Johnny Gaudreau: 2015/16 expectations?

[DJJones]

I don't think that's really been the case for Gio; he was really struggling at the start of the season. It's the coming back after a fairly major injury mixed with playing with Wide-Dog, playing with a Young Dougie who was trying to find his way still.

+/- isn't a stat that should be held like scripture, but it can be a piece of the puzzle for sure.

Wasn't pointing at Gio in particular, playing Lacrosse as a kid that always bugged me. I'd be on for 4 seconds, have no chance to defend and the coach would pull everyone that got scored on haha.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Yeah, no. Monahan is and will be a better player than Mark Jankowski. And I'm a fan of his.

"Yeah, no. Jankowski is and will be a better player than Sean Monahan. And I'm a fan of his."
See how empty that argument is? It doesn't really accomplish anything.

Is it just me or is there some sort of hate for Monahan on here lately? At the very least, I get the impression that people are disappointed in him this year. He was terrible for the first 10 games,yes, since then he's been fine.

Since the beginning of November:
18 GP, 16 points (8G, 8A), +6, 51.8% on the dot. Not bad for a 21 year old.

He's also been on Gaudreau's line since then, unsurprisingly.

There are a lot of things you want your top centre to do, from being a difference-maker on special teams to controlled zone entries to simply going after and winning 50/50 battles in the corners to hard, aggressive backchecks that aren't a part of Monahan's game.

He's a very good player at the things he's good at - defending with decent angling, finding quiet areas to get a shot off, using his great release to find the back of the net. But that's not enough if your aspirations are the Cup. The separation between him and a real elite center like (ugh, can't believe I'm about to say this) Leon Draisaitl is night-and-day and that's not something just measured on the counting stats.

Some guys drive play North, but unfortunately for Monahan good checking lines tend to drive play against him.

At 5-on-5 this season, Gaudreau is 46.7% Corsi-For WITH Monahan with 59.9% Offensive Zone Starts, and 52.7% Corsi-For Away From Monahan with a 53.1% Offensive Zone Start. That's a significant difference and a sign (albeit not proof) that Gaudreau's struggles, especially on the road, are tied to Monahan's limitations.

None of that means Monahan is bad at hockey, it just means that he has limitations that need to be properly managed. Jankowski's game to my eye is more well-rounded while still being comparably dynamic - but it's impossible to compare two players across different leagues. I can only compare what I've seen and I've seen Jankowski make better reads in situations where I've seen Monahan struggle, in a sense that I firmly think will translate.

One currently being in the higher league at the same age (birthdays are a month apart) doesn't make him the better player now and forever - minus the raw-talent parallel, I would point to another sport where Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan are two of the best power forwards ever to play Basketball - they're a month apart in age. One, like Monahan, started his pro career at 19 as soon as he could and was already putting up elite numbers by his second and third years and was even a dominant two-way player in his prime. The other however spent a full four years playing at a lower level but learning to do things against that lower competition that developed his game to be more impactful in a way that is blatantly obvious when you watch the game. And I actually am a bigger fan of the former but fully admit the latter was, is, and will always be a better player.

I don't know who ends up being Gaudreau's center - Monahan, Jankowski, or Bennett. Even Toews is not Kane's center if you want to look at Johnny's closest parallel. But I think Jankowski and Gaudreau have the makings of a dominant pair and I've already seen Bennett centering Gaudreau display things that Monahan centering Gaudreau doesn't.

 

[blankall]

Yeah, no. Jankowski is and will be a better player than Sean Monahan. And I'm a fan of his.

See how empty that argument is?



He's also been on Gaudreau's line since then, unsurprisingly.

There are a lot of things you want your top centre to do, from being a difference-maker on special teams to controlled zone entries to simply going after and winning 50/50 battles in the corners to hard, aggressive backchecks that aren't a part of Monahan's game.

He's a very good player at the things he's good at - defending with decent angling, finding quiet areas to get a shot off, using his great release to find the back of the net. But that's not enough if your aspirations are the Cup. The separation between him and a real elite center like (ugh, can't believe I'm about to say this) Leon Draisaitl is night-and-day and that's not something just measured on the counting stats.

Some guys drive play North, but unfortunately for Monahan good checking lines tend to drive play against him.

At 5-on-5 this season, Gaudreau is 46.7% Corsi-For WITH Monahan with 59.9% Offensive Zone Starts, and 52.7% Corsi-For Away From Monahan with a 53.1% Offensive Zone Start. That's a significant difference and a sign that Gaudreau's struggles, especially on the road, are tied to Monahan's limitations.

None of that means Monahan is bad at hockey, it just means that he has limitations that need to be properly managed. Jankowski's game to my eye is more well-rounded while still being comparably dynamic - but it's impossible to compare two players across different leagues. I can only compare what I've seen and I've seen Jankowski make better reads in situations where I've seen Monahan struggle, in a sense that I firmly think will translate.

One currently being in the higher league at the same age (birthdays are a month apart) doesn't make him the better player now and forever - minus the raw-talent parallel, I would point to another sport where Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan are two of the best power forwards ever to play Basketball - they're a month apart in age. One, like Monahan, started his pro career at 19 as soon as he could and was already putting up elite numbers by his second and third years and was even a dominant two-way player in his prime. The other however spent a full four years playing at a lower level but learning to do things against that lower competition that developed his game to be more impactful in a way that is blatantly obvious when you watch the game. And I actually am a bigger fan of the former but fully admit the latter was, is, and will always be a better player.

I don't know who ends up being Gaudreau's center - Monahan, Jankowski, or Bennett. Even Toews is not Kane's center if you want to look at Johnny's closest parallel. But I think Jankowski and Gaudreau have the makings of a dominant pair and I've already seen Bennett centering Gaudreau display things that Monahan centering Gaudreau doesn't.

Jankowski, at 6'4'' and 21, is now a large and relatively physically developed vet playing in a league with kids aged 17-22. Monahan got off to a slow start, but looks to be returning to his 30+ goal place, in the NHL .

I'm glad that Jankowski is no longer looking like a wasted pick, but comparing him to Monahan is way to premature. Calling him more "well rounded" is absurd. Monahan, at 21, has shown that he is one of the best finishers in the NHL. Jankowski has a long way to go before showing he's a Joe Colborne, yet alone a Sean Monahan.

Also, your Corsi argument isn't very good. Monahan is being matched up against as our top line centre. You might as well say, Gaudreau does better against inferior defence.....well duh.

 

[Boomstick]

This.

A couple seasons ago, Calgary lost to Boston 9-0. TJ Brodie had 25 minutes ice time and was even +/-! EVEN! If that doesn't tell you something...

I remember that game, and I wish I didn't. Chris Butler was -7 if I remember correctly.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Jankowski, at 6'4'' and 21, is now a large and relatively physically developed vet playing in a league with kids aged 17-22. Monahan got off to a slow start, but looks to be returning to his 30+ goal place, in the NHL .

Of course I'm aware that they play in different leagues and one plays in a better league. Playing in a better league doesn't mean you have more upside or are even better right now, though. There are countless examples of guys entering the league at 22 who go on to pretty good careers. It's pretty lazy analysis to use "did X in the NHL". Monahan did more at age 20 "in the NHL" than Evgeni Kuznetsov too. But who is the better player with the greater upside?

I'm glad that Jankowski is no longer looking like a wasted pick, but comparing him to Monahan is way to premature. Calling him more "well rounded" is absurd. Monahan, at 21, has shown that he is one of the best finishers in the NHL. Jankowski has a long way to go before showing he's a Joe Colborne, yet alone a Sean Monahan.

1) Jankowski never looked like a wasted pick. He's always needed to develop certain aspects of his game, which he's more than done. The only people thinking he's "finally no longer looking like a wasted pick" are the ones watching the stats not the player.
2) Tyler Bozak is also one of the better finishers in the NHL. Even if Tyler Bozak were an ~27 goal scorer and not a ~20 goal scorer, he would still be... Tyler Bozak. You need more out of your top line center and play going consistently, reliably against him is not what you need.

Also, your Corsi argument isn't very good. Monahan is being matched up against as our top line centre. You might as well say, Gaudreau does better against inferior defence.....well duh.

No one's really matching lines against Monahan. They're matching lines against Gaudreau. When Bennett was centering Johnny, that was our top line and Monahan's line was struggling to even be our 2nd line center. He has limitations in his game that are real that correlate to what we see on the ice as much as what the stats tend to show anyways.

Yes, Monahan will probably score 30 goals this season. He has that finishing talent. In fact I think he will score 40+ goals one of these seasons. But that doesn't absolve him of the fact that his overall game has plateaued and his production is artificially inflated from playing with Johnny Hockey just as Tyler Bozak's production was inflated from playing with Phil Kessel.

 

[Paper]

I remember that game, and I wish I didn't. Chris Butler was -7 if I remember correctly.

And was on the ice for an additional goal on the PK. He set an NHL record that will probably stand for quite some time.

 

[DJJones]

And was on the ice for an additional goal on the PK. He set an NHL record that will probably stand for quite some time.

#WINNING

Haha

 

[blankall]

Of course I'm aware that they play in different leagues and one plays in a better league. Playing in a better league doesn't mean you have more upside or are even better right now, though. There are countless examples of guys entering the league at 22 who go on to pretty good careers. It's pretty lazy analysis to use "did X in the NHL". Monahan did more at age 20 "in the NHL" than Evgeni Kuznetsov too. But who is the better player with the greater upside?



1) Jankowski never looked like a wasted pick. He's always needed to develop certain aspects of his game, which he's more than done. The only people thinking he's "finally no longer looking like a wasted pick" are the ones watching the stats not the player.
2) Tyler Bozak is also one of the better finishers in the NHL. Even if Tyler Bozak were an ~27 goal scorer and not a ~20 goal scorer, he would still be... Tyler Bozak. You need more out of your top line center and play going consistently, reliably against him is not what you need.



No one's really matching lines against Monahan. They're matching lines against Gaudreau. When Bennett was centering Johnny, that was our top line and Monahan's line was struggling to even be our 2nd line center. He has limitations in his game that are real that correlate to what we see on the ice as much as what the stats tend to show anyways.

Yes, Monahan will probably score 30 goals this season. He has that finishing talent. In fact I think he will score 40+ goals one of these seasons. But that doesn't absolve him of the fact that his overall game has plateaued and his production is artificially inflated from playing with Johnny Hockey just as Tyler Bozak's production was inflated from playing with Phil Kessel.

Poor Sean Monahan...just turned 21 and his game has plateaued.

He got off to a slow start, as did the whole team, but to use that as evidence towards the fact he plateaued at 21 is ridiculous. Ignoring his offensive numbers, which are now right now track, his two way play continues to improve. He's looking like a 30-40 goal centre with great 2 way play. In his 3 years in the NHL, he's made the transition from sheltered rookie to top line minutes/opposition.

The Tyler Bozak comparison is also strange. Bozak has fewer goals this year, but is on pace to destroy his point totals from previous years. His +/- is also drastically improved. Kessel is on pace for a disastrous year.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Poor Sean Monahan...just turned 21 and his game has plateaued.

He got off to a slow start, as did the whole team, but to use that as evidence towards the fact he plateaued at 21 is ridiculous. Ignoring his offensive numbers, which are now right now track, his two way play continues to improve.

His game has stopped growing at an exponential pace. Maybe it hasn't plateaued but the growth rate is not that high. He's the same player he was last February and hasn't taken any apparent strides this season after getting completely dominated by Kesler and Sedin in the playoffs. This isn't about his slow offensive production start and never was.

He's looking like a 30-40 goal centre with great 2 way play. In his 3 years in the NHL, he's made the transition from sheltered rookie to top line minutes/opposition.

"great 2-way play" is a rose-tinted shades assessment. I respectfully disagree. "adequate 2-way play" maybe.

The Tyler Bozak comparison is also strange. Bozak has fewer goals this year, but is on pace to destroy his point totals from previous years. His +/- is also drastically improved. Kessel is on pace for a disastrous year.

Tyler Bozak is no longer a top line center. He's being deployed in the correct role that suits his limitations while Kadri has replaced him as #1. That is what I would like to see for Monahan - being used in a role that suits him while a better all-around player - be that Bennett or Jankowski - plays the top line role with Gaudreau, because Gaudreau will always be a magnet to other team's top checking lines.

 

[blankall]

His game has stopped growing at an exponential pace. Maybe it hasn't plateaued but the growth rate is not that high. He's the same player he was last February and hasn't taken any apparent strides this season after getting completely dominated by Kesler and Sedin in the playoffs. This isn't about his slow offensive production start and never was.



"great 2-way play" is a rose-tinted shades assessment. I respectfully disagree. "adequate 2-way play" maybe.



Tyler Bozak is no longer a top line center. He's being deployed in the correct role that suits his limitations while Kadri has replaced him as #1. That is what I would like to see for Monahan - being used in a role that suits him while a better all-around player - be that Bennett or Jankowski - plays the top line role with Gaudreau, because Gaudreau will always be a magnet to other team's top checking lines.

Currently the long term question is who will be the #1 centre, Monahan or Bennett. Sliding in Jankowski is a huge leap at this point. I hope you're right, and Jankowski does transition into being a #1 centre, but he simply hasn't proven anything at any pro level.

And yes, a players growth always slows down. When a player goes from 34 points to 31 goals and 62 points, you have to see a slow down in growth. Otherwise that player would be 50 goals and 90 points and then 70 goals and 120 points. Instead, we're seeing Monahan's game become more well rounded. He should put up similar numbers, which are very solid, while growing as a player.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Currently the long term question is who will be the #1 centre, Monahan or Bennett. Sliding in Jankowski is a huge leap at this point. I hope you're right, and Jankowski does transition into being a #1 centre, but he simply hasn't proven anything at any pro level.

Obviously a player who hasn't played at any pro level hasn't proven anything at any pro level. Chicken and the Egg, though. He also hasn't been proven to "not" be an effective center at any pro level.

Monahan has played at the pro level and hasn't proven he's a #1C. In fact comparisions to guys like Ryan Smyth have been made which is not exactly what you're looking for.

Bennett has played at the pro level but hasn't proven he can get trusted with even #2C or #3C responsibilities. So wouldn't he be a leap when he's only a #2LW? But yet we both know he's the most likely in the organization to be an elite NHL center.

Instead, we're seeing Monahan's game become more well rounded.

Except we're not. He's been one of our least effective penalty killers on the worst penalty kill in the NHL, he's partially responsible for the worst power play in the NHL, and at evens the possession stats are not an end-all be-all but they show you the lack of upwards progression that the rest of the team is experiencing:

Last Season, Monahan was a 45.6% possession player on a 44.5% possession team.
This Season, Monahan is a 45.8% possession player on a 48.5% possession team.

With Monahan there just aren't a lot of intangibles. What he puts up on the Goals and Assists columns is what you're getting from him. And a lot of those are produced by Johnny Hockey.

 

[Volica]

Monahan is still very much developing, and plateauing is far from where this kid's at; I think offensively there's still some room to grow in regards to being more dominant with the puck and creative.

Defensively, he's made positive strides this year alone. His FO% is up big since November, and he's getting matched up with top lines more often than not. He's looking good, clearly he's not Bergeron or Toews; but how many kids that are 21 years old get marched out against other teams top units or expected to hold down major defensive roles for the team.

I think anyone in their right mind takes Monahan over Jankowski. Anyone. Seriously. One's a 60+ point C in the NHL, the other one is having a breakout college year.

 

[Fire Treliving]

"Yeah, no. Jankowski is and will be a better player than Sean Monahan. And I'm a fan of his."
See how empty that argument is? It doesn't really accomplish anything.



He's also been on Gaudreau's line since then, unsurprisingly.

There are a lot of things you want your top centre to do, from being a difference-maker on special teams to controlled zone entries to simply going after and winning 50/50 battles in the corners to hard, aggressive backchecks that aren't a part of Monahan's game.

He's a very good player at the things he's good at - defending with decent angling, finding quiet areas to get a shot off, using his great release to find the back of the net. But that's not enough if your aspirations are the Cup. The separation between him and a real elite center like (ugh, can't believe I'm about to say this) Leon Draisaitl is night-and-day and that's not something just measured on the counting stats.

Some guys drive play North, but unfortunately for Monahan good checking lines tend to drive play against him.

At 5-on-5 this season, Gaudreau is 46.7% Corsi-For WITH Monahan with 59.9% Offensive Zone Starts, and 52.7% Corsi-For Away From Monahan with a 53.1% Offensive Zone Start. That's a significant difference and a sign (albeit not proof) that Gaudreau's struggles, especially on the road, are tied to Monahan's limitations.

None of that means Monahan is bad at hockey, it just means that he has limitations that need to be properly managed. Jankowski's game to my eye is more well-rounded while still being comparably dynamic - but it's impossible to compare two players across different leagues. I can only compare what I've seen and I've seen Jankowski make better reads in situations where I've seen Monahan struggle, in a sense that I firmly think will translate.

One currently being in the higher league at the same age (birthdays are a month apart) doesn't make him the better player now and forever - minus the raw-talent parallel, I would point to another sport where Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan are two of the best power forwards ever to play Basketball - they're a month apart in age. One, like Monahan, started his pro career at 19 as soon as he could and was already putting up elite numbers by his second and third years and was even a dominant two-way player in his prime. The other however spent a full four years playing at a lower level but learning to do things against that lower competition that developed his game to be more impactful in a way that is blatantly obvious when you watch the game. And I actually am a bigger fan of the former but fully admit the latter was, is, and will always be a better player.

I don't know who ends up being Gaudreau's center - Monahan, Jankowski, or Bennett. Even Toews is not Kane's center if you want to look at Johnny's closest parallel. But I think Jankowski and Gaudreau have the makings of a dominant pair and I've already seen Bennett centering Gaudreau display things that Monahan centering Gaudreau doesn't.

Until Jankowski does something in the NHL, he cannot be compared to Monahan at all. Or even suggest that he'd be a better linemate for JG.

Mark is doing very well in college. But that doesn't mean anything if he cannot do the same in the NHL.

Monahan was pretty bad for the first 10-15 games. It's no wonder his advanced stats might be skewed. In the last 18 games, he has 16 points, is a plus player and is almost 52% at the faceoff circle. I'm curious what his advanced stats look like in that time frame.

To suggest he's plateued at 21 is just odd.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Monahan was pretty bad for the first 10-15 games. It's no wonder his advanced stats might be skewed. In the last 18 games, he has 16 points, is a plus player and is almost 52% at the faceoff circle. I'm curious what his advanced stats look like in that time frame.

CF% Monahan

First 12 Games - 46.5% On-Ice / 50.4% Off-Ice
Last 18 Games - 45.2% On-Ice / 48.9% Off-Ice

Any way you look at it, he's pretty much the most overmatched (forward) on the team being played way over his head. Only Russell is more overmatched. How about Gaudreau?

Gaudreau-Bennett-(not Monahan) - 59.4%
Gaudreau-Monahan-(not Bennett) - 47.2%
Gaudreau-Monahan-Bennett - 36.0% and Hartley broke it up after 14 minutes.
Gaudreau-Backlund - 61.5%

Fact is when Johnny is out there with possession centers he has success.

Until Jankowski does something in the NHL, he cannot be compared to Monahan at all. Or even suggest that he'd be a better linemate for JG.

Mark is doing very well in college. But that doesn't mean anything if he cannot do the same in the NHL.

Be that as it may, I will wager on Kulak or Hickey being an improvement over Russell and I would wager on one of Bennett or Jankowski being an improvement over Monahan in those roles.

 

[Yosemite Sam]

Mods: Can you start a Jankowski vs. Monahan thread and move all this garbage there? Or clean it up? Thread has been derailed.

 

[Calgareee]

Obviously a player who hasn't played at any pro level hasn't proven anything at any pro level. Chicken and the Egg, though. He also hasn't been proven to "not" be an effective center at any pro level.

Monahan has played at the pro level and hasn't proven he's a #1C. In fact comparisions to guys like Ryan Smyth have been made which is not exactly what you're looking for.

Bennett has played at the pro level but hasn't proven he can get trusted with even #2C or #3C responsibilities. So wouldn't he be a leap when he's only a #2LW? But yet we both know he's the most likely in the organization to be an elite NHL center.



Except we're not. He's been one of our least effective penalty killers on the worst penalty kill in the NHL, he's partially responsible for the worst power play in the NHL, and at evens the possession stats are not an end-all be-all but they show you the lack of upwards progression that the rest of the team is experiencing:

Last Season, Monahan was a 45.6% possession player on a 44.5% possession team.
This Season, Monahan is a 45.8% possession player on a 48.5% possession team.

With Monahan there just aren't a lot of intangibles. What he puts up on the Goals and Assists columns is what you're getting from him. And a lot of those are produced by Johnny Hockey.

I think it's a leap to think that Bennett has the potential to be an elite center. The NHL doesn't think he can score goals.

 

[Yung Rotini]

Change thread title to "Monahan is garbage, Jankowski is the true hero"

Fitting for how much this thread has been derailed.

 

[L13]

I hope people see what I meant when I said Jankowski is a powder keg subject among Calgary fans

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

I apoligize for any part I had in the derailment but my point is that Gaudreau needs a center who can keep the puck on Gaudreau's stick because Gaudreau is amazing with the puck on Gaudreau's stick and right now Gaudreau's center is an anchor on Gaudreau even if he's a good player in the right capacity he causes the puck to be away from Gaudreau's stick more often than not.

 

[Tkachuky]

I apoligize for any part I had in the derailment but my point is that Gaudreau needs a center who can keep the puck on Gaudreau's stick because Gaudreau is amazing with the puck on Gaudreau's stick and right now Gaudreau's center is an anchor on Gaudreau even if he's a good player in the right capacity he causes the puck to be away from Gaudreau's stick more often than not.

This needs a few punctuations: commas and periods

The sentence seemed like never it was never going to end...

But on a serious note, Johnny is filthy. /thread

 

[DJJones]

It's only a matter of time until he pulls some new madness out of his ass and we are all back here discussing Johny haha.

 

[Lunatik]

Gaudreau plays 20+ mins/night and is +6 on a team that is collectively -24. That means that for the remaining 40 mins/game that he is not on the ice, the team is -30. Since they have played 30 games, this implies that while at ES (and without Gaudreau) the Flames get outscored by 1.5 goals per 60 mins.

The fact that he is a +6 on a team with that differential without him is indeed notable.

+/- is the most useless stat in the game and only tells you who was on the ice and not who was involved in the scoring play (good or bad). Perfect example is the overtime winner against the Rangers. Gaudreau got an assist on the GWG but wasn't even on the ice when it was scored. Not everyone on the ice has something to do with the goal that is scored (for or against) so using a stat that rewards or punishes every player on the ice is useless and only counts in certain situations is useless.

Giordano plays more against tougher competition. At even strength when the players get credited with a plus or minus Giordano plays almost 3 minutes a game more than Gaudreau; on the season he has been on the ice for 84.5 more minutes than Gaudreau. I don't follow so called advanced stats, but I am sure you will also find that Giordano has a lower rate where he starts in the offensive zone as well.

So yes comparing the plus-minus between the two is completely futile and nothing more than grasping at thin air.

 

[shackattack]

Where would Flames and Oilers be without 3 on 3 ??? .lol

 

[Pizza the Hutt]

Where would Flames and Oilers be without 3 on 3 ??? .lol

Serious question - if a team is good at 3 on 3, how does that reflect poorly on them? Surely it's better than losing in OT? And on that subject - Detroit, Boston, Minnesota and Nashville would all be far lower in the standings if it wasn't for loser points, so does that also make them terrible?

 

[Straight Fire]

+/- is the most useless stat in the game and only tells you who was on the ice and not who was involved in the scoring play (good or bad). Perfect example is the overtime winner against the Rangers. Gaudreau got an assist on the GWG but wasn't even on the ice when it was scored. Not everyone on the ice has something to do with the goal that is scored (for or against) so using a stat that rewards or punishes every player on the ice is useless and only counts in certain situations is useless.

Giordano plays more against tougher competition. At even strength when the players get credited with a plus or minus Giordano plays almost 3 minutes a game more than Gaudreau; on the season he has been on the ice for 84.5 more minutes than Gaudreau. I don't follow so called advanced stats, but I am sure you will also find that Giordano has a lower rate where he starts in the offensive zone as well.

So yes comparing the plus-minus between the two is completely futile and nothing more than grasping at thin air.

Oh good grief.