Rumor: KINGS 2018-19 Season- Luc/Rob ****Show/ Sell Everyone!! Part 3

[SettlementRichie10]

Who really knows how things are going to look 5 years from now.

Kings could draft Kakko or Hughes and they bust or are mediocre, at best. What if the Kings finish outside of the top 2, then you are getting someone else, how will they pan out? Kupari could be a middling 3rd line player. Vilardi may never play for the Kings.

What if there is a one time penalty free buyout allowed in the next CBA? Kopitar gets bought of his fat contract. Then Doughty and Quick are the only veterans on the books at that time which adds up to about $16 million against the cap. Who knows what the cap number is going to be by then. There is talk of the cap being between $84-85 million for the 2019/20 season, is it fair to project each year after next going up by roughly $5 million? By 2022/23 we could be looking at a cap of around $100 million.

2022/23 would be Quick’s last season on his deal. That’s not a bad contract to buy out in the last season with a cap penalty. Maybe you deal him somewhere like Quebec (that’s where Ottawa is going to end up ) and add a pick, depending on how good the Kings are at that point.

Then all your left with as a veteran on a hefty deal is Drew.

We could speculate all we want, there are so many variables. I think you have to look at both ends of the spectrum. There is the scenario where all the young kids turn out great and the vets (DD, AK, JQ) are all here and the scenario where the kids are very average, or one, maybe two don’t pan out and one or two vets are gone.

It’s probably going to be somewhere in the middle.

In other words, no matter how you cut it, the Kings are not contending for the duration of Kopitar’s contract.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

The issue is that - as we’ve seen - Cup windows are fragile and short, and Cup winners are usually blessed with being in the right place at the right time. Giant contracts on aging stars prohibit a team’s ability to make critical moves in preparation for a run.

Unless you’re just willing to admit here and now that the Kings will not contend for the duration of Kopitar’s contract? Because I will gladly concede that point.

No idea, and again, EVEN if they don't, or hell even if they do,

WHAT EXACTLY is the problem?

We are talking 2020-2021, 2021-2022,

Let's make assumptions, Vilardi is healthy, Kupari makes the team, and they draft a franchise player

In 2020-2021, Gone is Toffoli, Lewis, Clifford, Forbort, LaDue, Campbell. (OMG who do we replace them with,

Vilardi, Kupari, whoever we draft, Walker, Roy, Clague, ALL of them will be on ELCs having to resign for 2021-2022

In 2021-2022 gone are Kovalchuk, Phaneuf, Martinez, but we have to resign Wagner, Luff, Walker, Vilardi, Kupari, JAD, Clague,

Out of those signings, Kupari and Vilardi are the ONLY ones in danger of making 5M +

In 2022-2023, gone are Brown, Carter, replaced by draft picks, or even Rempal, JAD etc,

Kopitar at 10M, is not a damn game breaker,

that's the point.

 

[kovacro]

In other words, no matter how you cut it, the Kings are not contending for the duration of Kopitar’s contract.

And his contract will not be a hindrance in 2022/23, if he’s still with the Kings regardless of them contending or not. He would be in the last year of his deal in 2023/24 anyhow. Buyout or trade with retention in the final year, again if he’s still here.

GBH, I would tend to agree with how you have summarized it in your post above.

 

[kingsfan28]

Recently, Detroit and the Rangers are better examples of teams like the Kings who have big cap hits and few wins.

Yeah, neither, aside from the Rangers in 2014 has been contenders. The Wings are close to capped out and haven't had a legit team in almost 10 years. They are the poster boys for a playoff blackhole team, just like the Wild.

 

[johnjm22]

10M just became the going rate for a 60 point winger.

At the rate salaries are increasing, Kopitar giving you 20 goals / 50 points per season for the duration of his contract would probably make it look like a deal at some point.

There's going to be another NHL team soon which should also increase revenues further.

Of course there will another recession, and statistically speaking it's likely coming soon. Hard to say how much impact it will have on league revenues. During the last recession league revenues were hardly affected. It's also possible to have high inflation during a recession which could keep cap numbers rising.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

No idea, and again, EVEN if they don't, or hell even if they do,

WHAT EXACTLY is the problem?

We are talking 2020-2021, 2021-2022,

Let's make assumptions, Vilardi is healthy, Kupari makes the team, and they draft a franchise player

In 2020-2021, Gone is Toffoli, Lewis, Clifford, Forbort, LaDue, Campbell. (OMG who do we replace them with,

Vilardi, Kupari, whoever we draft, Walker, Roy, Clague, ALL of them will be on ELCs having to resign for 2021-2022

In 2021-2022 gone are Kovalchuk, Phaneuf, Martinez, but we have to resign Wagner, Luff, Walker, Vilardi, Kupari, JAD, Clague,

Out of those signings, Kupari and Vilardi are the ONLY ones in danger of making 5M +

In 2022-2023, gone are Brown, Carter, replaced by draft picks, or even Rempal, JAD etc,

Kopitar at 10M, is not a damn game breaker,

that's the point.

Then again, I ask you to produce a single example of a Cup winning team with a 35 year or older player taking up 10-15% of their cap.

Hint: you can’t, because there are none.

In what world is a non-impact player taking up that much cap “not a game breaker”?

 

[kingsfan28]

Eh, that's one opinion, there are many people saying the opposite, that we may see slowed growth, but no down turn. Here is a more recent link GDP Report Points To Solid Economic Forecast For 2019

You'll never hear the "R" word under this administration, but I'm not sure how it's tied to the salary cap? Is it really directly tied to both the Canadian and US economy?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Then again, I ask you to produce a single example of a Cup winning team with a 35 year or older player taking up 10-15% of their cap.

Hint: you can’t, because there are none.

In what world is a non-impact player taking up that much cap “not a game breaker”?

Give me an example of teams that HAVE 35+ players taking up 10-15% of their Cap?

You're dealing with a ridiculously small sample size to make a point. We have what, 10 years of Cap era to draw from? And how many 10% plus contracts that have been seasoned? Keep in mind that someone like Keith would probably fit into this territory but at his age he signed his when it could be circumvented. I literally can't think of anyone but Kopitar and Toews that will possibly fit this category and they're still years off that.

But beyond that, you have to find a way to show me even one example of said player eating so much cap it's preventing a team from being competitive.

Edit: oh, you already posted the spoiler said situation doens't even exist yet period.

We've given you several examples of--let's not even call it a non-impact player, let's call it dead space period--how this dead space wouldn't even faze the 2023 Kings and why it's a whole lot of spilt milk. We're not competing for the next few years, so the cap space doesn't matter. Everyone will be cheap or RFA or gone. By the time it matters--Hughes/Kakko, Vilardi, Kupari, and Lafreniere all become superstars--we'd actually easily have enough cap to offer them max contracts anyway since Kopitar would be off the books the next year. It's much ado about nothing. Like I said before, be mad at Kopitar, Doughty etc. for their performances this year or just hate them irrationally and that's fine too but to be upset that they're actually clogging up the future of this roster somehow is just factually damn near impossible.

Imagine believing the Kings have the foresight and luck to turn 5 consecutive drafts into a bunch of superstars but not also the acumen to adjust the roster to accommodate them. Welp, guess someone is going to offer sheet Hughes, too bad we only get four more first round picks in return!

 

[deaderhead28]

 

[King'sPawn]

I'm more amused people are arguing Kopitar will be a non-impact player. Even though he's having one of his worst seasons, he's still outscoring the entire team.

Even if his production goes down, that's still a long ways from qualifying as non-impact.

 

[KINGS17]

Who cares if Kopitar leads the team in scoring. When a franchise is paying two players a combined $21M in cap hit they shouldn't be DFL almost the entire season.

Doughty and Kopitar's impact should be in the standings and in the playoffs, otherwise what is the point of their contracts.

Sorry, but people are moving the goalposts on the expected performance from Kopitar for his deal. It's gone from he will be Sundin-like to his cap hit won't be that bad for a 2C in a couple of years.

For those actually paying attention, they know the issue that was raised wasn't about Kopitar's numbers (which haven't been consistently good, and down right average or worse in 2 of the 3 seasons), it was about whether or not the Kings would contend while he was still capable of being a factor in the team being contenders.

That question remains unanswered I suppose, but it's not looking good right now.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Who cares if Kopitar leads the team in scoring. When a franchise is paying two players a combined $21M in cap hit they shouldn't be DFL almost the entire season.

Doughty and Kopitar's impact should be in the standings and in the playoffs, otherwise what is the point of their contracts.

Sorry, but people are moving the goalposts on the expected performance from Kopitar for his deal. It's gone from he will be Sundin-like to his cap hit won't be that bad for a 2C in a couple of years.

For those actually paying attention, they know the issue that was raised wasn't about Kopitar's numbers (which haven't been consistently good, and down right average or worse in 2 of the 3 seasons), it was about whether or not the Kings would contend while he was still capable of being a factor in the team being contenders.

That question remains unanswered I suppose, but it's not looking good right now.

The only people that I know of that used expressions like moved the goal post, are in capable of understanding how discussions and debates evolve with different viewpoints.

As far as your actual points, I agree, they shouldn't be DFL, which technically they aren't, but point conceded, but you have MULTIPLE TEAMS that are like that, Edmonton, Anaheim, Dallas, Chicago, Philadelphia, etc all to a varying degree of high cap hits, no results,

Guess what, it's sport, it happens, you certainly weren't bitching about it last year when Kopitar was lighting it up, now the entire team sucks, and he's the focal point,

Does he have to be better, absolutely, no one is denying that, you are having that argument in your head.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

Then again, I ask you to produce a single example of a Cup winning team with a 35 year or older player taking up 10-15% of their cap.

Hint: you can’t, because there are none.

In what world is a non-impact player taking up that much cap “not a game breaker”?

Morning. I tend to go for more often than not instead of one example so I agree with your overall premise and the argument could be made is because he was shipped at the deadline with an expiring contract and it was a bitter sweet that he couldn't do it with Boston. The only one example I can think of is Ray Borque with the Avs. He won the cup in 2001, was 40 years old. Cap hit was 5.5 million and the total cap was 39 million which is 14%.

He averaged 26 minutes of ice time in the Finals as a D Man. 3 points in the series but significant piece of that puzzle.

Overall playoff stats for 2001 to include one game winner.

I think it should be reframed to what is more often than not for 35 year old players but they do occasionally exist and maybe that's the gamble. Borque was a warrior and everyone knew it.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%	FO%
2000-2001	COL	21	4	6	10	9	12	3	8	0	0	1	0	49	8.2	100

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ray Bourque Stats and News

2001 NHL Stanley Cup Stanley Cup Final: COL vs. NJD | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Who cares if Kopitar leads the team in scoring. When a franchise is paying two players a combined $21M in cap hit they shouldn't be DFL almost the entire season.

Doughty and Kopitar's impact should be in the standings and in the playoffs, otherwise what is the point of their contracts.

Sorry, but people are moving the goalposts on the expected performance from Kopitar for his deal. It's gone from he will be Sundin-like to his cap hit won't be that bad for a 2C in a couple of years.

For those actually paying attention, they know the issue that was raised wasn't about Kopitar's numbers (which haven't been consistently good, and down right average or worse in 2 of the 3 seasons), it was about whether or not the Kings would contend while he was still capable of being a factor in the team being contenders.

That question remains unanswered I suppose, but it's not looking good right now.

I totally agree with your boldfaced.

But we're not moving the goalposts on expectations. I don't expect Kopitar to be this dead. You've seen me seething over him the last few games. My only point is even the 'doomsday' scenario for Kopitar doesn't hamstring this roster in the manner some are suggesting it is. If anything, the goalposts have moved from "we're not competitive in 2019 because of Kopitar's (and Doughty's and Quick's and Carter's) contracts preventing us from doing anything" to worrying about 4-5 years from now as if we have to worry about an expensive roster through a rebuild.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

Yeah, neither, aside from the Rangers in 2014 has been contenders. The Wings are close to capped out and haven't had a legit team in almost 10 years. They are the poster boys for a playoff blackhole team, just like the Wild.

I agree with you but I don't really count the Rangers. That playoff series was an afternoon skate with a few snow piles compared to Chicago or NJ 2 years before. Not to toot LAs horn too much but that team was almost unstoppable and Rangers mode of operation to get into the finals was to have Kreider run Price so he couldn't finish the series. Price was out Game 1 and was just coming off the Gold Medal at Sochi and was on fire. Really should have been Montreal in that Finals.

Habs goalie Carey Price out for conference final, at least | CBC Sports

So I follow Captain Canada on YT and I thought this was an interesting compilation of Kreider running the goalie. If you watch YT hockey fights, best moments, look this guy up. Whoever he is, he has an appreciation for the history of the game. The hit on Price is included in this vid along with the other goalies he ran over. He basically has a quick foot and charges in and waits for D Man contact to slide into a goalie but this guy has hurt more goalies than any other player that I can remember.

 

[The Tikkanen]

I'm more amused people are arguing Kopitar will be a non-impact player. Even though he's having one of his worst seasons, he's still outscoring the entire team.

Even if his production goes down, that's still a long ways from qualifying as non-impact.

Kopitar with a different coach and a different system will produce. The standing around version looking for a cutting winger with mediocre hands like Iafallo and Brown is almost finally dead. Kopitar attacking the defense, entering the zone with the puck on his stick will rebound. Kopitar could potentially be centering Kovalchuk and Panarin next season. Add in a new coach and a non stone age system and I may be able to stay awake past the halfway mark of the 1st period.

 

[KINGS17]

I totally agree with your boldfaced.

But we're not moving the goalposts on expectations. I don't expect Kopitar to be this dead. You've seen me seething over him the last few games. My only point is even the 'doomsday' scenario for Kopitar doesn't hamstring this roster in the manner some are suggesting it is. If anything, the goalposts have moved from "we're not competitive in 2019 because of Kopitar's (and Doughty's and Quick's and Carter's) contracts preventing us from doing anything" to worrying about 4-5 years from now as if we have to worry about an expensive roster through a rebuild.

I think the Kings best chance now is to draft a generational talent as a 1C, hope that player has a huge impact in the next two seasons, then hope the match ups for Kopitar being at the 2C position are much more favorable for him.

Sadly, Blake won't be getting much if anything in return for Carter, which had he been moved two years ago would have garnered assets that would have helped greatly even now or the very near future. Hopefully, something can be done with Quick, Martinez and Lewis to acquire assets that will fit the Kings demographic better going forward. I don't mention Brown or Clifford, because I don't think they are going to be moved.

Blake still has a ton of work to do in rebuilding a defense around Doughty, but at least it looks like he has a good start in goal with Petersen. The odds of the Kings rebuilding in time to get any benefit from the Kopitar deal are getting pretty long.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Give me an example of teams that HAVE 35+ players taking up 10-15% of their Cap?

You're dealing with a ridiculously small sample size to make a point. We have what, 10 years of Cap era to draw from? And how many 10% plus contracts that have been seasoned? Keep in mind that someone like Keith would probably fit into this territory but at his age he signed his when it could be circumvented. I literally can't think of anyone but Kopitar and Toews that will possibly fit this category and they're still years off that.

But beyond that, you have to find a way to show me even one example of said player eating so much cap it's preventing a team from being competitive.

Edit: oh, you already posted the spoiler said situation doens't even exist yet period.

We've given you several examples of--let's not even call it a non-impact player, let's call it dead space period--how this dead space wouldn't even faze the 2023 Kings and why it's a whole lot of spilt milk. We're not competing for the next few years, so the cap space doesn't matter. Everyone will be cheap or RFA or gone. By the time it matters--Hughes/Kakko, Vilardi, Kupari, and Lafreniere all become superstars--we'd actually easily have enough cap to offer them max contracts anyway since Kopitar would be off the books the next year. It's much ado about nothing. Like I said before, be mad at Kopitar, Doughty etc. for their performances this year or just hate them irrationally and that's fine too but to be upset that they're actually clogging up the future of this roster somehow is just factually damn near impossible.

Imagine believing the Kings have the foresight and luck to turn 5 consecutive drafts into a bunch of superstars but not also the acumen to adjust the roster to accommodate them. Welp, guess someone is going to offer sheet Hughes, too bad we only get four more first round picks in return!

Your cavalier attitude is really shocking to me here, RJ. I don’t know whether or not it’s just your audible position to defend the Kings, or you can’t see past your love for Kopitar.

It’s not about offer sheets. It’s about having the cap flexibility to add critical final pieces via trade or free agency.

Add a 35 year or 36 year old player to the Kings roster in 2012 with a cap hit of $7 million or more. Are we able to trade for Carter and still retain our depth? No, we’re not.

If Keith and Hossa have $9-10 million cap hits in 2013 and 2015, that would have significantly affected the Hawks cap structure and ability to contend.

Pleading sample size is clutching at straws. The cap era is 14 years old. Do you think the Capitals will still be contending at the end of Ovechkin’s contract? Very likely not. And he’s a significantly better player than Kopitar on a slightly better contract.

We have zero historical support of a 35 year old+ player on a massive contract winning a championship. You can’t just hand wave this away. And when Kopitar is CBOed in the summer of 2022, that’ll be all the proof we need.

 

[KINGS17]

Kopitar with a different coach and a different system will produce. The standing around version looking for a cutting winger with mediocre hands like Iafallo and Brown is almost finally dead. Kopitar attacking the defense, entering the zone with the puck on his stick will rebound. Kopitar could potentially be centering Kovalchuk and Panarin next season. Add in a new coach and a non stone age system and I may be able to stay awake past the halfway mark of the 1st period.

You really think Panarin is coming to LA? If he does do you really think signing a 28-year old winger to a huge contract is going to make the Kings contenders again? He is surrounded by better talent in Columbus, even more so now, and I doubt they go that far in the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, I will be rooting for Columbus, because it's great for teams who have never experienced success to get some. I think they made the wrong moves though because any success will be very short lived.

I will remind you Kopitar had his most productive season offensively centering Brown and Iafallo, because it forced him to be aggressive. As soon as Kovalchuk showed up what did Kopitar do? He was less aggressive and was constantly looking to defer to Kovalchuk. Kopitar's MO isn't going to change.

It's not the coach, or the system, or his wingers who are a drag on Kopitar. No, it's Kopitar himself.

 

[The Tikkanen]

You really think Panarin is coming to LA? If he does do you really think signing a 28-year old winger to a huge contract is going to make the Kings contenders again? He is surrounded by better talent in Columbus, even more so now, and I doubt they go that far in the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, I will be rooting for Columbus, because it's great for teams who have never experienced success to get some. I think they made the wrong moves though because any success will be very short lived.

I will remind you Kopitar had his most productive season offensively centering Brown and Iafallo, because it forced him to be aggressive. As soon as Kovalchuk showed up what did Kopitar do? He was less aggressive and was constantly looking to defer to Kovalchuk. Kopitar's MO isn't going to change.

It's not the coach, or the system, or his wingers who are a drag on Kopitar. No, it's Kopitar himself.

No, I'm a long time King fan so hoping a top feee agent signs here is insanity. The possibility is there. Maybe he wants to live in Beverly Hills too? The Kings could have Panarin and Hughes in the lineup game 1 next season, that's all I'm saying. When the lottery balls are bouncing around I fully expect the Kings to get the 4th over all pick.

 

[KINGS17]

No, I'm a long time King fan so hoping a top feee agent signs here is insanity. The possibility is there. Maybe he wants to live in Beverly Hills too? The Kings could have Panarin and Hughes in the lineup game 1 next season, that's all I'm saying. When the lottery balls are bouncing around I fully expect the Kings to get the 4th over all pick.

Fair enough.

 

[The Tikkanen]

Fair enough.

I see the same player in Kopitar. Blake has it real tough. He's the first Kings GM who inherits a team and a fan base who expect to contend. How do you motivate these guys to play? What kind of coach will they actually listen to and play for? Then you think about deducting from the roster and it's full of guys who get paid a ton, aren't producing and nobody else wants. Would this locker room even listen to Sheldon Keefe? Will they listen to anybody that doesn't have Cups? Will they listen to any coach that is younger than them? Blake is gonna need to find a diamond in the rough.

 

[AzKing]

You really think Panarin is coming to LA? If he does do you really think signing a 28-year old winger to a huge contract is going to make the Kings contenders again? He is surrounded by better talent in Columbus, even more so now, and I doubt they go that far in the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, I will be rooting for Columbus, because it's great for teams who have never experienced success to get some. I think they made the wrong moves though because any success will be very short lived.

I will remind you Kopitar had his most productive season offensively centering Brown and Iafallo, because it forced him to be aggressive. As soon as Kovalchuk showed up what did Kopitar do? He was less aggressive and was constantly looking to defer to Kovalchuk. Kopitar's MO isn't going to change.

It's not the coach, or the system, or his wingers who are a drag on Kopitar. No, it's Kopitar himself.

I don't see Blake paying for Panarin.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Kopitar's cap hit only matters if the Kings are good. If they're going to be like this season, then it doesn't matter in any way. Let him collect the paycheck in peace. All the other hits don't matter in the same scenario either. Kupari's contract hasn't started yet. If he's going to be a RFA only in 2022, every hit except Kopitar, Doughty, and Quick will be gone by then. Same with Vilardi. Most certainly the same with whoever it is they end up with in this draft. Even if it's Hughes or Kakko, and they play right away next year.

 

[funky]

I'm more amused people are arguing Kopitar will be a non-impact player. Even though he's having one of his worst seasons, he's still outscoring the entire team.

Even if his production goes down, that's still a long ways from qualifying as non-impact.

Interesting point. Considering this team doesn’t have a second line and opponents can concentrate on shutting Kopitar and his two point per game wingers. Wait a second. He doesn’t even have that. My problem with Kopitar is consistency one and being overused two. He is not your guy to run a PP but either is Doughty. What he does bring is a big body center that has excelled defensively over his career and led his team in scoring by a large margin every year other than one while matching up against the other big C’s in the West as well as the other teams best checkers.

I am willing to give the guy a better supporting cast, a real coach and possibly someone other than Doughty running the PP before I throw him under a bus.