Kopitar; For or Against a trade if it comes to it?

[Choralone]

Building a team that can win the cup is fraught with uncertainty. Yet we have a team with a core that won the cup twice in the last four years. That's as close to certainty as you can hope to get in this league.

But now some are arguing we should move out a key piece - one who is still at the top of his game - with little chance of receiving someone who can fill his shoes in the next few years. Why, to draw the line on some sort of theoretical value? Because it will limit our depth to augment the team in the future?

We've signed some excessive contracts to other veterans, including Brown, Greene, and Martinez. But having reservations about those contracts should not mean we're going to draw the line with Kopitar of all people. Move those other contracts then and plug the holes with cheaper players. I'd rather our depth be affected than the core. Don't go cheap with the linchpin of your team. Without a true 1C we're the St. Louis Blues.

I think Lombardi is the best GM we've ever had by a country mile. But it's a tall order expecting him or a future GM to put it all together again for another cup run with an entirely different core. Moving Kopitar would mean doing just that.

In other words, screw the future - strike now while the iron is hot. We'll sort out the future when we get there.

 

[HYORI 1963]

The problem is it's already been reported that he doesn't want to negotiate during the season. We of course don't know how true that is. But if true doesn't matter when a trade would happen he wouldn't negotiate.

But onto the other part all together. The talk of trading our number 1 center and leading scorer for the last 7 years. It would go down as the worst move this team has ever made. And that is saying something with the amount of bonehead moves this team has made.

Well, keep in mind, I'm not for trading Kopi. I'm just saying that I don't think it'll be the end of the world, which you apparently disagree with.

 

[cyclones22]

Building a team that can win the cup is fraught with uncertainty. Yet we have a team with a core that won the cup twice in the last four years. That's as close to certainty as you can hope to get in this league.

But now some are arguing we should move out a key piece - one who is still at the top of his game - with little chance of receiving someone who can fill his shoes in the next few years. Why, to draw the line on some sort of theoretical value? Because it will limit our depth to augment the team in the future?

We've signed some excessive contracts to other veterans, including Brown, Greene, and Martinez. But having reservations about those contracts should not mean we're going to draw the line with Kopitar of all people. Move those other contracts then and plug the holes with cheaper players. I'd rather our depth be affected than the core. Don't go cheap with the linchpin of your team. Without a true 1C we're the St. Louis Blues.

I think Lombardi is the best GM we've ever had by a country mile. But it's a tall order expecting him or a future GM to put it all together again for another cup run with an entirely different core. Moving Kopitar would mean doing just that.

In other words, screw the future - strike now while the iron is hot. We'll sort out the future when we get there.

Yep, I've been a fan for well over 35+ years and no f'ing way do I really even care about 5 years from now more than I do about next season or the season after. If you're a team that hasn't won it recently with your core, then go ahead and plan on how to extend your window of trying to win just 1. If you're a team that's actually won it recently, sell out to add more trophies to that trophy case while you still can reasonably be called a contender. Don't pull some stupid Jerry Krause crap and try to outsmart yourself. And in case some of you were wondering, the Kings are STILL very much a contender/favorite to win this upcoming season.

 

[HYORI 1963]

FWIW, the oilers traded their 1C Gretzky in '88, and won the cup the next year.

 

[Choralone]

FWIW, the oilers traded their 1C Gretzky in '88, and won the cup the next year.

No. They were eliminated by Gretzky and his new team in the first round the next year

 

[HYORI 1963]

No. They were eliminated by Gretzky and his new team in the first round the next year

I'm talking about 89-90. The Oilers won the cup that year.

 

[King'sPawn]

An interesting analysis from an offensive production standpoint. Note that if Kopitar doesn't pick it up offensively with more goal scoring, he will be approaching David Backes territory when it comes to offense.

http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-...-advanced-stats-to-classify-nhl-center-types/

This analysis and comparison is borderline hogwash.

First thing's first, Kopitar has consistently led the team in scoring every year except for one. This is while also playing penalty killing minutes. He has also been the consistent point scoring leader in the playoffs.

Backes led his team in scoring once in his career and tied for the lead another year. He has never led his team in playoff scoring.

Second of all, MOST of the players go through goal scoring slumps. Getzlaf had a stretch of 1 goal in 11 games and 1 goal in 10 games last season. A stretch of 2 goals in 21 games the season before that.

Jonathan Toews had a stretch of 1 goal in 13 games last season. He had a stretch of 1 goal in 14 games the season prior.

You know who doesn't go through those slumps? Rocket Richard winners. Evgeni Malkin went the last 10 games of the season, when the Penguins were fighting for a playoff spot, without a goal. He had a stretch of 0 goals in 15 games the season prior.

This narrative of Kopitar not busting his ass because he goes through a goal scoring slump annually is just parroted ignorance.

 

[KINGS17]

This analysis and comparison is borderline hogwash.

First thing's first, Kopitar has consistently led the team in scoring every year except for one. This is while also playing penalty killing minutes. He has also been the consistent point scoring leader in the playoffs.

Backes led his team in scoring once in his career and tied for the lead another year. He has never led his team in playoff scoring.

Second of all, MOST of the players go through goal scoring slumps. Getzlaf had a stretch of 1 goal in 11 games and 1 goal in 10 games last season. A stretch of 2 goals in 21 games the season before that.

Jonathan Toews had a stretch of 1 goal in 13 games last season. He had a stretch of 1 goal in 14 games the season prior.

You know who doesn't go through those slumps? Rocket Richard winners. Evgeni Malkin went the last 10 games of the season, when the Penguins were fighting for a playoff spot, without a goal. He had a stretch of 0 goals in 15 games the season prior.

This narrative of Kopitar not busting his ass because he goes through a goal scoring slump annually is just parroted ignorance.

Is watching him consistently do laps around the boards in the offensive zone when he goes through one of those slumps parroted ignorance? Frankly, I expect better from you. Try to think a little.

Building a team that can win the cup is fraught with uncertainty. Yet we have a team with a core that won the cup twice in the last four years. That's as close to certainty as you can hope to get in this league.

But now some are arguing we should move out a key piece - one who is still at the top of his game - with little chance of receiving someone who can fill his shoes in the next few years. Why, to draw the line on some sort of theoretical value? Because it will limit our depth to augment the team in the future?

We've signed some excessive contracts to other veterans, including Brown, Greene, and Martinez. But having reservations about those contracts should not mean we're going to draw the line with Kopitar of all people. Move those other contracts then and plug the holes with cheaper players. I'd rather our depth be affected than the core. Don't go cheap with the linchpin of your team. Without a true 1C we're the St. Louis Blues.

I think Lombardi is the best GM we've ever had by a country mile. But it's a tall order expecting him or a future GM to put it all together again for another cup run with an entirely different core. Moving Kopitar would mean doing just that.

In other words, screw the future - strike now while the iron is hot. We'll sort out the future when we get there.

No, I only advocate trading Kopitar if he won't sign a reasonable contract extension, and only if it's the right deal. People like you advocate signing him at all cost. i am much more flexible, and don't think Dean should just give in to Kopitar's agent.

 

[KINGS17]

Sometimes I wonder how well you understand building a team versus just regurgitating every Dean-ism you can think of. Stop shilling for management and think about what you're saying. No team who wants to contend gives away their top center at age 29.

There is a ton of data which suggests the Kings are a better team with Kopitar on the ice, our abysmal record without him notwithstanding. No one is saying give him 12 million dollars a year. Stop hyperbolizing this. The market has been set for a player of Kopitar's tier. He will get his money. Period. GMs may be wising up to giving people Clarkson deals, but players like Toews, Kopitar, Stamkos etc will always get paid.

Stop bending over backwards to **** on the guy. Everyone is aware of his faults. For ****'s sake man, he leads the team in scoring every regular season and in the playoffs. And you're *****ing about him running on the treadmill more during the offseason? Give your head a shake.

The last time I saw this was around Christmas-time 2011.

How did that turn out?

 

[KINGS17]

Sign Kopitar and move on. Done.

Agreed. Five years, $43M. Where do we sign. That's right around Getzlaf money.

 

[Choralone]

No, I only advocate trading Kopitar if he won't sign a reasonable contract extension, and only if it's the right deal. People like you advocate signing him at all cost. i am much more flexible, and don't think Dean should just give in to Kopitar's agent.

I don't advocate signing him "at all costs" - but I am advocating for signing him up to Toews money. I'd like to sign him for less, for sure, but I'm sanguine that he's a special talent with skills not easily replaced, that we're competing for him in a highly competitive market, and that we need his or comparable skills now - not years from now. All that means I'll pay a premium to keep him.

FWIW, I think he'll be flexible on salary, but not on term. He's going to want something that pays him to the end of his career.

 

[Choralone]

I'm talking about 89-90. The Oilers won the cup that year.

That's not quite the same as "next year" - you skipped a disappointing season in between - but ok. I'd argue that the Oilers left a lot more cups on the table by trading him, though.

 

[KINGS17]

I don't advocate signing him "at all costs" - but I am advocating for signing him up to Toews money. I'd like to sign him for less, for sure, but I'm sanguine that he's a special talent with skills not easily replaced, that we're competing for him in a highly competitive market, and that we need his or comparable skills now - not years from now. All that means I'll pay a premium to keep him.

FWIW, I think he'll be flexible on salary, but not on term. He's going to want something that pays him to the end of his career.

This pretty much screws up the Kings cap and prevents them from surrounding Kopitar with the players necessary to win a Stanley Cup.

 

[King'sPawn]

Is watching him consistently do laps around the boards in the offensive zone when he goes through one of those slumps parroted ignorance? Frankly, I expect better from you. Try to think a little.

Do you watch all the Blackhawks, Ducks, and Penguins games and able to reach a different conclusion about Toews, Getzlaf, and Malkin during their scoring slumps?

Nobody is denying he can do better. You seem to be in denial that other elite players go through it.

Barring his fitness level, there is not one person in the organization who has said Kopitar's effort level on the ice is unsatisfactory. I'm really amazed that a fan from miles away has better insight.

 

[kingsfan]

So it doesn't matter what they do, it's just bend over and sign him for 8 years and $72M+ and watch him steal around $20M+. Baloney!

His value is higher now on the trade market than it would be if he was purely a rental. Dean could also allow any potential trade partner to negotiate with Kopitar's agent pre-trade.

I'll say this for Kopitar, if he signs the 8-year, big-AAV contract with the Kings he better bust his ass, and he better keep the team in cup contention. I don't want to hear any more quotes out of him where he says no one player has to be great if everyone is doing their job. No more 8-week long winter naps. No more passive play in the offensive zone.

Give us some references then to what a late 20's centre that is a year away from UFA can fetch if DL traded him now or early into the year. Let's see some examples of this sizeable return you seem to figure the Kings can get for dealing Kopitar now.

If Dean's going to trade Kopi, it'd be better sooner than later. Think about it. A team looking to acquire Kopi early on in the season will not only benefit from his play, but will have plenty of time to negotiate on a new deal. And if by close to trade deadline, the team and Kopi can't come to an agreement, then the team has the option of trading him and recoup some of the assets previous lost in acquiring Kopi, or maintain his services and hope for the betterment of the team.

Kings would be on a rebuild if they dealt Kopitar.

 

[KINGS17]

Do you watch all the Blackhawks, Ducks, and Penguins games and able to reach a different conclusion about Toews, Getzlaf, and Malkin during their scoring slumps?

Nobody is denying he can do better. You seem to be in denial that other elite players go through it.

Barring his fitness level, there is not one person in the organization who has said Kopitar's effort level on the ice is unsatisfactory. I'm really amazed that a fan from miles away has better insight.

Here's the difference though. People around their organizations say that Crosby, Toews, Malkin, and Tavares are among the best conditioned players on their teams.

Not sure about Getzlaf, because he doesn't impress me as the wear of a long series goes on. If Kopitar wants the big money, he should bring it in all aspects of his game.

I don't doubt his level of effort once he hits the ice. I think he gets tired from time to time, and when he gets tired he takes a break at the offensive end.

 

[cyclones22]

I don't advocate signing him "at all costs" - but I am advocating for signing him up to Toews money. I'd like to sign him for less, for sure, but I'm sanguine that he's a special talent with skills not easily replaced, that we're competing for him in a highly competitive market, and that we need his or comparable skills now - not years from now. All that means I'll pay a premium to keep him.

FWIW, I think he'll be flexible on salary, but not on term. He's going to want something that pays him to the end of his career.

That's part of the crux on some of these arguments. Coming up with some crazy "Well, what if he wants XXXXXXX for 8 years?! Will you still sign him no matter what?". Which isn't even an argument grounded in reality. Bottom line, if he wants 9m+ for 8 years, you do it.

 

[KINGS17]

That's part of the crux on some of these arguments. Coming up with some crazy "Well, what if he wants XXXXXXX for 8 years?! Will you still sign him no matter what?". Which isn't even an argument grounded in reality. Bottom line, if he wants 9m+ for 8 years, you do it.

This IS the kind of money that is ridiculous on an 8-year deal. Sorry, within 4 to 5 seasons Kopitar likely won't be worth that AAV.

 

[Kingsfan1]

Give Kopitar 9.5 that's 2.7 mill more trade Greenes 2.5 replace internally and your set. Kopitar won't get traded or let him walk free when you have jeappordized the future for more cup runs and signed Gaborik long term also we have no centers. Dean will not want to start from scratch nor is he an idiot. He will sign Kopitar they're just finding ways to make it work. There are no other centers available that will replace Kopitar and we don't have any high end center prospects.

 

[King'sPawn]

Just to add some context about impact to the team, here is a list of a couple player's ranking to his team in the regular season and playoffs. This is just to paint a picture of Kopitar's offensive value to his team (never mind the defense:

Kopitar
06/07 Regular season
Goals: 3rd
Assists: 2nd
Points: 3rd

07/08 Regular season
Goals: 2nd
Assists: 1st
Points: 1st

08/09 Regular season
Goals: 2nd
Assists: 1st
Points: 1st

09/10 Regular Season
Goals: 1st
Assists: 1st
Points: 1st

Playoffs:
Goals: 4th
Assists: 4th (tied)
Points: 3rd (tied)

10/11 Regular Season
Goals: 2nd
Assists: 1st
Points: 1st

11/12 Regular Season
Goals: 1st
Assists: 1st
Points: 1st

Playoffs
Goals: 1st (tied)
Assists: 1st (tied)
Points: 1st (tied)

12/13 Season
Goals: 5th
Assists: 1st
Points: 1st

Playoffs
Goals: 4th (tied)
Assists: 4th
Points: 4th (tied)

13/14 Regular Season
Goals: 1st
Assists: 1st
Points: 1st

Playoffs
Goals: 7th (tied)
Assists: 1st
Points: 1st

14/15 Regular season
Goals: 5th
Assists: 1st
Points: 1st

So aside from his rookie season, Kopitar has consistently been the top scorer on his team.

Jonathan Toews
07/08 Regular season
Goals: 2nd
Assists: 3rd
Points: 3rd (tied)

08/09 Regular season
Goals: 1st
Assists: 5th
Points: 3rd

Playoffs
Goals: 2nd (tied)
Assists: 6th (tied)
Points: 3rd

09/10 Regular Season
Goals: 2nd (tied)
Assists: 3rd
Points: 3rd

Playoffs
Goals: 5th
Assists: 1st
Points: 1st

10/11 Regular Season
Goals: 2nd
Assists: 2nd
Points: 1st

Playoffs
Goals: 8th (tied)
Assists: 4th (tied)
Points: 7th (tied)

11/12 Regular Season
Goals: 2nd (tied)
Assists: 6th
Points: 4th

Playoffs
Goals: 1st (tied)
Assists: 4th (tied)
Points: 1st (tied)

12/13 Regular season
Goals: 1st (tied)
Assists: 2nd
Points: 2nd

Playoffs
Goals: 6th (tied)
Assists: 1st (tied)
Points: 5th

13/14 Regular Season
Goals: 4th
Assists: 3rd (tied)
Points: 3rd

Playoffs
Goals: 1st
Assists: 5th
Points: 2nd

14/15 Regular Season
Goals: 1st
Assists: 2nd
Points: 1st

Playoffs
Goals: 2nd
Assists: 4th
Points: 2nd (tied)

So Toews has led his team in scoring in the regular season twice. He has led his team in scoring in the playoffs twice.

I'm not trying to argue that Kopitar is more valuable or skilled than Toews, but Kopitar's value and contributions to the team are unquestionably on par with Toews.

 

[Rusty Batch]

This IS the kind of money that is ridiculous on an 8-year deal. Sorry, within 4 to 5 seasons Kopitar likely won't be worth that AAV.

I think everyone is ok with kopitar being worth it for 4-5 years and likely not worth it for the last 3 or 4 years. I think we all get it that your not ok with that. Let's just leave it at that.

 

[kilowatt]

This team lives and dies with Kopitar and Doughty. Who could possibly replace Kopitar that wouldn't cost just as much, if not more? Sign Kopitar max term, $9-10 million, and be done with it. Kopitar deserves it. Aside from Doughty, he's the best player on the team. You could even argue that he has more impact than Doughty.

 

[cyclones22]

I think everyone is ok with kopitar being worth it for 4-5 years and likely not worth it for the last 3 or 4 years. I think we all get it that your not ok with that. Let's just leave it at that.

Exactly. It's not difficult to comprehend. It's the price of doing business to try and win that third Cup. You pay the piper eventually or you just start the rebuild now. Screw that. Shed other salaries instead. Of the elite core, in 5 years only Doughty will still be in his prime. Which is why the next few seasons are critical.

 

[Fishhead]

This IS the kind of money that is ridiculous on an 8-year deal. Sorry, within 4 to 5 seasons Kopitar likely won't be worth that AAV.

This is true.

But..

The reason that I would have been fine sucking it up and buying out Richards - the cup window will probably be closing or closed by the time the big cap hits kick in - also applies here. In season 5 or 6, Kopitar probably won't be worth that kind of money (barring a rally by the CDN). But is it really going to matter? It matters more that the team has cap space now while the team is primed to win. In 5 years this team is going to be old with a capital O. The assets aren't there to pry young scorers from other teams and, hopefully, we won't have any high draft picks coming into the system.

The Kings contending anything outside of 5 years is highly unlikely, so Kopitar's cap hit is going to be a moot point. I still don't go to $10M, because that would be damaging to the here and now, but the low $9Ms I would be absolutely fine with.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

I would try to keep it in the 8 mil region if at all possible. Against, no movement clauses.