Kopitar's next contract?

[Raccoon Jesus]

I think we're mistaking though that contract values are going to just continue escalating. The cap still has to go up too, and teams still have to be able to afford it. Keep in mind that we're just now getting back to pre-lockout contract values (remember was it...Holik? or Guerin? at 9 million a year? yeesh. That one was the beginning of the end).

I'm sticking to my guns at 8.5 unless he has a monster time with Gaborik. Even then, 9.

 

[kingsfan]

I think we're mistaking though that contract values are going to just continue escalating. The cap still has to go up too, and teams still have to be able to afford it. Keep in mind that we're just now getting back to pre-lockout contract values (remember was it...Holik? or Guerin? at 9 million a year? yeesh. That one was the beginning of the end).

I'm sticking to my guns at 8.5 unless he has a monster time with Gaborik. Even then, 9.

The reason they got $9 million was because they were on the open market, Kopitar resigning with us wouldn't be. Open market Kopi gets $12 million I'd wager from some team desperate for a first line centre that has deep pockets (Toronto?), so for him to resign at $9 million would require a $3 million discount per year, or 25%. Over an eight year deal that's $24 million.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The reason they got $9 million was because they were on the open market, Kopitar resigning with us wouldn't be. Open market Kopi gets $12 million I'd wager from some team desperate for a first line centre that has deep pockets (Toronto?), so for him to resign at $9 million would require a $3 million discount per year, or 25%. Over an eight year deal that's $24 million.

My point is only that contracts aren't going to keep growing hand-over-hand ad nauseum. I agree that TO would toss money towards any 1C's way (I'm sure they'll throw it at Stamkos), but I still don't think the cap is going to grow the way others seem to think it will, and regardless of discounts, Kopi doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to eat that much of our cap. I know he's not (and shouldn't) going to leave a ton on the table that simply, but I think a lot of us are overreacting to the Toews/Kane signings. I still think those will be the exceptions rather than the rule. Just my opinion, I know it's the outlier, but I feel like we've seen this movie before.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

First off anyone thinking Kopitar will get more then 8.5 cap hit simply isn't paying attension to how Dean does contracts. Next before anyone thinks i think Kopitar isn't worth more then 8.5 your wrong I put Kopitar in the top 5 in the league talent wise and worth more then staal getlaff towes kane etc. Kopitar is a smart man. He knows this team is special and signing for less will leave money to make the team stronger in the long run. Dean is putting together a special team and Kopitar is the last piece to nail down long term. However there is no way Dean will have that big of a gap between the top player in pay and the next guy ( which would be Drew at 7 cap hit wise) 1.5 million is about the most i can see. Anze knows that he ll get a ton of cash and playing on a winning team for most of his carer is worth the money he will give up.

 

[johnjm22]

I tend to agree, I have just spitballed ideas comparing structure of the Toews deal to where it is at the age that Kopi will be when his deal starts.

However, who else was getting $6.8M (or thereabouts) coming off an ELC in 09-10?

PS was his closest comp at the time.

Started new contracts in 09-10 coming off ELC's:

Stastny 6.6M Previous 3 seasons: 185PTS 193GP
Kopitar 6.8M Previous 3 seasons: 204PTS 236GP
Malkin 8.7M Previous 3 seasons: 304PTS 242GP

I'm probably forgetting someone. But a lot of younger forwards signed big deals around that time in the neighborhood of 6M-8M.

 

[johnjm22]

First off anyone thinking Kopitar will get more then 8.5 cap hit simply isn't paying attension to how Dean does contracts.

So what players has Dean signed in their prime, for long term, that took significant discounts?

The new CBA makes it difficult to structure these types of contracts in a way that lowers the cap hits.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

So what players has Dean signed in their prime, for long term, that took significant discounts?

The new CBA makes it difficult to structure these types of contracts in a way that lowers the cap hits.

Well not really a fair question because who really would qualify in the last two years. However i say you can look at Gaborik and Greene cap hits and say they are lower then they could get on the market. You can also look at Browns contract and argue that he would have been higher on the open market at the time he signed. He has also signed long term quick which imo would be higher outside of la.

 

[kingsfan]

My point is only that contracts aren't going to keep growing hand-over-hand ad nauseum. I agree that TO would toss money towards any 1C's way (I'm sure they'll throw it at Stamkos), but I still don't think the cap is going to grow the way others seem to think it will, and regardless of discounts, Kopi doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to eat that much of our cap. I know he's not (and shouldn't) going to leave a ton on the table that simply, but I think a lot of us are overreacting to the Toews/Kane signings. I still think those will be the exceptions rather than the rule. Just my opinion, I know it's the outlier, but I feel like we've seen this movie before.

Kopi signed his recent deal in 2008. Following that season, the cap was announced as $56.7 million for the following season when his new salary took effect. The $6.8 million he earning represented 11.99 per cent of the total cap in that first year. Let's assume the cap jumps to $75 million for 2015-2016 which is the final year of the current deal and the goes to $78 million for 2016-2017 which would be the first year his new salary would take affect. 11.99% of $78 million is $9.35 million.

So even if he just takes the same cap percentage as last time, he'd still exceed your $9 million max.

However, to go further, Kopitar's last contract only ate up a few years of UFA status, most of it was as an RFA where he has some restrictions. This contract is without restrictions, it would be totally for UFA years, years when he could get maximum dollars. The percentage could go much higher and he knows he does have the leverage to get it -in LA or elsewhere. Now I do agree, I think Kopi will stay in LA and will take a discount, but to say even if he has a monster year he'll top out at $9 million is looking at the issue with rose colorad glasses.

First off anyone thinking Kopitar will get more then 8.5 cap hit simply isn't paying attension to how Dean does contracts. Next before anyone thinks i think Kopitar isn't worth more then 8.5 your wrong I put Kopitar in the top 5 in the league talent wise and worth more then staal getlaff towes kane etc. Kopitar is a smart man. He knows this team is special and signing for less will leave money to make the team stronger in the long run. Dean is putting together a special team and Kopitar is the last piece to nail down long term. However there is no way Dean will have that big of a gap between the top player in pay and the next guy ( which would be Drew at 7 cap hit wise) 1.5 million is about the most i can see. Anze knows that he ll get a ton of cash and playing on a winning team for most of his carer is worth the money he will give up.

All of the contracts Dean has signed involve RFA's or contracts that span RFA into UFA years. If Doughty was a UFA he'd have received more than $7 million. Comparing Drew's contract to Kopi's next contract is like comparing lemons and ninjas.

I'm not saying you are wrong, but I will gladly wager with you that Kopitar will both resign with the Kings and get over $8.5 million. I'd be beyond shocked if he signed for less. There's a difference between taking less than what you can get on the open market and screwing yourself over, and signing for $8.5 million (or less) would be leaving $3-$4 million a year on the table, or upwards of $32 million on an eight year deal. You guys are crazy if you think Kopitar would walk away from that much salary, not to mention the NHLPA would **** a canary if he did that.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Kopi signed his recent deal in 2008. Following that season, the cap was announced as $56.7 million for the following season when his new salary took effect. The $6.8 million he earning represented 11.99 per cent of the total cap in that first year. Let's assume the cap jumps to $75 million for 2015-2016 which is the final year of the current deal and the goes to $78 million for 2016-2017 which would be the first year his new salary would take affect. 11.99% of $78 million is $9.35 million.

So even if he just takes the same cap percentage as last time, he'd still exceed your $9 million max.

However, to go further, Kopitar's last contract only ate up a few years of UFA status, most of it was as an RFA where he has some restrictions. This contract is without restrictions, it would be totally for UFA years, years when he could get maximum dollars. The percentage could go much higher and he knows he does have the leverage to get it -in LA or elsewhere. Now I do agree, I think Kopi will stay in LA and will take a discount, but to say even if he has a monster year he'll top out at $9 million is looking at the issue with rose colorad glasses.

All of the contracts Dean has signed involve RFA's or contracts that span RFA into UFA years. If Doughty was a UFA he'd have received more than $7 million. Comparing Drew's contract to Kopi's next contract is like comparing lemons and ninjas.

I'm not saying you are wrong, but I will gladly wager with you that Kopitar will both resign with the Kings and get over $8.5 million. I'd be beyond shocked if he signed for less. There's a difference between taking less than what you can get on the open market and screwing yourself over, and signing for $8.5 million (or less) would be leaving $3-$4 million a year on the table, or upwards of $32 million on an eight year deal. You guys are crazy if you think Kopitar would walk away from that much salary, not to mention the NHLPA would **** a canary if he did that.

I giggled at the last line. Though I think the NHLPA is less focused on Kopitar and more focused on Toews and Stamkos as they're driving the cash wagon for the 1Cs.

Everything you said is well reasoned and makes sense, and you guys are probably right that a discount for Kopi in that year does probably look like 9-9.5, especially as a percentage of the cap. I know this sounds like a total cop out but call it just a gut feeling for me, I think it will be around 8.5. I definitely would be just as shocked as you if it were less, though. I think he's worth every penny--I just get a vibe.

Then again, in support of your argument, a lot of the contracts that are 'hurting' us in the current climate according to posters here (Brown, Richards, Quick) will look like bargains dollar-wise at that point, so maybe a 9+ contract wouldn't be as crippling as it sounds, especially since it's not paying your stars that is a problem (Doughty, Kopitar should get pretty much blank checks from the org), it's those second tier guys getting beefy contracts--and in our case, those second tier guys are getting paid below projected market value in two years. When 2Cs on the open market (Stastny, even if he's masquerading as a 1C) are getting 7/year, Carter getting less than 6 is drool-worth.

Maybe our cap isn't so terrible going forward despite our RFAs and UFAs.

 

[KopitarFAN]

PS was his closest comp at the time.

Started new contracts in 09-10 coming off ELC's:

Stastny 6.6M Previous 3 seasons: 185PTS 193GP
Kopitar 6.8M Previous 3 seasons: 204PTS 236GP
Malkin 8.7M Previous 3 seasons: 304PTS 242GP

I'm probably forgetting someone. But a lot of younger forwards signed big deals around that time in the neighborhood of 6M-8M.

Good to know, their was no sarcasm intended, strictly for informational purposes.

 

[Captain Ron]

The best thing in regards to Kopitar's contract is that it takes him all of the way until he is 36 years old. All of the contracts given to star players over the past couple of years have a significant reduction in the years after they turn 30 years of age and beyond. So while he might make $12-13 million a year for the first couple years of the contract it should come down to about $6-7 million by the last 2 years of the deal. That alone should bring the average to about $9-9.5 range. Something like...

$13
$13
$10.5
$10.5
$8
$8
$6.5
$6.5

 

[Chain]

Kopi signed his recent deal in 2008. Following that season, the cap was announced as $56.7 million for the following season when his new salary took effect. The $6.8 million he earning represented 11.99 per cent of the total cap in that first year. Let's assume the cap jumps to $75 million for 2015-2016 which is the final year of the current deal and the goes to $78 million for 2016-2017 which would be the first year his new salary would take affect. 11.99% of $78 million is $9.35 million.

So even if he just takes the same cap percentage as last time, he'd still exceed your $9 million max.

However, to go further, Kopitar's last contract only ate up a few years of UFA status, most of it was as an RFA where he has some restrictions. This contract is without restrictions, it would be totally for UFA years, years when he could get maximum dollars. The percentage could go much higher and he knows he does have the leverage to get it -in LA or elsewhere. Now I do agree, I think Kopi will stay in LA and will take a discount, but to say even if he has a monster year he'll top out at $9 million is looking at the issue with rose colorad glasses.



All of the contracts Dean has signed involve RFA's or contracts that span RFA into UFA years. If Doughty was a UFA he'd have received more than $7 million. Comparing Drew's contract to Kopi's next contract is like comparing lemons and ninjas.

I'm not saying you are wrong, but I will gladly wager with you that Kopitar will both resign with the Kings and get over $8.5 million. I'd be beyond shocked if he signed for less. There's a difference between taking less than what you can get on the open market and screwing yourself over, and signing for $8.5 million (or less) would be leaving $3-$4 million a year on the table, or upwards of $32 million on an eight year deal. You guys are crazy if you think Kopitar would walk away from that much salary, not to mention the NHLPA would **** a canary if he did that.

I still don't understand this logic. I know it's been mentioned earlier, but it seems to me they would only care if they're only concerned about the top players or if they could increase the cap as a share of the revenue. Considering they just fought over it a few years ago and had to agree to no more than 50% of the revenue like the other major sports leagues, their odds of getting a larger share of the revenue are very low. If they're concerned about all the players they aren't going to care if the stars take a discount, as long as each team is using up most of its cap. Money that's going to a star, isn't going to another player.

If the NHLPA only cares about the stars, it makes sense to have the stars push for a bigger piece of the cap pie. If they truly represent all of the players, then it makes sense for them to not care if the stars are willing to take a discount provided that money is being spread among the other players. If the NHLPA truly represents all the players than they may even prefer the latter.

I do agree that Kopitar isn't going to sign for less than $9 million though.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

All of the contracts Dean has signed involve RFA's or contracts that span RFA into UFA years. If Doughty was a UFA he'd have received more than $7 million. Comparing Drew's contract to Kopi's next contract is like comparing lemons and ninjas.

I'm not saying you are wrong, but I will gladly wager with you that Kopitar will both resign with the Kings and get over $8.5 million. I'd be beyond shocked if he signed for less. There's a difference between taking less than what you can get on the open market and screwing yourself over, and signing for $8.5 million (or less) would be leaving $3-$4 million a year on the table, or upwards of $32 million on an eight year deal. You guys are crazy if you think Kopitar would walk away from that much salary, not to mention the NHLPA would **** a canary if he did that.

you give me to 8.7 and u name the bet Team first is something hes bought into imo.

 

[kingsfan]

I giggled at the last line. Though I think the NHLPA is less focused on Kopitar and more focused on Toews and Stamkos as they're driving the cash wagon for the 1Cs.

Everything you said is well reasoned and makes sense, and you guys are probably right that a discount for Kopi in that year does probably look like 9-9.5, especially as a percentage of the cap. I know this sounds like a total cop out but call it just a gut feeling for me, I think it will be around 8.5. I definitely would be just as shocked as you if it were less, though. I think he's worth every penny--I just get a vibe.

Then again, in support of your argument, a lot of the contracts that are 'hurting' us in the current climate according to posters here (Brown, Richards, Quick) will look like bargains dollar-wise at that point, so maybe a 9+ contract wouldn't be as crippling as it sounds, especially since it's not paying your stars that is a problem (Doughty, Kopitar should get pretty much blank checks from the org), it's those second tier guys getting beefy contracts--and in our case, those second tier guys are getting paid below projected market value in two years. When 2Cs on the open market (Stastny, even if he's masquerading as a 1C) are getting 7/year, Carter getting less than 6 is drool-worth.

Maybe our cap isn't so terrible going forward despite our RFAs and UFAs.

Let me say that I'll ship your gut a burger if it's 'feeling' is correct. I'll gladly see my logic lose to your gut feeling

I still don't understand this logic. I know it's been mentioned earlier, but it seems to me they would only care if they're only concerned about the top players or if they could increase the cap as a share of the revenue. Considering they just fought over it a few years ago and had to agree to no more than 50% of the revenue like the other major sports leagues, their odds of getting a larger share of the revenue are very low. If they're concerned about all the players they aren't going to care if the stars take a discount, as long as each team is using up most of its cap. Money that's going to a star, isn't going to another player.

If the NHLPA only cares about the stars, it makes sense to have the stars push for a bigger piece of the cap pie. If they truly represent all of the players, then it makes sense for them to not care if the stars are willing to take a discount provided that money is being spread among the other players. If the NHLPA truly represents all the players than they may even prefer the latter.

I do agree that Kopitar isn't going to sign for less than $9 million though.

I think it's the latter. If the NHLPA was so worried about the lower players, they'd be willing to see the max percentage of the cap for one player (20%) go down in exchange for a higher minimum salary ($550,000). I believe, and I could be wrong for sure on this, but the minimum salary has only gone up twice since the 2005 CBA was signed, yet the maximum salary a player can get has gone from $7.5 million to $14.04 million with an increase each year minus this season when the cap went down due to the last lockout.

There are 18 players making more than $7.5 million per season today, and at least 33 more making $6.5 million or more. The stars sell the game, they bring fans in, they are the ones that pad the NHL wallet which in turn increases revenues which in turn increases the players cut. People come to watch Kopitar, not Trevor Lewis. Losing a guy like Jagr was tough to swallow when he bolted to Europe, the last thing the league and the NHLPA wants is to see more stars head overseas, so they will get paid at the expense of the little guy to ensure they don't get scooped up by the KHL.

 

[kingsfan]

you give me to 8.7 and u name the bet Team first is something hes bought into imo.

Just a friendly wager, or some vcash if you wish.

I'll give you to $8.5 million and I say it's $9 million or higher. We'll say anything in between is a push.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

Just a friendly wager, or some vcash if you wish.

I'll give you to $8.5 million and I say it's $9 million or higher. We'll say anything in between is a push.

friendly wager is perfect for me its a bet this is cap hit right ?

 

[kingsfan]

friendly wager is perfect for me its a bet this is cap hit right ?

Correct

 

[KingCanadain1976]

Correct

done deal to bad we are going to have to wait close to 2 years to find out.

 

[KopitarFAN]

done deal to bad we are going to have to wait close to 2 years to find out.

About 12 months, they can and probably will have a new deal in place by this time next year.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

About 12 months, they can and probably will have a new deal in place by this time next year.

I don't see him signing till after the playoffs in two. I hope i m wrong but i think that will be the time frame.

 

[kingsfan]

About 12 months, they can and probably will have a new deal in place by this time next year.

Possibly for sure. Quick had a deal in place by this time with one year left on his deal, and DL does seem to like to get contracts out of the way now instead of after. I don't see Kopitar making it to October, 2015, without an extension unless there is a serious problem in some form.

 

[tsanuri]

I don't see him signing till after the playoffs in two. I hope i m wrong but i think that will be the time frame.

That would fly against everything DL has tried to do. When was the last player that he was keeping, no matter what, that made it even close to FA? And what your saying would mean, if the Kings managed to win the cup that year, is within 2-3 weeks of him making it to FA.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

That would fly against everything DL has tried to do. When was the last player that he was keeping, no matter what, that made it even close to FA? And what your saying would mean, if the Kings managed to win the cup that year, is within 2-3 weeks of him making it to FA.

Well there is sorta a prescent for this. The stoll extension greene extension and gaboriks extension. I think they will have a extension in place sometime during the playoffs and announce it in the two to three weeks after another cup. I really don't see this as a issue/. Dean always waits till the last min to resign people umm last year clifford drew the year before. king this year

 

[kingsfan]

Well there is sorta a prescent for this. The stoll extension greene extension and gaboriks extension. I think they will have a extension in place sometime during the playoffs and announce it in the two to three weeks after another cup. I really don't see this as a issue/. Dean always waits till the last min to resign people umm last year clifford drew the year before. king this year

Gaborik's can't be used, he was acquired at the deadline so DL couldn't negotiate an extension ahead of time with him.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

Gaborik's can't be used, he was acquired at the deadline so DL couldn't negotiate an extension ahead of time with him.

well he could have tried to be resigned as soon as he was aquired imo that makes it use able. Yes he didn't have a lot of time but still waited till after the playoffs.