Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[le_sean]

An eye test is only valuable if it's sanitized...if you're looking at the eye test with a player through the performance lens of previous 1st overall picks, then you're not being true to that process.

How many times have we had discussions in this thread about "Well Jack Hughes or Joe Thornton did this his first 82 games"...does that really matter? Is that really fair to the "eye test"?

If when you're watching Slafkovsky you're judging everything he's doing through the lens of what Jack Hughes was doing at the same time...then that eye test isn't worth anything.

Personally, the only lens I've watched Slafkovsky through is through the lens that he was/is one of the few teenagers in the world playing hockey in the best league in the world and he's not doing so out of default or because the team wants to do him a solid. Him not performing at an exceptional rate for the first 82 games of his NHL career, isn't a harbinger or prophecy of doom like many seem to imply (or flat out say) it was.

I argued that at the time and everything that's currently happening now, supports it. We're just way too impatient as fans.

I’d argue that the “eye test” is what kept him in the NHL. Clearly much smarter hockey people liked what they saw despite the lack of production.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

I also won't attack anyone (because I don't keep track of who the hell says what who cares) but people are also rewriting history pretty hard for Galchenyuk now that he's been exposed this hard

Where's the "yeah but he scored 30 goals" crowd at raise your hand

Well to elaborate on my last post to japhi, I did say I compartmentalized the bad stuff. Which means I still believed in him despite the things I saw that were worrisome. To what point, I can't remember exactly.

I agreed with management fairly quickly that he was better at the wing but him not getting chances there while DD seemed to have an infinite amount of rope was stupid. But yes, I was very high on him initially and it carried on longer than it should've. I can't remember if I was shouting down people who held your opinion.

I was much more vehement defending KK but again he stagnated. I still think if he put it all together that was a helluva player. A #2C who could create havoc with his forecheck and size. I think there was potential there and stand by him showing more potential than Galch did in the first couple years.

I was pretty rough with people over KK, that much I remember but I still believe the potential was there.

So hopefully that quells your revisionism fears from me.

I’d argue that the “eye test” is what kept him in the NHL. Clearly much smarter hockey people liked what they saw despite the lack of production.

they seemed confident that what was wrong was fixable.

 

[BenchBrawl]

New Jersey fans thinking we would flip Slaf for Nemec = lol

Delusional.

 

[Rapala]

Still a Bambi, but it’s coming next year we take a step

Hey I didn't choose this Avvy for a Bambi.

 

[Rapala]

The tape job checks out lol

Wait a minute they don't take the stick away like they do in Boston.

 

[Rapala]

I’d argue that the “eye test” is what kept him in the NHL. Clearly much smarter hockey people liked what they saw despite the lack of production.

I think it's safe to say Slaf's work over the summer was evident from day 1 in camp and kept him away from Laval.
I also think it's safe to say Slaf will be a 65-70 point player with benefits and the upside is still there depending how he continues to progress.
Does anyone think he won't be able to match the great Max Domi's output?

 

[Goalfield13]

One of the attributes scouts lauded about Slaf was his coachability. It seems they were 100% correct.

 

[Heffyhoof]

He's been great lately, but MSL is going to need to keep breaking out the shooter tutor. We've got scoring from in close with the huge frame down, now it's about releasing faster in stride and off the pass from around the hashmarks.

He'll never be Cole, but if he can get around 20-25 goals in a year, I see good reason to expect at least a season or two where he gets around 65-70 assists and 90 points on a contending team.

 

[JoelWarlord]

hey I actually do like the phrase "fandom anxiety" and I will admit 100% i'm afflicted by it

This guy is not a typical 1st overall and I highly doubt his ceiling is near the typical 1st overall, our core around him is *ok* in some places, we still don't have any superstars, we don't have enough talent, but we're already looking like a team that will not be bad enough to keep tanking much longer, while also not being anywhere good enough to contend

Yeah for sure, I definitely share the concerns that Slafkovsky/Suzuki/Caufield/Dach/Newhook + one of the forwards from this draft (assuming we don't end up with Celebrini or maybe Lindstrom) won't be enough. It would have been nice if there was a Bedard/McDavid/Crosby for us at #1 but there just wasn't and it's unfair to lump the fanbase baggage or those hopes for a superstar on this player.

As for the conversation about him being the worst skater in the league idk, I just think that's fairly extreme. I'm not going to say he was retroactively "good" but compared to his role which was generally being used in 4th/low 3rd line mins he was about as productive as anyone else in that role (the per 60 rates compared to eg. Spezza when he was a luxury scoring 4C for the Leafs etc). Not that I expect ppl to throw flowers for that but it's not like the guy was Pezzetta either. To my eye the flashes were always there and he just looked like a lost puppy adjusting to the NHL. That's not "good" but also not a terrifying thing for a teenage player who's learning IMO, and it's a concept we all accept when it comes to drafting SHL players with 8 points in 46 games too.

It reminds me a lot of watching early career Josh Allen where there were a lot of obvious problems with his game and the stat lines were "horrible" but when you actually watched him play there were drives where you could see it all click and the upside was still very tangible even if the overall level of play wasn't there yet. The flaws were in the details and technical side of things and I see rookie (and current) Slafkovsky similarly. He was learning to play off the puck and use his frame in the NHL, not some total scrub that just got a magic infusion of talent 7-8 weeks ago. I'm not arguing Slafkovsky has the same upside as Allen but there's a lot of parallels there and it's a good example of the nuance between "bad" statlines/awkward eye test bad xG results/shot share etc and bad projections/bad development etc. Struggling at the highest level does not always mean a player is not ready to be there IMO.

I am a scared little boy and i'm definitely afraid that we missed our tanking window (and sadly, he should've been the centerpiece) and that we're most likely back to being a drive for 9th team for the next decade and it's affecting my opinions for sure, it f***ing sucks, i'd love to cheer for a team that isn't just ok for once

I'm bullish on Slafkovsky but I share these concerns, I don't think the current forward core is good enough unless we get Celebrini. I don't think it's a finished product though and I think we have a clearer path to being in the 2010s Blues or pre-Eichel Vegas tier if nobody emerges as a franchise forward, and it's comparatively easier to trade from that position than to try and patch all the holes on a Price/Subban/Pacioretty type core, and there's always a possibility someone will surpass expectations (I don't think "reasonable" analysts expected Subban would hit the heights he did for instance).

The "good" thing this time around is it doesn't seem like we'll have goaltending that can single handedly carry a mediocre roster so the skaters are going to have to do it themselves. Our goaltending has been good this year but in the sense of taking a 28th place team to ~25th, not Price Hart/Vezina with DD as the #1 center level. The skaters will have to do most of the heavy lifting this time around and we'll be picking around the top 10ish until they can do it.

 

[Habssince89]

One of the attributes scouts lauded about Slaf was his coachability. It seems they were 100% correct.

The off-ice commitment and attitude is what might make him a superstar. I feel like he's just going to keep rounding out his game.

 

[Tabarouette]

Yeah for sure, I definitely share the concerns that Slafkovsky/Suzuki/Caufield/Dach/Newhook + one of the forwards from this draft (assuming we don't end up with Celebrini or maybe Lindstrom) will be enough as is. It would have been nice if there was a Bedard/McDavid/Crosby for us at #1 but there just wasn't and it's unfair to lump the fanbase baggage or those hopes for a superstar on this player.

As for the conversation about him being the worst skater in the league idk, I just think that's fairly extreme. I'm not going to say he was retroactively "good" but compared to his role which was generally being used in 4th/low 3rd line mins he was about as productive as anyone else in that role (the per 60 rates compared to eg. Spezza when he was a luxury scoring 4C for the Leafs etc). Not that I expect ppl to throw flowers for that but it's not like the guy was Pezzetta either. To my eye the flashes were always there and he just looked like a lost puppy adjusting to the NHL. That's not "good" but also not a terrifying thing for a teenage player who's learning IMO, and it's a concept we all accept when it comes to drafting SHL players with 8 points in 46 games too.

It reminds me a lot of watching early career Josh Allen where there were a lot of obvious problems with his game and the stat lines were "horrible" but when you actually watched him play there were drives where you could see it all click and the upside was still very tangible even if the overall level of play wasn't there yet. The flaws were in the details and technical side of things and I see rookie (and current) Slafkovsky similarly. He was learning to play off the puck and use his frame in the NHL, not some total scrub that just got a magic infusion of talent 7-8 weeks ago. I'm not arguing Slafkovsky has the same upside as Allen but there's a lot of parallels there and it's a good example of the nuance between "bad" statlines/awkward eye test bad xG results/shot share etc and bad projections/bad development etc. Struggling at the highest level does not always mean a player is not ready to be there IMO.

I'm bullish on Slafkovsky but I share these concerns, I don't think the current forward core is good enough unless we get Celebrini. I don't think it's a finished product though and I think we have a clearer path to being in the 2010s Blues or pre-Eichel Vegas tier if nobody emerges as a franchise forward, and it's comparatively easier to trade from that position than to try and patch all the holes on a Price/Subban/Pacioretty type core, and there's always a possibility someone will surpass expectations (I don't think "reasonable" analysts expected Subban would hit the heights he did for instance).

The "good" thing this time around is it doesn't seem like we'll have goaltending that can single handedly carry a mediocre roster so the skaters are going to have to do it themselves. Our goaltending has been good this year but in the sense of taking a 28th place team to ~25th, not Price Hart/Vezina with DD as the #1 center level. The skaters will have to do most of the heavy lifting this time around and we'll be picking around the top 10ish until they can do it.

I said he was *one of* the worst, it wasn't pretty to watch and the stats were there to back it up for a while. It's much better now

And yeah the point on goaltending is so weird to us as a fanbase specifically, because the league clearly entered a new era while we still had Price and while he's still on our mind. But ultimately what you need nowadays is just a serviceable goalie who can get hot at the right time which hey, honestly, I like Montembeault and I think he's a perfectly ok goaltender in this NHL

 

[BLONG7]

New Jersey fans thinking we would flip Slaf for Nemec = lol

Delusional.

Slaf is like a train................he is rolling along the track..............let's see where this goes the next season or two.
I think the guy will become a 60-75 pt player......Suzuki or Dach as his C...........

Can't help but notice this thread is missing someone? Is he not allowed to post here anymore?
What did I miss?

 

[habdynasty]

Slaf is like a train................he is rolling along the track..............let's see where this goes the next season or two.
I think the guy will become a 60-75 pt player......Suzuki or Dach as his C...........

Can't help but notice this thread is missing someone? Is he not allowed to post here anymore?
What did I miss?

They took off like I predicted a couple months ago.

 

[japhi]

I’d argue that the “eye test” is what kept him in the NHL. Clearly much smarter hockey people liked what they saw despite the lack of production.

Exactly this, the eye test showed the puck followed him around, he was very often in the right place and was getting lots of touches. Hardly invisible, which is why low IQ posters felt he was a low IQ player when he would rush the play. Much harder to learn to be where the puck is, then to get acclimated to speed of the game. Hockey guys would know this.

 

[Jaynki]

New Jersey fans thinking we would flip Slaf for Nemec = lol

Delusional.

Guess they havent notice who failed his coverage in two of our three goal yesterday.

Sincerely Nemec is a stud tho but Slafkovsky ainec

 

[bcv]

Well, just a few minutes before you posted that, Miller Time pretty unambiguously said he expected 90 points. That's like, a few minutes ago.

And earlier today:


It's pretty routine to read stuff like this on this thread, with no one ever questioning these completely ridiculous takes, like even a little.

My bad

 

[Frank Drebin]

The state of this board right now had we taken Wright and Slaf was evolving like this with the Devils...

 

[Miller Time]

Well, just a few minutes before you posted that, Miller Time pretty unambiguously said he expected 90 points. That's like, a few minutes ago.

And earlier today:


It's pretty routine to read stuff like this on this thread, with no one ever questioning these completely ridiculous takes, like even a little.

Please don't make crap up or put words in my mouth to try to salvage your bad take.

If you're confused or have trouble understanding what you read, it's ok to simply ask a clarifying question.

 

[Kennedys]

Habs even strength points leaders. Wow

 

[DAChampion]

Are blocked shots actually a good thing given that they can cause injuries?

 

[Nicko999]

Are blocked shots actually a good thing given that they can cause injuries?

They are good if it's the occasional timely one.

When you lead the league in that category it means you are also playing defense, rarely have the puck. Also you are right, more chance of injuries. We've been led to think blocked shots are a positive stat because that was the only thing the team was good at for the past 30+ years.

 

[Tabarouette]

well well no point last night huh, really makes you think

 

[BLONG7]

Habs even strength points leaders. Wow

View attachment 806086

The kid is on a nice, and steady incline.......................a work in progress, and it is looking up...

 

[Tyson]

The kid is on a nice, and steady incline.......................a work in progress, and it is looking up...

His passing skills are elite. He always seems to find someone.

 

[Natey]

The state of this board right now had we taken Wright and Slaf was evolving like this with the Devils...

Really shows you his personality.

The death stare he gave at the draft was always going to go one of two ways. 1. You dig deep and become even more than what you were. 2. You stay the same.

That stare was an ego being busted, not a player wanting to prove people wrong.

They are good if it's the occasional timely one.

When you lead the league in that category it means you are also playing defense, rarely have the puck. Also you are right, more chance of injuries. We've been led to think blocked shots are a positive stat because that was the only thing the team was good at for the past 30+ years.

If it wasn't a positive thing, coaches would stop teaching players to block shots.

Of course blocking shots is a positive if you do correctly.