Value of: Jake Guentzel as a rental

[pth2]

The only thing making me wonder if 2 firsts are a possibility is not knowing how much of that 40 goal production came from playing with Crosby.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Islanders would be an excellent fit, if they had cap space long-term. But most of their forwards are signed beyond 2 years. Otherwise he'd be a great fit in that top 6. Holmstrom + 1st.....

Another team that makes sense is Boston. With Danton Heinen and James van Riemsdyk taking shifts in the top 6 shows the importance of grabbing a star LW. They also have the cap space long-term with Grzelcyk, Debrusk and Forbort coming off the books next year.

Boston:
Jake Guentzel - a 40 goal, point per game winger. A guy who can add another lethal sniper to Boston's top 6. Boston could easily sign him long-term and build a core group around Marchand/Pastrnak/Guentzel.
Depth Contract - Balance the deal for contract space, Probs a depth guy who can play an nhl shift if needed.

Pittsburgh
Fabian Lysell - A recent first round pick, who's slick right winger, with lots of speed. His skating alone will make him an nhler. Sees the ice very well. Instantly becomes Pittsburgh's top forward prospect. (I'm not a big Yager fan)
2025 1st round pick
Jackson Edward- Pittsburgh has a severe lack of young d prospects. With a mediocre d core, and only Pickering, Pienimiemi and Beliveau (who's an ECHLer) coming up, adding another young guy with decent potential makes sense. Projects to be a steady stay at home defender, with high compete, something Pittsburgh lacks.

I'd hate to see something like this, since I'm a leafs fan, but I can't sugar coat how much sense it makes.

Good write up but Boston screams Elias Lindholm more so than a big winger. They might get a winger but it might be the smaller variety + massive C upgrade

 

[Wandering Cynic]

I would do Kuzmenko and a 1st for Guentzel (50% retained for this season and an extension in place). Gives the Canucks room to make one more move at the deadline.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

He'll get a 1st for sure. I guess the question is just how significant a prospect gets attached with him.

Highly doubt its a prospect as good as that OP post suggests. You very, very rarely see those sort of A tier prospects traded at the trade deadline for rentals... And when you do see them traded, they're usually for Centers.


I could see a 1st + B prospect sort of return however. Something fairly in line with what Horvat got last year.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

He's like the only great trade chip the penguins have. If there's no long term deal to be had pens should trade him. As amazing as Crosby has been with his goal scoring and two way play, Guentzel is actually the penguins leading scorer this season so far.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

The only thing making me wonder if 2 firsts are a possibility is not knowing how much of that 40 goal production came from playing with Crosby.

He's outscoring Crosby so far this season. Imo he's at least a 70 point player on any team. That said I don't expect two firsts.

Since the beginning of 2018-19 he's averaged 38 goals and 81 points per 82 games.

 

[Ulf5]

I would do Kuzmenko and a 1st for Guentzel (50% retained for this season and an extension in place). Gives the Canucks room to make one more move at the deadline.

I'm sure you would trade a healthy scratch and bottom of the round 1st pick for a .58 goals per playoff game 1st line winger.
And half off to boot.

 

[BrookswasHere44]

I don't actually care what we get but I'm all for significant shakeups, all we ever get are GM changes

 

[Flyer lurker]

a1 and a legit prospect is the right price.

The question is will pens management finally admit its time to rebuild?

 

[SEALBound]

Islanders would be an excellent fit, if they had cap space long-term. But most of their forwards are signed beyond 2 years. Otherwise he'd be a great fit in that top 6. Holmstrom + 1st.....

Another team that makes sense is Boston. With Danton Heinen and James van Riemsdyk taking shifts in the top 6 shows the importance of grabbing a star LW. They also have the cap space long-term with Grzelcyk, Debrusk and Forbort coming off the books next year.

Boston:
Jake Guentzel - a 40 goal, point per game winger. A guy who can add another lethal sniper to Boston's top 6. Boston could easily sign him long-term and build a core group around Marchand/Pastrnak/Guentzel.
Depth Contract - Balance the deal for contract space, Probs a depth guy who can play an nhl shift if needed.

Pittsburgh
Fabian Lysell - A recent first round pick, who's slick right winger, with lots of speed. His skating alone will make him an nhler. Sees the ice very well. Instantly becomes Pittsburgh's top forward prospect. (I'm not a big Yager fan)
2025 1st round pick
Jackson Edward- Pittsburgh has a severe lack of young d prospects. With a mediocre d core, and only Pickering, Pienimiemi and Beliveau (who's an ECHLer) coming up, adding another young guy with decent potential makes sense. Projects to be a steady stay at home defender, with high compete, something Pittsburgh lacks.

I'd hate to see something like this, since I'm a leafs fan, but I can't sugar coat how much sense it makes.

Good offer. I accept.

I think the 2025 1st is key. I think if they sell a bit, they will be in the bottom 10 which transfers the Karlsson trade 1st to 2025. So a replacement 1st there would be nice.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Kakko

 

[Peter Griffin]

You're looking at a 1st plus blue chip or a 1st plus roster player plus prospect.

Giroux just went for a 1st, 3rd, and Tippet. So I mean, let be realistic about what GMs are willing to pay at the TDL.

Vancouver seems like a reasonable destination, honestly.

1st + Podkolzin and Vancouvers choice of Garland or Kuzmenko is something I could see.

Is Guentzel refusing to re-sign with Pittsburgh or they just can’t find common ground on a contract?

I can see Vancouver having interest, but I think they would want to target someone they feel they can re-sign. Rutherford/Allvin/Tocchet all have familiarity with him so Guentzel does make a lot of sense if they target a top line winger.

 

[SEALBound]

Is Guentzel refusing to re-sign with Pittsburgh or they just can’t find common ground on a contract?

I can see Vancouver having interest, but I think they would want to target someone they feel they can re-sign. Rutherford/Allvin/Tocchet all have familiarity with him so Guentzel does make a lot of sense if they target a top line winger.

No discussions yet. There is no report either way so there's zero evidence of anything regarding willingness to sign, contract demands, etc.

My hope is that they cash in on his rental status and then resign him on July 1st.

 

[Peter Griffin]

No discussions yet. There is no report either way so there's zero evidence of anything regarding willingness to sign, contract demands, etc.

My hope is that they cash in on his rental status and then resign him on July 1st.

What are Pens’ fans predictions on his next contract? I would think 7x$8M seems reasonable?

 

[Donuts]

myers

 

[RandV]

To be fair, their 1st doesn't have much value atm.
If Jake went as a rental at 50%, half the league would be in on him.
Jake at 50% at the TDL would be the smartest thing Dubas could do.

This is a fallacy that fans tend to have these days, that salary retention is like a slider where you push it down one way and the corresponding value increases the other. Right now we're looking at Guentzel as a deadline rental. By the time we reach the deadline, there will be less than $2M left on his salary this season. If a buyer can add that to the roster as is (I can't recall the specifics of how the CBA works these days), they're not just going to give Pittsburgh like another 2nd or a better prospect because they retained half. With Pittsburgh as a reference on a larger scale it was the same deal with the Karlsson trade. The two teams worked out an arrangement that worked for the cap, and San Jose didn't just get to have a bigger return by pressing their thumb down on the increase salary retention button.

Anyways as far as Vancouver is concerned it would purely be a rental, but I with Kuzmenko I feel like it would need to be more a Horvat situation last year where we went Horvat -> Isles 1st -> Hronek. Hard to put value on Kuzmenko but he's not quite a rental at the moment, so that opens up other trade possibilities for Vancouver.

 

[jackjohnson]

Is Guentzel refusing to re-sign with Pittsburgh or they just can’t find common ground on a contract?

I can see Vancouver having interest, but I think they would want to target someone they feel they can re-sign. Rutherford/Allvin/Tocchet all have familiarity with him so Guentzel does make a lot of sense if they target a top line winger.

Only makes sense for canucks if its kuzmenko straight swap with no additions from canucks side.

 

[Ulf5]

This is a fallacy that fans tend to have these days, that salary retention is like a slider where you push it down one way and the corresponding value increases the other. Right now we're looking at Guentzel as a deadline rental. By the time we reach the deadline, there will be less than $2M left on his salary this season. If a buyer can add that to the roster as is (I can't recall the specifics of how the CBA works these days), they're not just going to give Pittsburgh like another 2nd or a better prospect because they retained half. With Pittsburgh as a reference on a larger scale it was the same deal with the Karlsson trade. The two teams worked out an arrangement that worked for the cap, and San Jose didn't just get to have a bigger return by pressing their thumb down on the increase salary retention button.

Anyways as far as Vancouver is concerned it would purely be a rental, but I with Kuzmenko I feel like it would need to be more a Horvat situation last year where we went Horvat -> Isles 1st -> Hronek. Hard to put value on Kuzmenko but he's not quite a rental at the moment, so that opens up other trade possibilities for Vancouver.

Retaining half adds a lot more teams being able to take on the contract without sending any cap back. Thus pushing trade value up.
We'll have to disagree here.

 

[Daz28]

Retaining half adds a lot more teams being able to take on the contract without sending any cap back. Thus pushing trade value up.
We'll have to disagree here.

I think the last few deadline trade wars disagree with him, too.

 

[SEALBound]

What are Pens’ fans predictions on his next contract? I would think 7x$8M seems reasonable?

Yeah I would say Forsberg is a good comparison. I mean, honestly he's one of the more underrated LWs in the league. He produces extremely well in all facets.

I think most Pens fans assume Carters departure means that money will go to Jake. So $8-9mil seems reasonable. That said, Sid has always pushed the "take a little less" position and both Letang and Malkin just did so, if they make it a full 7 years, I wouldn't be shocked to see a $7-7.5mil deal. $50mil roughly.

 

[Ulf5]

Yeah I would say Forsberg is a good comparison. I mean, honestly he's one of the more underrated LWs in the league. He produces extremely well in all facets.

I think most Pens fans assume Carters departure means that money will go to Jake. So $8-9mil seems reasonable. That said, Sid has always pushed the "take a little less" position and both Letang and Malkin just did so, if they make it a full 7 years, I wouldn't be shocked to see a $7-7.5mil deal. $50mil roughly.

I agree Seal. I don't see Jake chasing every last penny if he stays. He certainly can get $8 million plus. I'm expecting around $7.5 million per.

 

[66-30-33]

Only makes sense for canucks if its kuzmenko straight swap with no additions from canucks side.

Aren't you the guy that said Jake isn't worth much? :|

 

[jackjohnson]

Aren't you the guy that said Jake isn't worth much? :|

That's if we are throwing in a 1st. Then it wouldn't be worth it imo

 

[66-30-33]

That's if we are throwing in a 1st. Then it wouldn't be worth it imo

So you expect to get good players for cheap? LMAO!!!

 

[jackjohnson]

So you expect to get good players for cheap? LMAO!

He is a UFA and Kuzmenko isnt chopped liver. In fact i rather we keep the younger Kuzmenko. You wanted a kings ransom for Guentzel who will be UFA?? Trading Kuzmenko and 1st is more return than what we got for Horvat who is a 2nd C and worth more than Guentzel.