Value of: Jack Campbell's next deal in TOR

[johnnybbadd]

Campbell should easily get more than 5 mil/year on the open market. If I were to guess he would sign between 3-5 years. Should look like this:
3 years 6 mill/year
4 years 5.75/year
5 years 5.5/year

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Think some are forgetting the Leafs will likely offer him a ton of signing bonus money to keep the AAV down a bit.

• So say $4.5 mil x 5yrs but if $3.5 mil of that is in signing bonus, it will be better than him getting $5.5 mil x 5yrs but mostly in salary.

Some saying he's getting 6 x 6 seem exaggerated. He'll be 30 and has 100 NHL games.
If he gets 6 yrs, the AAV should be under or right at $5 million or Dubas got fleeced.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Not sure why everyone is assuming it will be under $5 mill. He’s playing way above that level - last season & this season

 

[PAZ]

Think Campbell would sign at a slight discount (something around 4-5 x 5) to stay in Toronto, or he'll get something closer to 4-5 x 6 on the open market.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Not sure why everyone is assuming it will be under $5 mill. He’s playing way above that level - last season & this season

I dont think anyone is questioning this but the theme of the thread revolves around him having 102 career NHL games, this will be his 45th game for TOR tonight (7 playoffs games with TOR as well) and he will be 30 in a few months.

It's an unique situation and interesting topic to discuss. Nobody is right or wrong until he signs the new deal and we all see the term and money.

 

[unicornpig]

he should hit the ufa market, its his last chance to make real money. absolutely dumb if he does 3 year 4-5 million range

 

[Mr Positive]

In the NHL it doesnt take long to get big money. 5.5 x 5 years assuming he keeps this up.

He is worth far more than Mzarek

The GP argument for why he should get less is pretty much debunked. Plus it's not 100 games. Theres still more games this season

 

[Flyer lurker]

1) I would consider Campbell as of today the number 1 free agent goalie. Fluery is too old and Kuemper I don't trust his health on a 5 year deal. Its early so it could change.
2) Can taxes are big vs. a zero state USA tax state is legit. Tor advantage would be say 18m for first 2 years upfront on a 5 year deal.
3) Most recent goalie of comparison I would make (as long as Campbell plays well in playoffs)
High end Gru at 6yr 35m.
low end Anderson 4.5m per.

If Campbell is not in this range, something went wrtong this year.

 

[PAZ]

1) I would consider Campbell as of today the number 1 free agent goalie. Fluery is too old and Kuemper I don't trust his health on a 5 year deal. Its early so it could change.
2) Can taxes are big vs. a zero state USA tax state is legit. Tor advantage would be say 18m for first 2 years upfront on a 5 year deal.
3) Most recent goalie of comparison I would make (as long as Campbell plays well in playoffs)
High end Gru at 6yr 35m.
low end Anderson 4.5m per.

If Campbell is not in this range, something went wrtong this year.

Or he wins the Vezina + Conn Smythe and ends up with 7+ mil.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

1) I would consider Campbell as of today the number 1 free agent goalie. Fluery is too old and Kuemper I don't trust his health on a 5 year deal. Its early so it could change.
2) Can taxes are big vs. a zero state USA tax state is legit. Tor advantage would be say 18m for first 2 years upfront on a 5 year deal.
3) Most recent goalie of comparison I would make (as long as Campbell plays well in playoffs)
High end Gru at 6yr 35m.
low end Anderson 4.5m per.

If Campbell is not in this range, something went wrtong this year.

agree Mr Lurker... IF he continues as he is now, Campbell is prolly gonna sign somewhere for around 5yrs, 27-30m

he is NOT signing a 3yr 12-14m contract lol

and good point about the taxes. I always wonder why some folks think a player, on a limited career span, would take less money to play in more expensive areas. And TOR is DEF expensive

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

In the NHL it doesnt take long to get big money. 5.5 x 5 years assuming he keeps this up.

He is worth far more than Mzarek

The GP argument for why he should get less is pretty much debunked. Plus it's not 100 games. Theres still more games this season

He'll be around 150 regular season games with possible 11 to 20ish playoff games.
He's 30 soon and goalies are voodoo.
Do I think he falls off a cliff, likely not as TOR do play top 10 defense.
He's still only played 31 games as season high, in LA.

As pointed out in OP, TOR has around $7 million in space with Campbell, Kase, Sandin and Liljegren to sign as free agents.
Trades of Kerfoot, Holl and Ritchie obviously help that issue though.

agree Mr Lurker... IF he continues as he is now, Campbell is prolly gonna sign somewhere for around 5yrs, 27-30m

he is NOT signing a 3yr 12-14m contract lol

and good point about the taxes. I always wonder why some folks think a player, on a limited career span, would take less money to play in more expensive areas. And TOR is DEF expensive

TOR can offer signing bonus money to keep the AAV lower. If he thinks they can win, 6yrs would also lower the AAV in theory.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I'm not sure why he'd take much less than Demko, if at all.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

He'll be around 150 regular season games with possible 11 to 20ish playoff games.
He's 30 soon and goalies are voodoo.
Do I think he falls off a cliff, likely not as TOR do play top 10 defense.
He's still only played 31 games as season high, in LA.

As pointed out in OP, TOR has around $7 million in space with Campbell, Kase, Sandin and Liljegren to sign as free agents.
Trades of Kerfoot, Holl and Ritchie obviously help that issue though.



TOR can offer signing bonus money to keep the AAV lower. If he thinks they can win, 6yrs would also lower the AAV in theory.

man.. 6yrs for a soon to be 30yr old goalie? hmmmm.. not sure that's a good move. could happen, but..

so what's the AAV on a 6yr deal look like?

 

[Mr Positive]

He'll be around 150 regular season games with possible 11 to 20ish playoff games.
He's 30 soon and goalies are voodoo.
Do I think he falls off a cliff, likely not as TOR do play top 10 defense.
He's still only played 31 games as season high, in LA.

As pointed out in OP, TOR has around $7 million in space with Campbell, Kase, Sandin and Liljegren to sign as free agents.
Trades of Kerfoot, Holl and Ritchie obviously help that issue though.



TOR can offer signing bonus money to keep the AAV lower. If he thinks they can win, 6yrs would also lower the AAV in theory.

Signing bonus money is nice but it's not going to let you shave millions and millions of dollars of the total cash.

This will be Campbell's one chance for big money.

The only chance the Leafs have to meaningfully bring down the AAV is to get nuts with term.

Edit: but obviously the comparable and most likely deals are ones like Lehner, Demko. 5+million AAV and 5+ years

 

[McShogun99]

I think he will get a contract similar to Markstroms, just not with the Leafs.

I doubt he does the “good guy” thing and take a lot less money to stay considering that this is his only chance to cash in on a big contract. I don’t understand the Mrazek signing since that money could have went towards Campbell.

 

[centipede2233]

I think Edmonton goes after Campbell HARD. They were in the running for marksteom, koskinen comes. Off the books. Holland already has an appetite for leaf players in Barrie and Hyman. I say Campbell gets a 6 or 7 year deal at 5-5.5 mil. Holland likes to tack on the 7th year it seems to keep the AAV down

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

man.. 6yrs for a soon to be 30yr old goalie? hmmmm.. not sure that's a good move. could happen, but..

so what's the AAV on a 6yr deal look like?

$4.25 to 5 million?
With 20 million of it in signing bonus in the first 3 years. Basically 7 mil a year and then heavy drop off in the final 2-3 years.

He seems to genuinely like it in TOR and he makes them that much better, if he had more playoff experience, I could see the argument for around $6 mil.
Season high of 31 games, can he play 55ish games on the regular?

Signing bonus money is nice but it's not going to let you shave millions and millions of dollars of the total cash.

This will be Campbell's one chance for big money.

The only chance the Leafs have to meaningfully bring down the AAV is to get nuts with term.

Edit: but obviously the comparable and most likely deals are ones like Lehner, Demko. 5+million AAV and 5+ years

Again, it's the short resume, ~150 games at 30yrs old. It's a hot stretch on a really good regular season team.
If he had 2-3 yrs of playoff experience I could get behind the $6 mil per range.

I'll gladly eat my crow if it's $5.5 mil or more on a 6yr deal in TOR.
Rielly took 500k to a million per year less to stay in TOR.
If Mrazek was cheaper, Jack gets a touch more.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

How can Leaf fan actually convince themselves he'd sign a 3 year 4 million dollar deal?

He's been absolutely lights out this year. If he ends the season in Vezina consideration then the 6x6 Grubauer contract is the direct comparable.

The leafs aren't a dominant team defensively either. He's easily worth the Lehner contract in my book.

 

[seanlinden]

Lehner, Markstrom, Grubauer, and Ullmark are the realistic comparables. Guys who have shown elite play, are "mid-aged", but have "some" knock on them, whether it's a lack of experience/playing time, playing on a bad team, etc.

Lehner $5m x 5
Markstrom $6m x 6
Grubauer $5.9m x 6
Ullmark $5m x 4

Campbell is going to be the same age as Markstrom when the first year of his deal kicks in; and older than Lehner/Grubauer/Ullmark.

Campbell's vs Markstrom

Why Campbell should / will get more:
- Play is and has been more impressive than Markstrom's was,
- Markstrom signed in the highly depressed COVID-market. For Campbell, we're getting closer to a cap-increasing situation.
- Negligible career earnings to date, this is is ONLY shot to hit it big.

Why Markstrom should/ will get more:
- 270 games of experience (including 2 seasons where he played 60 games), whereas Campbell will likely finish the year at around 140-145 games played, and only 1 season where he was the most utilized goalie on his team.
- Markstrom's bigger (and GMs LOVE size when it comes to goalies)
- Markstrom was "on the outs" in Vancouver, so was basically open to the highest bidder. Campbell is undoubtedly the Leafs top priority, with no young goalies coming through, and given his bumpy road to the NHL, likely would prefer to stay.

My guess -- 6 years at $5.5m in Toronto, 6x6 elsewhere. Another approach would be to take a "bet on yourself" deal -- sign for 2 years at $4.5m per season and try to go shop yourself at 33 years old, with a 4-year track record, in a cap-rising environment, but I just can't see a player willing to take that risk.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Campbell will be the guy who takes less as the "good guy" on a team full of players who cashed in.

Still will get paid but I think he will sign for less than he could get on the market.

That was Rielly

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

How can Leaf fan actually convince themselves he'd sign a 3 year 4 million dollar deal?

He's been absolutely lights out this year. If he ends the season in Vezina consideration then the 6x6 Grubauer contract is the direct comparable.

The leafs aren't a dominant team defensively either. He's easily worth the Lehner contract in my book.

Because as good as he's been his career high for games in a season is still 31

 

[5 14 6 1]

He could ask 5M+ pretty easily.

 

[Buzzman17]

I think after tonight, Soupy will recognize Toronto’s system makes him look like the dominator and resign for a reasonable amount. If not then Woll and Mrazek can be our goalies next year.

 

[Mr Positive]

Because as good as he's been his career high for games in a season is still 31

With sample size, just know that if he played like this as a full starter for 5 years he'd be getting 8-9 million

Theres no way he would sign for anything starting with a 4

Also him and his agent would notice a lot of deals signed with GP seeming too low with a generous guess on their future.

Assuming he gets a full season under his belt, playing this well, as a UFA mercenary he might get 6 million AAV +

 

[Frank Drebin]

Think some are forgetting the Leafs will likely offer him a ton of signing bonus money to keep the AAV down a bit.

• So say $4.5 mil x 5yrs but if $3.5 mil of that is in signing bonus, it will be better than him getting $5.5 mil x 5yrs but mostly in salary.

Some saying he's getting 6 x 6 seem exaggerated. He'll be 30 and has 100 NHL games.
If he gets 6 yrs, the AAV should be under or right at $5 million or Dubas got fleeced.

Thats what dubas does