Value of: Kotkaniemi extension

[BLNY]

I'm not convinced they sign him to a contract at all. That doesn't mean I'd be surprised if they did, I just lean towards no. Why?

• Even though Necas is having an off year, he's done more - yes he's older. He's also homegrown and I think that means something. As a pending RFA, I think he'd be a priority.
  
• Niederreiter and Trochek. I don't know enough about the Canes prospect pool to know if the depth is there to let both walk. They're two pretty important pieces. I have to think at least one stays.
• They've only got 3 defenders signed for next season.
• I am not convinced the signing wasn't primarily motivated to try ant put Montreal over a barrel. Getting the player was secondary.

 

[bleedgreen]

I'm not convinced they sign him to a contract at all. That doesn't mean I'd be surprised if they did, I just lean towards no. Why?

• Even though Necas is having an off year, he's done more - yes he's older. He's also homegrown and I think that means something. As a pending RFA, I think he'd be a priority.
  
• Niederreiter and Trochek. I don't know enough about the Canes prospect pool to know if the depth is there to let both walk. They're two pretty important pieces. I have to think at least one stays.
• They've only got 3 defenders signed for next season.
• I am not convinced the signing wasn't primarily motivated to try ant put Montreal over a barrel. Getting the player was secondary.

The fact people are still falling for the last part is hysterical. They’ve already said they let the Canes fairly infamous pr group have their way with the situation to have fun with it. In no way was getting the player secondary. There’s no guarantee they’ll sign him but that has nothing to do with how they got him. The current regime takes chances. We’re losing Staal and almost definitely Trocheck here in the near future. Having a young 20’s center to take one of their spots was the obvious reason for this transaction. He’s done pretty well, but I don’t know that we assume as Canes fans that this will end with him signed to a reasonable contract.

 

[BLNY]

The fact people are still falling for the last part is hysterical. They’ve already said they let the Canes fairly infamous pr group have their way with the situation to have fun with it. In no way was getting the player secondary. There’s no guarantee they’ll sign him but that has nothing to do with how they got him. The current regime takes chances. We’re losing Staal and almost definitely Trocheck here in the near future. Having a young 20’s center to take one of their spots was the obvious reason for this transaction. He’s done pretty well, but I don’t know that we assume as Canes fans that this will end with him signed to a reasonable contract.

Has nothing to do with "falling" for anything, or what their PR may or may not have said. I don't follow their social media, so I have no idea and therefore was not influenced. That said, it wouldn't be the first time a PR group spun a web contradictory to what management's actual motives were.

Obviously the only people that know for sure are Canes staff. There's no guarantee that letting him walk after the season is proof that they didn't have long term plans for the player either. I do believe it's fair to question their actual commitment to the player though, and it belongs on the list of possible reasons as much as any other.

 

[Not The One]

Looking at KK's game logs with the Canes I really don't see much more than what he was doing with the Habs, except he's doing it on a more complete team.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi Stats and News

He'll score two goals in two games, or two goals in one game and then nothing for 8-10 games. He got a third of his points in a span of 6 games. He's got 3 assists and no goals in 51 minutes on the PP (one primary and two secondary). He still doesn't play on the PK. Judging from his flaceoffs he gets less defensive assignements than other centers on the team.

What is going his future role? Seems to me he's getting mostly pedestrian stats and the only notable thing about him is his youth. There are signs of improvement this year but he's playing on a different team with a much stronger supporting cast around him, so it's hard to say where the actual improvement comes from.

Does this warrant a 4-5-6 million per year long term contract? Will he look for another team with a bigger place for him next summer?

 

[the halleJOKEL]

Has nothing to do with "falling" for anything, or what their PR may or may not have said. I don't follow their social media, so I have no idea and therefore was not influenced. That said, it wouldn't be the first time a PR group spun a web contradictory to what management's actual motives were.

Obviously the only people that know for sure are Canes staff. There's no guarantee that letting him walk after the season is proof that they didn't have long term plans for the player either. I do believe it's fair to question their actual commitment to the player though, and it belongs on the list of possible reasons as much as any other.

there was a whole article released showing behind the scenes of the PR portion of the situation at some point, but forget if that was on the athletic or elsewhere

 

[spockBokk]

The Canes will have roughly $29M in cap space going into the summer. Granted, they will have a bunch of slots to fill with all the 1yr deals they handed out last summer and guys hitting UFA. However, they shouldn’t really have issues signing TDA, Necas and Kotkaniemi to extensions.

Losing Trocheck and Niederreiter would hurt, but I’m convinced they’ll make a competitive offer to retain one of them (my $$$ would be on Niederreiter as he’d cost less) and wouldn’t be surprised if they roll into next year with:

Teravainen-Aho-Necas
Svechnikov-Kotkaniemi-Jarvis
Niederreiter-Staal-Fast
Martinook-Drury-???

Slavin-TDA
Skjei-Pesce
???-Chatfield/Keane/Bear

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Sure there is, he's on a soon to expire RFA contract. That's really standard

Well duh... but context is important and how we got to this point is anything but traditional. Don't be surprised if the outcome is a bit different as well. You, yourself, didn't even list him and the Canes coming to an agreement before QO/Arb/UFA as a possibility when that may in fact be the most likely thing to happen.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

But why would Necas accept less then Kotkaniemi?

It depends on term for both of them. As has been mentioned in this thread, Necas has been inconsistent and a bit disappointing this year. He's lost negotiating power this offseason. He's been getting prime teammates, minutes, and opportunities this year except for PP1 and he's not really blowing KK out of the water who has done pretty well with the scraps he's been given and filling in all over the lineup when needed. They are both potentially important pieces that the Canes would like to lock up moving forward but their values aren't super far off from each other. KK also has better a bargaining position vs. Necas based on his situation to become a UFA and QO and all that.

Necas IS the better player and if he signs long term then he'll get a higher AAV than KK but if he bridges for 2 years and KK signs for 4-5 years then maybe not.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Well duh... but context is important and how we got to this point is anything but traditional. Don't be surprised if the outcome is a bit different as well. You, yourself, didn't even list him and the Canes coming to an agreement before QO/Arb/UFA as a possibility when that may in fact be the most likely thing to happen.

Because im pretty sure they can't, and I haven't seen any examples saying they can. As stated earlier, find me a single pending RFA that signs for less than their QO. My understanding is that part of the CBA that the NHLPA fought for is the QO must be upheld if the team wants to retain rights, team filed arbitration being the only exception

 

[Not The One]

The Canes will have roughly $29M in cap space going into the summer. Granted, they will have a bunch of slots to fill with all the 1yr deals they handed out last summer and guys hitting UFA. However, they shouldn’t really have issues signing TDA, Necas and Kotkaniemi to extensions.

Losing Trocheck and Niederreiter would hurt, but I’m convinced they’ll make a competitive offer to retain one of them (my $$$ would be on Niederreiter as he’d cost less) and wouldn’t be surprised if they roll into next year with:

Teravainen-Aho-Necas
Svechnikov-Kotkaniemi-Jarvis
Niederreiter-Staal-Fast
Martinook-Drury-???

Slavin-TDA
Skjei-Pesce
???-Chatfield/Keane/Bear

Disclaimer: I haven't watched the Canes, just looked at stats.

I see that currently Trocheck has currently taken 4x as many faceoffs as KK, including more than 6x as many defensive faceoffs. He plays 5 minutes more per game, has 100 more minutes in total on the PP and 85 more minutes on the PK (vs zero for KK). He also has one of the best goal differentials on his team while KK has one of the worst.

Over the last few years there is a vocal contingent of Habs fans that thought that Danault was somehow cannibalizing KK's incetime and linemates and that KK would "replace" and improve everything Danault did. I was told that anybody can play defensive hockey. Sadly we didn't get to find that how this would have turned out on the Habs this year but I would look forward to seeing a similar outcome in Caroline with Trocheck/KK.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Because im pretty sure they can't, and I haven't seen any examples saying they can. As stated earlier, find me a single pending RFA that signs for less than their QO. My understanding is that part of the CBA that the NHLPA fought for is the QO must be upheld if the team wants to retain rights, team filed arbitration being the only exception

Interesting. Not being confrontational, but can you point me to the section in the CBA that specifically states this? I'm no CBA expert and did a quick perusal of it but didn't see that stated specifically so am curious if it is truly "not allowed under the CBA" or "just never happens in normal course of business because usually players are worth about their QO or the teams move on".

Clearly if it's "not allowed in the CBA", then you are 100% correct and the circumstances that brought about his current salary is 100% irrelevant and I agree completely with you.

After the initial Offer sheet, I remember reading a number of pundits stating that the team was looking at a long term deal that wasn't at $6.1M so I'm curious. Of course, pundits are often wrong when it comes to the CBA so I'm not taking their word as gospel either.

For instance, this article references Friedman and Marek stating a long term deal would likely be less than the QO.

https://nhltradetalk.com/hurricanes-have-long-term-deal-figured-for-kotkaniemi/

 

[StreetHawk]

Because im pretty sure they can't, and I haven't seen any examples saying they can. As stated earlier, find me a single pending RFA that signs for less than their QO. My understanding is that part of the CBA that the NHLPA fought for is the QO must be upheld if the team wants to retain rights, team filed arbitration being the only exception

For some players, like the Canucks former Dmen in Stecher and Hutton, neither was qualified and they both ended up with deals as ufa below their QO number.

so the agent has to read the market to figure out what it will pay the client. Then it’s up to the player to decide if he wishes to sign either with the current team or with another club at a number below the QO.

 

[OrangePMD]

Because im pretty sure they can't, and I haven't seen any examples saying they can. As stated earlier, find me a single pending RFA that signs for less than their QO. My understanding is that part of the CBA that the NHLPA fought for is the QO must be upheld if the team wants to retain rights, team filed arbitration being the only exception

There are many examples. But they are fringe NHLers and AHL guys, and those contracts usually come with better guaranteed minor league salary as a trade-off. So not in any way comparable situations to Kotkaniemi.

 

[Number 57]

Because im pretty sure they can't, and I haven't seen any examples saying they can. As stated earlier, find me a single pending RFA that signs for less than their QO. My understanding is that part of the CBA that the NHLPA fought for is the QO must be upheld if the team wants to retain rights, team filed arbitration being the only exception

There is absolutely nothing stopping KK and the Canes coming to an agreement on an extension for a lower amount.

But KK is not forced to sign anything lower than his QO and can walk if need be

 

[the paisanos guy]

There is absolutely nothing stopping KK and the Canes coming to an agreement on an extension for a lower amount.

But KK is not forced to sign anything lower than his QO and can walk if need be

Bang on. QO is needed to retain rights, but retaining rights is irrelevant if he is signed.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

There is absolutely nothing stopping KK and the Canes coming to an agreement on an extension for a lower amount.

But KK is not forced to sign anything lower than his QO and can walk if need be

And do you have proof of this?

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

For some players, like the Canucks former Dmen in Stecher and Hutton, neither was qualified and they both ended up with deals as ufa below their QO number.

so the agent has to read the market to figure out what it will pay the client. Then it’s up to the player to decide if he wishes to sign either with the current team or with another club at a number below the QO.

You just said they werent qualified and became UFA's that means they do not fit the cirteria

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Interesting. Not being confrontational, but can you point me to the section in the CBA that specifically states this? I'm no CBA expert and did a quick perusal of it but didn't see that stated specifically so am curious if it is truly "not allowed under the CBA" or "just never happens in normal course of business because usually players are worth about their QO or the teams move on".

Clearly if it's "not allowed in the CBA", then you are 100% correct and the circumstances that brought about his current salary is 100% irrelevant and I agree completely with you.

After the initial Offer sheet, I remember reading a number of pundits stating that the team was looking at a long term deal that wasn't at $6.1M so I'm curious. Of course, pundits are often wrong when it comes to the CBA so I'm not taking their word as gospel either.

For instance, this article references Friedman and Marek stating a long term deal would likely be less than the QO.

https://nhltradetalk.com/hurricanes-have-long-term-deal-figured-for-kotkaniemi/

The CBA specifies A Valid contract, they may very well include a players right to a minimum of their QO. Hence why I've been asking for an example to prove me wrong. This stretches beyond just KK here. Someone like Matthew Tkachuk could in theory sign for 8.5M long term too. Or Timo Meier could sign a fair deal as well.

The problem is, even Points extension was more than his QO was going to be

 

[Heffyhoof]

Getting more points, while averaging nearly a minute less in PP and TOI and being regularly put on the 4th line to grind. His points per 60 went from 1.9 in his rookie year, down to 1.0 and 1.4, now up to 2.3. Montreal stalled out his development and unfortunately couldn't hold onto him until the change in coaching and management.

Canes can still likely get 4.5ish for 4-5 years and wouldn't be surprised to see the AAV lower than that.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Genuinely curious, when was the last time this ever happened, the only somewhat similar examples I can think of are DeBrincat and Matthews but they signed an extension from their ELC and it was well over his QO. So is there an example of a pending RFA not coming off their ELC that signed an extension prior to Free Agency for less than their QO?

Ryan Hartman had a $1.9 mil QO and instead signed for $1.7 mil x 3 last April.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

While looking for that example, I was reminded of Ryan O’Reilly. He had a high QO via his offer sheet from Calgary. Colorado elected arbitration and the two sides settled for less (500k) on a 2 year deal. There’s a very comparable example for the team elected arbitration pathway.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Yes there are examples of guys taking less than their QO, but it's usually by a few hundred thousand... not 2 million.

If I were him, I'd hold out for 6.100, or become a UFA and go wherever I want. Unless of course he loves Carolina (impossible to tell since none of us know him).

 

[HabsAddict]

The most annoying thing is Hab fans who fantasize over his none existent "potential greatness". It's usually accompanied about how bad Bbinz was and that "if only" they had done this or that.

Perfect hindsight about NOTHING. This is NOT the one that great fish that "got away" unless we are comparing him to a carp.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Ryan Hartman had a $1.9 mil QO and instead signed for $1.7 mil x 3 last April.

Thank you for the example, only thing I'll argue on that is 1.7M was still well within the 85% range that Team Arbitration can give. Fair enough though, I appreciate someone finding me an example

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Thank you for the example, only thing I'll argue on that is 1.7M was still well within the 85% range that Team Arbitration can give. Fair enough though, I appreciate someone finding me an example

And this is why I mention that KK is an unusual case. Yes, of course his QO is $6.1 and is he wants to try and hold out for that or bank on a team signing him for close to that as a UFA then he’s more than allowed to do that… but he knows, his agent knows, and the rest of the world knows he’s not worth close to that amount.

Canes did him a solid by getting him out of MTL and into a good situation while getting him a lot of money this year. It doesn’t mean he’s now going to sign a DeAngelo deal with us or something but something in the 4x4 range seems about right.