Rumor: KINGS 2018-19 Season- Luc/Rob ****Show/ Sell Everyone!! Part 3

[crassbonanza]

Another Warning That A 2019 Recession Is Coming

Eh, that's one opinion, there are many people saying the opposite, that we may see slowed growth, but no down turn. Here is a more recent link GDP Report Points To Solid Economic Forecast For 2019

 

[SettlementRichie10]

According to CapFriendly, 2 seasons from this one about to end, at the start of 2022 season, the Kings have a committed cap hit of $27.7M to 4 players.

Kopitar $10m for 2 seasons
Doughty $11m for 5 seasons
Quick $5.8m for 1 season
Mike Richards termination $900k for 3 seasons (drops to $700k in final two years)

Assuming that seasons cap is $100m, they have around $73M available to fill out 20 spots on the rest of the roster. I think it’s safe to assume that at that point of their careers, Quick is a backup goalie, Kopitar is a 3rd line center and Doughty is a #2 defenseman.

That means if the Kings somehow get lucky and have a top center, dman and goalie, they’ll likely need to pay them over $30M combined.

So now you have close to $60m tied up in 6 players and still need to pay 17 other skaters with $40M left to spread around. That works out to an average of a little over $2M a player. To find cup contender quality depth players with that budget and all the other real world constraints is a very risky plan.

If you’re trying to peddle hope and say a return to the Cup is a couple years away, I don’t see how cap space isn’t an asset. Any opportunity to trade Quick must be taken. Kopitar must be shopped for a premium return while any possibility still exists. Doughty should be kept until 2022 unless a ridiculous return is involved. After that he should also move if a deal makes sense and can be had.

Very good write up.

People don’t seem to understand that if the cap rises to $100 million, top players on contending teams will be commanding hits of $15 million or more.

Let’s say we do draft Jack Hughes and he’s a legitimate superstar center. His ELC will expire in 21/22. He could easily command $10 million +++ on his second contract beginning in 22/23 if the cap rises to $100 million. So let’s be conservative and say he settles on $13 million.

So now you’re entering 22/23 with 34% of your cap tied up in a legitimate prime player in Hughes, a 35 year old Kopitar, and a 32 year old Doughty.

Good depth players (second line/second pairing) cost $4-6 million RIGHT NOW. If the cap rises to $100 million, these players will be getting $7-8 million on average.

This is why these retirement contracts are a problem.

 

[Kingspiracy]

I wonder if a lot of this seasons problems stem from a shitty preseason. Didnt brown recently say something about previous practices not being good enough.

The guys played themselves into a hole half assing it. Now they have got to a stage where there is no incentive for the vets to play hard, because they cant win anything. The vets know that they only have so much mileage in them and are floating this year. That is why there is not a lot of point piling on Carter for his play now, the true test will be how the guys perform to start next year.

They should be shutting these guys down or dropping their minutes to protect them, but if they do that the kids play too hard pushing for a permanent roster spot and we start winning. We need that high draft position.

 

[YP44]

Another Warning That A 2019 Recession Is Coming

Counter argument: If the US hits a recession than the Canadian dollar will increase which will make the cap go up.

 

[DoktorJeep]

Where are you finding a Goalie/Defenseman/Center asking for 10 million each? Are you signing UFA's? Because ELC's last 3 years...

Right, so the plan is 3 all stars on ELCs, 3 years from now. Got it, holding my breath.

 

[KINGS17]

Another Warning That A 2019 Recession Is Coming

I will agree that growing at 3% annually is not sustainable. Technically, a recession is defined as any fall in GDP for two consecutive quarters. Are we due for something like that were growth turns negative by less than 0.25% give or take a couple of tenths of a percent for two quarters in a row? Probably.

I think the economy is in a much better position to weather a recession than it was 24 months ago. The Fed has raised interest rates and reduced the government securities held on their balance sheet (quantitative easing in reverse). Both of these "tools" are things they can use to stimulate growth again if needed. I prefer they just let the natural business cycle do it's thing though.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Where are you finding a Goalie/Defenseman/Center asking for 10 million each? Are you signing UFA's? Because ELC's last 3 years...

Top defenseman and centers are commanding $10 million+ RIGHT NOW.

We literally just signed a center and a defenseman for $10 million each.

If the cap rises to $100 million or more in a few years, these prime players will command even more than $10 million.

Chicago managed to win one of their three Cups with Kane and Toews on ELCs. Virtually every other Cup winner post-lockout - including LA - has had their superstars on second or third contracts.

This is exactly why you can’t have a bunch of aging stars on huge contracts if you expect to contend.

 

[KINGS17]

Counter argument: If the US hits a recession than the Canadian dollar will increase which will make the cap go up.

Not necessarily, because when the U.S. economy catches a cold the economies of other countries usually get pneumonia. A slowing of growth could have a negative impact on the price of oil, which hurts the Canadian economy as it is not a diverse as the U.S. economy. Lots of variables though when it comes to currency exchange rates.

Maybe all the new Canadian pot companies save the day though?

 

[DoktorJeep]

Also, the idea is 3 years from now is realistic hope for a cup run, not “another cup” for this years remaining team.

You want to be in a context like Columbus where you have pieces of depth and are in a place as a franchise to make moves to try and put yourself in a position to compete, with the flexibility and assets to do so.

 

[crassbonanza]

Top defenseman and centers are commanding $10 million+ RIGHT NOW.

We literally just signed a center and a defenseman for $10 million each.

If the cap rises to $100 million or more in a few years, these prime players will command even more than $10 million.

Chicago managed to win one of their three Cups with Kane and Toews on ELCs. Virtually every other Cup winner post-lockout - including LA - has had their superstars on second or third contracts.

This is exactly why you can’t have a bunch of aging stars on huge contracts if you expect to contend.

Did you just ignore my comment? I am asking what new center/defenseman/goalie is going to be receiving 10 million each from us? Where are we going to find them? Because if they are not currently on our team they will be on an ELC when the year we are talking about, unless we sign 3 UFA's, which I don't think is the wisest decision.

 

[crassbonanza]

Right, so the plan is 3 all stars on ELCs, 3 years from now. Got it, holding my breath.

I don't understand your point. You are building up a scenario where we have 30 additional million tied up in 3 hypothetical players in order to point out how desperate the cap crunch will be in 3 years. I want to know where you think those 3 super star players will come from.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Kopitar could come back and score 100 points next season (he won't) and the Kings would still be 1st round fodder at best.

There will come a time when Kopitar won't have a bounce back season. It could be as soon as next season.

You can't say that definitively. Sundin was scoring 70 points through the end of his career. Thornton is still scoring at a 53 point pace with a bum knee. etc.

Even if we do what we did previously--apply the typical scoring trajectory by age to Kopitar's production--we found that he'd be, at worst, a 50-60 point player in his late 30s. And that's without accounting for the fact that top-10 scorers don't often have that same cliff, nor the same responsibilities as Kopitar.

I don't understand why everyone is so eager to pass off the possible doomsday scenario as proven fact.

What if this is his bounce back season and it'll only be worse going forward? There comes a day in which it only goes down hill. Every player hits it.

This would be the fair way to question him, I think.

This is exactly what people are just refusing to understand. Even if the the cap ceiling is at $100 million in 2023, you’re still committing 10% of your cap to an old player who will be putting up 15-25-40.

Name a single contender this year or last spending 10% of their cap on a single, non-impact depth player.

See above.

Very good write up.

People don’t seem to understand that if the cap rises to $100 million, top players on contending teams will be commanding hits of $15 million or more.

Let’s say we do draft Jack Hughes and he’s a legitimate superstar center. His ELC will expire in 21/22. He could easily command $10 million +++ on his second contract beginning in 22/23 if the cap rises to $100 million. So let’s be conservative and say he settles on $13 million.

So now you’re entering 22/23 with 34% of your cap tied up in a legitimate prime player in Hughes, a 35 year old Kopitar, and a 32 year old Doughty.

Good depth players (second line/second pairing) cost $4-6 million RIGHT NOW. If the cap rises to $100 million, these players will be getting $7-8 million on average.

This is why these retirement contracts are a problem.

But it's not a problem.

At that point, you literally only have one year of the above happening before Kopitar's contract falls off.

If you want to pretend there are teams that aren't committing that now, let's go ahead and look at some contenders:

Burns 33 (8), Vlasic 31 (7), Kane 27 (7), Couture 29 (8) through beyond 2025.

TO: Tavares and Matthews at 11 and 11.5, Nylander at 7, lucky to have Reilly at 5 because the rest of their D is in shambles incoming RFAs-- Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen.

TBL: Stamkos 29 at 8.5, Kucherov 25(!) at 9.5, Hedman (28) at 7.8, McDonagh (29) at 6.7. They've done the best with it, imo. They also, though, have Point as an RFA this year, and half their D is UFAs.

NSH: RyJo 26 at 8, PK 29 at 9, and a bunch of guys at 6-7 with Josi going UFA soon.

This idea that the Kings are the only team with cap and age trouble is a farce, but the idea that they are handicapping themselves with it somehow has no basis in reality.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Did you just ignore my comment? I am asking what new center/defenseman/goalie is going to be receiving 10 million each from us? Where are we going to find them? Because if they are not currently on our team they will be on an ELC when the year we are talking about, unless we sign 3 UFA's, which I don't think is the wisest decision.

More concise than I said it, thank you

More to the point, I don't see a scenario in which that's actually a problem. Like, oh no, we drafted 3-4 more superstars? Whatever will we do?

This all just reeks of people want an excuse to be mad at the vets when they don't need one. Kopitar and Drew have been shit this year, just say that, don't invent a mythical unicorn land where they're destroying us in 2023 because we suddenly became smart enough to be the best-drafting team in NHL history yet simultaneously not smart enough to manage it.

 

[BigKing]

Just want to interject with some ticket pricing news as I just received my renewal e-mail. An interesting tidbit could be taken as a sign they are planning on being bad next year as well. Away we go:

- Renew by March 29th and ticket price will be frozen at this year's rate. (I do not remember the last time there was not an increase...maybe first season post-lockout or one of the Lombardi tank years)

--Renew by March 29th and choose auto-renewal moving forward leads to your price being frozen at this year's pricing for next season AND the season after.

They are offering the chance to keep the current pricing for two seasons if you choose to auto-renew moving forward. Pretty sure this is something you can opt-out of prior to it actually renewing for the 2021 season. For a soft commitment to 2021, they will go ahead and keep you at the same price for two seasons in a row.

Could be pretty telling in regards to where they see the team next season. Granted, I'm sure there are major concerns about losing STH'ers because, well, they definitely will. Still, this hasn't been an organization looking to pass-up an opportunity to raise prices if they can, something they would be able to do if the Kings are in a playoff spot (hold for laughter) at the time the renewal packages go out next season.

Anyways, something to chew on. I'll always keep my Die-Hard seats and I'm actually not dying on resale since I'm passing on more games than I ever have so a two-year freeze is enticing. I figure it can't be worse than this year since there will hopefully be some prospects to watch develop and, if lucky, some stud from this draft.

 

[DoktorJeep]

I don't understand your point. You are building up a scenario where we have 30 additional million tied up in 3 hypothetical players in order to point out how desperate the cap crunch will be in 3 years. I want to know where you think those 3 super star players will come from.

I think between draft, trade and free agency, opportunities exist to fill those holes every year. To better position yourself to take advantage of those opportunities is a message sent by getting bad assets off the books, even at the cost of short term devaluation.

What’s the alternative, maintain what is at best hope mediocrity at the cost of flexibility?

You can't say that definitively. Sundin was scoring 70 points through the end of his career. Thornton is still scoring at a 53 point pace with a bum knee. etc.

Even if we do what we did previously--apply the typical scoring trajectory by age to Kopitar's production--we found that he'd be, at worst, a 50-60 point player in his late 30s. And that's without accounting for the fact that top-10 scorers don't often have that same cliff, nor the same responsibilities as Kopitar.

I don't understand why everyone is so eager to pass off the possible doomsday scenario as proven fact.





This would be the fair way to question him, I think.




See above.




But it's not a problem.

At that point, you literally only have one year of the above happening before Kopitar's contract falls off.

If you want to pretend there are teams that aren't committing that now, let's go ahead and look at some contenders:

Burns 33 (8), Vlasic 31 (7), Kane 27 (7), Couture 29 (8) through beyond 2025.

TO: Tavares and Matthews at 11 and 11.5, Nylander at 7, lucky to have Reilly at 5 because the rest of their D is in shambles incoming RFAs-- Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen.

TBL: Stamkos 29 at 8.5, Kucherov 25(!) at 9.5, Hedman (28) at 7.8, McDonagh (29) at 6.7. They've done the best with it, imo. They also, though, have Point as an RFA this year, and half their D is UFAs.

NSH: RyJo 26 at 8, PK 29 at 9, and a bunch of guys at 6-7 with Josi going UFA soon.

This idea that the Kings are the only team with cap and age trouble is a farce, but the idea that they are handicapping themselves with it somehow has no basis in reality.

Something does not compute. All those teams are cup contenders today, while the Kings are the opposite, yet they have the same cap construction?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Something does not compute. All those teams are cup contenders today, while the Kings are the opposite, yet they have the same cap construction?

Because people easily pull examples of teams struggling with that structure--i.e. Kings, Chicago--and point to them as screwups, using that to argue it's going to kill us even as late as 2022-2023, while I'm showing examples of teams competitive with similar structures. It's not that weird to have 3-4 players taking up 30% of your cap. Maybe it's 'bad,' but it's not "only Kings/Chicago are bad and the Kings will be screwed 4 years down the road because of x contract."

 

[DoktorJeep]

Because people easily pull examples of teams struggling with that structure--i.e. Kings, Chicago--and point to them as screwups, using that to argue it's going to kill us even as late as 2022-2023, while I'm showing examples of teams competitive with similar structures. It's not that weird to have 3-4 players taking up 30% of your cap. Maybe it's 'bad,' but it's not "only Kings/Chicago are bad and the Kings will be screwed 4 years down the road because of x contract."

Recently, Detroit and the Rangers are better examples of teams like the Kings who have big cap hits and few wins.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Did you just ignore my comment? I am asking what new center/defenseman/goalie is going to be receiving 10 million each from us? Where are we going to find them? Because if they are not currently on our team they will be on an ELC when the year we are talking about, unless we sign 3 UFA's, which I don't think is the wisest decision.

If we draft Hughes or Kakko and they produce as they are projected to, we will be looking at giving one of them a $10 million+ contract starting in 22/23.

Hypothetically, if Kupari steps in and produces 30-35-65 by 21/22, he will be looking at $8 million+ contract in 22/23.

Let’s go wild and say we hit the jackpot, draft Hughes, and Vilardi and Kupari both turn into legit star forwards. You’re looking at $30 million combined between the three of them starting in 22/23.

That would be a lot easier to manage if we actually had an abundant amount of cap space in 22/23.

People used to crap on Lombardi and make jokes about Cap Space being our most valuable player in 2009 and 2010. Turns out, he played it perfectly, reserving as much as possible so we could actually add major pieces like Richards and Carter in 2012.

 

[deaderhead28]

Do we need two threads about the same thing?

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

If we draft Hughes or Kakko and they produce as they are projected to, we will be looking at giving one of them a $10 million+ contract starting in 22/23.

Hypothetically, if Kupari steps in and produces 30-35-65 by 21/22, he will be looking at $8 million+ contract in 22/23.

Let’s go wild and say we hit the jackpot, draft Hughes, and Vilardi and Kupari both turn into legit star forwards. You’re looking at $30 million combined between the three of them starting in 22/23.

That would be a lot easier to manage if we actually had an abundant amount of cap space in 22/23.

People used to crap on Lombardi and make jokes about Cap Space being our most valuable player in 2009 and 2010. Turns out, he played it perfectly, reserving as much as possible so we could actually add major pieces like Richards and Carter in 2012.

And let's take that assumption further, and and in 22/23 Kopitar has ONE MORE YEAR LEFT,

What exactly is the issue?

 

[crassbonanza]

If we draft Hughes or Kakko and they produce as they are projected to, we will be looking at giving one of them a $10 million+ contract starting in 22/23.

Hypothetically, if Kupari steps in and produces 30-35-65 by 21/22, he will be looking at $8 million+ contract in 22/23.

Let’s go wild and say we hit the jackpot, draft Hughes, and Vilardi and Kupari both turn into legit star forwards. You’re looking at $30 million combined between the three of them starting in 22/23.

That would be a lot easier to manage if we actually had an abundant amount of cap space in 22/23.

People used to crap on Lombardi and make jokes about Cap Space being our most valuable player in 2009 and 2010. Turns out, he played it perfectly, reserving as much as possible so we could actually add major pieces like Richards and Carter in 2012.

Those are dream scenarios for the franchise. If Kopitar is playing that bad and we need cap space, he can easily be offloaded because there will only be one year remaining on his contract. I sincerely hope that we are in the tough situation of having to move the final year of Kopitar's contract because we have 3 superstar players coming off of an ELC.

 

[deaderhead28]

Just wanted add,we also dont know if the cap will be higher or what the new bargaining agreement rules will be by the time these hypothetical contracts are up.We dont even know who will be on the roster after the expansion draft is over.

 

[deaderhead28]

Another Warning That A 2019 Recession Is Coming

Everyone has a opinion.I let the market decide.These so called experts were wrong in 2016.

 

[kovacro]

Who really knows how things are going to look 5 years from now.

Kings could draft Kakko or Hughes and they bust or are mediocre, at best. What if the Kings finish outside of the top 2, then you are getting someone else, how will they pan out? Kupari could be a middling 3rd line player. Vilardi may never play for the Kings.

What if there is a one time penalty free buyout allowed in the next CBA? Kopitar gets bought of his fat contract. Then Doughty and Quick are the only veterans on the books at that time which adds up to about $16 million against the cap. Who knows what the cap number is going to be by then. There is talk of the cap being between $84-85 million for the 2019/20 season, is it fair to project each year after next going up by roughly $5 million? By 2022/23 we could be looking at a cap of around $100 million.

2022/23 would be Quick’s last season on his deal. That’s not a bad contract to buy out in the last season with a cap penalty. Maybe you deal him somewhere like Quebec (that’s where Ottawa is going to end up ) and add a pick, depending on how good the Kings are at that point.

Then all your left with as a veteran on a hefty deal is Drew.

We could speculate all we want, there are so many variables. I think you have to look at both ends of the spectrum. There is the scenario where all the young kids turn out great and the vets (DD, AK, JQ) are all here and the scenario where the kids are very average, or one, maybe two don’t pan out and one or two vets are gone.

It’s probably going to be somewhere in the middle.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

And let's take that assumption further, and and in 22/23 Kopitar has ONE MORE YEAR LEFT,

What exactly is the issue?

The issue is that - as we’ve seen - Cup windows are fragile and short, and Cup winners are usually blessed with being in the right place at the right time. Giant contracts on aging stars prohibit a team’s ability to make critical moves in preparation for a run.

Unless you’re just willing to admit here and now that the Kings will not contend for the duration of Kopitar’s contract? Because I will gladly concede that point.