Rumor: KINGS 2018-19 Season- Luc/Rob ****Show/ Sell Everyone!! Part 3

[crassbonanza]

It’s not so much the AAV as much as it is the term relative to the AAV. Again, in no universe does a $10 million cap hit on a 35 or 36 year old make sense.

The Kings will not be contending for the duration of Kopitar’s contract. From the beginning, I’ve invited anyone to offer a compelling argument to the contrary. Still waiting on that.

You have yet to provide a compelling argument as to why Kopitar's contract is the reason that the team will not be competitive. Instead coming up with theories of the economy collapsing, leading to the cap decreasing in order to prove your point.

 

[KINGS17]

A lot of you are still missing the point regarding the Kopitar contract. The Kings are not contenders with Kopitar, and his contract especially the term is not good for the organization.

The real problem with his contract is the opportunity cost. The Kings could have chosen the alternative of trading him and been much better off for it at this point in time.

It's the same problem now with not moving Carter a couple of seasons ago, it is an opportunity lost. Those things add up and will only increase the amount of time it takes to get back into contention.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

A lot of you are still missing the point regarding the Kopitar contract. The Kings are not contenders with Kopitar, and his contract especially the term is a not good for the organization.

The real problem with his contract is the opportunity cost. The Kings could have chosen the alternative of trading him and been much better off for it at this point in time.

Absolute bullshit. You have no idea, the only thing you could possibly know for sure, is they wouldn't have a 10 million dollar cap hit. You have absolutely no knowledge of what they could have gotten for a trade, or if they had panned out,

Opportunity cost my ass, absolutely f***ing amazing how little people realize about professional sports. There isn't a single GM that has EVER been employed, employed now or WILL BE employed in the league, that would EVER trade their #1 C, top 5 in the league in position, when they are 28 f***ing years old, without any reason. Hell TAVARES wasn't traded and he was absolutely walking.....

This hindsight bullshit is just that...bullshit, without any understanding of professional sport.

 

[KINGS17]

I don't care what other GMs would or would not do, I care about what the Kings should have done.

Once again, it isn't hindsight if you recommend a course of action prior to the event, showing you understand a situation prior to it happening. Carter should have been traded. Anyone want to dispute that now? Kings aren't going to contend during the Kopitar contract term. Anyone want to make book against that one?

fore·sight
/ˈfôrˌsīt/

noun

1. the ability to predict or the action of predicting what will happen or be needed in the future.

hind·sight
/ˈhīn(d)ˌsīt/

noun

1. understanding of a situation or event only after it has happened or developed.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Kings aren't going to contend during the Kopitar contract term. Anyone want to make book against that one?

Tell me why, is it Kopitar's play? His contract? Or is it others around him?



If you want to argue that it's others around him, I am sure most of us would jump on that and agree.....

 

[SettlementRichie10]

You have yet to provide a compelling argument as to why Kopitar's contract is the reason that the team will not be competitive. Instead coming up with theories of the economy collapsing, leading to the cap decreasing in order to prove your point.

Literally one page ago:

“In 2012, the cap was $64.3 million. Kopitar, Doughty, and Carter combined for $19 million, or 29.5% of our available cap.

Between 2012 and 2019, the cap has grown by an average of $1.9 million every year. Using this average, the cap will only be at $87.1 million in 22/23.

So using this model, in 22/23 Kopitar and Doughty alone will make $21 million, or 24% of our available cap.

2012. Three core players. In their prime. 29.5% of our cap.

2023. Two players. Past their prime. 24% of our cap.”

Nothing in there about the economy collapsing.

I look forward to bumping this thread in the summer of 2022 when the Kings CBO Kopitar.

 

[crassbonanza]

Literally one page ago:

“In 2012, the cap was $64.3 million. Kopitar, Doughty, and Carter combined for $19 million, or 29.5% of our available cap.

Between 2012 and 2019, the cap has grown by an average of $1.9 million every year. Using this average, the cap will only be at $87.1 million in 22/23.

So using this model, in 22/23 Kopitar and Doughty alone will make $21 million, or 24% of our available cap.

2012. Three core players. In their prime. 29.5% of our cap.

2023. Two players. Past their prime. 24% of our cap.”

Nothing in there about the economy collapsing.

I look forward to bumping this thread in the summer of 2022 when the Kings CBO Kopitar.

Well, it is nice that you can do some basic math, but that does not explain how Kopitar's contract is the sole reason the Kings won't be competing. Also, I'm going to slightly disagree with your projections ,between 2012 and 2019 the cap rose on average 3.2 million per season, so using those numbers instead we are looking at a salary cap of ~93 million during the '21 season. Beyond that, there is a new TV agreement coming up in 2020, which will lead to a significant spike and there is also the legal gambling revenue which should also help the salary cap rise. Even if none of those things happen and the salary cap does not increase, I still do not understand how Kopitar's contract is going to hamstring the Kings in 3 seasons.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Literally one page ago:

“In 2012, the cap was $64.3 million. Kopitar, Doughty, and Carter combined for $19 million, or 29.5% of our available cap.

Between 2012 and 2019, the cap has grown by an average of $1.9 million every year. Using this average, the cap will only be at $87.1 million in 22/23.

So using this model, in 22/23 Kopitar and Doughty alone will make $21 million, or 24% of our available cap.

2012. Three core players. In their prime. 29.5% of our cap.

2023. Two players. Past their prime. 24% of our cap.”

Nothing in there about the economy collapsing.

I look forward to bumping this thread in the summer of 2022 when the Kings CBO Kopitar.

So.....your argument is that 2 players in 2023, will take 24% of the cap that you don't know what the actual cap will be, and that they will BOTH be past their prime, despite Doughty being 33 years old.....

Good logic there....no seriously....keep up the good work,

BTW, what are the winning lottery numbers, in any given year, soon? I'd like to retire.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I don't care what other GMs would or would not do, I care about what the Kings should have done.

Once again, it isn't hindsight if you recommend a course of action prior to the event, showing you understand a situation prior to it happening. Carter should have been traded. Anyone want to dispute that now? Kings aren't going to contend during the Kopitar contract term. Anyone want to make book against that one?

fore·sight
/ˈfôrˌsīt/

noun

1. the ability to predict or the action of predicting what will happen or be needed in the future.

hind·sight
/ˈhīn(d)ˌsīt/

noun

1. understanding of a situation or event only after it has happened or developed.

Guess my other post was too much, anyways, I appreciate the fact that you keep admitting you don't know how pro sports works by saying you don't care what others do, but what the Kings SHOULD DO.

Unfortunately, in reality, pro sports works a helluva lot differently, than they do on that PS4, and no GM who wants to keep his job, is walking away from a top 5 C in the league, at 28 years old.

 

[deaderhead28]

Well, it is nice that you can do some basic math, but that does not explain how Kopitar's contract is the sole reason the Kings won't be competing. Also, I'm going to slightly disagree with your projections ,between 2012 and 2019 the cap rose on average 3.2 million per season, so using those numbers instead we are looking at a salary cap of ~93 million during the '21 season. Beyond that, there is a new TV agreement coming up in 2020, which will lead to a significant spike and there is also the legal gambling revenue which should also help the salary cap rise. Even if none of those things happen and the salary cap does not increase, I still do not understand how Kopitar's contract is going to hamstring the Kings in 3 seasons.

Add the fact another bargaining agreement is coming up and another franchise.

 

[KINGS17]

Why Kopitar's third contract with the Kings was ill-advised:

1. The Kings do not have the supporting cast to be a contender during the time where Kopitar should still be a good 1C. This is evident by the Kings being a black hole team last season, even with Doughty and Kopitar having career seasons.

2. You can never know for sure how a trade will turn out. I think we can be sure a deal involving Kopitar would have returned at least two NHL-caliber young players, plus a 1st round draft pick. Opportunity lost to start the work of building a contender.

3. The leadership void was obvious at the time Kopitar was signed, and it won't be replaced anytime soon.

4. The term of Kopitar's contract almost guarantees he will be at least 2 or 3 years from the end of it's term when his play will likely decline.

5. Kopitar gives inconsistent effort and performance from season to season.

It's odd some consider their opinion to be a fact.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Why Kopitar's third contract with the Kings was ill-advised:

1. The Kings do not have the supporting cast to be a contender during the time where Kopitar should still be a good 1C. This is evident by the Kings being a black hole team last season, even with Doughty and Kopitar having career seasons.

2. You can never know for sure how a trade will turn out. I think we can be sure a deal involving Kopitar would have returned at least two NHL-caliber young players, plus a 1st round draft pick. Opportunity lost to start the work of building a contender.

3. The leadership void was obvious at the time Kopitar was signed, and it won't be replaced anytime soon.

4. The term of Kopitar's contract almost guarantees he will be at least 2 or 3 years from the end of it's term when his play will likely decline.

5. Kopitar gives inconsistent effort and performance from season to season.

Yes, because we have seen those trades in the past......top 5 C in the league being traded as a UFA.....

Wait....hold on...I know it's been done.... wait....no surely it's been done....wait....it doesn't happen?

Because you said we can be sure of a deal for a UFA C, who.....according to you...resigning is a bad idea....should give 2 NHL young caliber forwards and a 1st pick....

Ok, perfect, show me the history of that please....in the cap era....where a top 5 C has been traded instead of resigned before the age of 30

 

[johnjm22]

Obviously factoring in a 1.9M cap increase every year as a projection doesn't make much sense because of inflation.

The average per year cap increase is 5.7%. That would put the cap at 98M in 22/23.

The Kings likely won't be contenders in 22/23 but it won't be because of Kopitar's contract.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It’s not so much the AAV as much as it is the term relative to the AAV. Again, in no universe does a $10 million cap hit on a 35 or 36 year old make sense.

The Kings will not be contending for the duration of Kopitar’s contract. From the beginning, I’ve invited anyone to offer a compelling argument to the contrary. Still waiting on that.

Don't hold your breath. It's because you're not presenting an argument. You're only presenting a non sequitur. Kopitar's contract is not why the Kings will not be competitive. You're taking it entirely out on him for no real reason other than being justifiably upset with his current performance and extrapolating his current performance to be who he is from here on out.

I don't see why people have such a hard time accepting this. HOW we get here is almost irrelevant, pretty much everyone on this board acknowledged we'd suck as soon as 2017 and that's the cost for the Cups. Even if anyone concedes 10 million on a 35 year old 'doesn't make sense,' it still doesn't mean it's a problem in any way. AEG has deep pockets, it's not preventing anything, etc...the only really legitimate point anyone has brought up is K17 talking about opportunity cost and there's a reasonable argument to be made on either side of that as well.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Why Kopitar's third contract with the Kings was ill-advised:

1. The Kings do not have the supporting cast to be a contender during the time where Kopitar should still be a good 1C. This is evident by the Kings being a black hole team last season, even with Doughty and Kopitar having career seasons.

2. You can never know for sure how a trade will turn out. I think we can be sure a deal involving Kopitar would have returned at least two NHL-caliber young players, plus a 1st round draft pick. Opportunity lost to start the work of building a contender.

3. The leadership void was obvious at the time Kopitar was signed, and it won't be replaced anytime soon.

4. The term of Kopitar's contract almost guarantees he will be at least 2 or 3 years from the end of it's term when his play will likely decline.

5. Kopitar gives inconsistent effort and performance from season to season.

It's odd some consider their opinion to be a fact.

So would you file the above as facts? 1. you have no way of stating definitively because 'past performance doesn't indicate future performance,' right? At least, I THOUGHT that came from you. 3. Is absolutely an opinion, even if most buy into it. No way of knowing as a fact. 4. No way of knowing as a fact, only degree of likelihood based on--you guessed it--other examples and past performance. 5. Effort is an intangible, performance is not. One of those is opinion.

Why Kopitar's third contract with the Kings was ill-advised in my opinion is totally understandable. Leaving that last part off? Nope. What you're saying is absolutely reasonable, yet you also have to understand why people will disagree.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Don't hold your breath. It's because you're not presenting an argument. You're only presenting a non sequitur. Kopitar's contract is not why the Kings will not be competitive. You're taking it entirely out on him for no real reason other than being justifiably upset with his current performance.

I don't see why people have such a hard time accepting this. HOW we get here is almost irrelevant, pretty much everyone on this board acknowledged we'd suck as soon as 2017 and that's the cost for the Cups. Even if anyone concedes 10 million on a 35 year old 'doesn't make sense,' it still doesn't mean it's a problem in any way. AEG has deep pockets, it's not preventing anything, etc...the only really legitimate point anyone has brought up is K17 talking about opportunity cost and there's a reasonable argument to be made on either side of that as well.

I'd agree with him, if he's been done at ANY TIME before.......(it hasn't) And while it's nice to sit there and say...but it should have.....all that does is prove you are good at ignoring the reality of professional sports....

I would love to be proven wrong and see a top 5 player traded as a UFA, under 30 in the cap era, and get 2 nhl caliber young players and a 1st round pick, maybe by the time I wake up he will have conceded that while it DOESN'T HAPPEN........it SHOULD happen.......which sure...and I SHOULD win the lottery, it doesn't happen either.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I'd agree with him, if he's been done at ANY TIME before.......(it hasn't) And while it's nice to sit there and say...but it should have.....all that does is prove you are good at ignoring the reality of professional sports....

I would love to be proven wrong and see a top 5 player traded as a UFA, under 30 in the cap era, and get 2 nhl caliber young players and a 1st round pick, maybe by the time I wake up he will have conceded that while it DOESN'T HAPPEN........it SHOULD happen.......which sure...and I SHOULD win the lottery, it doesn't happen either.

Right. I disagree with him there for various reasons, but it makes more sense than complaining about cap space in 2023.

 

[KINGS17]

So would you file the above as facts? 1. you have no way of stating definitively because 'past performance doesn't indicate future performance,' right? At least, I THOUGHT that came from you. 3. Is absolutely an opinion, even if most buy into it. No way of knowing as a fact. 4. No way of knowing as a fact, only degree of likelihood based on--you guessed it--other examples and past performance. 5. Effort is an intangible, performance is not. One of those is opinion.

Why Kopitar's third contract with the Kings was ill-advised in my opinion is totally understandable. Leaving that last part off? Nope. What you're saying is absolutely reasonable, yet you also have to understand why people will disagree.

No, the above is my opinion. I never said it was a fact. I wrote it, so it's my opinion. Who else's would it be?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

No, the above is my opinion. I never said it was a fact. I wrote it, so it's my opinion. Who else's would it be?

Well you passed some of them off as certainties/givens before dropping the ironic line at the end, so

 

[kovacro]

Obviously factoring in a 1.9M cap increase every year as a projection doesn't make much sense because of inflation.

The average per year cap increase is 5.7%. That would put the cap at 98M in 22/23.

The Kings likely won't be contenders in 22/23 but it won't be because of Kopitar's contract.

This. I mentioned it earlier, the cap will be close to $100 million by 2022/23.

Regardless of how Kopitar performs and his cap hit, he’s not going to be a burden. He will have 2 years left with a modified NTC. There will be options as to what you could potentially do with him IF you want to go a different route.

The cap is going to be between $84-$85 million next year according to those in the know. I don’t see a way come 2022/23 the cap is going to be just slightly north of $90 million, especially considering how it’s risen yearly per the number provided above by @johnjm22

 

[KINGS17]

Well you passed some of them off as certainties/givens before dropping the ironic line at the end, so

Give me a break. Do you say, "In your opinion" in every one of your posts. It's obvious those reasons are my opinion, because some of them are about my expectations for the future, and I even used the word "likely", so how can it be a fact.

There is only a single poster who claimed their opinion is fact in this recent exchange.

 

[crassbonanza]

Why Kopitar's third contract with the Kings was ill-advised:

1. The Kings do not have the supporting cast to be a contender during the time where Kopitar should still be a good 1C. This is evident by the Kings being a black hole team last season, even with Doughty and Kopitar having career seasons.

2. You can never know for sure how a trade will turn out. I think we can be sure a deal involving Kopitar would have returned at least two NHL-caliber young players, plus a 1st round draft pick. Opportunity lost to start the work of building a contender.

3. The leadership void was obvious at the time Kopitar was signed, and it won't be replaced anytime soon.

4. The term of Kopitar's contract almost guarantees he will be at least 2 or 3 years from the end of it's term when his play will likely decline.

5. Kopitar gives inconsistent effort and performance from season to season.

It's odd some consider their opinion to be a fact.

I completely understand your line of reasoning, even if I disagree with some of your points. The truth is at the time the Kopitar contract was coming up, the King's were just a season removed from the greatest stretch in franchise history and Kopitar was a 27 year old center who was widely considered top 5 in the league. It would have been very difficult to move Kopitar because you would be doing two things that would absolutely enrage the fanbase. First, you would be tossing aside a player who had done more for the franchise than nearly any player in franchise history. You also would be throwing in the towel and committing to a full rebuild, which may have been the right choice, but it would not have been viewed positively. Being a GM is all about risks, which is why you will almost never find a GM who is infallible. Deano rolled the dice that the talent was still on the team to compete for a cup and signed his number 1 center(I actually think if he had signed Kopitar, but not traded for Lucic we would be in a solid playoff position right now).

 

[kingsboy11]

Here are the facts. Only 3 players currently on this team will have a contract by the 2023-24 season, one of them being Quick who likely gets traded this offseason. So forgive me if I'm not bugging out on 2 guys making a combined 21 million and probably needing 70+million to fill out the roster by that time.

It feels like there are people here wanting the team to win the war before they've even started.

I'm just trying to get in the mindset. Do people think our best chance to win is when our young guys are on their ELCs or are we honestly doing a rebuild like most people want? Even if some people don't think Kopi will ever be a 70 point player again and isn't worth his contract, Kopi would be a good stop gap for the younger players until they are ready to finally push for the cup again.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

For the record, I’ve never said Kopitar’s contract would be the “sole reason” the Kings won’t be contenders in 22/23 and 23/24, but rather one of several.

And RJ, I mentioned K17’s opportunity cost pages ago. Hell, I was advocating for a Kopitar trade this past summer when his value was inflated due to the 17/18 campaign.

It’s clear at this point none of us are going to agree, and I’m tired of correcting misrepresentations. It’s going to be a long five years in Lalaland regardless.

Edit: Also, in pursuit of good faith, I should point out I didn’t mind the Kopitar contract when it was first signed in 15/16. In fact, K17 and I had several back and forths on the issue at the time. But soon after, especially post 16/17, I started to change my tune. I just don’t see the contract getting much prettier with age. Of course that’s an opinion, but it’s an opinion informed by all the available data we can actually apply here (cap structures of Cup champions, league wide age trends in production, etc.). Anyway, it is what it is. As always, I hope I’m wrong on these things for the sake of the team.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

After pages of Kopitar, see all the arguments and sides. Kopitar is still playing well, overall and as stated, leading the team in scoring. When he goes to the net and skate in the slot, he scores - like the 2 the other day. Leadership issues? I think it's valid that he's not the right captain. His effort? I think he's not as focused and driven as last year. A problem now and going forward? Yes. His contract?
Arguably too long. I fear the last 1-2 years of it. What can you do? However, as guys like Stone may get 12 million? Maybe Kopitars 10 million is not so bad looking....one of my fears is that he's
seemed to have lost a step and a half just from last year....he must lose a little weight and get back to work where he was.'

However, why is no one talking about the WAY BIGGER problem, the elephant in the room? Your #2 center is the 4th most important player on your team, after 1C, 1D, and Goalie. 2C is your 4th most important and the Kings have the worst, 31st in NHL 2C. How to fix this? It ain't fixable, he must be off the team, by opening night. 19-20.

Carter cannot be on this team. 59 games, 14 even strength points. Has to be worse alltime NHL stats for 2nd line center. He's done. More than Richards was done. No goals last 13 games. Not a single plus in +/- in those 13 games. 7.4 S%. 5 even strength goals in 59 games. How can you ice a 2nd line ctr with 5 ESG in 59 games and compete? You can't. Compare that to Leipsic - 38 games with Kings and 14 even strength points; from all kinds of lines and combos. The above lineup is not looking great, but Carter brings it to lower levels even moreso and will be 35. Must keep culling 30+ year olds - Carter, Lewis for starters

Question: what if they cannot trade him? My biggest fear and if he's 2C, the Kings simply cannot compete and are destined for bottom 5 teams in NHL. Period.

discuss.