Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[Jeune Poulet]

Please explain why it is ridiculous to believe Slafkovsky can hit 90 points in a season.

Are you saying he will reach 90 points? How many points are you expecting from this guy?

 

[Tabarouette]

Please explain why it is ridiculous to believe Slafkovsky can hit 90 points in a season.

Give me the prescient details please.

You’ve said your posts are reasonable middle ground posts, but you haven’t given any reasoning behind your takes. What is it exactly that makes you believe he won’t be a ppg in at least one season in his career?

you can't just predict something outlandish and go hmm prove me wrong or I win the debate

like what do you mean bro

 

[le_sean]

you can't just predict something outlandish and go hmm prove me wrong or I win the debate

like what do you mean bro

Almost as silly as saying he was the worst skater in the NHL earlier this season with no proof.

 

[417]

He was dogshit, like bottom 1% of NHL players for a good bit of his first 60ish games, blame it on Anderson if you want, that didnt help, but he was. He had stretches of multiple games without even landing a shot on net, like come on.

I cant control what others say.

Sorry had to touch on this again.

Do you know how few NHL player could have even played in the NHL, never mind look like “dog shit” at 18yrs old?

There are some bad players in the NHL, like really bad…but to suggest the or one of the youngest was part of this bottom 1% is so far removed from the reality of things., its difficult to know if you're actually being serious.

Somewhere along the line, there became a standard where if you're 18yrs old in the NHL, you have to play like Conor McDavid or else, you need to be banished to whatever amateur league you're from so you can put up a ton of points “Filip Mesar style”.

 

[waitin425]

you can't just predict something outlandish and go hmm prove me wrong or I win the debate

like what do you mean bro

Using that term when describing Slaf's potential is outlandish.

 

[417]

Crazy that there are still pessimists around us.

Slaf is beasting right now and the sky is the limit for this kid.

Stats are following. Many of us predicted this. Correctly I might add. Some of those correct posters, are now predicting 90 point ceilings. Once again the nay-sayers are flabbergasted by such lofty predictions, and shouting them down as if they have the crystal ball to his development. Well....that crystal ball has already proven wrong, so maybe .......

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A dose of pessimism is healthy…but what encourages me, is that we’re really only seeing the baseline of what he can do.

There's just so much more room for growth in his game and he's shown an ability to learn, adapt and apply at a very high level so far.

 

[le_sean]

A dose of pessimism is healthy…but what encourages me, is that we’re really only seeing the baseline of what he can do.

There's just so much more room for growth in his game and he's shown an ability to learn, adapt and apply at a very high level so far.

The most optimistic thing to me is the player himself realizes that it’s a marathon and not a sprint. I would think the vast majority of players in his situation would enter a cycle of frustration and non-production as a result. He acknowledges that he’s developing, which is uncharacteristically mature for a 19 year old 1st overall pick.

 

[Tabarouette]

Almost as silly as saying he was the worst skater in the NHL earlier this season with no proof.

I could pull up basic stats like his 2 points in the first 15 games this year

or 6 points in the first 29

or clips of the famous eye test where he's falling around, taking seconds to decide on his shot, turning the puck over in the filthiest ways

or maybe advanced stats from last year where he was negative across the board, xgf, corsi, etc, pick one he was in the negative

or maybe advanced stats from the beginning of the year where it was slightly better, but still negative

or you could keep attacking me personally since you have nothing to bring to the conversation really (don't worry I saw your post)

 

[le_sean]

I could pull up basic stats like his 2 points in the first 15 games this year

or 6 points in the first 29

or clips of the famous eye test where he's falling around, taking seconds to decide on his shot, turning the puck over in the filthiest ways

or maybe advanced stats from last year where he was negative across the board, xgf, corsi, etc, pick one he was in the negative

or maybe advanced stats from the beginning of the year where it was slightly better, but still negative

or you could keep attacking me personally since you have nothing to bring to the conversation really (don't worry I saw your post)

Sure, provide the stats since you’re so sure of yourself. Also include skating speed, which you were so adamant about.

And good, I’m now glad that you did.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Are you saying he will reach 90 points? How many points are you expecting from this guy?

How many are you expecting? In a career year

 

[417]

I could pull up basic stats like his 2 points in the first 15 games this year

or 6 points in the first 29

or clips of the famous eye test where he's falling around, taking seconds to decide on his shot, turning the puck over in the filthiest ways

or maybe advanced stats from last year where he was negative across the board, xgf, corsi, etc, pick one he was in the negative

or maybe advanced stats from the beginning of the year where it was slightly better, but still negative

or you could keep attacking me personally since you have nothing to bring to the conversation really (don't worry I saw your post)

Anyone could do that.

 

[Tabarouette]

Anyone could do that.

well clearly not *everyone*

 

[le_sean]

Anyone could do that.

Don’t expect much from someone that says “he was one of the worst players in the NHL the first 15 games of 2023-24, just look at his advanced stats from the beginning of last season as proof”

 

[SamHabsFan]

hey I actually do like the phrase "fandom anxiety" and I will admit 100% i'm afflicted by it

This guy is not a typical 1st overall and I highly doubt his ceiling is near the typical 1st overall, our core around him is *ok* in some places, we still don't have any superstars, we don't have enough talent, but we're already looking like a team that will not be bad enough to keep tanking much longer, while also not being anywhere good enough to contend

I am a scared little boy and i'm definitely afraid that we missed our tanking window (and sadly, he should've been the centerpiece) and that we're most likely back to being a drive for 9th team for the next decade and it's affecting my opinions for sure, it f***ing sucks, i'd love to cheer for a team that isn't just ok for once

I hear you, and you know what you may be right, I would have loved for the habs to get Celebrini, demidov or the next superstar of the NHL (which we still can BTW). But there is a thin line between a succesful rebuild and having a bunch of talented losers on the roster (See Buffalo, Ottawa, leafs..).

We are at the point where the kids are winning us games, what you gonna do with that? Trade suzuki so you can have a chance at celebrini?? come on! Hughes sold what he had to sold, the prospect bank is filled up, and we may have a top of the NHL defense unit in a few years.

The only thing you can do here is keep improving the forwards through draft and trades and keep the winning culture alive. If the team would have been a tire fire all year and finish dead last with no sign of improvement, do you think Caufield or suzuki or guhle still wanna be here in a couple of years ? ROR and Eichel asked to move because of the perpetual rebuild in buffalo, Chychrun want to leave Ottawa, Debrincat left and then their rebuild cycle continues.

Obviously there is a couple elements missing for the habs to have a perfect rebuild, but I think they did an allright job with the situation they got, and the team will definitely be better than what we've seen the past couple decades. Its not too far fetched that this team can be a playoff team year in and year out in a couple of years and Im ok with that, if there was a direct pathway to the stanley cup we would know by now

 

[japhi]

When you get burned over kids showing signs of progress for 25+ years you kinda get defensive about it

Definitely helps to be able to do your own talent analysis.

I remember the first time I saw Galch and KK skate in the NHL, thinking uh oh. Couldn't think of many high end modern players that skated so poorly. Or Galch, big players that skated poorly AND didn;t use their size.

Conversely, Slaf has all the tools and was very clearly struggling with time and space, and also very clearly improving week over week.

Hockey is a tough game to analyze and if you rely on others then yes it could get frustrating.

 

[Kennerback]

Please explain why it is ridiculous to believe Slafkovsky can hit 90 points in a season.

Give me the prescient details please.

You’ve said your posts are reasonable middle ground posts, but you haven’t given any reasoning behind your takes. What is it exactly that makes you believe he won’t be a ppg in at least one season in his career?

It's a statistical probability that he might hit 90 points but still an unlikely event. Slafkovsky is more valuable than Roy but is not as good a finisher. A lot of his contribution will be proto-assists and other non-scoreboard contribution that leads to goals.

 

[Tabarouette]

Definitely helps to be able to do your own talent analysis.

I remember the first time I saw Galch and KK skate in the NHL, thinking uh oh. Couldn't think of many high end modern players that skated so poorly. Or Galch, big players that skated poorly AND didn;t use their size.

Conversely, Slaf has all the tools and was very clearly struggling with time and space, and also very clearly improving week over week.

Hockey is a tough game to analyze and if you rely on others then yes it could get frustrating.

Galchenyuk was particularly frustrating to me man. If people think this Slaf discussion is rough man, having to argue with people who were predicting Galchenyuk would be a superstar any time this dickhead would pull off a cool deke (before losing the puck for the 6th time this shift) was the dark ages of hockey discussion

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Definitely helps to be able to do your own talent analysis.

I remember the first time I saw Galch and KK skate in the NHL, thinking uh oh. Couldn't think of many high end modern players that skated so poorly. Or Galch, big players that skated poorly AND didn;t use their size.

Conversely, Slaf has all the tools and was very clearly struggling with time and space, and also very clearly improving week over week.

Hockey is a tough game to analyze and if you rely on others then yes it could get frustrating.

I had similar moments with Galchenyuk but kind of compartmentalized it.

When Galch and Forsberg were at the WJCs and Forsberg was flying and Galch...was not.

I kept thinking he'd get bigger and stronger and faster and he really never did. The skating improved but nowhere enough. Galch was drafted near 200 lbs and I thought/hoped he'd do something close to 220 which might not have been a good assumption on my part but still he just kind of stagnated.

 

[japhi]

Galchenyuk was particularly frustrating to me man. If people think this Slaf discussion is rough man, having to argue with people who were predicting Galchenyuk would be a superstar any time this dickhead would pull off a cool deke (before losing the puck for the 6th time this shift) was the dark ages of hockey discussion

Yes, that outside inside move he tried 26K times, that never worked. He was limited from the day he stepped into the NHL and it's a miracle that the team got the production out of him they did, and when injuries and substance issues came into play it was over.

Slaf to my eye, I could see the potential from day one. Sky is the limit, no one that is watching the games and following the player should be disappointed. Won't predict where he ends up but his dev curve is ridiculous, he has a unicorn skill set, and he is no producing at a great clip for a 19yo. What's not to like?

 

[417]

well clearly not *everyone*

who can't go on Hockey DB or read a box score.

It doesn't tell the whole story.

 

[Tabarouette]

who can't go on Hockey DB or read a box score.

It doesn't tell the whole story.

well i'd argue the eye test was significantly worse than the already terrible on-paper test, that's part of the issue where we all disagreed and I don't (or didn't since he's doing better now) see it

 

[Kennerback]

Yes, that outside inside move he tried 26K times, that never worked. He was limited from the day he stepped into the NHL and it's a miracle that the team got the production out of him they did, and when injuries and substance issues came into play it was over.

Slaf to my eye, I could see the potential from day one. Sky is the limit, no one that is watching the games and following the player should be disappointed. Won't predict where he ends up but his dev curve is ridiculous, he has a unicorn skill set, and he is no producing at a great clip for a 19yo. What's not to like?

Slaf can create scoring opportunities like no prospect I've seen before. I only ever hoped slow and steady progression from KK or Galchenyuk. Which was OK. It's one of the reasons I've been more frustrated with Slaf than I ever was with the other two. Because there's this amazing discrepancy between what I believe Slaf could do (and what I could have never dreamed of from the two other) and what he's been actually doing.

 

[Tabarouette]

I also won't attack anyone (because I don't keep track of who the hell says what who cares) but people are also rewriting history pretty hard for Galchenyuk now that he's been exposed this hard

Where's the "yeah but he scored 30 goals" crowd at raise your hand

 

[LesCanadiens]

It's a statistical probability that he might hit 90 points but still an unlikely event. Slafkovsky is more valuable than Roy but is not as good a finisher. A lot of his contribution will be proto-assists and other non-scoreboard contribution that leads to goals.

That's the definition of ceiling. He has the tools and he has the toolbox. Stuff like his shot is very easily fixable. I don't see anyone guaranteeing he's a 90pt guy (I'm definitely not), I just see people saying the potential is there. He wasn't chosen 1OA for nothing. Poor draft year or not. Unlike guys like Galch or KK, he has the 2 key elements IMO needed to surprise even his harshest critics: Coachability and will.

Same posters who disappeared when he started performing reappear suddenly only to mock and ridicule. I just don't get it We're all just projecting what the future may hold for a 19 year old prospect. And there is not doubt the range can be very wide. But to mock people for making a case for a 90pt career year/ceiling on a 19 year old 240lb, 6'3" forward oozing with skill, is really unfair.

 

[417]

well i'd argue the eye test was significantly worse than the already terrible on-paper test, that's part of the issue where we all disagreed and I don't (or didn't since he's doing better now) see it

An eye test is only valuable if it's sanitized...if you're looking at the eye test with a player through the performance lens of previous 1st overall picks, then you're not being true to that process.

How many times have we had discussions in this thread about "Well Jack Hughes or Joe Thornton did this his first 82 games"...does that really matter? Is that really fair to the "eye test"?

If when you're watching Slafkovsky you're judging everything he's doing through the lens of what Jack Hughes was doing at the same time...then that eye test isn't worth anything.

Personally, the only lens I've watched Slafkovsky through is through the lens that he was/is one of the few teenagers in the world playing hockey in the best league in the world and he's not doing so out of default or because the team wants to do him a solid. Him not performing at an exceptional rate for the first 82 games of his NHL career, isn't a harbinger or prophecy of doom like many seem to imply (or flat out say) it was.

I argued that at the time and everything that's currently happening now, supports it. We're just way too impatient as fans.