Prospect Info: Joshua Roy Part 2

[DAChampion]

But then you wouldnt take into account that Josh is an outlier age wise in his draft year. Youd have to go by decimal years and months.

Then you'd probably need to run a windsorized mean and even so, is it actually accurate if you do so?

Then how do you modelize for AHL and NHL team depth? Or for Euro players that had to adjust to NHL ice?

You would get a very rudimentary statistic that I am not sure would actually reflect reality. I understand were not completing a peer reviewed statistical analysis here but the quality of such a statistic is heavily influenced by factors well beyond our reach.

That would actually worsen the fit. You don't want to double count variables or overfit in other ways.

 

[jfm133]

About Stéphane Julien, he is the one who really saw what Joshua Roy was at the time everybody were down on him, in fact, the whole NHL scouting community. Six months before being drafted at the end of the 5th round, Julien traded to acquire Roy giving three first round picks and a second round pick. That's a price tag you see for former good first round picks in the NHL. What Julien was willing to give back then showed he had the good read on Roy's potential. So his opinion on Roy should be valued.

 

[Mrb1p]

That would actually worsen the fit. You don't want to double count variables or overfit in other ways.

Yes, which is why we have no statistics that can predict the outcome of player development accurately

 

[NotProkofievian]

Yes, which is why we have no statistics that can predict the outcome of player development accurately

If by accurately you mean ''without error'' then sure. But even simple NHLe alone is predictive of NHL success.

 

[Matthew McConaughay]

There is a tool for that: NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

Based from some tests with that tool, 1 ppg in the AHL is ~0.5 ppg in the NHL.

That's far from an exact science, Jason Robertson had less than 1PPG in the AHL and he just got a 109 points season in the NHL, you can say the same about Jordan Kyrou.

 

[Mrb1p]

If by accurately you mean ''without error'' then sure. But even simple NHLe alone is predictive of NHL success.

I wonder if its cross tested? Its been around for few years but it would still be interesting.

 

[KFlint]

What if he burns the NHL too lol.

Super NHL with Karlsson!

 

[Noble]

Great start to his pro career already. Very encouraging.

 

[danisonfire]

He was a center until the Q where he was moved to the wing (plays both side).

I was going to say the majority of the NHL players, played center until they hit Junior A.

 

[Destopcorner]

Who was the guy here claiming Roy is nothing special because he's starting hid D+3 year in the AHL and got cut before Heineman? He was defending his projection ''model'' with his life but strangely we don't see him around lately.

 

[Matthew McConaughay]

I was going to say the majority of the NHL players, played center until they hit Junior A.

Since he's very good at both ends of the ice, he could very well be good at center.

 

[Skip Bayless]

Who was the guy here claiming Roy is nothing special because he's starting hid D+3 year in the AHL and got cut before Heineman? He was defending his projection ''model'' with his life but strangely we don't see him around lately.

I felt bad for him honestly.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

I felt bad for him honestly.

That's Jeffrey ? Isn't it ?

 

[Gravity]

Former Roy's coach in Sherbrooke Stephane Julien gave an interview to Martin Lemay on Bpm Sports this week and he said:

That ....Roy has already a better hockey IQ than more than 80% NHL players.

Julien helped Roy a lot after his trade from St John to Sherbrooke.

Are there any other interesting tidbits from that interview?

 

[Rapala]

He was not given a proper opportunity. In preseason, he had 0 PP time and no NHL linemates.


Their mind was made up he was starting in the A. Fine by me but if he’s burning it, like you said 10 gp then call him up. We need a meritocratic culture

When Roy gets called up because he will it better be top 6. If he performs at this level he won't be returning it is as simple as that.

 

[Gravity]

Not saying he's as good but Roy gives me Kucherov vibes. Very stealthy and knows how to find open spots with ease. May not be the most visible by the eye test but will show up on the score sheet. If he improves his skating......look out.

 

[BaseballCoach]

When Roy gets called up because he will it better be top 6. If he performs at this level he won't be returning it is as simple as that.

It is very, very rare that this happens in real life. Guys who make it to the NHL usually start out on the 3rd or 4th line. Furthermore if there were a "rule" that you can't bring a player up without him vaulting from the 5th or 6th lne to the 2nd line, most guys would never be promoted.

And reallym if it's ok to play with Armia in Laval, what's wrong with playing with the guys who beat out Armia in your next gig? Why is it a requirement to leap over lots of other players?

 

[Rapala]

It is very, very rare that this happens in real life. Guys who make it to the NHL usually start out on the 3rd or 4th line. Furthermore if there were a "rule" that you can't bring a player up without him vaulting from the 5th or 6th lne to the 2nd line, most guys would never be promoted.

And reallym if it's ok to play with Armia in Laval, what's wrong with playing with the guys who beat out Armia in your next gig? Why is it a requirement to leap over lots of other players?

I'm a firm believer in bringing up a player in the role you want him to play. Good enough for Caufield but not for Roy?

 

[JianYang]

This is all incredibly encouraging, but let's just keep in mind that it has only been 4 games.

He will slow down, he will slump. What I want to see is how he responds when those situations come about.

I'm in no rush whatsoever to see him in the nhl. Of course, there's the selfish part of me that wants to see the shiny new toy in a habs game, but I just don't see the point of it right now. Let him continue to get his feet wet, and foster his environment with a sense of stability. Again, it's been 4 games.

 

[Vachon23]

About Stéphane Julien, he is the one who really saw what Joshua Roy was at the time everybody were down on him, in fact, the whole NHL scouting community. Six months before being drafted at the end of the 5th round, Julien traded to acquire Roy giving three first round picks and a second round pick. That's a price tag you see for former good first round picks in the NHL. What Julien was willing to give back then showed he had the good read on Roy's potential. So his opinion on Roy should be valued.

Julien is a great coach, if we don’t keep Houle for whatever reason, he would be on the top of my list for his replacement

 

[JianYang]

Exactly. Even Lyle Odelein had a 5 point game in the NHL. Let's just chill for now and see how things go in the longer term.

I know what you are trying to say, but odelein was a pretty good player, and had a very long career. He was even selected for team Canada in 1996.

We should be happy if Roy has a similar impact. I mean, they are different players but odelein was very useful and hopefully Roy is too

 

[Essenege]

When Roy gets called up because he will it better be top 6. If he performs at this level he won't be returning it is as simple as that.

Agreed. Except the “top 6” don’t really make sense to me the way most team roll the lines…3rd line and PP time is an offensive role and would be fine too.

 

[ScaryCarey31]

Not saying he's as good but Roy gives me Kucherov vibes. Very stealthy and knows how to find open spots with ease. May not be the most visible by the eye test but will show up on the score sheet. If he improves his skating......look out.

I also made that comparison, much like kucherov he is very deceptive without looking like hes doing much.

 

[LaP]

Julien is a great coach, if we don’t keep Houle for whatever reason, he would be on the top of my list for his replacement

For a short while i thought you were talking about Claude Julien and i was like NO

 

[waitin425]