Value of: Kotkaniemi extension

[tarheelhockey]

And the Canes were expecting him to be able to play up the lineup. I get that he is a useful player but come-on, everyone including me was expecting him to play more then limited 4th line minutes.

The consensus at the time of the signing was that he would either be a 3rd line winger or a 4th line center. This was the subject of trash talk, so everyone should have a clear memory of it.

Clearly the front office didn't think he was going to walk in the door and take a top-9 center role (from Aho, Trocheck, Staal) and it's unlikely they expected him to replace a top-6 winger (Svechnikov, Teravainen, Niederreiter, Necas). So by default, they cannot have expected him to be more than a bottom-6 winger or a 4C.

Turns out, he has played very well in that limited role. With the 10th highest TOI among forwards, he is the 7th highest scorer while playing well defensively. We can only assume this was what they were hoping for when they signed him.

The questions now are: what do they intend to do with him next season (there are likely to be openings at both C and W), whether he's ready to make a leap up to that level of responsibility, and how much money it's going to take to keep him (Canes have an opportunity to save some cap space if he takes something like a $4M bridge deal).

 

[japhi]

If he is going to get an opportunity to play up the lineup next year, don’t see how he doesn’t take his QO, assuming it’s offered. A year playing in that top 9 will get him more money then a bridge coming out of a 35 point season.

 

[LakeLivin]

If he is going to get an opportunity to play up the lineup next year, don’t see how he doesn’t take his QO, assuming it’s offered. A year playing in that top 9 will get him more money then a bridge coming out of a 35 point season.

He won't get a QO and never was going to get a QO (realistically). Canes paid $3m-ish for his play this season and $3m-ish to pry him out of Montreal and for his potential future with the Canes. Potential in two senses, the potential for a 21 yo kid to make significant advances in his development, and the potential to re-sign him to a reasonable contract (which his QO is not).

 

[japhi]

He won't get a QO and never was going to get a QO (realistically). Canes paid $3m-ish for his play this season and $3m-ish to pry him out of Montreal and for his potential future with the Canes. Potential in two senses, the potential for a 21 yo kid to make significant advances in his development, and the potential to re-sign him to a reasonable contract (which his QO is not).

Not sure I agree that there is no chance he gets a QO. If he was good enough for this year at 6.1, why wouldn't he be good enough at the same number for next year, playing a bigger role? If you really feel his is a future 2/3C you have to do that deal.

If I'm the Canes, I'm not going to let him walk over 1 more year at 6.1.

 

[General Fanager]

Not sure I agree that there is no chance he gets a QO. If he was good enough for this year at 6.1, why wouldn't he be good enough at the same number for next year, playing a bigger role? If you really feel his is a future 2/3C you have to do that deal.

If I'm the Canes, I'm not going to let him walk over 1 more year at 6.1.

Yes you are. The Canes can get someone easily as good or better for less money. UFAs will fall all over themselves to play for such a good team.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Not sure I agree that there is no chance he gets a QO. If he was good enough for this year at 6.1, why wouldn't he be good enough at the same number for next year, playing a bigger role? If you really feel his is a future 2/3C you have to do that deal.

If I'm the Canes, I'm not going to let him walk over 1 more year at 6.1.

I think there's a chance he gets a QO, but there's probably an equal (or maybe better) chance that they end up at one of the following:
1) They come to agreement on an extension.
-or-
2) They file team elected arbitration, which occurs before the QO. In that case, they may still have to give him a QO to not lose him(?) but the arbitration will decide his compensation.
-or-
3) They decide that $6.1M isn't worth it given other priorities, so they let him walk.

All depends on what they think of his future role on the team and future potential is. I have no idea what their view is on him right now. That could change from now until the end of the season as well.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Yes you are. The Canes can get someone easily as good or better for less money. UFAs will fall all over themselves to play for such a good team.

Not necessarily. Last off-season, Carolina reportedly went after a number of UFAs and weren't successful (Saad being one of them). It was only after they struck out that they did the offer sheet. I'm sure there was some "payback" aspect of it as well, but if they had successfully gotten Saad or someone else, they wouldn't have had the space to do the offer-sheet.

Secondly, there's a big difference in paying Kotkaniemi $6.1M for 1 year, vs. signing a UFA to a high dollar, long term deal which would have much bigger long term cap implications. Any UFA is going to want $ and term.

 

[japhi]

Yes you are. The Canes can get someone easily as good or better for less money. UFAs will fall all over themselves to play for such a good team.

Right, and they likely could have gotten a better player for this year with the 6.1 plus the picks. But they got him, and Carolina fans say he has been a strong contributor, has mostly been worth the deal. So not sure why you walk on that if it is the only option. Unless you don't feel he will be a top 6 player at some point.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Right, and they likely could have gotten a better player for this year with the 6.1 plus the picks. But they got him, and Carolina fans say he has been a strong contributor, has mostly been worth the deal. So not sure why you walk on that if it is the only option. Unless you don't feel he will be a top 6 player at some point.

I don't think that's the exact message. He's been ok for the role he's had to play, but wouldn't say he's a "strong contributor" and $6M is too much for what he's brought to the table so far. The team could afford that $6M this year so it's mostly fine, particularly if he picks it up in the playoffs and/or provides depth upon injuries.

Next year, $6.1M may not be fine for what he brings (as I said earlier, it depends how they view him which we have no idea), but it's hard to say without knowing what other moves/signings are made. Are Trocheck and Nino gone via UFA? How much does Necas and DeAngelo sign for? etc...

 

[RabbleMasterBlaster]

I think this conversation changes post playoffs. Dude's a gamer. He'll likely be worth his 6M imo. Shame Habs ex gm was such a dolt.

 

[StreetHawk]

If he is going to get an opportunity to play up the lineup next year, don’t see how he doesn’t take his QO, assuming it’s offered. A year playing in that top 9 will get him more money then a bridge coming out of a 35 point season.

The QO is KK’s trump card. I don’t believe a nhl team can rescind a QO once they tender it. At best they can file to take him to Arbitration with the hope of knocking his QO down by 16% so around $900k lower to $5.2 mill.

so whatever KK wants to do he should figure out where he’s going to play in the lineup and whether he is happy in Carolina. Not sure if KK or his agent discussed his usage with Carolina before accepting the OS.

 

[tarheelhockey]

If he was good enough for this year at 6.1, why wouldn't he be good enough at the same number for next year, playing a bigger role?

Unless he has another offer sheet lined up for this summer, the comparison is moot.

 

[Theodore450]

Unless he has another offer sheet lined up for this summer, the comparison is moot.

If you don’t qualify him he’s a free agent so it’s not moot

 

[LakeLivin]

Not sure I agree that there is no chance he gets a QO. If he was good enough for this year at 6.1, why wouldn't he be good enough at the same number for next year, playing a bigger role? If you really feel his is a future 2/3C you have to do that deal.

If I'm the Canes, I'm not going to let him walk over 1 more year at 6.1.

A good chunk of that $6.1 was to pry him out of Montreal; he's out of Montreal. Canes management has shown repeatedly that they'll move on from a player before allowing themselves to be strong armed in contract negotiations (Ned, Dougie, Hanifin, etc.). I stand by my statement.

Hey, we're both speculating; it's nice that we'll know for sure fairly soon.

 

[tarheelhockey]

If you don’t qualify him he’s a free agent so it’s not moot

It’s moot because “was good enough for $6.1M” is entirely based on an offer sheet situation. Nobody, not a single one of the 32 teams in this league, thinks he is actually a $6.1M player this season.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Just because a team thinks it's ok to pay a player a certain amount 1 year doesn't mean they are ok with it the following year. Circumstances change, a team's view on a player changes, teams's needs change, other contracts come into play, etc..

That's why the comment that "if he was good enough this year at $6.1, then why isn't he good enough next year at that value" isn't completely valid. His contract isn't in a vacuum.

I'm not saying that they won't give him a qualifying offer, just saying that what made sense this season may not make sense next season as there are many variables in play.

 

[Theodore450]

Just because a team thinks it's ok to pay a player a certain amount 1 year doesn't mean they are ok with it the following year. Circumstances change, a team's view on a player changes, teams's needs change, other contracts come into play, etc..

That's why the comment that "if he was good enough this year at $6.1, then why isn't he good enough next year at that value" isn't completely valid. His contract isn't in a vacuum.

I'm not saying that they won't give him a qualifying offer, just saying that what made sense this season may not make sense next season as there are many variables in play.

I agree with what’s being said, I’m just looking forward and wondering if KK thinks he would do better in a top 6 role which is deserving of a bare minimum 4.5 contract. Will a team see him worth 5 and does kk believe a team will sign him at 5? If both line up I can easily see him ask for QO and walk

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Im kinda confused by a lot of the poll options here. His QO is ~6.1M and even if the team files for Arbitration the minimum he can be offered is ~5.185M.

So unless he just straight up isn't qualified and becomes a UFA how can he get less than 5M?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Im kinda confused by a lot of the poll options here. His QO is ~6.1M and even if the team files for Arbitration the minimum he can be offered is ~5.185M.

So unless he just straight up isn't qualified and becomes a UFA how can he get less than 5M?

Simple. Currently, he's likely NOT getting $5M as a UFA from any team, so he could agree to less in a long term extension to stay in Carolina. That's still a viable option.

Yes, as you said, Kotkaniemi's agent can play hardball a 1 year QO to try and force the team's hand, but there is also risk in that. Canes mgmt have shown they aren't afraid to lose a non-core player if the cost is too high and Kotkaniemi isn't anywhere near a core piece. I may be wrong, but I suspect Kotkaniemi's agent knows that he's very unlikely to get a UFA deal for $5M+ from another team, so if Kotkaniemi wants to stay in Carolina (no idea if he does), then they could agree to a deal for less.

If Kotkaniemi's agent feels he can get a UFA deal for more than $5M on the open market I agree with your statement, but I'll be a bit surprised if he feels that way in this cap environment at this moment. That could change between now and the end of the playoffs though. If Kotkaniemi wants to go to another team, then I also agree with your statement.

A lot of variables still TBD.

I doubt any extension (if it happens) will be as low as some fans are predicting though. He's better off taking a 1 year deal and betting on himself, whether that's with Carolina or someone else.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Simple. Currently, he's likely NOT getting $5M as a UFA from any team, so he could agree to less in a long term extension to stay in Carolina. That's still a viable option.

Yes, as you said, Kotkaniemi's agent can play hardball a 1 year QO to try and force the team's hand, but there is also risk in that. Canes mgmt have shown they aren't afraid to lose a non-core player if the cost is too high and Kotkaniemi isn't anywhere near a core piece. I may be wrong, but I suspect Kotkaniemi's agent knows that he's very unlikely to get a UFA deal for $5M+ from another team, so if Kotkaniemi wants to stay in Carolina (no idea if he does), then they could agree to a deal for less.

If Kotkaniemi's agent feels he can get a UFA deal for more than $5M on the open market I agree with your statement, but I'll be a bit surprised if he feels that way in this cap environment at this moment. That could change between now and the end of the playoffs though. If Kotkaniemi wants to go to another team, then I also agree with your statement.

A lot of variables still TBD.

I doubt any extension (if it happens) will be as low as some fans are predicting though. He's better off taking a 1 year deal and betting on himself, whether that's with Carolina or someone else.

I don't think you are understanding here. Teams have 3 initial options:
1. Extend a Qualifying Offer to retain player rights
2. File for team arbitration before free agency in lieu of a Qualifying Offer, but still retain player rights (this allows you to offer 85% of their previous years pay but they are still eligible to receive offer sheets)
3. Do not extend a Qualifying Offer, thus loose the players rights and they become a UFA

I don't understand why you are trying to reason with the agents POV when this is a CBA thing

 

[jonlin]

If I'm the Canes, I'm not going to let him walk over 1 more year at 6.1.

I would. I would offer him like 2-3yrs at 4-4,5M. He will be getting 2C most likely and a chance to prove himself when Trocheck is out. If hewants more - let him go. Doubt he gets a better offer or place to succeed than Canes.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don't think you are understanding here. Teams have 3 initial options:
1. Extend a Qualifying Offer to retain player rights
2. File for team arbitration before free agency in lieu of a Qualifying Offer, but still retain player rights (this allows you to offer 85% of their previous years pay but they are still eligible to receive offer sheets)
3. Do not extend a Qualifying Offer, thus loose the players rights and they become a UFA

I don't understand why you are trying to reason with the agents POV when this is a CBA thing

I think you are misunderstanding.

There's option 4, which became available after Jan 1st 2022: The team is able to now negotiate and extension with Kotkaniemi and avoid the whole QO/Arbitration route. Just like all teams are able to negotiate extensions with RFAs, and many times do.

I'm not going to predict what option the team and Kotkaniemi will go down, but you are ignoring one option that exists.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I agree with what’s being said, I’m just looking forward and wondering if KK thinks he would do better in a top 6 role which is deserving of a bare minimum 4.5 contract. Will a team see him worth 5 and does kk believe a team will sign him at 5? If both line up I can easily see him ask for QO and walk

Yep. If his agent feels he can get 5+ with some term on the open market, then by all means he should go the QO route if he's not happy with the Canes extension offers. I would if I was in his shoes. I'm just not as confident that in this cap environment, he'd get that, but clearly his agent would know a lot more than me on that front so I could be way off.

 

[LakeLivin]

I don't think you are understanding here. Teams have 3 initial options:
1. Extend a Qualifying Offer to retain player rights
2. File for team arbitration before free agency in lieu of a Qualifying Offer, but still retain player rights (this allows you to offer 85% of their previous years pay but they are still eligible to receive offer sheets)
3. Do not extend a Qualifying Offer, thus loose the players rights and they become a UFA

I don't understand why you are trying to reason with the agents POV when this is a CBA thing

You're missing an option, the one that happens before any of the others: reach an agreement with the player that's less than the QO. No guarantee that's going to happen, but I have no doubt that's what the Canes hope will happen.

edit: while I was typing BBA beat me to it.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Who gets paid more as a RFA? KK or Necas?