Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[Jaynki]

1-sarcasm
2-you didnt name the player with parabolic, exponential growth

Since you take my term in mockery (i appreciate it btw), lets talk about it further.

Axis X is number of games played
Axis Y is performance.

Thornton from 7 points in 55 games to 41 in 81.

Draisaitl from 7 in 37 to 51 in 72.

Dubois D+2, 5 pts first 25 games, 43 in 57 games to end the season.

Hughes from 31 pts in 56 games to 56 points in 49 games.

You can even do the exercice with junior player and you will see the same type of surge.

Is this normal, linear, predictable growth?

Or are those examples of parabolic, exponential growth curve?

Its the phenomenom with young players. Its the opposite phenomenom with old players.

People are ready to call Slaf a bust, and some folks would take Huberdeau with retention or for Gally and Anderson. Go figure why. Thats is going against every logic and rationality.

Its so shortsighted to call a 19 years old a bust when he might be just on the verge of experiencing it. By wanting to look like a genius, taking such a reckless bet might just yield the absolute opposite result.

Its irrelevant here if we like Slaf or not, if we would have taken Cooley or Nemec or Wright, if we think Slafkovsky should be in the AHL.

The cold hard fact is that shorting a 19 years old who has 53 NHL games under his belt is shorting the most explosive, promising type of assets in hockey. Such a dumb, shortsighted bet.

Lets at least wait a proper moment to do it.

 

[417]

Fair, so I'll answer your question: I do think the gap between top pace in hockey (NHL) and what he can do warrants the help of a "third wheel" for a short while, just so he can have the feel of the game on his stick, So... yes, I genuinely believe there's an advantage for his growth by going at a lil slower pace to get his markers down.... and unleash that shot which he might be using only in practice these days and that bothers me.

See I think the opposite that the slower pace of the AHL will actually reinforce the bad habits he has because he can get away with them there.

Now, you see eye to eye with mngmt, so I do believe you are right; they believe in the more "deep end" approach to the thing. I'm guessing they feel the growth between last year's play and this season comforts them. Just not my bag, but it's ok.

It's not about seeing eye to eye with management because I've got back and forth on this, earlier this week I was advocating for him to be sent down purely for confidence but the last 2 games have been encouraging, so maybe he's not as fragile as I or many think.

Generally speaking, I think we’re overthinking it. He's gaining a ton of experience right now and all of it IS good.

I don't think him being in the NHL right now is counter-productive at all because if we ignore all of the noise (aka comparisons, stat watching, etc) there are noticeable gains in his game.

 

[Andrei79]

I wanted to ask at what point those who support the status quo would change their mind and support Slafkovsky playing in the AHL.

And then I realized when they would change their minds.

A few seconds after seeing a thread that the Habs have moved Slafkovsky to the AHL.

It's interesting because even management made a comment on how he now has to face professional level play and adapt to it, which is hard for a teenager... Then why not do it in a more adapted environnement ? This is exactly why the AHL exists.

 

[Jaynki]

It sounds like you think he is too small to be a 1C. Is that what you are saying? Do you think Suzuki is a 1C? Because they have 1inch difference. Just curious to clarify your position.

I don't think Cooley as 1C upside. I don't think Suzuki is a 1C either and i think that is probably the tier of Cooley and Wright ceiling, which is excellent.

Suzuki for me is a B-type of 1C and i think he could be the 1C of a contender if the other centerman is of similar caliber.

Thats unless he has another gear we havent seen.

He probably won’t but we don’t know.

Cooley has the higher offensive upside but Slafkovsky has more, like you said, unique attributes which should help teams win more games in the playoffs (but that is just an assumption management has made and we don’t know if his special attributes will in fact weight heavier then Cooley’s offensive production.)

One thing is for sure, when someone tries to reinvent the wheel, they have much more chances of failing then if they followed a proven path, and that is not Slafkovsky’s fault.

Agree for your first two paragraph.

For the third we will see. Personally, those thing about the pedigree and AHL games are used for people to validate their biases. Tkachuk had a grinder pedigree and Zadina had a huge scorer pedigree. Zadina also had many AHL games.

KK was rushed and he is going for his ceiling.

The biggest variable in play, in my opinion, is pure talent.

 

[Redux91]

Thought he had a strong game honestly, a lot more games vs boston can do him wonders

But it'd definitely be nice to get a bit more on the board too..

 

[417]

Something has to give with Slafkovsky, but until it does we're forced to recycle the same opinions and wait to be proven right or wrong. Personally, I think he should be sent down, but I've already said that, which I admit is boring.

I don't think that's true…because even when he plays well, we’re still stuck discussing the same washed take over and over again, rather than discuss the game he actually had.

We could place a bunch of orange cones over this thread saying, "Temporarily Closed for Development", but that would just increase traffic in the other threads.

Or we can just engage in more fruitful discussion based on what's actually happening, when it's happening.

Again, I think we’ve become so dug in this position that “he should be in the AHL”, we’re missing some of the positive things he is doing on the ice.



Again, maybe that's not fair of me and I promise my intent is not to police the discussion. I’m just trying to promote a different talking point.

 

[Jaynki]

It's interesting because even management made a comment on how he now has to face professional level play and adapt to it, which is hard for a teenager... Then why not do it in a more adapted environnement ? This is exactly why the AHL exists.

That is not why the AHL exist.

Simply put, its a league where the replacement-level player play.

Its a league where many, many player will see there career die too. Tough, sad league.

 

[cave troll]

Since you take my term in mockery (i appreciate it btw), lets talk about it further.

Axis X is number of games played
Axis Y is performance.

Thornton from 7 points in 55 games to 41 in 81.

Draisaitl from 7 in 37 to 51 in 72.

Dubois D+2, 5 pts first 25 games, 43 in 57 games to end the season.

Hughes from 31 pts in 56 games to 56 points in 49 games.

You can even do the exercice with junior player and you will see the same type of surge.

Is this normal, linear, predictable growth?

No.
For 1OA it's not.
Slaf has 2 pts in last 29 games. He is in a big black hole after a promising start in NHL.
That black hole is so big that 1OA is judged by if he is capable of passing the puck and of battling on the boards. It's like we drafted McCarron as 1OA and now we watch if he is even capable of playing in NHL.
You're just cherrypicking few high draft picks to prove that's the way top picks progress while the reality is a total opposite. 90% of 1OA picks made an impact the moment they joined NHL. From their first shift it was: Yes, that's the guy !

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

No.
For 1OA it's not.
Slaf has 2 pts in last 29 games. He is in a big black hole after a promising start in NHL.
That black hole is so big that 1OA is judged by if he is capable of passing the puck and of battling on the boards. It's like we drafted McCarron as 1OA and now we watch if he is even capable of playing in NHL.
You're just cherrypicking few high draft picks to prove that's the way top picks progress while the reality is a total opposite. 90% of 1OA picks made an impact the moment they joined NHL. From their first shift it was: Yes, that's the guy !

And some drafts suck. 1999 was one, 2012 another… it doesn’t matter if you have first overall if the draft itself sucks. As I’ve said for a while now the ‘not acceptable for a number one’ is ridiculous when you don’t consider the draft itself.

We are barely out the gates and youve got guys declaring this player or that one is better. It’s so stupid. We won’t know who was the best pick in the draft for years to come. And it could turn out to be someone completely off the board.

 

[Jaynki]

No.
For 1OA it's not.
Slaf has 2 pts in last 29 games. He is in a big black hole after a promising start in NHL.
That black hole is so big that 1OA is judged by if he is capable of passing the puck and of battling on the boards. It's like we drafted McCarron as 1OA and now we watch if he is even capable of playing in NHL.
You're just cherrypicking few high draft picks to prove that's the way top picks progress while the reality is a total opposite. 90% of 1OA picks made an impact the moment they joined NHL. From their first shift it was: Yes, that's the guy !

You are missing the point and you are the one cherrypicking stats and draft spot and exposing your biaises.

Roy was a 5th rounder he went from 35points in 35games to 118 points in 66 games. Parabolic, exponential growth.

Do you need more example? Hutson? Guhle?

Its a phenomenom for every single young player. Those that dont have this growth are anomaly. Some will experiment this growth and wont have NHL career because ultimate lack of talent. But its still a phenomenom with young player.

Now, a 19 years old full time NHLer who have yet to experiment the curve are the most promising, explosive assets. Short them at your own risk for your misleading stats and subjective biases.

 

[417]

That is not why the AHL exist.

Simply put, its a league where the replacement-level player play.

Its a league where many, many player will see there career die too. Tough, sad league.

This!

People swear teams are just housing a ton of top prospects there though.

 

[Ozmodiar]

No.
For 1OA it's not.
Slaf has 2 pts in last 29 games. He is in a big black hole after a promising start in NHL.
That black hole is so big that 1OA is judged by if he is capable of passing the puck and of battling on the boards. It's like we drafted McCarron as 1OA and now we watch if he is even capable of playing in NHL.
You're just cherrypicking few high draft picks to prove that's the way top picks progress while the reality is a total opposite. 90% of 1OA picks made an impact the moment they joined NHL. From their first shift it was: Yes, that's the guy !

Yeah, usually something pops right away that shows you why they were 1OA. They might lack consistency or strength or defensive reliability, but you get a good glimpse into the future.

Even looking at #2 and 3 of the last draft. Carlsson and Fantilli. We know already they’ll be good players after just a handful of games.

 

[Paddy17]

Since the game with Suzuki and Caufield, I can say that the eye test sees a much improved Slaf. It could just be his goal that infused some confidence back into him, but he's much more involved and has been helping his linemates. He's less "watching and wondering", and albeit small, that's a significant improvement given his skillset.

He needs to have an even more agressive mentality and he needs to shoot instead of always passing. Other than that, I think he's coming along nicely and he's not far from "getting it". Bear in mind he doesn't have 60 NHL games yet under his belt. We'll see where he's at past the 40-game mark this season.

 

[cave troll]

You are missing the point and you are the one cherrypicking stats and draft spot and exposing your biaises.

Roy was a 5th rounder he went from 35points in 35games to 118 points in 66 games. Parabolic, exponential growth.

Do you need more example? Hutson? Guhle?

Its a phenomenom for every single young player. Those that dont have this growth are anomaly. Some will experiment this growth and wont have NHL career because ultimate lack of talent. But its still a phenomenom with young player.

Now, a 19 years old full time NHLer who have yet to experiment the curve are the most promising, explosive assets. Short them at your own risk for your misleading stats and subjective biases.

Dude, you're comparing player's growth in junior hockey to 1OA hockey skill.
Yes, 1OA player grow too when they join NHL. The majority of them grow from rookie season of 40-70 pts to 100+ pts seasons and being a franchise players.

 

[cave troll]

Yeah, usually something pops right away that shows you why they were 1OA. They might lack consistency or strength or defensive reliability, but you get a good glimpse into the future.

Even looking at #2 and 3 of the last draft. Carlsson and Fantilli. We know already they’ll be good players after just a handful of games.

And I'm sure nobody watches them and praise them for being able to pass the puck to his linemates.
Carlsson has his struggles, yes. And then he shows balls and scores a hattrick.

 

[Jaynki]

Dude, you're comparing player's growth in junior hockey to 1OA hockey skill.
Yes, 1OA player grow too when they join NHL. The majority of them grow from rookie season of 40-70 pts to 100+ pts seasons and being a franchise players.

I am just saying that young players experiment exponential, parabolic growth especially age 19-23.

I have provided evidence from absolute top prospects to 5th rounder to illustrate my point. I have not made any comparison.

I will say it again, shorting a full time NHLer who is 19 years old is incredibly short sighted. Do it at your own perils.

Personally, i am not shorting any of Slaf, Cooley, Wright, Poitras, Mintyukov, Nemec, Jiricek right now.

 

[RationalExpectations]

You are missing the point and you are the one cherrypicking stats and draft spot and exposing your biaises.

Roy was a 5th rounder he went from 35points in 35games to 118 points in 66 games. Parabolic, exponential growth.

Do you need more example? Hutson? Guhle?

Its a phenomenom for every single young player. Those that dont have this growth are anomaly. Some will experiment this growth and wont have NHL career because ultimate lack of talent. But its still a phenomenom with young player.

Now, a 19 years old full time NHLer who have yet to experiment the curve are the most promising, explosive assets. Short them at your own risk for your misleading stats and subjective biases.

I am not selling him short but I think the main point of the post before is key : HuGo have managed expectations so well that part of the fan base is happy with Slaf making a tape to tape pass or winning a board battle per game.

There must be some middle ground where the guy is not a bust after 50 NHL games but he is not a superstar with elite IQ because he has one good play per game. As fans we are supposed to be amazed by 2 points in 14 games. This is just crazy !

 

[Andrei79]

That is not why the AHL exist.

Simply put, its a league where the replacement-level player play.

Its a league where many, many player will see there career die too. Tough, sad league.

"The AHL serves as the top development league for the National Hockey League"

"In the AHL, player development is a top priority"

This is straight out of the AHLs website.

There is even a development rule :

Of those 13 (players), twelve (12) must have played in 260 or fewer professional games (including AHL, NHL and European elite leagues), and one must have played in 320 or fewer professional games

The AHL literally exists for the reasons I mentioned.

 

[Andrei79]

This!

People swear teams are just housing a ton of top prospects there though.

82% of the NHL are AHL alumni. Last year, it was 87%.

But carry on.

 

[cave troll]

I am just saying that young players experiment exponential, parabolic growth especially age 19-23.

I have provided evidence from absolute top prospects to 5th rounder to illustrate my point. I have not made any comparison.

I will say it again, shorting a full time NHLer who is 19 years old is incredibly short sighted. Do it at your own perils.

Personally, i am not shorting any of Slaf, Cooley, Wright, Poitras, Mintyukov, Nemec, Jiricek right now.

Is it now?
Let me mention you 4 Top10 golden boys by Gorton/Bobrov:
Lias Andersson
Vitaliy Kravtsov
Kapo Kaako
Alexis Laferniere
Show us their exponential-parabolic growth and then think about why Gorton and Bobrov got canned by the Rags.

 

[DAChampion]

Is it now?
Let me mention you 4 Top10 golden boys by Gorton/Bobrov:
Lias Andersson
Vitaliy Kravtsov
Kapo Kaako
Alexis Laferniere
Show us their exponential-parabolic growth and then think about why Gorton and Bobrov got canned by the Rags.

Were those players rushed?

 

[Jaynki]

I am not selling him short but I think the main point of the post before is key : HuGo have managed expectations so well that part of the fan base is happy with Slaf making a tape to tape pass or winning a board battle per game.

There must be some middle ground where the guy is not a bust after 50 NHL games but he is not a superstar with elite IQ because he has one good play per game. As fans we are supposed to be amazed by 2 points in 14 games. This is just crazy !

We are not supposed to be amazed no. Nothing he has done has been amazing.

I agree on this.

But let's wait. We don't know if he will experiment a surge in performance. We can rationally expect it. When or if he experiments it, we don't know how high or low it might end up.

We are in a point where its safer to bet on upside than short him tho.

"The AHL serves as the top development league for the National Hockey League"

"In the AHL, player development is a top priority"

This is straight out of the AHLs website.

There is even a development rule :

Of those 13 (players), twelve (12) must have played in 260 or fewer professional games (including AHL, NHL and European elite leagues), and one must have played in 320 or fewer professional games

The AHL literally exists for the reasons I mentioned.

CHL players can't go to the AHL before their D+3. The best of the best will have exceptions like Wright or make the jump straight up to the NHL.

NCAA players can't sign pro contract. The best of the NCAA will turn pro and jump instantly in the NHL.

European players can't play in the AHL if they are not first RD picks. That is where there will be an exception and we will see top prospects go to the AHL. Slafkovsky would have fitted on that category.

Considering those facts, top prospects who has to go through the AHL are the outliers, not the norm. When a player is in the AHL in his D+3, especially a forward, he is not trending to be a top 6 forward in the NHL. There is statistical outlier and even frequent occurence. (~20% from my rough calculations) but in most cases, AHL is for depth players and replacement level vet. Whatever is written on its website.

 

[Ozmodiar]

That is not why the AHL exist.

Simply put, its a league where the replacement-level player play.

It’s a league where many, many player will see their career die too. Tough, sad league.

Tell that to the AHL alum turned NHL HOF’er behind the bench. Almost 100 AHL games.

 

[DAChampion]

Many of the best Habs ' development stories of the 21st century played in the AHL for an extensive period:

Plekanec
Subban
Pacioretty

 

[417]

82% of the NHL are AHL alumni. Last year, it was 87%.

But carry on.

Yes like Cole Caufield for example.

Whose played a total of 8 AHL games.

Example of an “alumni”.

Those numbers are cool and and for the low hanging fruit types.