Value of: Jack Campbell's next deal in TOR

[Pyrophorus]

Meh let’s see if they lose in round 1 and leaf fans throw blame and turn on him instead of their star players.

He was better than Price last year.
Unlike Freddy he wasn't to blame.

 

[Canovin]

5M will it will be 5.5M because Leafs won't take back a 6th rounder

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If Toronto is going to keep playing as well defensively as they have lately, he should try his best to stay there. Like Binnington. Maybe they aren't really great goalies overall, but if you got handed the ball and are rocking in a certain spot, just stay. The LEAST he should get is 5x$5M. Maybe he can chase for more, or maybe if he wins a Vezina or Stanley Cup even the Leafs will have to offer him more, though. But he shouldn't take less than $25M at this point.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Daly: NHL expects salary cap to increase by $1M in 2022-23 - Sportsnet.ca

Cap inflation. The best UFAs will just take some of that money. Not that one player will take all of that 1 mill, but a rising cap doesn't give teams more flexibility unless all of their players are already signed.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

6 years $25m total= $4.16 aav TML financial flex special front loaded bonus laden deal.
Right now there’s $5.35m committed to the goaltenders. They just have to trade off mrazek to one of any number of teams looking to ride the platoon goalie carousel next off-season and sign a cheaper back up.

No one will want Mrazek. 3+ mill for a goalie whose been injured all season, nah.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Where’s the “not in Toronto option”

Well it's more of a question of what TOR can afford to pay him if he stays in TOR.

He could very well leave but it doesn't seem likely, unless his character of loving the team is all a big lie and good acting.

Cap inflation. The best UFAs will just take some of that money. Not that one player will take all of that 1 mill, but a rising cap doesn't give teams more flexibility unless all of their players are already signed.

For sure but it's a good sign of things to come though.
If the cap goes up even a million a year, we're at around 85 mil by 2024-25.
Could be more than a million starting from 2023 on.

 

[ToDavid]

A discount is likely wishful thinking. Not because I doubt he wants to play here, but he's nearly 30 and has $4.3 million career earnings. This will likely be his one big contract.

His age/experience are working against him. Might be able to keep the cap hit down if we offer more term than would be typical of a 30 year old. There are 19 active goalies on contracts signed after their 30th birthday. Only 4 signed for more than 3 years, all of which have significantly more games played as well as multiple years as a starter.

I want to see a weird contract. Give him 8x$3m.

 

[GreeningOil]

I f he keeps this up, he is going to win the vezina and ask for a boatload of money.

Not with Markstrom doing his thang

 

[Crabapple]

If he doesn't falter he's getting $6M a season. Could see it being a shorter contract at 3-4 years, but he's been dynamite since he got to Toronto.

 

[XXIV97]

Petr Mrazek signed a 3 x 3.8 M contract while only playing 12 games (.923 sv%) in his contract year. Before this, he played 40 games (.905 sv%), 40 games (.914 sv%), 17 games (.891 sv%). Therefore, in the previous 109 games, Mrazek had a .908 sv%. Important to note that Mrazek is injury prone.

Jack Campbell in his time in Toronto has a .929 sv% in 44 games. With the LA Kings, in 57 games, Jack Campbell had .919 sv%. If Campbell wins the Venezia trophy, I think that will add at least 1 M in cost.

For me, if Campbell play regressed to a .919 level, he will get 5 years at 4.25 M. If he keeps up his current play but wins no Venezia trophy, 5 years x 5 M. If he wins the Venezia, 6 M x 6.

 

[Homesick]

The Oilers will be looking to upgrade their goalie this summer and easily throw 6m at him

 

[shortfuze]

No one will want Mrazek. 3+ mill for a goalie whose been injured all season, nah.

For sure they will. 1B goalie at 3 million+ is a good contract. The season is a quarter of the way done. Lots of time left for him to play.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Well it's more of a question of what TOR can afford to pay him if he stays in TOR.

He could very well leave but it doesn't seem likely, unless his character of loving the team is all a big lie and good acting.



For sure but it's a good sign of things to come though.
If the cap goes up even a million a year, we're at around 85 mil by 2024-25.
Could be more than a million starting from 2023 on.

he could absolutely love the team/city but still bolt for a better contract, especially if the Leafs try to lowball him. it's a business, on both sides
how many times do you see a player leave then come back and sign a 1 day contract to retire with the team they left? careers are short, make some money while ya can
and there are some good teams that would likely want his services. not like he'd have to go to a bottom feeder to get paid

 

[Sundinisagod]

5 x 5

 

[GirardSpinorama]

For sure they will. 1B goalie at 3 million+ is a good contract. The season is a quarter of the way done. Lots of time left for him to play.

He's going to need a lot of games and play really great to recover in value. Carolina let him walk and went and got a better goalie in raanta for less cost. I don't see anyone wanting him when they can pay only 2.2 mill extra for Campbell.

 

[Sundinisagod]

He's going to need a lot of games and play really great to recover in value. Carolina let him walk and went and got a better goalie in raanta for less cost. I don't see anyone wanting him when they can pay only 2.2 mill extra for Campbell.

On the open market, Campbell could be more than an extra 2.2, and a big 'if' he even becomes a ufa.

 

[The Nuge]

I find it funny that on the main boards Leafs players aren’t good until it’s time to discuss their next contract

It’s more that people point out that most players aren’t going to take a discount like the fans think. It didn’t happen with Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, etc. Why would it happen now? Especially when we’re talking about someone who hasn’t made much money. He’s at 4.3 million in career earnings, with his highest paid years coming in the pandemic where escrow eats a lot of that up. Realistically he’s maybe made what like a million dollars, after tax, in his career? He needs to take the biggest payday that gets offered, regardless of who offers it. Just look at Maroon. He got to win a cup in front of his son (and a couple more after). The talk after he was in Edmonton was that the discussions were like 4x4, and he made a quarter of that because he took the discount to play for the team he wanted to. He’d have like tripled his career earnings if he’d just taken the payday.

A discount is likely wishful thinking. Not because I doubt he wants to play here, but he's nearly 30 and has $4.3 million career earnings. This will likely be his one big contract.

His age/experience are working against him. Might be able to keep the cap hit down if we offer more term than would be typical of a 30 year old. There are 19 active goalies on contracts signed after their 30th birthday. Only 4 signed for more than 3 years, all of which have significantly more games played as well as multiple years as a starter.

I want to see a weird contract. Give him 8x$3m.

Exactly. He needs to take the money for the sake of setting himself up to be comfortable financially.

I feel like you’d still have to go higher than 8x3. 5x5 is more money with a chance to get even more if he’s still good at 35. Even 8x3.5 might do it though (with a NMC)

 

[Sasha Orlov]

It's the Leafs and Dubas so without a Vezina we're probably look at $14M/yr for 5 years or so

 

[shortfuze]

He's going to need a lot of games and play really great to recover in value. Carolina let him walk and went and got a better goalie in raanta for less cost. I don't see anyone wanting him when they can pay only 2.2 mill extra for Campbell.

Is there a link to Carolina letting him walk? Maybe he wanted to test free agency and liked Toronto more.

What will those teams do if Campbell is signed?

 

[Team Cozens]

The Mrazek deal of 3 x $3.8 mil seems to be the range Dubas will try and start with but what will Campbell demand and ultimately get in TOR?

Just over a 100 career NHL games, decent year in LA (2018-19) and his time in TOR has been fairly elite so far.

He turns 30 this January so he'll be nearing 31 by the time the new deal kicks in.

4yrs x $4.25 mil seem like a fit?
Not really sure where he lands with such a small but very respectable resume at 30yrs old.

EDIT - changing my above prediction to 5yrs x $4.5 to 5 million

What say you?
*move to polls if need be MODs*

My guess is 4 X $3.75 million and then some random sponsor connected to MLSE signs a large commercial deal with Campbell.

 

[TheDoldrums]

It’s more that people point out that most players aren’t going to take a discount like the fans think. It didn’t happen with Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, etc. Why would it happen now?

lol what is this straw man garbage. How did fans think Tavares would take a discount when they literally didn't know he was signing until it happened? People weren't saying the young guys were taking discounts either, the heck. Their signings were largely contentious from the start.

The actual people that had noticeable discount discussions were Hyman and Rielly. Rielly did seem to take a bit of a discount, espec Hyman didn't though I don't know if the Leafs ever offered him anything close.

 

[Rubi]

Honestly if I was Soupy and I had a great year and set to become a UFA... I'd see what the open market had to offer before I signed a contract with Toronto.

 

[Trash Panda]

My guess is 4 X $3.75 million and then some random sponsor connected to MLSE signs a large commercial deal with Campbell.

That’s a nice bit of cap circumvention ya got there.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

2 recent comparables:

Ullmark - 4 x $5M
Grubauer - 6 x $5.9M

I think that Campbell is somewhere in that range. Under no circumstances can I see him getting less than Ullmark. It all depends on how agressive Campbell wants to be, but given his age and lack of career earnings, I doubt he leaves much meat on the bone with this contract.

 

[Nylanderthal]

No one will want Mrazek. 3+ mill for a goalie whose been injured all season, nah.

Good thing the entire season isn’t six weeks long.