Value of: Jake Guentzel as a rental

[3074326]

A 1st + a very good prospect feels like it'd be too much, although I wonder if something can be done for Kuzmenko+ for Guentzel.

Jake is a PPG player in the postseason and a 40 goal scorer multiple times. Anything less than that will be met with laughing emojis, and rightfully so.

With retention, Jake fetches a pretty good return… not less than that.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Jake is a PPG player in the postseason and a 40 goal scorer multiple times. Anything less than that will be met with laughing emojis, and rightfully so.

With retention, Jake fetches a pretty good return… not less than that.

The only problem as I see it is Guentzel's age. I think he's still a 70 point or better player away from Crosby and Malkin. But he's also 29 and statistically only has about 3 or 4 good years left in him.

Still worth a 1st, still worth a prospect, but you're not likely to get a team's top prospect unless you're giving up the 1st as a requirement.

 

[molon labe]

The only problem as I see it is Guentzel's age. I think he's still a 70 point or better player away from Crosby and Malkin. But he's also 29 and statistically only has about 3 or 4 good years left in him.

Still worth a 1st, still worth a prospect, but you're not likely to get a team's top prospect unless you're giving up the 1st as a requirement.

You are definitely looking at both this year - as a rental. Jake Guentzel at 3M to any contender is causing a bidding war of at least 3 teams in the hunt - and that doesn't stop with a 1st...especially when you consider teams that are in the hunt have relatively shit 1st round picks (20th or higher).

If he had term you'd be talking more than that - especially on his most recent deal of 6M per year.

Though, I see the caveat of a 'teams top prospect' - that part is subjective. I think if the Pens deal Guentzel, at all, it's in 2 ways: A) A hockey trade in January to shake the 500 off of this team or B) at the TDL because we kept Sully/the same players and are sitting at 500 and out of the race. Situation B is what we're talking here.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

You are definitely looking at both this year - as a rental. Jake Guentzel at 3M to any contender is causing a bidding war of at least 3 teams in the hunt - and that doesn't stop with a 1st...especially when you consider teams that are in the hunt have relatively shit 1st round picks (20th or higher).

If he had term you'd be talking more than that - especially on his most recent deal of 6M per year.

Though, I see the caveat of a 'teams top prospect' - that part is subjective. I think if the Pens deal Guentzel, at all, it's in 2 ways: A) A hockey trade in January to shake the 500 off of this team or B) at the TDL because we kept Sully/the same players and are sitting at 500 and out of the race. Situation B is what we're talking here.

The Zucker trade seems like a reasonable comparison. If the Wild were in on him, I could see the 1st and pick one of Lambos, Peart, Hunt being a reasonable jumping off point. I don’t think the Wild are in position to spend on another winger next season at the cost of a D man but maybe there are some connection reasons that the Wild may be interested.

There could be forward options too I suppose, but Yurov and Ohgren would be unlikely sell options this season.

I think the Wild would possibly get outbid by an actual contender.

 

[Seanaconda]

I mean it could be he and them have an understanding and he isn't the type to want to worry about it in season ?

idk

 

[Darren McCord]

Jake is worth a first + a good prospect if a team feels like he is a piece to put them over the top.

He’s a ppg in the playoffs while scoring at like a 50 goal pace.

58gp 34g in the playoffs is worth a lot.

 

[Peter Griffin]

I’d consider 1st and Brzustewicz for him from Vancouver but would probably shop that package around to see what sort or player could be had on a 2 year term.

 

[Mike Jones]

Is ownership going to give Dubas the green light to sell at the deadline? They seem solidly in the win-now camp - even if the team has little, if any chance of making the payoffs.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Buyers generally have weak prospect pools. A very good prospect can be a medium size fish in a small pond. The prospect kicker in the Duchene trade was Abramov. For Hall (to Arizona), Bahl. For Horvat, Raty.

If made available, Pitsburgh should prioritize a bubble team. The 1st is where the value is. The higher, the better.

 

[pth2]

I expect he'll fetch a nice package... and the real challenge will be for the acquiring team to resist extending him on a 7 year deal that he'll underperform on before the halfway mark.

 

[66-30-33]

If Jake goes he should go at 3M so return is better. He will get a lot at 3M. Pens should then target Nylander in July.

 

[chethejet]

If Pens are out of the chase come TDL. Dubas may shop him for offers. But i think Dubas will resign him say 8 AAV and have 10 million to work with this off season. I prefer him getting a 1st and a good prospect like RD or LW.

 

[StickShift]

With no retention: a 1st and a roster player.

With 50% retention: a 1st, #2/3 prospect, and a roster player.

 

[Habs 4 Life]

A 1st + a very good prospect feels like it'd be too much, although I wonder if something can be done for Kuzmenko+ for Guentzel.

You think it's too much? To be honest I think the Penguins should and could receive a lot more if they're serious about moving him.

 

[Go Wings]

After getting Karlsson and whilst Crosby and Malkin are still playing, I don't think that they think their window is closed. They can offer him a big contract, and if he wants to move after the next couple of years (likely the absolute final hurrah for the window), he can move on, and the team rebuilds.

Pittsburgh missed the playoffs last year and will likely miss this year and you think their window to contend is still open?

 

[Chuck Norris Trophy]

Heavily discussed on our boards. Pettersson needs a top line winger he can feed off of rather than having to play with Mikheyev, Lafferty, Suter and whatever else depth guy we have.

Guentzel would be ideal + the Pittsburgh connection he has with Tocc/Rutherford

It makes almost too much sense for Canucks. I bet they will be on this heavily.

 

[Ulf5]

It makes almost too much sense for Canucks. I bet they will be on this heavily.

To be fair, their 1st doesn't have much value atm.
If Jake went as a rental at 50%, half the league would be in on him.
Jake at 50% at the TDL would be the smartest thing Dubas could do.

 

[Iwishihadaspacebar]

Pittsburgh missed the playoffs last year and will likely miss this year and you think their window to contend is still open?

I actually said

"I don't think that they think their window is closed."

 

[GeauxPreds1]

To Pitt: Egor Afansyev, Dante Fabbro, 2024 2nd

To Nash: Guentzel

Forsberg- ROR-Nyquist

Guentzel-Novak- Tomasino

Parsinnen-Sissons- Evangelista

Smith-Mccaron-Trenin

A 1st would have to be in a deal for Guentzel and probably a better prospect than afansyev. Which I would still do to get him in Nashville

 

[chethejet]

I love to get a couple younger wingers from the Preds. Trenin and a 2nd or Tomasino and a first are my deals. But Dubas likes Jake and at 29 he is not old.

 

[Go Wings]

I actually said

"I don't think that they think their window is closed."

It doesn't matter that you don't think it's closed missing the playoffs 2 years in a row would indicate it is closed.

Congrats you are now the Detroit Red Wings of 2016-2017. Aging stars with long contracts that produce but not enough to get in the playoffs. A weak prospect pool with a long painful rebuild ahead.

 

[Iwishihadaspacebar]

It doesn't matter that you don't think it's closed missing the playoffs 2 years in a row would indicate it is closed.

Congrats you are now the Detroit Red Wings of 2016-2017. Aging stars with long contracts that produce but not enough to get in the playoffs. A weak prospect pool with a long painful rebuild ahead.

I'm not a Pens fan and I've not given my opinion of the Pens. I think they're no longer cup contenders personally, I gave what I think their franchise thinks.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Considering Jake at 50% and 3.0 and the team trying to nab him being a very late 1st, this is 2 1sts territory. Probably still a + on top.

They are not sending out a question mark so they shouldn't be getting any question marks back to being an NHLer. So that prospect better be their top prospect because that 1st isn't gonna nab a automatic NHLer.

To Pitt: Egor Afansyev, Dante Fabbro, 2024 2nd

To Nash: Guentzel

Forsberg- ROR-Nyquist

Guentzel-Novak- Tomasino

Parsinnen-Sissons- Evangelista

Smith-Mccaron-Trenin

Not interested in seriously low lowball offers.

Not one top prospect, or 1st.

 

[SEALBound]

You're looking at a 1st plus blue chip or a 1st plus roster player plus prospect.

Giroux just went for a 1st, 3rd, and Tippet. So I mean, let be realistic about what GMs are willing to pay at the TDL.

Vancouver seems like a reasonable destination, honestly.

1st + Podkolzin and Vancouvers choice of Garland or Kuzmenko is something I could see.

 

[Mitch nylander]

Islanders would be an excellent fit, if they had cap space long-term. But most of their forwards are signed beyond 2 years. Otherwise he'd be a great fit in that top 6. Holmstrom + 1st.....

Another team that makes sense is Boston. With Danton Heinen and James van Riemsdyk taking shifts in the top 6 shows the importance of grabbing a star LW. They also have the cap space long-term with Grzelcyk, Debrusk and Forbort coming off the books next year.

Boston:
Jake Guentzel - a 40 goal, point per game winger. A guy who can add another lethal sniper to Boston's top 6. Boston could easily sign him long-term and build a core group around Marchand/Pastrnak/Guentzel.
Depth Contract - Balance the deal for contract space, Probs a depth guy who can play an nhl shift if needed.

Pittsburgh
Fabian Lysell - A recent first round pick, who's slick right winger, with lots of speed. His skating alone will make him an nhler. Sees the ice very well. Instantly becomes Pittsburgh's top forward prospect. (I'm not a big Yager fan)
2025 1st round pick
Jackson Edward- Pittsburgh has a severe lack of young d prospects. With a mediocre d core, and only Pickering, Pienimiemi and Beliveau (who's an ECHLer) coming up, adding another young guy with decent potential makes sense. Projects to be a steady stay at home defender, with high compete, something Pittsburgh lacks.

I'd hate to see something like this, since I'm a leafs fan, but I can't sugar coat how much sense it makes.