Johnny Gaudreau: 2015/16 expectations?

[Haatley]

It's not equally flawed; +/- is the single worst stat you can use to compare skaters, while sv% is the only somewhat useful one you can use for comparing goaltenders. It's not a great one, but in terms of usefulness it's miles ahead of +/-.

Save percentage is a terrible stat. People act like its useful, but it takes no consideration of shot quality, short handed shots etc. Posters here make it seem like its the only goaltending statistic that matters.

Shot from centre line is not equal to a shot from right in front of the net. But it is when you calculate save percentage.

It is a team stat.

 

[Dertell]

Wow people still take +/- seriously? Are we back in 2008 or something? It's a highly random/team stat because there are countless factors that influence it and 99% of them have zero connection with the individual player (unfortunate bounces, deployment, teammates, time on ice, etc). Not so different from, say, PDO, which +/- lovers spew venom at.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Save percentage is a terrible stat. People act like its useful, but it takes no consideration of shot quality, short handed shots etc. Posters here make it seem like its the only goaltending statistic that matters.

Shot from centre line is not equal to a shot from right in front of the net. But it is when you calculate save percentage.

It is a team stat.

Shot quality evens out over the long term in almost all cases, so that rarely matters. As far as game situation, it's easy enough to categorize by ev sv%, pp sv%, and pk sv%. Would I use sv% to talk about a goalie's play over a couple of games? No. But over a season or two? Absolutely.

 

[Haatley]

Shot quality evens out over the long term in almost all cases, so that rarely matters. As far as game situation, it's easy enough to categorize by ev sv%, pp sv%, and pk sv%. Would I use sv% to talk about a goalie's play over a couple of games? No. But over a season or two? Absolutely.

It doesn't even out though, unless bad defensive teams and good defensive teams suddenly switch roles.

 

[DJJones]

It doesn't even out though, unless bad defensive teams and good defensive teams suddenly switch roles.

You'll never win.

That's the biggest problem with advanced analytics. Every shot over a long enough period will average out. Saying otherwise is sacrilegious.

 

[Straight Fire]

I don't get why people pick on plus minus so much.

Yes it is a team stat. But it still has some very good info if you look at it in a context.

Two years ago: Gio was +\- of 0 and our team finished fourth last. He was playing against the toughest match ups in the league on a bad team, and still had a zero plus minus. To me that says he's a really good player.

This year. Dougie was minus 11 his first 15 games and plus 11 in his last game. Those both coincide with times that Dougie was playing bad, and then good.

Johnny Hockey. This year he's maintained a plus most of the year. Not a surprise when you consider he was basically the only forward doing anything early on. He was able to produce, especially 5 on 5, which helped him maintain a plus, while the rest of our team sucked and collected minuses.

Plus minus is not an absolute stat, but really no stat is an absolute stat. Like most stats it needs context or it tells you nothing.

Pretty much exactly.

It's not a stat like goals and assists (though sometimes even those can be lucky/near-meaningless), but it is a stat. And quite frankly how else do you penalize a person stat-wise when he's making bone-headed decisions that contribute to goals against? Sure not every goal when a player is on (for or against) has anything to do with said player. But, a percentage DO.

And honestly, if a guy is having a bad game it is often the case that his +/- will reflect that. If he's having a really good game, usually the +/- minute will reflect that.

 

[Guido Sarducci]

Or how about the fact that Gaudreau is -10 on the road when opposition coaches get to match lines?

That's so rich coming from the guy who just gave a rant about how bad it is to use +/-. "Grasping at thin air" as you put it. [mod]

 

[Anglesmith]

That's so rich coming from the guy who just gave a rant about how bad it is to use +/-. "Grasping at thin air" as you put it. [mod]

So did you agree with that post or did you agree with his earlier rant about +/-?

 

[Lunatik]

That's so rich coming from the guy who just gave a rant about how bad it is to use +/-. "Grasping at thin air" as you put it. [mod]

I said comparing a forward to a defenseman was grasping at this air. I also said comparing Gaudreau to Monahan and Hudler would make sense. But why would someone want to actually read what what said.

 

[Oates2Neely]

When it leaked that the Bruins traded Hamilton to Calgary there was a brief "rumor" floating that Gaudreau was part of the deal.. Boy was I pumped..briefly. Kid has a nose for the net, I see him as a Patrick Kane type player. Fun to watch, hungry for the puck.

 

[Lunatik]

When it leaked that the Bruins traded Hamilton to Calgary there was a brief "rumor" floating that Gaudreau was part of the deal.. Boy was I pumped..briefly. Kid has a nose for the net, I see him as a Patrick Kane type player. Fun to watch, hungry for the puck.

There was? I never heard such a rumor. Some felt Bennett might be, but I never once saw Gaudreau's name.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

There was? I never heard such a rumor. Some felt Bennett might be, but I never once saw Gaudreau's name.

That's what I heard at first. And some people were speculating that. But the details of the trade came out pretty quick.

 

[Roughneck]

When it leaked that the Bruins traded Hamilton to Calgary there was a brief "rumor" floating that Gaudreau was part of the deal.. Boy was I pumped..briefly. Kid has a nose for the net, I see him as a Patrick Kane type player. Fun to watch, hungry for the puck.

IIRC it was when Seguin was traded and the Flames were inquiring the Bruins wanted Gaudreau and 6th Overall (Monahan) and the Flames wouldn't do both.

I don't think he would have been in any Hamilton discussion.

 

[Aerchon]

I am the kind of person that admits when he is wrong. Seen too many small "elite" players come from other soft league's and struggle in the NHL. Thought forsure he would be one of those.

So far though he just keeps on getting better.

Never thought anyone that small could succeed in today's NHL. Still just expect other teams to just play him more physical but he is just too slippery.

Sucks that Calgary got one of these players... Again.

Had enough of Fluery. At least johnny doesn't seem like anew idiot like Fluery.

 

[Oates2Neely]

There was? I never heard such a rumor. Some felt Bennett might be, but I never once saw Gaudreau's name.

I don't remember exactly where I read it but like I said it was BRIEF speculation that was quickly corrected. Between Seguin & Hamilton both being moved you'd think Boston would manage to squeeze at least one top prospect in return

 

[HugginThePost]

I am the kind of person that admits when he is wrong. Seen too many small "elite" players come from other soft league's and struggle in the NHL. Thought forsure he would be one of those.

So far though he just keeps on getting better.

Never thought anyone that small could succeed in today's NHL. Still just expect other teams to just play him more physical but he is just too slippery.

Sucks that Calgary got one of these players... Again.

Had enough of Fluery. At least johnny doesn't seem like anew idiot like Fluery.

Considering what he went through, you might be able to cut him some slack. To be fair he reminds me of Yakupov.......loved playing the game. Just like Yakupov, his emotions can get the best of him.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He had another strong game last night against a tough Blues team. 6 SOG + a post from in tight.

Interesting stat - in his last 107 games, he's got 97 points.

That's a ~75 point pace over a huge sample size, much of which was during his rookie season. And after a slow start for the Flames, he's still on pace for 85 points in his 2nd season. I wouldn't be shocked to see him scare 90, though 75-85 would obviously still be a great year.

It makes you wonder what this guy's offensive ceiling could be, especially if he can get some more offensive support. 90 points? 95 points? Even more?

 

[Straight Fire]

3 more goals tonight! 15 goals 22 assists = 37 points in 34 games!

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Apparently Scott Stevens compared him to Gretzky. Glad I'm not the only one . . . but what does he know?

 

[BlowPhish]

Apparently Scott Stevens compared him to Gretzky. Glad I'm not the only one . . . but what does he know?

I've been in agreement since the beginning. Johnny's gonna be a big star....where's my cookies damnit! I'm very excited to see what he can do not only now but especially to into his prime. Both physically and mentally. He's one of those very special players.

 

[Lunatik]

Apparently Scott Stevens compared him to Gretzky. Glad I'm not the only one . . . but what does he know?

I'd love to see a link for this, not because I don't believe you because I actually would love to read it or hear it.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I'd love to see a link for this, not because I don't believe you because I actually would love to read it or hear it.

I'm looking for one. Apparently Brodie said that Stevens told him that (per my brother, I missed it, was shooting pucks in my basement).

 

[Straight Fire]

Apparently Scott Stevens compared him to Gretzky. Glad I'm not the only one . . . but what does he know?

I've been biting my tongue so much in this forum . . . I mean I think it's safe to say he'll never put up numbers anywhere near the great one, but man there are few players that differentiate themselves so strongly from the pack with puck control, overall vision and play-making skills.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I've been biting my tongue so much in this forum . . . I mean I think it's safe to say he'll never put up numbers anywhere near the great one, but man there are few players that differentiate themselves so strongly from the pack with puck control, overall vision and play-making skills.

He's unreal. The points his putting up with the relative lack of offensive support. Look at everyone else in the tops in scoring. They've pretty much all got at least one teammate in the top 20. Kane has Panarin. Benn and Seguin. Hall and Draisaitl. Karlsson has Ryan/Hoffman. Sedins. Tarasenko has Steen. Pavelski has Burns.

Gaudreau has Monahan, whose 11 points back from him. It's really unbelievable when you think about it.

 

[Siignal]

He's unreal. The points his putting up with the relative lack of offensive support. Look at everyone else in the tops in scoring. They've pretty much all got at least one teammate in the top 20. Kane has Panarin. Benn and Seguin. Hall and Draisaitl. Karlsson has Ryan/Hoffman. Sedins. Tarasenko has Steen. Pavelski has Burns.

Gaudreau has Monahan, whose 11 points back from him. It's really unbelievable when you think about it.

Monahan had at least 3 chances he should have buried where Gaudreau had a primary or secondary assist. The Flames finishing tonight was absolutely awful and it reflected until Johnny's second goal which was essentially the nail in the coffin. The space and chances he creates when he is on the puck are an absolute pleasure to watch, and it is no secret that he is the catalyst for a large portion of the Flames offense at the moment. He should have more points than he has already.