I'm not defending them or loving Kopitar here, it's just a matter of fact--the only money we have committed to the seasons you're concerned about are literally only Kopitar for one year and Doughty.
If you want to suggest that in 2022 we've done enough to worry about adding the final pieces to pursue for the Cup, then that's giving the org a TON MORE credit than I'm giving them, thus you also have to give them enough credit that they'd be able to wiggle out of a bad scenario, too. You can't have it both ways--build a superstar roster in 3-4 years then they're all on RFA/ELCs anyway and thus Kopitar's contract isn't a concern. We'd have a harder time hitting the floor in those years.
Keith and Hossa are my prime examples that sample size for this discussion is an issue, that we have no examples of a 35+ player on a huge contract getting in the way of competitiveness because none are seasoned enough to be an issue yet. Those guys SHOULD have monster deals but they were still from the circumvention era. Kopitar will be literally the first. I mean I guess I could go back and count contracts per year that were 10% plus of the cap and see if there's any 35 year olds in there but you're the one that made that claim in the first place, so burden of proof there is on you.
So yes, until you can show me otherwise, the reason we have zero historical support of a 35 year old player on a massive contract winning a championship is because we have yet to have such a player on such a deal to speak of in the first place. 0 = 0.
We don’t have any 35+ year players taking up 10% of the cap because the Kopitar deal is that uniquely awful. That’s the point. No 35 year old in the entire 14 year cap era has warranted a cap hit that big, much less contended for a championship. You’re asking me to prove a negative by listing these players. There are none. That’s my entire point.
I’ve said several times in this thread the Kings will not contend for the duration of Kopitar’s contract, so you’ll hear no argument from me there.
I’m frustrated with our conversation for this precise reason:
Even if everything goes right, and the Kings formulate a new core entering their primes by 22/23, they still won’t be able to contend. Why? Because Kopitar and Doughty’s contracts will be that much of a cap albatross.
In 2012, the cap was $64.3 million. Kopitar, Doughty, and Carter combined for $19 million, or 29.5% of our available cap.
Between 2012 and 2019, the cap has grown by an average of $1.9 million every year. Using this average, the cap will only be at $87.1 million in 22/23.
So using this model, in 22/23 Kopitar and Doughty alone will make $21 million, or 24% of our available cap.
2012. Three core players. In their prime. 29.5% of our cap.
2023. Two players. Past their prime. 24% of our cap.
That’s the problem. If you want to punt and say the Kings won’t be contending until 24/25 anyway, and none of this matters, be my guest. I actually agree with you (though for different reasons).
But it’s frustrating to know that even if the stars align, and the Kings put together a contending core, that contending core will be hamstrung by these deals until 24/25.
I can’t put it any more plainly than that. Maybe Kopitar remains a productive player long into his 30s like Sundin, and none of this matters. Maybe Doughty puts together his career season at 31 or 32, similar to Kopitar, and none of this matters. That could all very well happen, and I’ll happily eat crow.
But as I see it now, we’re stuck with two bogus contracts on two - to be frank - unmotivated players, one of which is under the delusion that “yeah, I’m minus-22, but I’m still playing good hockey,” and the other who by all accounts appears utterly lost as a captain both on and off the ice.
So perhaps I’m being too harsh in my criticism of Kopitar and Doughty’s contracts because I’m just that disappointed in the players they’ve become. If that’s the case, so be it.
