Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[Andrei79]

We are not supposed to be amazed no. Nothing he has done has been amazing.

I agree on this.

But let's wait. We don't know if he will experiment a surge in performance. We can rationally expect it. When or if he experiments it, we don't know how high or low it might end up.

We are in a point where its safer to bet on upside than short him tho.



CHL players can't go to the AHL before their D+3. The best of the best will have exceptions like Wright or make the jump straight up to the NHL.

NCAA players can't sign pro contract. The best of the NCAA will turn pro and jump instantly in the NHL.

European players can't play in the AHL if they are not first RD picks. That is where there will be an exception and we will see top prospects go to the AHL. Slafkovsky would have fitted on that category.

Considering those facts, top prospects who has to go through the AHL are the outliers, not the norm. When a player is in the AHL in his D+3, especially a forward, he is not trending to be a top 6 forward in the NHL. There is statistical outlier and even frequent occurence. (~20% from my rough calculations) but in most cases, AHL is for depth players and replacement level vet. Whatever is written on its website.

I don't think you understand either the AHL or what an outlier is. Even if we were talking about 20%, which we aren't, 20% is not even close to being an outlier. We aren't talking about a D+3 player either in Slafkovsky. We're talking about where he should have been in his D+1 and D+2. If you look at last years draft, 3 of the top 6 played in the AHL. If you look at the top 20 scorers this year, 9 of them spent time in the AHL. If you look at the NHL as a whole, 82% of them did. If the CHL and NCAA allowed players to sign pro contracts or play there, the numbers you're referring to (which are wrong), would be much higher.

 

[417]

Many of the best Habs ' development stories of the 21st century played in the AHL for an extensive period:

Plekanec
Subban
Pacioretty

And many didn't or barely.

Gallagher
Price
Suzuki
Caufield
Guhle
Xhekaj
Harris

 

[Canad13ns]

Sure he is. But can you name us at least three 1OA who came to NHL 3 years after being drafted.
When I look at 1OA, I see that 95+% of them went to NHL straight after being drafted and 90% of them succeded.
So, is Slaf a 1OA material or just a young big guy who one day could become a good NHL-er?
If we look at him as 1OA he is a big disappointment heading into bust territory. If he look at him as just one regular big guy who fight for an NHL spot, then I'll say, he's OK for now.
But, the question comes..on who we wasted the 1OA?

Yes, most 1OA's go straight to the NHL and are in a different league from the rest of their draft class at 18. Most people would say ours was a weak draft year. The consensus #1 pick was Wright. The fury after the pick was from people who wanted Wright (not Cooley). Wright is not in a different league from his peers, and neither is Cooley, so instead we have a bunch of guys in the top 10 none of whom are dominating.

So yeah, if your point is we did not get a 1OA that looks like the typical and dreamed of 1OA, I agree. But it's not clear to me that Slaf was not the right pick among the available options, and personally I think we won't know for a few years.

 

[cave troll]

Were those players rushed?

Were they?
Andersson was rushed to AHL? Or Kravtsov?
Should they being developed in ECHL?
Kakko came to NHL after scoring 4 time more goals then Slaf in Liiga at the same age.
Was he rushed and if he is rushed, should have Slaf stayed in Liiga 2-3 more years until he proved he is capable of producing at Kakko levels?
Laf? You tell us. Should he have stayed in Q 2 more years?

 

[DAChampion]

And many didn't or barely.

Gallagher
Price
Suzuki
Caufield
Guhle
Xhekaj
Harris

Every single name you mention -- every single one -- had years of development outside the NHL.

It would have been fine for Slafkovsky to spend another year in Finland.

 

[Andrei79]

Yes like Cole Caufield for example.

Whose played a total of 8 AHL games.

Example of an “alumni”.

And if you look at Laval, 9 of their roster players + Dobes are there for development purposes. It's quite literally the reason why that league exists.

 

[417]

"The AHL serves as the top development league for the National Hockey League"

"In the AHL, player development is a top priority"

This is straight out of the AHLs website.

There is even a development rule :

Of those 13 (players), twelve (12) must have played in 260 or fewer professional games (including AHL, NHL and European elite leagues), and one must have played in 320 or fewer professional games

The AHL literally exists for the reasons I mentioned.

I mean cool mission statement.

What else are they supposed to say?

“the AHL is top league for the not-quite-good-enough-for-the-NHL league”

?

Every single name you mention -- every single one -- had years of development outside the NHL.

It would have been fine for Slafkovsky to spend another year in Finland.

The question was about the AHL

NOT what these players did outside of it.

 

[Andrei79]

I mean cool mission statement.

What else are they supposed to say?

“the AHL is top league for the not-quite-good-enough-for-the-NHL league”

?

Did you post this thinking it would add value to whatever you're arguing ?

 

[417]

And if you look at Laval, 9 of their roster players + Dobes are there for development purposes. It's quite literally the reason why that league exists.

Yes correct and the majority of those 9 will never make it to Montreal or maybe the NHL period.

Most of them will end up career minor leaguers, move to Europe, or will be constantly shuttled between the NHL/AHL.

 

[Jaynki]

Is it now?
Let me mention you 4 Top10 golden boys by Gorton/Bobrov:
Lias Andersson
Vitaliy Kravtsov
Kapo Kaako
Alexis Laferniere
Show us their exponential-parabolic growth and then think about why Gorton and Bobrov got canned by the Rags.

Before going back to the main point, i just want to point that you are excellent to exposes your biases. You have some personal beef with Slaf/Bobrov/Gorton.

Now, back on the 4 former bust, the fact that young players experiment parabolic growth, is not a certitude. Its simply a good statistical bet because it happens, i don't have the data, i would guess 99% of the time. Now obviously, experiencing growth is not a guarantee of NHL success either. Every player will experiment it but most of them will fall short of the NHL, which is the harsh reality of pro hockey.

I don't know what happened specifically to those 4 cherry picked player. Exponential growth does not tell either about how high or low it will end. Just that we can speculate on a young player progressing and that we may end up surprised.

Now, when we talk about a 19 years old CHLer or NCAA player. Maybe there is higher odds he fall short and its safer to short term.

But when shorting a full time 19YO NHLer, know that you are betting on statistical outlier (stagnation) and that the upside may go totally against you. These are the most explosive, promising assets. And i am not talking about Slaf. Just don't bet against a 2022-2023 draftee who is an NHL regular now, by wanting to look like a genius, you might end up HFhabs biggest fool.

 

[417]

Did you post this thinking it would add value to whatever you're arguing ?

I don’t know…seemed like an appropriate response to you copy and pasting a mission statement like it was supposed to mean something.

 

[Jaynki]

Tell that to the AHL alum turned NHL HOF’er behind the bench. Almost 100 AHL games.

Right.

Might it give us a clue that he knows what he is doing with Slafkovsky ?

I don't think you understand either the AHL or what an outlier is. Even if we were talking about 20%, which we aren't, 20% is not even close to being an outlier. We aren't talking about a D+3 player either in Slafkovsky. We're talking about where he should have been in his D+1 and D+2. If you look at last years draft, 3 of the top 6 played in the AHL. If you look at the top 20 scorers this year, 9 of them spent time in the AHL. If you look at the NHL as a whole, 82% of them did. If the CHL and NCAA allowed players to sign pro contracts or play there, the numbers you're referring to (which are wrong), would be much higher.

I agree on those. I specifically said that the AHL served as development for European 1st RD pick but depth and plugs for the rest (mainly)

 

[HabsForHire]

82% of the NHL are AHL alumni. Last year, it was 87%.

But carry on.

seriously, the nhl is not a development league. while montreal brass seems to always think it is...are there "forever" ahl guys ? sure. but the ahl is where you should be developing your high picks. people here thinking it's the opposite are out to lunch

 

[Jaynki]

And if you look at Laval, 9 of their roster players + Dobes are there for development purposes. It's quite literally the reason why that league exists.

How many will make it as NHL regulars or are trending to be ?

 

[DAChampion]

Right.

Might it give us a clue that he knows what he is doing with Slafkovsky ?

It might, but brilliant, wise men make mistakes all of the time.

 

[Ozmodiar]

And many didn't or barely.

Gallagher
Price
Suzuki
Caufield
Guhle
Xhekaj
Harris

Carey Price, barely.
Just 36 games leading up to a Calder Cup win and playoff MVP award. lol

 

[Andrei79]

Yes correct and the majority of those 9 will never make it to Montreal or maybe the NHL period.

Most of them will end up career minor leaguers, move to Europe, or will be constantly shuttled between the NHL/AHL.

Yes. This is how professional leagues work in every sport. Only the very few make them. Soccer clubs will still invest in their academies and development despite most not making it. Hockey clubs do the same. They even have a league where they can focus on it.

I don’t know…seemed like an appropriate response to you copy and pasting a mission statement like it was supposed to mean something.

You know, this isn't an oil company's mission statement. It's a sports entity with a clear reason for existing,. Why would they lie about their mission ? Why would they create a rule enforcing it ?

 

[Jaynki]

seriously, the nhl is not a development league. while montreal brass seems to always think it is...are there "forever" ahl guys ? sure. but the ahl is where you should be developing your high picks. people here thinking it's the opposite are out to lunch

Except look at every team top 6 and tell me how many of them was developped in the AHL.

 

[DAChampion]

How many will make it as NHL regulars or are trending to be ?

I think Roy, Farrell, Struble, Mailloux, Dobes each have a legitimate shot.

 

[Jaynki]

It might, but brilliant, wise men make mistakes all of the time.

I agree.

Should we at least gave them the benefit of the doubt and a fair leash before going balls deep into thinking that they are ruining and rushing our top prospects or its appropriate to conclude right now that its a mistake?

 

[417]

In 2013-14 the Hamilton Bulldogs boasted the following players in development

Joonas Naatinen, Sven Andrighetto, Greg Pateryn, Morgan Ellis, Louis Leblanc, Nathan Beaulieu, Jared Tinordi, Magnus Nygren, Gabriel Dumont, Erik Nystrom, Darren Dietz.

Tons of drafted prospects by the Montreal Canadiens….wonder what happened to those guys.

 

[Jaynki]

I think Roy, Farrell, Struble, Mailloux, Dobes each have a legitimate shot.

Agree.

As top 6 players/top 3d or as depth player?

 

[DAChampion]

I agree.

Should we at least gave them the benefit of the doubt and a fair leash before going balls deep into thinking that they are ruining and rushing our top prospects or its appropriate to conclude right now that its a mistake?

It's just an opinion board, if I was Molson I'd probably give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

[morhilane]

Lets spark some controversy...

 

[417]

Carey Price, barely.
Just 36 games leading up to a Calder Cup win and playoff MVP award. lol

Sorry just looked at regular season games.

Btw it wasn't 36 games it was 2 regular season games and then 22 playoff games which culminated in a Calder Cup win. Surely the trigger to what became a great career. Yawn.

Remove him from that list if it helps you digest the main argument.