lol (He'll be maybe decent for LA in a few years). At 20 years old, he still has a good 2-4 years of developing in the AHL to do.

You don’t send back 20 year old 2nd rounders. It’s truly a smartest man in the room play for some sort of new development strategy. Hollowell, fine it’s a 4th rounder. But you don’t send players entering their 20 year old season if you just used a 2nd rounder on them. You don’t sign Jordan Subban. At least leave that spot open, for one of the two to take.

 

[AcerComputer]

So Lou's mistakes make it OK for Dubas' ? Previous GM's poor performances should have nothing to do with Dubas'.

Did you just ignore the comment I was responding to?

 

[crump]

I like what he's done to this team in a mere couple of months. Regardless of the cap and UFA defensemen next season, he found a way to improve for this season, not just hold the status quo or lose ground. With the natural improvement of the young core through just aging year with another year of experience, this team is a contender again this season. Added depth to both the NHL team and the prospect pool. FA signings like Mikheyev are turning into real finds. Found a way to shed horrid contracts and make room for Marner longer term than these bridge deals we are seeing recently. Trading from strength to boost the areas of need. I applaud him for his work this summer.

 

[AcerComputer]

You don’t send back 20 year old 2nd rounders. It’s truly a smartest man in the room play for some sort of new development strategy. Hollowell, fine it’s a 4th rounder. But you don’t send players entering their 20 year old season if you just used a 2nd rounder on them. You don’t sign Jordan Subban. At least leave that spot open, for one of the two to take.

I think drafting Durzi with that pick, than trading him away was more of an issue.