Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[417]

Nah... that train has passed. This is december 2023, BTW, If you're still expecting Slafkovsky to hit 80 points in his career, you need to catch up even more on development than I thought.

I've never said anything about point expectations for Slafkovsky, I don't get caught up in those kinds of things at this point.

As far as me "catching up" on development...you guys make me laugh, all of you act like you're experts on the topic lol.

That would have been the optimal trajectory.

Yet here we are.

Perhaps you think he'd be a PPG player had he been sent there. But i'm the one who needs to "catch up" on development lol.

Saying "it didn't work out" with Josh Anderson is another demonstration that you don't really understand how development work. He's actually a success story on how developing a player at the proper level of competition can pay off.

The hockey gatekeepers here make me laugh, always talking down to people like they're development experts but y'all are just like me...just on a hockey message board talking about hockey. The only difference is i'm humble enough to know that development is a complex thing, even experts who are involved in hockey development know that it's complex.

Professional development coaches don't get it right most of the time.

But y'all got all the answers lol...that's cute.

He was a middle six forward in junior. Not a guy with all the tools like Slaf. He was drafted in the 4th round for a reason. But playing against meaningful competition in junior and then in the AHL paid off for him. I don't rea

He was a middle six forward in junior and despite playing over 100 AHL games and participating in the WJCs.

He's still a middle six forward...imagine that.

lly know enough about Armia's past development so I'll refrain from commenting that case.

But it seems you have to be reminded time and time again: An optimal path just increases the chance a player will achieve his full potential. It does not guarantee it.

Yes, I keep being reminded by the same gatekeepers that development is some set plan that must be followed by every single player, a template that can't be deviated from.

Yawn.

It's useless to try to point at outliers to prove your point. It's also useless to point at individual players and their statistical curves and compare them to other players. I know a lot of people on both side of these arguments do that but that's not really how it works.

YOU brought up those outliers.

My posts are about listening to science, atheletic development and proven concepts like meaningful competition in youth. This is really basic stuff that, as a self-declared coach you should understand: basic stuff like a healthy ration of success/failure, growing in the proper environment, meaningful competition, and setting players up to succeed.

This organization, with its impatience, has failed this player starting in autumn 2022 by not sending him where he belongs and we are now stuck a season and a half later with a rushed product who shows great potential in certain facets, but is barely able to execute in certain areas and can't properly self evaluate.

I've never argued against any of these things you're referring too. I just don't believe in this magic pill theory the gatekeepers like to parrot. As a "self-declared coach" I see it every day. The player on my team whose grown the most this season, is the player who contributes the less on the scoresheet.

You can keep talking down to me like I don't understand development...I at least know that development isn't something that can be fully understood, there are bunch of variables that one just can never plan for. Anyone claiming to know exactly how it works is full of shit to be honest.

He's got too much natural talent to be useless and they can still turn him into a legit, consistent 50, 60 point top six guy, I guess. But it's going to be an uphill battle.

I'm not ready to cap his point total because so much of that is circumstantial...if for example the Habs sign Leon Draisaitl as a UFA in 2 years, I guarantee you that his point ceiling will rise.

I do agree that he has too much natural talent to be useless, where he ultimately ends up is in his hands and while i'm unsure of his ultimate ceiling at this point, i'm fairly confident that we're just seeing the tip of the iceberg with this player and despite all of the typical "sky is falling" Habs fans reactions.

Juraj Slafkovsky is actually one of the few 19 year old hockey players who are playing in the NHL in the world. That makes him exceptional by nature (don't confuse that with exceptional talent), not someone whose failing or on the verge of failing his entire career.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Nah... that train has passed. This is december 2023, BTW, If you're still expecting Slafkovsky to hit 80 points in his career, you need to catch up even more on development than I thought.

It’s absolutely hilarious that you point out that it’s currently 2023 and then go onto to chide another poster for thinking Slaf could be an 80 point player…

 

[417]

It’s absolutely hilarious that you point out that it’s currently 2023 and then go onto to chide another poster for thinking Slaf could be an 80 point player…

Which by the way, I've NEVER said that I think he can be a 80pt player, I've never advanced what I think his point ceiling could be.

Zach Hyman was a PPG player last year and is again this year...if you would have told me that 3-4 years ago I would have laughed.

But as I always like to say, production is mostly circumstancial.

 

[417]

https://x.com/MoneyPuckdotcom/status/1737842483919466930?s=20

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Which by the way, I've NEVER said that I think he can be a 80pt player, I've never advanced what I think his point ceiling could be.

Zach Hyman was a PPG player last year and is again this year...if you would have told me that 3-4 years ago I would have laughed.

But as I always like to say, production is mostly circumstancial.

If Slaf has a 50 pt ceiling playing with CC and Suzuki then he’s not a good 1OA pick but thankfully he’s not a bum so that’s actually his floor

https://x.com/MoneyPuckdotcom/status/1737842483919466930?s=20

There’s no way that line doesn’t click production wise at some point.

 

[417]

There’s no way that line doesn’t click production wise at some point.

But imagine what he could do at the WJCs with Mesar and Sykora on their top line??

 

[nhlfan9191]

If Slaf has a 50 pt ceiling playing with CC and Suzuki then he’s not a good 1OA pick but thankfully he’s not a bum so that’s actually his floor


There’s no way that line doesn’t click production wise at some point.

His floor is lower then 50 points. His floor is a good bottom 6’er. Which isn’t bad as the guys drafted around him were riskier picks in this aspect.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

But imagine what he could do at the WJCs with Mesar and Sykora on their top line??

3 pts in 7 games AT MOST

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

His floor is lower then 50 points. His floor is a good bottom 6’er. Which isn’t bad as the guys drafted around him were riskier picks in this aspect.

I don’t know. He’s already on the top line at 19 and seems to be doing very well there despite his flaws. He doesn’t even have a full season of games behind him.

You could be right. Who knows. I think that’s a bit low but you’re not being extreme here. I know I’m very bullish and I could be wrong but a 50 pt ceiling is absurd. There’s no way he can’t do better than that

 

[nhlfan9191]

I don’t know. He’s already on the top line at 19 and seems to be doing very well there despite his flaws. He doesn’t even have a full season of games behind him.

You could be right. Who knows. I think that’s a bit low but you’re not being extreme here. I know I’m very bullish and I could be wrong but a 50 pt ceiling is absurd. There’s no way he can’t do better than that

He isn’t on the top line on any other team in the NHL. He’s not top 6 in most either. That’s completely situational on where we are as a team. But I agree, capping a 19 year olds potential at 50 points does seem like a low ball. I don’t think we would’ve drafted him at all if the scouts thought there was truth to that projection.

 

[DAChampion]

I don’t know. He’s already on the top line at 19 and seems to be doing very well there despite his flaws.

No player is doing well until they can sustain production.

 

[le_sean]

But imagine what he could do at the WJCs with Mesar and Sykora on their top line??

Short of winning player of the tournament, there’s nothing he could do at the WJC that could sway his doubters. It would be a lose-lose going there.

He isn’t on the top line on any other team in the NHL. He’s not top 6 in most either. That’s completely situational on where we are as a team. But I agree, capping a 19 year olds potential at 50 points does seem like a low ball. I don’t think we would’ve drafted him at all if the scouts thought there was truth to that projection.

I don’t agree with this. The Habs are close to a playoff spot. There’s easily several teams where he’d be on the top line and he’d be in most Top-6s. His size and strength alone would get him there. He’s not getting preferential treatment here, he earned his icetime.

 

[417]

Short of winning player of the tournament, there’s nothing he could do at the WJC that could sway his doubters. It would be a lose-lose going there.

Yeah I was just being sarcastic...he's on the top line of an NHL team and at least for the sample size provided in that graph, is part of a line that's generating a lot of scoring chances but not converting at the expected rate.

That is way more valuable than anything he could gain being sent to the WJCs

I don’t agree with this. The Habs are close to a playoff spot. There’s easily several teams where he’d be on the top line and he’d be in most Top-6s. His size and strength alone would get him there. He’s not getting preferential treatment here, he earned his icetime.

Either way, who cares if he would be in the top 6 of another team...he's on the Montreal Canadiens.

People working extra hard right now to diminish the progress he's making.

 

[Naslundforever]

https://x.com/MoneyPuckdotcom/status/1737842483919466930?s=20

60%+ opportunities going their way so far; I want them to start converting so much

 

[Sasha Orlov]

But imagine what he could do at the WJCs with Mesar and Sykora on their top line??

Probably get like 2 points the whole tournament and look even worse coming out of it

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Short of winning player of the tournament, there’s nothing he could do at the WJC that could sway his doubters. It would be a lose-lose going there.


I don’t agree with this. The Habs are close to a playoff spot. There’s easily several teams where he’d be on the top line and he’d be in most Top-6s. His size and strength alone would get him there. He’s not getting preferential treatment here, he earned his icetime.

Not necessarily. He’d dominate and display more what he can do. People would be heartened to see it.

Agreed with the 2nd part. He’s not treading water and many think he’s been the best on that line. He’s done everything but produce

 

[M.C.G. 31]

Don’t really see the point in sending him to a tournament where he could potentially dominate against other teens.

He’s starting to find his groove and learning to play the NHL game and looks more confident - keep that going and give him the 17+ minutes a game at this level that he’s been looking good with.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Short of winning player of the tournament, there’s nothing he could do at the WJC that could sway his doubters. It would be a lose-lose going there.


I don’t agree with this. The Habs are close to a playoff spot. There’s easily several teams where he’d be on the top line and he’d be in most Top-6s. His size and strength alone would get him there. He’s not getting preferential treatment here, he earned his icetime.

Just to clarify, I’m not advocating for him to go. I just figure seeing is believing with people regardless of competition.

If Slaf and bustbacher were playing against juniors the last couple years people would be higher on them

 

[Captain Mountain]

Yes. Goalscoring is our problem but if we can point out a player for whom scoring a goal is the biggest challenge that's Slafkofsky. 4 in 39 games last year, 2 in 31 games this year.
And it's not a problem of skill which he has plenty. It's not about adjustment. It's all about his head.
Time is passing quickly and this league is unforgiving.

But almost none of that is true. If you're stretching over the past two years, Evans has struggled more with goal scoring in general and Anderson, Caufield and Gallagher are all underperforming expectations to a greater degree. It is about adjustment, which is tied to the mental aspect. Time isn't "passing quickly", he's still one of the youngest players in the league. And frankly, you know one of the absolute worst ways to deal with problems "about his head" or anything related to that? Creating artificial urgency and pressure.

 

[Kennerback]

He isn’t on the top line on any other team in the NHL. He’s not top 6 in most either. That’s completely situational on where we are as a team. But I agree, capping a 19 year olds potential at 50 points does seem like a low ball. I don’t think we would’ve drafted him at all if the scouts thought there was truth to that projection.

I think the draft projections need to be adjusted to what we’ve learned.

Overvaluation: I believed his shot was better than that. Scouting reports certainly did too as I distinctly remember some boasting about his release. I suspect some NHL teams got his shot release wrong. And how little he actually shot. I made the mistake to take shots on face value on the Liiga site but what they actually track is shot attempts. I was ok for 2.8 if it’s attempts but not shots. Some scouting articles made the same mistake. This is not a transient situation, Slaf shoots very little anywhere he plays.

Underevaluation: his speed, skating, strength. I saw him in videos manhandling Junior players like he does now but IDK he would seamlessly overpower NHL players on his 2nd year like they were Juniors. He’s also a top notch passer except when it comes to converting those passes into assists.

I would still take him as #1 forward if the draft was today. Yet I don’t see more than a 50 point ceiling at this point. He would need to superhumanly raise his very scarce shot number before that happens.

 

[ReHabs]

The problem with rushing prospect is that you can’t un-rush him after. Slafkovsky has nothing to do at the 2023 WJCs, he’s too far into his NHL career for such a mid-season diversion.

He’s playing as well as he’s ever played in the NHL — he might as well stay.

On the other hand, the arguments last year against sending him down to the AHL or releasing him to the WJCs were no better than fanboy rationalizing of a bad decision. We see Boston, a superior organization in every way, send their high-performing rookie to the WJCs this year. Goes to show further evidence that last year the Habs (likely MSL) was overwhelmed and asleep at the wheel with Slaf.

I would still take him as #1 forward if the draft was today. Yet I don’t see more than a 50 point ceiling at this point.

Won’t argue with your taste but swinging for a ceiling of 50pts forward with the 1OA is a fireable offense. Unfortunately, we won’t know until it’s too late but with Reinbacher also looking like the Habs left serious talent on the board, I hope we have clarity about Kent Hughes’ competence asap.

 

[Kennerback]

The problem with rushing prospect is that you can’t un-rush him after. Slafkovsky has nothing to do at the 2023 WJCs, he’s too far into his NHL career for such a mid-season diversion.

He’s playing as well as he’s ever played in the NHL — he might as well stay.

On the other hand, the arguments last year against sending him down to the AHL or releasing him to the WJCs were no better than fanboy rationalizing of a bad decision. We see Boston, a superior organization in every way, send their high-performing rookie to the WJCs this year. Goes to show further evidence that last year the Habs (likely MSL) was overwhelmed and asleep at the wheel with Slaf.


Won’t argue with your taste but swinging for a ceiling of 50pts forward with the 1OA is a fireable offense. Unfortunately, we won’t know until it’s too late but with Reinbacher also looking like the Habs left serious talent on the board, I hope we have clarity about Kent Hughes’ competence asap.

The problem is I follow Cooley and Wright too in Coachella Valley. Wright’s pointless in his last 3 AHL games. They inspire me less than Slaf.

 

[ReHabs]

The problem is I follow Cooley and Wright too in Coachella Valley. Wright’s pointless in his last 3 AHL games. They inspire me less than Slaf.

Slaf has 1pt in his last how many games. Use the same standard for all.

The Habs needed a PMD/D1 as much as they needed a W. If Wright was a DND (not convinced) and Cooley is “uninspiring” (not sure why) there was Jiricek who was off the charts productive for his age and Nemec who has basically no flaws. Both have a higher PPG in the NHL as rookies (“adapting to NA Ice”) than super stud Slafkovsky the long term project.


But there is no point relitigating this issue right now. By the end of season we’ll see if Slaf caught up to his hype or not. If yes, sweet.

 

[Naslundforever]

The problem with rushing prospect is that you can’t un-rush him after. Slafkovsky has nothing to do at the 2023 WJCs, he’s too far into his NHL career for such a mid-season diversion.

He’s playing as well as he’s ever played in the NHL — he might as well stay.

On the other hand, the arguments last year against sending him down to the AHL or releasing him to the WJCs were no better than fanboy rationalizing of a bad decision. We see Boston, a superior organization in every way, send their high-performing rookie to the WJCs this year. Goes to show further evidence that last year the Habs (likely MSL) was overwhelmed and asleep at the wheel with Slaf.


Won’t argue with your taste but swinging for a ceiling of 50pts forward with the 1OA is a fireable offense. Unfortunately, we won’t know until it’s too late but with Reinbacher also looking like the Habs left serious talent on the board, I hope we have clarity about Kent Hughes’ competence asap.

There’s possible different dev strategies between the orgs, but I imagine there are also fewer spots up for grabs on the President cup roster than the habs’ little dumpster fire.

 

[Kennerback]

Slaf has 1pt in his last how many games. Use the same standard for all.

The Habs needed a PMD/D1 as much as they needed a W. If Wright was a DND (not convinced) and Cooley is “uninspiring” (not sure why) there was Jiricek who was off the charts productive for his age and Nemec who has basically no flaws. Both have a higher PPG in the NHL as rookies (“adapting to NA Ice”) than super stud Slafkovsky the long term project.

As a whole, it was a bad crop. They couldn't make up elite players out of thin air.

He looks the best among the Forwards. It's too hard for me to also track the Ds. And apparently the guy really looking good now among the Ds is Mintyukov (#10).

Cooley's a peripheral player as we speak, and I'm sure Slaf helps an NHL team win a game much more than Cooley does at this point in their career.