Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[Andrei79]

In 2013-14 the Hamilton Bulldogs boasted the following players in development

Joonas Naatinen, Sven Andrighetto, Greg Pateryn, Morgan Ellis, Louis Leblanc, Nathan Beaulieu, Jared Tinordi, Magnus Nygren, Gabriel Dumont, Erik Nystrom, Darren Dietz.

Tons of drafted prospects by the Montreal Canadiens….wonder what happened to those guys.

4 of them played more than 150 games in the NHL ? 3 more than 200. 2 more than 290. So, despite one of the worst development and drafting teams in the league at the time, the AHL still provided warm bodies. Great point !

 

[LesCanadiens]

Lets spark some controversy...

Great coach. And I trust him and his opinions a million times more than all the HFboards armchair quarterbacks combined. What ppl are forgetting as well is they've said all along that Slaf doesn't let confidence be an issue. Seems to be very together. Not a fragile ego like Drouin for example. That's likely one of the factors they weigh when deciding to let him develop in the NHL vs the AHL.

 

[417]

Yes. This is how professional leagues work in every sport. Only the very few make them. Soccer clubs will still invest in their academies and development despite most not making it. Hockey clubs do the same. They even have a league where they can focus on it.

It is convenient how we always wax poetically about the few who spend a year or two down in the AHL and come out great NHL players because of it.

But totally ignore the large majority of them who play down there for years and never amount to anything though.

Based on how people think the AHL works here, it's a wonder why Charles Hudon is still toiling away in the AHL despite all of that success he had in the AHL.

You know, this isn't an oil company's mission statement. It's a sports entity with a clear reason for existing,. Why would they lie about their mission ? Why would they create a rule enforcing it ?

Who said anything about lying about their mission...of course that's why they exist.

I'm not sure why you thought copy and pasting it would bring anything to the discussion.

But if we were to really break down those statistics you advanced, you'd find a lot of those "AHL graduates" barely had a cup of coffee there.

For the most part, AHL rosters are mostly entirely built of career AHL/ECHL players...that's true even if you look at the composition of the current Laval Rocket.

 

[Andrei79]

I wonder what the list of players who suffered from going to the AHL looks like.

Surely that year Rantanen spent in the AHL prevented him from reaching even higher heights.

 

[Canad13ns]

And many didn't or barely.

Gallagher
Price
Suzuki
Caufield
Guhle
Xhekaj
Harris

Gallagher played half a season in the AHL, entered NHL at age 20.
Price played 12 AHL games, entered NHL at 20.
Suzuki entered NHL at 20.
Caufield got his first 10 NHL games at 19.
Guhle entered NHL at 20.
Xhekaj entered NHL at 21.
Harris got his first 10 NHL games at 22.

All these guys were playing hockey before they got to the NHL, in developmental leagues. They were not ready at 18 or 19, except for Caufield.

 

[417]

4 of them played more than 150 games in the NHL ? 3 more than 200. 2 more than 290. So, despite one of the worst development and drafting teams in the league at the time, the AHL still provided warm bodies. Great point !

Based on the amount of games they played there and the theories advanced here, you'd think there would have been a lot more games played there.

But I mean, ok lol

 

[Andrei79]

It is convenient how we always wax poetically about the few who spend a year or two down in the AHL and come out great NHL players because of it.

But totally ignore the large majority of them who play down there for years and never amount to anything though.

Because it's irrelevant. It's quite literally the nature of the beast that going through every league under the NHL will have most players never amount to anything.

Based on how people think the AHL works here, it's a wonder why Charles Hudon is still toiling away in the AHL despite all of that success he had in the AHL.

Who said anything about lying about their mission...of course that's why they exist.

I'm not sure why you thought copy and pasting it would bring anything to the discussion.

Huh ? Because a poster said that "That is not why the AHL exist." ? It's not that far, it's on the previous page.

 

[nhlfan9191]

And many didn't or barely.

Gallagher
Price
Suzuki
Caufield
Guhle
Xhekaj
Harris

The players on this list didn’t make the NHL as teenagers so I’m confused on why they’re being used in any comparison to Slafkovsky. You questioned in the past what players can learn from the CHL and how their play would translate when they have to play against men, but everyone you listed is a prime example of why the CHL is a good development league and why it does have value.

 

[417]

Gallagher played half a season in the AHL, entered NHL at age 20.

He played 36 games total and it was because of the lockout.

Price played 12 AHL games, entered NHL at 20.
Suzuki entered NHL at 20.
Caufield got his first 10 NHL games at 19.
Guhle entered NHL at 20.
Xhekaj entered NHL at 21.
Harris got his first 10 NHL games at 22.

All these guys were playing hockey before they got to the NHL, in developmental leagues. They were not ready at 18 or 19, except for Caufield.

None of this has anything to do with what we are currently discussing. The discussion at hand if whether or not the AHL is this super developmental power that churns out NHL players.

 

[Andrei79]

Based on the amount of games they played there and the theories advanced here, you'd think there would have been a lot more games played there.

But I mean, ok lol

Which are what ?

 

[DAChampion]

Because it's irrelevant. It's quite literally the nature of the beast that going through every league under the NHL will have most players who never amount to anything.

The majority of 16 years in the OHL never make the NHL, ergo, the OHL is a terrible development league.

 

[Jaynki]

I can't believe MSL is happy with Slafkovsky achieving a simple pass here and there.

 

[cave troll]

Before going back to the main point, i just want to point that you are excellent to exposes your biases. You have some personal beef with Slaf/Bobrov/Gorton.

Now, back on the 4 former bust, the fact that young players experiment parabolic growth, is not a certitude. Its simply a good statistical bet because it happens, i don't have the data, i would guess 99% of the time. Now obviously, experiencing growth is not a guarantee of NHL success either. Every player will experiment it but most of them will fall short of the NHL, which is the harsh reality of pro hockey.

I don't know what happened specifically to those 4 cherry picked player. Exponential growth does not tell either about how high or low it will end. Just that we can speculate on a young player progressing and that we may end up surprised.

Now, when we talk about a 19 years old CHLer or NCAA player. Maybe there is higher odds he fall short and its safer to short term.

But when shorting a full time 19YO NHLer, know that you are betting on statistical outlier (stagnation) and that the upside may go totally against you. These are the most explosive, promising assets. And i am not talking about Slaf. Just don't bet against a 2022-2023 draftee who is an NHL regular now, by wanting to look like a genius, you might end up HFhabs biggest fool.

Hey. it was you who wrote about parabolical-exponential growth between 19-23 as a some kind of certainity.
I can pick you 10 time more of high pick players which growth wasn't good enough for NHL ot it was just enough to become a fringe NHL-er. They were all definetly better at 23 than they were at 17, but still not good enough.
And like I said, we're talking about 1OA, not about some 7th rounder who was tossed into NHL and now we're watching if he is capable of passing the puck. You're all watching Slaf like he is some kind of 7th round pick.
When a team drafts 1OA they draft a player with a goal that that player will become a franchise player.
90% of those show franchise skill and potential the moment they join NHL. So let me name you some 1OA franchise players or 1OA which became top NHL players: Ovechkin, Crosby, Kane, Stamkos, Tavares, Hall, MacKinnon, Ekblad, McDavid,Matthews, Dahlin, Hughes, Bedard.
Unfotunately for us, Slaf belongs in that 10% who showed nothing when they joined NHL.
We can all hope he belongs into category of good long term NHL players like Nuge or Hirschier which would be a huge jackpot for us considering how thing are going with him now.

 

[417]

Because it's irrelevant. It's quite literally the nature of the beast that going through every league under the NHL will have most players who never amount to anything.

It's not irrelevant because whenever the opposite presents itself, it's always used as a reason. So you can't have it both ways.

Huh ? Because a poster said that "That is not why the AHL exist." ? It's not that far, it's on the previous page.

Yes, i'm aware of why you copy and pasted their mission statement...just not sure why you thought that would really provide an effective rebuttal. It's not lol.

Again, how the AHL defines it's "graduates" is very loose. If you want to cite "cooked" numbers, by all means.

Some of us fruit that's not so low hanging.

The players on this list didn’t make the NHL as teenagers so I’m confused on why they’re being used in any comparison to Slafkovsky. You questioned in the past what players can learn from the CHL and how their play would translate when they have to play against men, but everyone you listed is a prime example of why the CHL is a good development league and why it does have value.

They weren't...you weren't following the course of that discussion, which is fine.

But I encourage you to read why I posted that, it had nothing to do with Slafkovsky.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Sorry just looked at regular season games.

Btw it wasn't 36 games it was 2 regular season games and then 22 playoff games which culminated in a Calder Cup win. Surely the trigger to what became a great career. Yawn.

Remove him from that list if it helps you digest the main argument.

The main argument was that the AHL isn’t a valuable development tool as it’s just a replacement-player league.

listing a handful of players who didn’t play significant time there doesn’t do a lot to support that argument. We all know there are players who bypass the AHL.

 

[417]

The majority of 16 years in the OHL never make the NHL, ergo, the OHL is a terrible development league.

I mean, cool attempt at being coy...but that's not even remotely what I was suggesting.

Not shocking though, God forbid anyone challenge commonly believed hockey lore lol

 

[cave troll]

Gallagher played half a season in the AHL, entered NHL at age 20.
Price played 12 AHL games, entered NHL at 20.
Suzuki entered NHL at 20.
Caufield got his first 10 NHL games at 19.
Guhle entered NHL at 20.
Xhekaj entered NHL at 21.
Harris got his first 10 NHL games at 22.

All these guys were playing hockey before they got to the NHL, in developmental leagues. They were not ready at 18 or 19, except for Caufield.

Not a single one of those were 1OA picks. Some weren't even drafted.
Let's see at what average age 1OA picks joined NHL. I'll say, the vast majority at age 18 and 19.

 

[417]

Which are what ?

Did you just join the conversation? I'm not going to hold your hand...keep up, or fall back my guy.

 

[Jaynki]

Hey. it was you who wrote about parabolical-exponential growth between 19-23 as a some kind of certainity.
I can pick you 10 time more of high pick players which growth wasn't good enough for NHL ot it was just enough to become a fringe NHL-er. They were all definetly better at 23 than they were at 17, but still not good enough.
And like I said, we're talking about 1OA, not about some 7th rounder who was tossed into NHL and now we're watching if he is capable of passing the puck. You're all watching Slaf like he is some kind of 7th round pick.
When a team drafts 1OA they draft a player with a goal that that player will become a franchise player.
90% of those show franchise skill and potential the moment they join NHL. So let me name you some 1OA franchise players or 1OA which became top NHL players: Ovechkin, Crosby, Kane, Stamkos, Tavares, Hall, MacKinnon, Ekblad, McDavid,Matthews, Dahlin, Hughes, Bedard.
Unfotunately for us, Slaf belongs in that 10% who showed nothing when they joined NHL.
We can all hope he belongs into category of good long term NHL players like Nuge or Hirschier which would be a huge jackpot for us considering how thing are going with him now.

I agree Slafkovksy is not of your typical 1st overall caliber. Sad but its the harsh reality of tanking too.

He is still a blue-chip prospect.

 

[Canad13ns]

He played 36 games total and it was because of the lockout.

None of this has anything to do with what we are currently discussing. The discussion at hand if whether or not the AHL is this super developmental power that churns out NHL players.

I thought you promised to give up policing the discussion?

My point here is that players do develop effectively in leagues that are less fast than the NHL. You have argued essentially that lower-level competition makes you worse, that the habit of being not good enough is reinforced in the AHL. Maybe you are talking specifically about the AHL and not other developmental leagues, but there are years of pedagogical research supporting the notion that matching the challenge to the person's capabilities, so they can reach and succeed rather than reach and fail, is more effective in fuelling development than giving challenges that the person is not adequately prepared for.

St. Louis/HuGo think the optimal challenge for Slaf right now is in the NHL, that he has the ability to develop there. A lot of us watching think he's not ready. Apart from the challenge aspect, there's the media spotlight which makes the NHL worse.

You have called for more "productive" discussion but none of what we discuss is productive in the sense that none of what we say here affects what happens. We're just passing time talking about a team that interests us.

 

[417]

The main argument was that the AHL isn’t a valuable development tool as it’s just a replacement-player league.

Correct...which was a side debate to the Slafkovsky question specifically.

First off, I didn't say that the AHL is not a valuable developmental tool...there is value there for players who just don't have a seat to sit in, IN the NHL.

However, it IS for all purposes, mostly a replacement-level league.

The MAJORITY of AHL players are replacement-level players. I'm not sure this is even arguable.

listing a handful of players who didn’t play significant time there doesn’t do a lot to support that argument. We all know there are players who bypass the AHL.

Of course it does, it clearly proves that the AHL isn't some must-have developmental stop for most players.

It's not.

Take the example of Brendan Gallagher, he played 36 AHL games because of the lockout...if no lockout, he probably makes the Habs right out of camp. He wen to the AHL because there was nowhere else for him to play.

That doesn't mean that the AHL isn't very useful for other players...a guy like Joshua Roy, that's an example where the AHL probably could have been useful for him even last year, instead of racking up points in the Q where it was easy, he should have been in the AHL playing against pros like he is this year.

 

[Andrei79]

It's not irrelevant because whenever the opposite presents itself, it's always used as a reason. So you can't have it both ways.

I'm not going to lie, I don't even understand what this is supposed to mean. It sounds incoherent to me.

Yes, i'm aware of why you copy and pasted their mission statement...just not sure why you thought that would really provide an effective rebuttal. It's not lol.

Again, how the AHL defines it's "graduates" is very loose. If you want to cite "cooked" numbers, by all means.

Some of us fruit that's not so low hanging.

If you look at the cup winning Avalanche, their 2nd highest scoring and both 5th highest scoring (tied) players in the playoffs spent significant AHL time. One of those has scored 100 points in a season, another 87 and the other is a top20D in the league. Out of all of their players that year, only 3 spent their D+1 in the NHL, one of which had to go back to an lesser league for a significant time. The norm is spending your teenage years outside of the NHL. The AHL is has a proven record and is likely the best pro league as far as preparing players for the NHL. It's even in their mission statement.

Did you just join the conversation? I'm not going to hold your hand...keep up, or fall back my guy.

I'm asking you because it seems you have a different interpretation of what's being said. You seem to be going off an altogether different premise.

 

[Canad13ns]

Not a single one of those were 1OA picks. Some weren't even drafted.
Let's see at what average age 1OA picks joined NHL. I'll say, the vast majority at age 18 and 19.

My post wasn't about 1OA picks. I specifically used the list of players the previous poster used to argue that the AHL isn't necessary for development. My point is that players are going to develop somewhere and most good players develop in developmental leagues. Yes most 1OA's go straight to the NHL, a point I already agreed with in my response to your earlier post. But Slaf is not a typical 1OA, he was just the 1OA in his draft year, which so far has looked pretty underwhelming.

 

[Ozmodiar]

The majority of 16 years in the OHL never make the NHL, ergo, the OHL is a terrible development league.

For many, their hockey career just fizzles out.

 

[417]

I thought you promised to give up policing the discussion?

I didn't promise anything, I said it was not my intent to police the discussion and I don't think I have.

But you're conflating two different discussions.

My point here is that players do develop effectively in leagues that are less fast than the NHL. You have argued essentially that lower-level competition makes you worse, that the habit of being not good enough is reinforced in the AHL. Maybe you are talking specifically about the AHL and not other developmental leagues, but there are years of pedagogical research supporting the notion that matching the challenge to the person's capabilities, so they can reach and succeed rather than reach and fail, is more effective.

That's simply not true...

Again, you're conflating a specific argument about Slafkovsky and applying it generally....I did no such thing.

Clearly, you DO need policing as it relates to your posts because you're disgenuously steering conversations where they shouldn't be going.

St. Louis/HuGo think the optimal challenge for Slaf right now is in the NHL, that he has the ability to develop there. A lot of us watching think he's not ready. Apart from the challenge aspect, there's the media spotlight which makes the NHL worse.

Correct

You have called for more "productive" discussion but none of what we discuss is productive in the sense that none of what we say here affects what happens. We're just passing time talking about a team that interests us.

I've had a lot of fun discussing how the AHL is viewed on the margins of the discussion about Slafkovsky.

I'm sorry you don't feel the same, but try actually following the discussion, it might help.