Kopitar's next contract?

[damacles1156]

So again, those of you wildly against Kopitar getting a contract similar to Toews. What is the Kings play if he does ask for an identical contract to Toews when Kopi and the Kings begin to negotiate next July. Would you then look to trade Kopitar or just let him play out his contract and hit UFA and hope no one else offers that much (goodluck with that).

I'm sorry but both ideas seem incredibly stupid to me.

The Kings can pay Kopitar Toews money. It doesn't really hurt the Kings cause they don't have to pay A winger 10.5 as well.

Doughty is not due for a raise till later.

I don't think Kopitar will get 10.5 AAV, but the Kings can pay that.

Toews deserved his 10.5 AAV, I just think the Hawks were dumb to pay Kane that as well.

The Hawks are in a bad spot, cause Kane/Toews contracts are due at the same time.

I don't think you pay any Winger 10.5 Million AAV. I wouldn't pay OVI that.

 

[HYORI 1963]

I'm thinking there will be at least another half dozen threads on this subject matter, before Kopi eventually signs with the Kings.

 

[KopitarFAN]

I'm thinking there will be at least another half dozen threads on this subject matter, before Kopi eventually signs with the Kings.

When he gets off to a hot start people will be saying he deserves a $12M AAV, then if he goes through his annual january slump, people will want him gone. Oh joy.

 

[Reclamation Project]

It wouldn't shock me if Gaborik and Brown played so well with him that he doesn't have one.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

I'm very excited about next season in general. Excited to see bounce back years from Richards, Brown, and Voynov. Excited to see Mcnabb and possibly Andreoff. Excited to Gaborik with a full training camp.

I really want one King to break 40 goals out of this group, whether that's Carter, Gaborik, or even Kopitar.

 

[HYORI 1963]

When he gets off to a hot start people will be saying he deserves a $12M AAV, then if he goes through his annual january slump, people will want him gone. Oh joy.

Pretty much. I still think some are on a high from the SC, suggesting that Kopi should get something in the 12M range.

Not happening under Lombardi.

 

[KopitarFAN]

Pretty much. I still think some are on a high from the SC, suggesting that Kopi should get something in the 12M range.

Not happening under Lombardi.

I'm saying that's what will happen during the season (knowing this bi-polar bunch), not that it has happened.

 

[kingsfan]

I think most of you who claim Kopitar will take a hometown discount are likely correct. I don't think you are correct in how much of a discount he'll take though.

Comparing to Toews is a fair comparision, same age, same status on their team, roughly same length of time on their team, same number of cups, same point per game totals, both are award nominees, full career on one team, when you break them down to sheer numbers and value to their teams, Toews and Kopitar are very comparible.

As such, saying Kopitar's value = Toews isn't far off. Some of you have said he's possibly more valuable than Toews even, so possibly his value is > Toews.

So if you ballpark Kopitar's value at the $10.5 million Toews received, just how much of a discount do you expect him to take? Anything more than a 10 to 15 per cent discount is being very generous, and that would still have him over $9 million. A 20 per cent discount would be nearly $8.5 million.

I don't see him signing for less that $9.3 million. Let's not forget that even when he signed his existing deal at a cap hit of $6.8 million he wasn't exactly taking much less than he could have earned. Someone should go bump his contract thread from when he signed his last deal, odds are it wasn't 20 per cent less than what he could have earned. Kopitar wants to be a King, but he's not going to sacrifice $2-$3 million PER YEAR like some of you think. Over an eight year deal that's upwards of $24 million he'd leaving on the table, do you guys honestly think he walks away from that much? Even at $9.3 million that I have suggested, that's nearly $10 million less than Toews is earning over eight years. For someone that several people on this board thinks is the better player of the two, that's a hefty favour you are expecting.

 

[Buddy The Elf]

The Kings can pay Kopitar Toews money. It doesn't really hurt the Kings cause they don't have to pay A winger 10.5 as well.

Doughty is not due for a raise till later.

I don't think Kopitar will get 10.5 AAV, but the Kings can pay that.

Toews deserved his 10.5 AAV, I just think the Hawks were dumb to pay Kane that as well.

The Hawks are in a bad spot, cause Kane/Toews contracts are due at the same time.

I don't think you pay any Winger 10.5 Million AAV. I wouldn't pay OVI that.

This is it in a nut shell. The Kings can pay Kopitar whatever he wants. The Kings probably won't need to pay him as much as Toews. The Kings also don't have a Kane to worry about. I don't disagree with Chicago signing both players but I do think Kane is a bit overpaid and paying two guys that much money in another year could become crippling. Time will tell.

It doesn't really matter that Toews is only 8 months younger. What matters is Toews contract starts when he is 27 years old and takes him until he is 35. Kopitar will be 29 years old and if he signs for 8 years, he'll be 37 years old when his contract ends. That is a pretty important distinction and should be reflected in the cap hit.

Comparing Kings and Hawks situations is apples and oranges. The Kings don't have two players to pay of that caliber and both aren't coming up to renew at the same time. The Kings player is going to be older than both the Hawks players.

 

[Buddy The Elf]

Here is the Kopitar thread from 2008 (because I was curious):

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=560549

Seems like most people feel he was slightly overpaid but giving up the UFA years compensated.


And this vintage thread is from the summer before he was signed:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=532062

Man, people were (starting to get) really angry.. That thread is a classic now.

 

[kingsfan]

Here is the Kopitar thread from 2008 (because I was curious):

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=560549

Seems like most people feel he was slightly overpaid but giving up the UFA years compensated.

Thanks for the bump. Of all the predictions in that thread before he signed, not one was as high as what Kopitar got. Now granted, most didn't think he'd sign into his UFA years so that likely would have swayed several people's suggestions, but the point is Kopitar didn't take much, if any, discount to resign with LA. Not sure why some think he'll be taking a rather significant one now.

 

[likid]

Thanks for the bump. Of all the predictions in that thread before he signed, not one was as high as what Kopitar got. Now granted, most didn't think he'd sign into his UFA years so that likely would have swayed several people's suggestions, but the point is Kopitar didn't take much, if any, discount to resign with LA. Not sure why some think he'll be taking a rather significant one now.

I remember from that time that Kopitar said that they didn't negotiate much at all, because Lombardi offered such a good deal to them.

I also remember that Lombardi said that he offered such good contract to Kopitar because he had faith in him and because with that season they started together with Murray his transformation into two-way player and didn't want that contract year would disturb them in this process. And that he is overpaid in first few years, but will be underpaid in his last few years of this contract...

 

[Buddy The Elf]

Thanks for the bump. Of all the predictions in that thread before he signed, not one was as high as what Kopitar got. Now granted, most didn't think he'd sign into his UFA years so that likely would have swayed several people's suggestions, but the point is Kopitar didn't take much, if any, discount to resign with LA. Not sure why some think he'll be taking a rather significant one now.

I guess that is where some confusion begins. Is 29 year old Kopitar signing a deal for less than $10.5M AAV a discount? There are a few variables to consider. The contract will not go into effect for two more years so the cap may increase by then. The cap could also go down. Kopitar is possibly entering his best years playing with the best players he has played with and could post career numbers. Those are factors that would drive up his pay. The term of the contract will matter. A term of 8 years is going to lower the AAV. 8 years of a 29 year old should have a lower AAV than 8 years of a 27 year old comparable player. But again, cap increases and performance could skew this.

At the end of the day, I think it is kind of pointless to argue what he should or will get paid. Kopitar will be a King for life. I don't see any scenario where the Kings can't or don't retain him. He is the probably the most important player in Kings history. He's certainly my favorite.

 

[KopitarFAN]

Here is an interesting fact that I imagine may be brought up by one side or the other, from age 29-34, the last 6 years of Toews new deal, and the first 6 of Kopi's potential deal, Toews gets $56.4M in that time. Maybe you sweeten the pot for Kopi a little, and make it $60M over those 6 years, then throw a couple of years on the end to make it $70-72M over 8.

For reference, here is the structure of the Toews deal: http://capgeek.com/player/246

 

[kingsfan]

I remember from that time that Kopitar said that they didn't negotiate much at all, because Lombardi offered such a good deal to them.

I also remember that Lombardi said that he offered such good contract to Kopitar because he had faith in him and because with that season they started together with Murray his transformation into two-way player and didn't want that contract year would disturb them in this process. And that he is overpaid in first few years, but will be underpaid in his last few years of this contract...

Either way, my point was that Kopitar is -IMO- not likely to take a discount to the level that some are thinking, whether it's because Kopi demands to be paid fairly or DL simply hands him a fair offer -or better- right away.

 

[KINGS17]

Here is the Kopitar thread from 2008 (because I was curious):

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=560549

Seems like most people feel he was slightly overpaid but giving up the UFA years compensated.


And this vintage thread is from the summer before he was signed:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=532062

Man, people were (starting to get) really angry.. That thread is a classic now.

In hindsight, I think the folks that had an opportunity to speak with Dean Lombardi (and back then Dean really would talk an individual fan's leg off) and really listened to what he was saying, were on board with his plan.

The folks that didn't really listen to what he was saying were wrong, especially regarding AEG. When the time was right, they were there with the cash.

I miss Goallum, Zak where did you go?

 

[HYORI 1963]

So, everyone knows where I stand on this issue??? I don't need to repeat myself 40 more times, or create a poll do I? I will, if you guys insist.

 

[Chain]

So, everyone knows where I stand on this issue??? I don't need to repeat myself 40 more times, or create a poll do I? I will, if you guys insist.

Do it! I love polls. They're good for helping to remind me later on down the road how clueless I was.

I say Kopitar resigns for between $9.5 to 10 million AAV and I'll bet a double double with any fan here who says otherwise.

 

[HYORI 1963]

Do it! I love polls. They're good for helping to remind me later on down the road how clueless I was.

I say Kopitar resigns for between $9.5 to 10 million AAV and I'll bet a double double with any fan here who says otherwise.

That would be a cinch double double win for me, but the mods wouldn't want another thread on the same subject matter. We've already had this discussion.

 

[kingsfan]

 

[Captain Ron]

Here is the Kopitar thread from 2008 (because I was curious):

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=560549

Seems like most people feel he was slightly overpaid but giving up the UFA years compensated.


And this vintage thread is from the summer before he was signed:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=532062

Man, people were (starting to get) really angry.. That thread is a classic now.

So much fun reading through those old threads. I miss all of the anger I use to have on these boards.....haha not really.

 

[Buddy The Elf]

So much fun reading through those old threads. I miss all of the anger I use to have on these boards.....haha not really.

I was gonna say, you have some gems in there. But it really is fun to read that stuff now. That was the summer where I had really started to question DL a bit. I was still on board but finishing 29th followed by the summer of bummer, it was hard to be optimistic anymore. That season the Kings went on to finish 26th in league with 79 points. They drafted Braydenn Schenn 5th overall. That was grim as well but I think the Kings at that point had really established the defensive identity they carry to this day. The next year they make the playoffs with 101 points. It wouldn't be until the following summer when the Richards trade happened that the (Stanley Cup) team(s) really started to take shape.

But I'm having a lot of fun reading some of these old threads. I know I was on the DL bandwagon for quite some time but even I started to get a bit jaded. I'm just too upbeat a person to dwell on the negative even if it is staring you in the face. In hindsight, it really does look like DL knew what he was doing all along. Granted the Kings have caught some breaks along the way but he stayed the course and I think we're all happy with the results.

 

[Captain Ron]

I was gonna say, you have some gems in there. But it really is fun to read that stuff now. That was the summer where I had really started to question DL a bit. I was still on board but finishing 29th followed by the summer of bummer, it was hard to be optimistic anymore. That season the Kings went on to finish 26th in league with 79 points. They drafted Braydenn Schenn 5th overall. That was grim as well but I think the Kings at that point had really established the defensive identity they carry to this day. The next year they make the playoffs with 101 points. It wouldn't be until the following summer when the Richards trade happened that the (Stanley Cup) team(s) really started to take shape.

But I'm having a lot of fun reading some of these old threads. I know I was on the DL bandwagon for quite some time but even I started to get a bit jaded. I'm just too upbeat a person to dwell on the negative even if it is staring you in the face. In hindsight, it really does look like DL knew what he was doing all along. Granted the Kings have caught some breaks along the way but he stayed the course and I think we're all happy with the results.

Looking back I was right about how the immediate future of the team would be. But, things seemed to turn around a couple of seasons later. Dean's plan ultimately was the right one. Even though I still do not agree on all of the moves he made along the way, he built this team into a champion and it should be a contender for the foreseeable future.

 

[Captain Mittens*]

Looking back I was right about how the immediate future of the team would be. But, things seemed to turn around a couple of seasons later. Dean's plan ultimately was the right one. Even though I still do not agree on all of the moves he made along the way, he built this team into a champion and it should be a contender for the foreseeable future.

Most people don't understand the moves he did along the way. I did because I am a mother****ing prophet

2006

Thornton, McCauley, and Willsie were about bringing in players with better work ethics. Team guys who never said die. Remember the last few seasons prior to 2006, the Kings were winning the Pacific in October and November and then slowly went down the drain...annually.

Ivanans- was about our players not getting killed because under DT and AM, the powerplay was our enforcer once Grimson left town

Demitra was about getting rid of the exact type of player they didn't want on the team.
Cloutier was 100% Crawford's fault


2007
Nagy- place filler 1 year deal that hopefully could provide a return at the deadline
Calder-place filler thatcould hopefully provide a return at the deadline this season or the next
Preissing-place filler
Handzus- (see Thornton and McCauley (bringing in players with better work ethics. A team guys who never said die.


2008 was about handing the kids the Reigns (see what I did there)
Out: Cammy-Visnovsky
In- Stoll, Greene, O'Donnell, Richardson, JDub at the deadline

 

[Calirose]

He'll get what he gets, and then the Kings will have to adapt to it, whatever the number is.

Sick post. Thanks for your amazing insight.