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Kopitar's next contract?

Brad Doty said:
I must be the outlier here but I think the Toews/Kane contracts are bonkers and they're actually bad-money deals. Not that I don't think they should get paid, and the market has certainly changed, but they're destroying Chicago's cap for the next few years. I think the Getzlaf/Perry contracts are the more normal bar for top players and that most players in that neighborhood will sign for from 8-9.5 million tops so as not to cripple their team.

I'm thinking Kopitar does 8.5 for 8. I know a lot can change in two years, though.
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If you're the outlier, I'm right there with you. Toews and Kane each just took 15% of Chicago's cap space. That's 30% between 2 players who are each on the ice no more than 34% of the game and combined directly accounted for 22% of Chicago's goals last season. Unless the cap goes up at a good clip, that's going to make it a challenge to surround them with depth and make it harder to contend for the cup after next year. After all, this isn't basketball where 1 player can be on the court for 80% of every game and sink 25% of your buckets. Hockey is a stronger team sport.

For comparison's sake, when Kopitar signed his current contract, it was no more than 12% of total cap space. I don't think he'll resign as low as you're thinking, though that would be awesome. I do think he'll resign him for 9.5-10 million. Anything less would be awesome though.
 
Brad Doty said:
I must be the outlier here but I think the Toews/Kane contracts are bonkers and they're actually bad-money deals. Not that I don't think they should get paid, and the market has certainly changed, but they're destroying Chicago's cap for the next few years. I think the Getzlaf/Perry contracts are the more normal bar for top players and that most players in that neighborhood will sign for from 8-9.5 million tops so as not to cripple their team.

I'm thinking Kopitar does 8.5 for 8. I know a lot can change in two years, though.
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Lets see what percentage they end up at. Remember these don't go into effect till next year. Getzlaf and Perry were 26.24% in the first year of there contracts. I'm thinking Toews and Kane will come in around the 28% when all is said and done. Even though these two contracts were only signed 15-16 months apart they go into effect 2 years apart from each other. Because two of them were signed almost as early as you could sign them.

Where it is a nice thought thinking Kopi could sign for that amount it is really more a dream. Especially if he puts up the numbers that you and I tend to think he will.
 
I posted some of this in the Kane/Toews thread.

Despite my initial hunch that Kopitar's next contract will easily be 9-10 million AAV, I really don't believe it will get that high. Lombardi, as usual, has structured his contracts deftly.

Kopitar's next contract will begin in the 16/17 season and he will be 29 years old on opening night. Assuming he will get the full term (eight years), the final season of this contract will be in the 23/24 season, in which he'll be 36 years old.

If you look at pretty much every multi year deal Lombardi has ever negotiated (going all the way back to the Kovalchuk offer), he has always bell curved his deals to drop significantly in years a player is in his mid to late 30s. The recent Gaborik deal is a perfect example of this. Considering Kopitar's next contract will take him to 36 years of age, I feel this will significantly impact the overall AAV. By contrast, Toews' deal takes him to 34 years old, and Kane to 33. By having less "you'll be old and not as good" years to tack on to either players' contract, this gave the Blackhawks very little room to lower their AAVs. Setting the precedent of identical deals expiring in identical years was a disastrous mistake Chicago management made, as well, seeing how it gave a huge amount of leverage away to begin with. Offering either player a higher dollar deal would risk alienating the other player. It also created the looming threat of your top two forwards walking if they didn't get what they wanted. Imagine the Kings having to negotiate Kopitar AND Carter's deals next season? Chicago put themselves in a disadvantageous position upon signing Toews and Kane's bridge deals years ago, and this is their comeuppance.

Anyway, I can easily see Lombardi offering Kopitar the following deal:

16/17: 11 million (29)
17/18: 11 million (30)
18/19: 11 million (31)
19/20: 9 million (32)
20/21: 8 million (33)
21/22: 7 million (34)
22/23: 6 million (35)
23/24: 6 million (36)
Total dollar value: 69 million
AAV: 8.625

This is, realistically, the way Lombardi would likely feel a contract should be structured for a top line center, in which prime and declining years (traditionally) are accounted for. Kopitar would be making near league max, a higher cash figure than most in the league, for his remaining prime years (age 29-31), followed by a steady decline throughout the rest of his mid 30s.

Brisson will likely try to negotiate as close to Toews' deal as he can, but it will be very difficult to argue that a contract which begins at a prime year and ends at a 35+ year should carry a 10 million+ AAV throughout. I just don't see Lombardi bending much on that, and I think he will have a much more compelling argument in negotiating back diving years due to Kopitar's age.

Anyway, those are my thoughts.

Edit: Any deal over 60 million total will put Kopitar's career earnings in the 100 million dollar bracket. Hard to nickel and dime at that point.
 
Richie10 said:
I posted some of this in the Kane/Toews thread.

Despite my initial hunch that Kopitar's next contract will easily be 9-10 million AAV, I really don't believe it will get that high. Lombardi, as usual, has structured his contracts deftly.

Kopitar's next contract will begin in the 16/17 season and he will be 29 years old on opening night. Assuming he will get the full term (eight years), the final season of this contract will be in the 23/24 season, in which he'll be 36 years old.

If you look at pretty much every multi year deal Lombardi has ever negotiated (going all the way back to the Kovalchuk offer), he has always bell curved his deals to drop significantly in years a player is in his mid to late 30s. The recent Gaborik deal is a perfect example of this. Considering Kopitar's next contract will take him to 36 years of age, I feel this will significantly impact the overall AAV. By contrast, Toews' deal takes him to 34 years old, and Kane to 33. By having less "you'll be old and not as good" years to tack on to either players' contract, this gave the Blackhawks very little room to lower their AAVs. Setting the precedent of identical deals expiring in identical years was a disastrous mistake Chicago management made, as well, seeing how it gave a huge amount of leverage away to begin with. Offering either player a higher dollar deal would risk alienating the other player. It also created the looming threat of your top two forwards walking if they didn't get what they wanted. Imagine the Kings having to negotiate Kopitar AND Carter's deals next season? Chicago put themselves in a disadvantageous position upon signing Toews and Kane's bridge deals years ago, and this is their comeuppance.

Anyway, I can easily see Lombardi offering Kopitar the following deal:

16/17: 11 million (29)
17/18: 11 million (30)
18/19: 11 million (31)
19/20: 9 million (32)
20/21: 8 million (33)
21/22: 7 million (34)
22/23: 6 million (35)
23/24: 6 million (36)
Total dollar value: 69 million
AAV: 8.625

This is, realistically, the way Lombardi would likely feel a contract should be structured for a top line center, in which prime and declining years (traditionally) are accounted for. Kopitar would be making near league max, a higher cash figure than most in the league, for his remaining prime years (age 29-31), followed by a steady decline throughout the rest of his mid 30s.

Brisson will likely try to negotiate as close to Toews' deal as he can, but it will be very difficult to argue that a contract which begins at a prime year and ends at a 35+ year should carry a 10 million+ AAV throughout. I just don't see Lombardi bending much on that, and I think he will have a much more compelling argument in negotiating back diving years due to Kopitar's age.

Anyway, those are my thoughts.

Edit: Any deal over 60 million total will put Kopitar's career earnings in the 100 million dollar bracket. Hard to nickel and dime at that point.
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This is a wonderful post, and far and away the best argument I've seen that Kopitar will be under 10 million in AAV. I don't know if he'll be as low as you say, but you definitely make a compelling argument that it won't be as high as I have been thinking.
 
Richie10 said:
I posted some of this in the Kane/Toews thread.

Despite my initial hunch that Kopitar's next contract will easily be 9-10 million AAV, I really don't believe it will get that high. Lombardi, as usual, has structured his contracts deftly.

Kopitar's next contract will begin in the 16/17 season and he will be 29 years old on opening night. Assuming he will get the full term (eight years), the final season of this contract will be in the 23/24 season, in which he'll be 36 years old.

If you look at pretty much every multi year deal Lombardi has ever negotiated (going all the way back to the Kovalchuk offer), he has always bell curved his deals to drop significantly in years a player is in his mid to late 30s. The recent Gaborik deal is a perfect example of this. Considering Kopitar's next contract will take him to 36 years of age, I feel this will significantly impact the overall AAV. By contrast, Toews' deal takes him to 34 years old, and Kane to 33. By having less "you'll be old and not as good" years to tack on to either players' contract, this gave the Blackhawks very little room to lower their AAVs. Setting the precedent of identical deals expiring in identical years was a disastrous mistake Chicago management made, as well, seeing how it gave a huge amount of leverage away to begin with. Offering either player a higher dollar deal would risk alienating the other player. It also created the looming threat of your top two forwards walking if they didn't get what they wanted. Imagine the Kings having to negotiate Kopitar AND Carter's deals next season? Chicago put themselves in a disadvantageous position upon signing Toews and Kane's bridge deals years ago, and this is their comeuppance.

Anyway, I can easily see Lombardi offering Kopitar the following deal:

16/17: 11 million (29)
17/18: 11 million (30)
18/19: 11 million (31)
19/20: 9 million (32)
20/21: 8 million (33)
21/22: 7 million (34)
22/23: 6 million (35)
23/24: 6 million (36)
Total dollar value: 69 million
AAV: 8.625

This is, realistically, the way Lombardi would likely feel a contract should be structured for a top line center, in which prime and declining years (traditionally) are accounted for. Kopitar would be making near league max, a higher cash figure than most in the league, for his remaining prime years (age 29-31), followed by a steady decline throughout the rest of his mid 30s.

Brisson will likely try to negotiate as close to Toews' deal as he can, but it will be very difficult to argue that a contract which begins at a prime year and ends at a 35+ year should carry a 10 million+ AAV throughout. I just don't see Lombardi bending much on that, and I think he will have a much more compelling argument in negotiating back diving years due to Kopitar's age.

Anyway, those are my thoughts.

Edit: Any deal over 60 million total will put Kopitar's career earnings in the 100 million dollar bracket. Hard to nickel and dime at that point.
Click to expand...

You have me sold. Now please convince kopitar's agent.
 
Richie10 said:
I posted some of this in the Kane/Toews thread.

Despite my initial hunch that Kopitar's next contract will easily be 9-10 million AAV, I really don't believe it will get that high. Lombardi, as usual, has structured his contracts deftly.

Kopitar's next contract will begin in the 16/17 season and he will be 29 years old on opening night. Assuming he will get the full term (eight years), the final season of this contract will be in the 23/24 season, in which he'll be 36 years old.

If you look at pretty much every multi year deal Lombardi has ever negotiated (going all the way back to the Kovalchuk offer), he has always bell curved his deals to drop significantly in years a player is in his mid to late 30s. The recent Gaborik deal is a perfect example of this. Considering Kopitar's next contract will take him to 36 years of age, I feel this will significantly impact the overall AAV. By contrast, Toews' deal takes him to 34 years old, and Kane to 33. By having less "you'll be old and not as good" years to tack on to either players' contract, this gave the Blackhawks very little room to lower their AAVs. Setting the precedent of identical deals expiring in identical years was a disastrous mistake Chicago management made, as well, seeing how it gave a huge amount of leverage away to begin with. Offering either player a higher dollar deal would risk alienating the other player. It also created the looming threat of your top two forwards walking if they didn't get what they wanted. Imagine the Kings having to negotiate Kopitar AND Carter's deals next season? Chicago put themselves in a disadvantageous position upon signing Toews and Kane's bridge deals years ago, and this is their comeuppance.

Anyway, I can easily see Lombardi offering Kopitar the following deal:

16/17: 11 million (29)
17/18: 11 million (30)
18/19: 11 million (31)
19/20: 9 million (32)
20/21: 8 million (33)
21/22: 7 million (34)
22/23: 6 million (35)
23/24: 6 million (36)
Total dollar value: 69 million
AAV: 8.625

This is, realistically, the way Lombardi would likely feel a contract should be structured for a top line center, in which prime and declining years (traditionally) are accounted for. Kopitar would be making near league max, a higher cash figure than most in the league, for his remaining prime years (age 29-31), followed by a steady decline throughout the rest of his mid 30s.

Brisson will likely try to negotiate as close to Toews' deal as he can, but it will be very difficult to argue that a contract which begins at a prime year and ends at a 35+ year should carry a 10 million+ AAV throughout. I just don't see Lombardi bending much on that, and I think he will have a much more compelling argument in negotiating back diving years due to Kopitar's age.

Anyway, those are my thoughts.

Edit: Any deal over 60 million total will put Kopitar's career earnings in the 100 million dollar bracket. Hard to nickel and dime at that point.
Click to expand...

Great post. Hopefully DL sees it along those lines and Kopi finds it agreeable. If they can sign him for anything under 9 million AAV I'll be ecstatic.
 
Davit17 said:
if toews can get 10 then Kopi deserves 11. Toews is very overatted imo
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That may be so, and yes, head to head Kopitar is probably worth a bit more per year. However, the age difference is definitely a factor.

No GM in the league would pay near league max (in cap) for a 35 or 36 year old. That's just not how things work.

Kopi may get 11ish for the prime years of his contract, but it will drop significantly as the years go on. I'm certain of this.
 
Richie10 said:
I posted some of this in the Kane/Toews thread.

Despite my initial hunch that Kopitar's next contract will easily be 9-10 million AAV, I really don't believe it will get that high. Lombardi, as usual, has structured his contracts deftly.

Kopitar's next contract will begin in the 16/17 season and he will be 29 years old on opening night. Assuming he will get the full term (eight years), the final season of this contract will be in the 23/24 season, in which he'll be 36 years old.

If you look at pretty much every multi year deal Lombardi has ever negotiated (going all the way back to the Kovalchuk offer), he has always bell curved his deals to drop significantly in years a player is in his mid to late 30s. The recent Gaborik deal is a perfect example of this. Considering Kopitar's next contract will take him to 36 years of age, I feel this will significantly impact the overall AAV. By contrast, Toews' deal takes him to 34 years old, and Kane to 33. By having less "you'll be old and not as good" years to tack on to either players' contract, this gave the Blackhawks very little room to lower their AAVs. Setting the precedent of identical deals expiring in identical years was a disastrous mistake Chicago management made, as well, seeing how it gave a huge amount of leverage away to begin with. Offering either player a higher dollar deal would risk alienating the other player. It also created the looming threat of your top two forwards walking if they didn't get what they wanted. Imagine the Kings having to negotiate Kopitar AND Carter's deals next season? Chicago put themselves in a disadvantageous position upon signing Toews and Kane's bridge deals years ago, and this is their comeuppance.

Anyway, I can easily see Lombardi offering Kopitar the following deal:

16/17: 11 million (29)
17/18: 11 million (30)
18/19: 11 million (31)
19/20: 9 million (32)
20/21: 8 million (33)
21/22: 7 million (34)
22/23: 6 million (35)
23/24: 6 million (36)
Total dollar value: 69 million
AAV: 8.625

This is, realistically, the way Lombardi would likely feel a contract should be structured for a top line center, in which prime and declining years (traditionally) are accounted for. Kopitar would be making near league max, a higher cash figure than most in the league, for his remaining prime years (age 29-31), followed by a steady decline throughout the rest of his mid 30s.

Brisson will likely try to negotiate as close to Toews' deal as he can, but it will be very difficult to argue that a contract which begins at a prime year and ends at a 35+ year should carry a 10 million+ AAV throughout. I just don't see Lombardi bending much on that, and I think he will have a much more compelling argument in negotiating back diving years due to Kopitar's age.

Anyway, those are my thoughts.

Edit: Any deal over 60 million total will put Kopitar's career earnings in the 100 million dollar bracket. Hard to nickel and dime at that point.
Click to expand...

I think Kopi's agent counters

10.5 29
10.5 30
10.5 31
10.5 32
10.5 33
9 34
7 35
7 36

9.4375 AAV

Agent says they can easily get a 5 year deal at the Toews rate from ages 29-33 on the open market. Heck im being conservative that's not even taking into account any cap inflation that would probably bump those numbers up or a NYR type team that is willing to go far beyond what's reasonable (you just know a team like NYR would completely ignore age and would be willing to offer up the same value in all 8 years, not that Kopi is interested in going elsewhere but I'd bet there are multiple teams out there who would do it even if he's 36 by the end of it).
 
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Just remember, Kane and Toews are being paid a lot more than 10.5 for the first couple of years. Contract salary structure, year by year:

$13.8 million
$13.8 million
$13.8 million
$12 million
$9.8 million
$7 million
$6.9 million
$6.9 million

AAV: $10.5 million

Adjust for age and a cap that's likely on its way up. Gotta be the starting point for Kopi's agent, right? I mean Kopi is a bit older so you might be able to shave a couple mil of the back end, but at the same time if the cap is going up they're gonna be asking for more.
 
BigBrown said:
Just remember, Kane and Toews are being paid a lot more than 10.5 for the first couple of years. Contract salary structure, year by year:

$13.8 million
$13.8 million
$13.8 million
$12 million
$9.8 million
$7 million
$6.9 million
$6.9 million

AAV: $10.5 million

Adjust for age and a cap that's likely on its way up. Gotta be the starting point for Kopi's agent, right? I mean Kopi is a bit older so you might be able to shave a couple mil of the back end, but at the same time if the cap is going up they're gonna be asking for more.
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That changes it even more. I had a brainfart looking at Capgeek's year to year caphit thinking it was salary.
 
Of course it will be a max deal but I think the cap hit will be around 7.5m to 8m with the first couple of years the payout will be 10+m and the last year will around 5+m.
 
BigBrown said:
Just remember, Kane and Toews are being paid a lot more than 10.5 for the first couple of years. Contract salary structure, year by year:

$13.8 million
$13.8 million
$13.8 million
$12 million
$9.8 million
$7 million
$6.9 million
$6.9 million

AAV: $10.5 million

Adjust for age and a cap that's likely on its way up. Gotta be the starting point for Kopi's agent, right? I mean Kopi is a bit older so you might be able to shave a couple mil of the back end, but at the same time if the cap is going up they're gonna be asking for more.
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If a 33 year old Kane is making 6.9, then Lombardi could absolutely argue that a 36 year old Kopitar should make far less.

Don't undervalue the last two years of these contracts being at 35 and 36 years old. That's a major age threshold for any player to hit and their value starts to drop significantly.

If Brisson wants to play hardball and say "we could get a 5 year deal at 12 million per" then that's all on Kopitar. Does he want to leave the team he's won Cups with for what could amount to a few more million dollars per year, in the long run?

Players value term almost as much as dollar value. Longer contracts mean job security. Every professional athlete is haunted by the idea that one injury could literally end their career on the spot. Do we really think Kopitar will split at the opportunity to make league max for 5 years with a different team, versus near league max for 3-4 years, followed by back diving years as he approaches retirement?
 
Richie10 said:
If a 33 year old Kane is making 6.9, then Lombardi could absolutely argue that a 36 year old Kopitar should make far less.

Don't undervalue the last two years of these contracts being at 35 and 36 years old. That's a major age threshold for any player to hit and their value starts to drop significantly.

If Brisson wants to play hardball and say "we could get a 5 year deal at 12 million per" then that's all on Kopitar. Does he want to leave the team he's won Cups with for what could amount to a few more million dollars per year, in the long run?

Players value term almost as much as dollar value. Longer contracts mean job security. Every professional athlete is haunted by the idea that one injury could literally end their career on the spot. Do we really think Kopitar will split at the opportunity to make league max for 5 years with a different team, versus near league max for 3-4 years, followed by back diving years as he approaches retirement?
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I think Kopitar would rather be on an excellent team and make good money than to be on a good team and make excellent money. In a cap world the greed of one player can greatly affect the ability to sign other talent. Who cares if you are one of the top paid players in the league if your team constantly exits in the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs? I would think there are at least a few players in the league that value winning over a slightly higher pay check. I hope Kopitar does not prove me wrong.
 
BigBrown said:
Just remember, Kane and Toews are being paid a lot more than 10.5 for the first couple of years. Contract salary structure, year by year:

$13.8 million
$13.8 million
$13.8 million
$12 million
$9.8 million
$7 million
$6.9 million
$6.9 million

AAV: $10.5 million

Adjust for age and a cap that's likely on its way up. Gotta be the starting point for Kopi's agent, right? I mean Kopi is a bit older so you might be able to shave a couple mil of the back end, but at the same time if the cap is going up they're gonna be asking for more.
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Good point. But as long as we're just doing the "what if" thing. What about something like:
12.5
12.5
12.5
11
9
6.25
6.25
6.25

AAV: 9.53


Assuming the cap goes up the average of ~7.6% the cap would be about 74 million next year. That deal would put Kopi at about 13% of the team's cap space that first year, which is a bit higher than his last deal which started out at 12%. It's still an AAV of over a million more per year than Getzlaf's last deal.

Seem plausible?
 
Captain Ron said:
I think Kopitar would rather be on an excellent team and make good money than to be on a good team and make excellent money. In a cap world the greed of one player can greatly affect the ability to sign other talent. Who cares if you are one of the top paid players in the league if your team constantly exits in the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs? I would think there are at least a few players in the league that value winning over a slightly higher pay check. I hope Kopitar does not prove me wrong.
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I tend to think Kopitar will lean that way too. Gaborik proved he was willing to take lower pay to keep this ball rolling and I think Kopitar realizes that and will want to do the same. I think he'll want to a nice pay raise but not need one at the level of Toews/Kane.
 
Davit17 said:
if toews can get 10 then Kopi deserves 11. Toews is very overatted imo
Click to expand...

This is where Dean would say, "I'm not as dumb as Stan Bowman."

Of course Dean also has a huge advantage in having Jeff Carter and Jonathan Quick locked up at a cap hits of less than $6M for the rest of their prime years.

Still Kopitar demanding $11M a season would likely force some movement on the roster. Kopitar doesn't strike me as the kind of teammate that would want to see a guy traded just so he can get his.
 
KINGS17 said:
This is where Dean would say, "I'm not as dumb as Stan Bowman."

Of course Dean also has a huge advantage in having Jeff Carter and Jonathan Quick locked up at a cap hits of less than $6M for the rest of their prime years.

Still Kopitar demanding $11M a season would likely force some movement on the roster. Kopitar doesn't strike me as the kind of teammate that would want to see a guy traded just so he can get his.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Hawks fans fly off the handle when any King fan suggests Kopitar will take a marginal pay cut to remain with the team, but that's just the kind of person Kopitar strikes us as. I really can't imagine any situation in which Kopitar takes some kind of hardline approach and demands the moon. That's simply not his personality.

He's also shown he's willing to ditch his agent if things aren't going the way he feels they should, which happened a few years ago. I'm not worried about Brisson steering Kopi in some crazy, money grubbing direction he's not comfortable with.
 
Rorschach said:
Of course it will be a max deal but I think the cap hit will be around 7.5m to 8m with the first couple of years the payout will be 10+m and the last year will around 5+m.
Click to expand...

The Black1963 said:
Yeah, 8 yr is a no-brainer. I still say it'll be south of 8M, but it wouldn't surprise me, if it was a bit over...let's say as high as 8.5M.
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Um what? Really? This is just very very overly optimistic for hoping to help the Kings cap situation. Kopitar should be starting at 12+ million per season based on Toews contract. I imagine Kings will start numbers you guys are saying. I think the middle ground will be more like 9.5-10.5 million over 8 years. Yes it takes him a little longer than Toews or Kane but that doesn't hugely effect his contract discussion, IMO. This is the going rate for top players in the new NHL, he's much better than Perry or Getzlaf. That's just life.
 
I say 8.125 million cap hit. It would break down like this
year 1 10 million
year 2 10 million
3 10 million
4 9 million
5 8 million
6 7 million
7 6 million
8 5 million

65 million 8 years = 8.125 cap hit
 
KingCanadain1976 said:
I say 8.125 million cap hit. It would break down like this
year 1 10 million
year 2 10 million
3 10 million
4 9 million
5 8 million
6 7 million
7 6 million
8 5 million

65 million 8 years = 8.125 cap hit
Click to expand...

So Kopitar is getting paid less in year 1 that Toews makes as an average? Really?
 
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