Jared Bednar Discussion

[redacted]

They’re not way ahead? They’re in the same ballpark. And if you dissect each season theyve only improved.

Detroit has lost 111 games trailing after two. That means that they’ve been trailing after 2 more than twice the amount of games the avs have. They are no where near similar.

That is not anywhere near the same ballpark. Tampa almost always top 3. Avs are almost always bottom 5.

Detroit has won 11 games out of 121. Colorado has won 7 of 78. Do the math and figure out which one is better.

 

[Moosehead1]

That is not anywhere near the same ballpark. Tampa almost always top 3. Avs are almost always bottom 5.

Detroit has won 11 games out of 121. Colorado has won 7 of 78. Do the math and figure out which one is better.

I don’t think you understand trends. I don’t think you understand the last two columns very well either.
Yes they’ve won 4 more games TRAILING after two but they’ve also played more than twice as many games trailing after two, specifically. 230 > 160

 

[CharlesPuck]

So are 5,7,8 or 3+

Cool, what to retort my claim they are playing boring hockey NOW but referencing games that happened 4 weeks ago

 

[redacted]

I don’t think you understand trends. I don’t think you understand the last two columns very well either.

I don't think you understand what you're talking about or debating in general.

 

[Moosehead1]

Cool, what to retort my claim they are playing boring hockey NOW but referencing games that happened 4 weeks ago

Just because it happened 4 weeks ago it didn’t happen?

 

[Moosehead1]

I don't think you understand what you're talking about or debating in general.

I dunno, the bigger picture is pretty clear.

 

[CharlesPuck]

Just because it happened 4 weeks ago it didn’t happen?

so you really do struggle with the concept of NOW don't you....

 

[Moosehead1]

so you really do struggle with the concept of NOW don't you....

.50 of the last 4 games have been 3+ gf that’s part of my original argument, that’s relevant to now...

 

[redacted]

I dunno, the bigger picture is pretty clear.

It is clear... Bednar is great at x's and o's, terrible at adjustments. They are bottom of the league in his tenure when losing after any period. There are blips in the 2nd period, but the 3rd period is bottom 5 in all but one season. The Avs are elite at getting the first goal and middle pack to top 10 at holding on to the win.

Do me a favor though and do the simple math on the win percentage of the Avs and Detroit when losing after 2 periods. Do the same with Tampa.

 

[Moosehead1]

It is clear... Bednar is great at x's and o's, terrible at adjustments. They are bottom of the league in his tenure when losing after any period. There are blips in the 2nd period, but the 3rd period is bottom 5 in all but one season. The Avs are elite at getting the first goal and middle pack to top 10 at holding on to the win.

Do me a favor though and do the simple math on the win percentage of the Avs and Detroit when losing after 2 periods. Do the same with Tampa.

These are all stats that are trending upwards for the avs. I’m not arguing that they have more points while trailing after 2 than the redwings. They only trailed going into the third 15 times last year. Their points while leading after two are just as good as the blues and the caps. The bigger picture is that they are trending towards elite and established teams in some stats while competing directly in others. Point being Bednar and the team do indeed adjust and grow. Which is the topic of this thread right?

They are absolutely in the same league as Tampa St. Louis and Washington.

 

[redacted]

These are all stats that are trending upwards for the avs. I’m not arguing that they have more points while trailing after 2 than the redwings. They only trailed going into the third 15 times last year. Their points while leading after two are just as good as the blues and the caps. The bigger picture is that they are trending towards elite and established teams in some stats while competing directly in others. Point being Bednar and the team do indeed adjust and grow. Which is the topic of this thread right?

They are absolutely in the same league as Tampa St. Louis and Washington.

And where in this conversation have I said anything about Bednar lacking the ability to hold on to a lead? Where has anybody?

How is having the worst win percentage after 2 periods just last season trending up in that area?

The Avs are better in some areas than those teams and worse in some areas. When it comes to coming back from deficits, they are far worse. You're moving the goalposts here because you were wrong about them getting better over the years on winning games when down and about them being in the same league in that area as the top teams in the league.

 

[Moosehead1]

And where in this conversation have I said anything about Bednar lacking the ability to hold on to a lead? Where has anybody?

How is having the worst win percentage after 2 periods just last season trending up in that area?

The Avs are better in some areas than those teams and worse in some areas. When it comes to coming back from deficits, they are far worse. You're moving the goalposts here because you were wrong about them getting better over the years on winning games when down and about them being in the same league in that area as the top teams in the league.

I’m not moving goal posts at all. Last year St. Louis had 60 points total leading after two and 16 trailing. The avs had 68 leading after two and 5 trailing. Yes 5 is less than 16 but 68 is more than 60. It’s pretty convenient to forget that adjustments/preparation allow them to lead the game more than they have to come back but also finish the game ahead or tied.

 

[redacted]

I’m not moving goal posts at all. Last year St. Louis had 60 points total leading after two and 16 trailing. The avs had 68 leading after two and 5 trailing. Yes 5 is less than 16 but 68 is more than 60. It’s pretty convenient to forget that adjustments/preparation allow them to lead the game more than they have to come back but also finish the game ahead or tied.

Read a bit more around the forum. I've been pretty complimentary on Bednar's ability to come up with a solid gameplan, his x's and o's, and his ability to get the first goal. Adjustments in the games, he's terrible at. He also has longer slumps within the seasons. I've painted good and bad on this thread and others. I haven't forgotten or ignored anything with this. I've given the most complete posts on this subject if you look around.

 

[larueskee]

Bednar did a better job with less talent than he does with more talent. I think he tends to make too many changes with his lines and defensive pairs. Graves was a plus 40 last year and didn't he play with Makar for most of the year? Graves is now a minus player and Makar has just 1 goal? So I don't get that move. Seriously you think you can improve a plus 40 ? Was that move to have Toews play with Sergio Makar?

 

[SirLoinOfCloth]

Bednar did a better job with less talent than he does with more talent. I think he tends to make too many changes with his lines and defensive pairs. Graves was a plus 40 last year and didn't he play with Makar for most of the year? Graves is now a minus player and Makar has just 1 goal? So I don't get that move. Seriously you think you can improve a plus 40 ? Was that move to have Toews play with Sergio Makar?

To be fair, regarding the +40, Bednar probably recognized that just like everyone else, that stat was an outlier. It was never going to be +40 again, or anywhere near it. Graves is returning to what was expected, and you don't want one of your top defenders on a pairing with one of your bottom pairing defenders. Graves should not be anywhere near the top 2 pairings. He's fine as a third pairing D.

 

[Moosehead1]

Read a bit more around the forum. I've been pretty complimentary on Bednar's ability to come up with a solid gameplan, his x's and o's, and his ability to get the first goal. Adjustments in the games, he's terrible at. He also has longer slumps within the seasons. I've painted good and bad on this thread and others. I haven't forgotten or ignored anything with this. I've given the most complete posts on this subject if you look around.

2017 - 2020
COL - 3rd period GF/GA
256
238
TBL - 3rd period GF/GA
283
227
STL - 3rd period GF/GA
239 /
228
WAS - 3rd period GF/GA
259
255
DET 3rd period GF/GA
212 /
289

Maybe he’s not terrible at making adjustments either?

 

[larueskee]

To be fair, regarding the +40, Bednar probably recognized that just like everyone else, that stat was an outlier. It was never going to be +40 again, or anywhere near it. Graves is returning to what was expected, and you don't want one of your top defenders on a pairing with one of your bottom pairing defenders. Graves should not be anywhere near the top 2 pairings. He's fine as a third pairing D.

Valid point, has I was never high on Graves on his own but why not try it again if it was getting results?

 

[redacted]

2017 - 2020
COL - 3rd period GF/GA
256
238
TBL - 3rd period GF/GA
283
227
STL - 3rd period GF/GA
239 /
228
WAS - 3rd period GF/GA
259
255
DET 3rd period GF/GA
212 /
289

Maybe he’s not terrible at making adjustments either?

That speaks nothing to making adjustments... scoring an extra goal or two in the third when already up doesn't mean you adjusted a thing.

 

[Moosehead1]

That speaks nothing to making adjustments... scoring an extra goal or two in the third when already up doesn't mean you adjusted a thing.

Its pretty consistent with cup winning teams / coaches/ that aren’t being scrutinized for “not being able to make adjustments”. Again, maybe those in game adjustments allow them to lead / score more third period goals than not?

 

[redacted]

Its pretty consistent with cup winning teams / coaches/ that aren’t being scrutinized for “not being able to make adjustments”.

When you are up 3-1 going into the 3rd... you don't adjust. Play your gameplan. Then maybe you can get an empty net at the end. Suddenly you are +1 in GD in the 3rd. You're being deliberately obtuse.

 

[Moosehead1]

When you are up 3-1 going into the 3rd... you don't adjust. Play your gameplan. Then maybe you can get an empty net at the end. Suddenly you are +1 in GD in the 3rd. You're being deliberately obtuse.

That’s not always true, if you’re up and a team starts putting on pressure or scoring you adjust. Same way teams implement the trap when they lead. Bednar doesn’t do that. I don’t disagree that when you’re winning you don’t stay the course, but sometimes you don’t. Saying that the avs don’t adjust (Bednar) just simply isn’t true and there are more stats that prove it than don’t.

the adjustments are in the preparation. The playbook, the scenarios they practice for etc. Bednar and the avalanche are improving every year and playing fantastic. They slide like any other team but when you look at the bigger picture a thread questioning whether he will be here next year is absurd.

 

[redacted]

That’s not always true, if you’re up and a team starts putting on pressure or scoring you adjust. Same way teams implement the trap when they lead. Bednar doesn’t do that. I don’t disagree that when you’re winning you don’t stay the course, but sometimes you don’t. Saying that the avs don’t adjust (Bednar) just simply isn’t true and there are more stats that prove it than don’t.

You get more cautious but you don't adjust. That is a part of the gameplan going in... teams know exactly what they are going to do if they get a lead to hold.

Let's go down this rabbit hole though. During those 3 years the Avs have 51 EN goals. Which is tops in the league. The have 25 goals against when the opposing team has an empty net. So a net 26. The 18 differential there goes to -8 when adjusting for empty net situations. Tampa has a +56 GD in the 3rd. They have 38 EN goals vs 21 against. Net 17. Leaving a net +39. Clearly +39 is much different than a -8.

 

[Moosehead1]

You get more cautious but you don't adjust. That is a part of the gameplan going in... teams know exactly what they are going to do if they get a lead to hold.

Let's go down this rabbit hole though. During those 3 years the Avs have 51 EN goals. Which is tops in the league. The have 25 goals against when the opposing team has an empty net. So a net 26. The 18 differential there goes to -8 when adjusting for empty net situations. Tampa has a +56 GD in the 3rd. They have 38 EN goals vs 21 against. Net 17. Leaving a net +39. Clearly +39 is much different than a -8.

None of that indicates that they don’t make any adjustments. I’d still argue that playing the game so that you don’t need to come from behind to win in the third period more times than you do is more of an indication of in game adjustments than not.

 

[redacted]

None of that indicates that they don’t make any adjustments. I’d still argue that playing the game so that you don’t need to come from behind to win in the third period more times than you do is more of an indication of in game adjustments than not.

Please elaborate

 

[Moosehead1]

Please elaborate

I have extensively. Go ahead and compare their gf/ga per game and or their relative differential. You’ll find, again, they’re in the same neighborhood as the past three cup winning teams and trending upwards every year. There aren’t any signs of regression.