Value of: Kotkaniemi extension

[GIN ANTONIC]

Who gets paid more as a RFA? KK or Necas?

Thats an interesting one and I think ultimately comes down to term. Necas is the better player now for sure but he has been inconsistent this year. The general consensus on the Canes board is that he will likely go the bridge route because he hasn’t shown enough to get big time money on a long term deal.

Now the Canes would be happy to sign him on a 6-8 year term but no way he gets $6AAV or more or at least he shouldn’t.

I suspect KK might get more money if he signs a longer deal in the 4 year range and Necas signed a two year but hard to say. If they sign contracts of the same length then Necas should be getting more 100%.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Thats an interesting one and I think ultimately comes down to term. Necas is the better player now for sure but he has been inconsistent this year. The general consensus on the Canes board is that he will likely go the bridge route because he hasn’t shown enough to get big time money on a long term deal.

Now the Canes would be happy to sign him on a 6-8 year term but no way he gets $6AAV or more or at least he shouldn’t.

I suspect KK might get more money if he signs a longer deal in the 4 year range and Necas signed a two year but hard to say. If they sign contracts of the same length then Necas should be getting more 100%.

I have no idea how that plays out but I'm curious to see how your GM manages it. Canes don't typically make bad moves of signings so I expect that it's solid when the dust settles. A part of me wonders what Necas and his agent are thinking due to the KK offer sheet and RFA threshold he has in leverage.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I have no idea how that plays out but I'm curious to see how your GM manages it. Canes don't typically make bad moves of signings so I expect that it's solid when the dust settles. A part of me wonders what Necas and his agent are thinking due to the KK offer sheet and RFA threshold he has in leverage.

Yup. Lots of mystery boxes in our off-season.

RFA’s in KK, Necas, TDA, Bear
UFA’s in Trochek and Nino (among others)

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yup. Lots of mystery boxes in our off-season.

RFA’s in KK, Necas, TDA, Bear
UFA’s in Trochek and Nino (among others)

I was looking at that yesterday. Might be a little reset/retool by letting some UFA's walk? Hard to say cause covid flat cap is still in play and middle of the line-up players will take a hit yet again

Deangelo is an interesting case too. What the hell does he get?

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I think you are misunderstanding.

There's option 4, which became available after Jan 1st 2022: The team is able to now negotiate and extension with Kotkaniemi and avoid the whole QO/Arbitration route. Just like all teams are able to negotiate extensions with RFAs, and many times do.

I'm not going to predict what option the team and Kotkaniemi will go down, but you are ignoring one option that exists.

Genuinely curious, when was the last time this ever happened, the only somewhat similar examples I can think of are DeBrincat and Matthews but they signed an extension from their ELC and it was well over his QO. So is there an example of a pending RFA not coming off their ELC that signed an extension prior to Free Agency for less than their QO?

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Genuinely curious, when was the last time this ever happened, the only somewhat similar examples I can think of are DeBrincat and Matthews but they signed an extension from their ELC and it was well over his QO. So is there an example of a pending RFA not coming off their ELC that signed an extension prior to Free Agency for less than their QO?

Theres not much normal about the KK situation though so…

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I was looking at that yesterday. Might be a little reset/retool by letting some UFA's walk? Hard to say cause covid flat cap is still in play and middle of the line-up players will take a hit yet again

Deangelo is an interesting case too. What the hell does he get?

LOOK MAN I DON’T KNO… BUT ALL YOUR QUESTIONS ARE STRESSING ME OUT!

 

[Habs Halifax]

LOOK MAN I DON’T KNO… BUT ALL YOUR QUESTIONS ARE STRESSING ME OUT!

I'm a Habs fan. You guys are in good shape. Trust me on this one

 

[SlyIslands]

Thats an interesting one and I think ultimately comes down to term. Necas is the better player now for sure but he has been inconsistent this year. The general consensus on the Canes board is that he will likely go the bridge route because he hasn’t shown enough to get big time money on a long term deal.

Now the Canes would be happy to sign him on a 6-8 year term but no way he gets $6AAV or more or at least he shouldn’t.

I suspect KK might get more money if he signs a longer deal in the 4 year range and Necas signed a two year but hard to say. If they sign contracts of the same length then Necas should be getting more 100%.

But why would Necas accept less then Kotkaniemi?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Genuinely curious, when was the last time this ever happened, the only somewhat similar examples I can think of are DeBrincat and Matthews but they signed an extension from their ELC and it was well over his QO. So is there an example of a pending RFA not coming off their ELC that signed an extension prior to Free Agency for less than their QO?

True, but when was the last time a RFA offer sheet for 1 year happened and was successful?

Again, I'm not saying that an extension will happen. Thing is, it's hard to use past comparables to this situation because we are in uncharted territory with this offer sheet. Offer sheets seldom happen, and if they do are rarely successful, and if they are are never for only 1 year.

Bit of a weird situation all around.

If I had to take a guess today, I would think the most likely outcome is either arbitration or he walks as the Canes won't want to pay that much. I won't be surprised if an extension is worked out beforehand though for slightly less, but I don't think it will be some huge discount like some do.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Theres not much normal about the KK situation though so…

Sure there is, he's on a soon to expire RFA contract. That's really standard

 

[tarheelhockey]

Who gets paid more as a RFA? KK or Necas?

Necas has had a disappointing year, with fewer goals and only a few more points than Kotkaniemi despite playing 4 more minutes a game with better linemates and fewer responsibilities. He’s also a year older, which in this case is a big part of the development window, and not as flexible to move around the lineup.

Of course he could go on a hot streak and that narrative largely disappears. But for now, Kotkaniemi is in a better position to cash in.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

True, but when was the last time a RFA offer sheet for 1 year happened and was successful?

Again, I'm not saying that an extension will happen. Thing is, it's hard to use past comparables to this situation because we are in uncharted territory with this offer sheet. Offer sheets seldom happen, and if they do are rarely successful, and if they are are never for only 1 year.

Bit of a weird situation all around.

If I had to take a guess today, I would think the most likely outcome is either arbitration or he walks as the Canes won't want to pay that much. I won't be surprised if an extension is worked out beforehand though for slightly less, but I don't think it will be some huge discount like some do.

You are overblowing it, the previous Offer Sheet has no effect on the rules of when that contract ends. The past comparables I asked for had nothing to do with a previous offer sheet and entirely to do if there are any examples at all of a non ELC pending RFA getting an extension below their QO, I'll even take an ELC getting less than their QO

 

[Svechhammer]

Who gets paid more as a RFA? KK or Necas?

aav I'd say Necas, but it'll be close
Overall contract I'd say KK

Necas goes for a shorter bridge because he's not going to get what he wants right now. He's having a down year that is going to suppress his value so you know he'll want to bridge, maybe at the $5m AAV for 3 years. Have to think there would be mutual interest with KK at something like $4.5m AAV for 5 years after the way he has played this year.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Necas has had a disappointing year, with fewer goals and only a few more points than Kotkaniemi despite playing 4 more minutes a game with better linemates and fewer responsibilities. He’s also a year older, which in this case is a big part of the development window, and not as flexible to move around the lineup.

Of course he could go on a hot streak and that narrative largely disappears. But for now, Kotkaniemi is in a better position to cash in.

Has your opinion changed between Necas and KK after seeing them both play with you this year? What is your personal projection moving forward in terms of who is better?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Has your opinion changed between Necas and KK after seeing them both play with you this year? What is your personal projection moving forward in terms of who is better?

It feels a little unfair to make a judgment on Necas during a slump. They are two very different players, completely different toolboxes. Necas is one of those guys that you give the puck and let him go. Kotkaniemi is more about playing the game in small spaces. Both of them are defensively solid, but there’s a big difference in responsibility between a W and a C.

Long term I think they’re pretty similar in value. Both of them seem like higher-end complimentary pieces, guys who aren’t quite good enough to build a team around but you’d love to add them to a team that already has its core in place. Unfortunately that’s a type of player that often gets overpaid, especially if they end up on a less complete team where they get force-fed big minutes and inflated stats.

 

[GoCanes2015]

KK seems to be gradually improving with each game/week while Necas is treading water. I don't know what that does for KK's next deal because he's not that far removed from his flawed output, while Necas has previously shown he's capable of more than KK. It's an interesting dilemma for CAR.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It feels a little unfair to make a judgment on Necas during a slump. They are two very different players, completely different toolboxes. Necas is one of those guys that you give the puck and let him go. Kotkaniemi is more about playing the game in small spaces. Both of them are defensively solid, but there’s a big difference in responsibility between a W and a C.

Long term I think they’re pretty similar in value. Both of them seem like higher-end complimentary pieces, guys who aren’t quite good enough to build a team around but you’d love to add them to a team that already has its core in place. Unfortunately that’s a type of player that often gets overpaid, especially if they end up on a less complete team where they get force-fed big minutes and inflated stats.

My gut tells me the values are similar too but I was curious to see what Canes fans felt about that after getting a chance to see them both play on your team this year

 

[Svechhammer]

Has your opinion changed between Necas and KK after seeing them both play with you this year? What is your personal projection moving forward in terms of who is better?

Necas is the higher talent, but he's pressing. A lot. He tries to play the hero often with the puck on his stick and most of the time it backfires. The talent is absolutely there, but he needs to learn when to turn it on and when to back off and wait for his moment. Aho had similar struggles early on, so I don't doubt it will eventually happen.

KK is still learning his role on the team. And on top of that, he's playing the same kind of sheltered minutes that Svechnikov and Necas played their first seasons. But he's also producing at an impressive clip given those reduced mins. Every time he's given a chance at an increased role from time to time, it pays off.

Necas will be the more elite playmaker in the long run, but I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if the gap isn't as much as everyone assumes. Fully expect the 2 of them to lock down one of the best 2nd lines in the league come 2024

 

[Habs Halifax]

KK seems to be gradually improving with each game/week while Necas is treading water. I don't know what that does for KK's next deal because he's not that far removed from his flawed output, while Necas has previously shown he's capable of more than KK. It's an interesting dilemma for CAR.

KK is developing in piece with the Canes. Not possible with his time with the Habs. MSL has changed things a bit for us and he's not so obsessed with little mistakes along the way. Julien/Ducharme were horrible development coaches.

KK was drafted as a long term prospect at center and what do the Habs do a few months later? They insert him into the NHL before he got a chance to dominate a development league. Then they yoyo'ed him around and nit picked his mistakes over and over again. Bergevin/Julien/Ducharme deserve heat for that and they only have themselves to blame.

Where do KK and Necas top out at? Guess work but they have room to grow yet

 

[jonlin]

Might be a little reset/retool by letting some UFA's walk?

I`m 99% sure Trocheck and Nino walks. Trocheck will want a raise and I suppose Canes have penciled KK for his spot. If KK doesnt agree to an affordable contract, then its a different story.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I`m 99% sure Trocheck and Nino walks. Trocheck will want a raise and I suppose Canes have penciled KK for his spot. If KK doesnt agree to an affordable contract, then its a different story.

Trocheck will want a raise but he's only getting it with non playoff teams who have cap space. Flat cap is still a problem for many teams and middle of the line-up players will suffer from that IMO. Trocheck will get a rude awakening as a UFA and he might settle for a fair deal with the Canes. We will see about that but maybe the Canes have different plans.

Personally, I hate greedy players. We see it so often where they go try to max out their deals and then suffer cause they can't measure up to it. It shouldn't be about money all the time when you are already set for life. I think a few players in the NHL have come to grips with that but then there are agents fueling their greed. At the end of the day, 50% of revenue goes to the players.

 

[Svechhammer]

My gut tells me the values are similar too but I was curious to see what Canes fans felt about that after getting a chance to see them both play on your team this year

KK this year vs Necas this year, its arguably close.
KK this year vs Necas last year and its Necas by a healthy gap.

So who really knows where this goes down the line. Necas is having a bit of a sophomore (junior) slump, but at the same time we aren't yet seeing KK being fully deployed within our system. Right now, they're comparable, even though they're playing different positions and roles.

At the end of the day, the biggest thing to come out of all this is that KK is nowhere near the failed asset that he was sold to be.

 

[Habs Halifax]

KK this year vs Necas this year, its arguably close.
KK this year vs Necas last year and its Necas by a healthy gap.

So who really knows where this goes down the line. Necas is having a bit of a sophomore (junior) slump, but at the same time we aren't yet seeing KK being fully deployed within our system. Right now, they're comparable, even though they're playing different positions and roles.

At the end of the day, the biggest thing to come out of all this is that KK is nowhere near the failed asset that he was sold to be.

It was a good offer sheet. But don't mix this up cause not all Habs fans were low on KK. Only the loud minorities. I will never let Bergevin/Julien off the hook for inserting him as a 18 year old. Horrible asset management.

Habs signing Hoffman, Armia, and Savard and letting Danault and KK go. I called this out over and over again and got jumped

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

You are overblowing it, the previous Offer Sheet has no effect on the rules of when that contract ends. The past comparables I asked for had nothing to do with a previous offer sheet and entirely to do if there are any examples at all of a non ELC pending RFA getting an extension below their QO, I'll even take an ELC getting less than their QO

You may be right. Like I said, my guess is that the likely outcome will be arbitration or they'll not think he's worth it and let him walk so I don't disagree with you too much. I do think the unique nature of this offer sheet is a bit of uncharted territory in terms of what a players next contract could be, but not worth arguing about any longer.