Value of: Jack Campbell's next deal in TOR

[Dache]

He is a Vezina quality before his deal is signed, and then the second the Leafs have an extension in place at say 5 x 4.5AAV he will be the most overpaid 1A in the league...

I love this place

Or on the other hand, he is a vezina quality goalie that some leafs fans think isn’t worth more than 3.5-4 mil.

 

[Ciao]

Campbell is a nice guy, but probably not a sucker.

I think he will go for the going rate, which starts at $5-million for a starting goalie.

That's what the Leafs paid for Andersen when he came over, and I don't see Campbell signing for less. Why should he?

 

[Ciao]

Okay, mini-rant here not meant to derail the thread, but please, people stop saying "going forward" (or its just as bad cousin "moving forward"), it literally adds nothing to the point you are trying to make.

The second time you use it (quoted above) is completely redundant to your point. Try instead: "I have no doubts when Mrazek is healthy that he and Soup (will) split the load."

The first instance you make it worse by using it wrong. "Dubas's plan was to have a platoon style combo in net this season and going forward, injuries have derailed it slightly." Try instead, "Dubas's plan was to have a platoon style combo in net this season (but) injuries have derailed it slightly."

Yeah, I know, but it's been a pet peeve of mine since someone in the business world a few decades ago came up with the idea that adding "forward" to a sentence implied action and/or positivity. (Newscasters and sports broadcasters somehow picked up on this are the worst culprits. I think Dreger, for instance, can't go two sentences without saying it. Don't be Dreger.)

Great advice to follow on a go-forward basis!

Oops! Sorry about that

P.S.: You are quite right. Point taken.

 

[Ciao]

Campbell's a tough one because he seems like one of those guys that's more concerned with being in a situation he loves rather than cashing in on an extra couple of million elsewhere.

On the flip side, he's 29 (30 by the time the new deal kicks in) and knows this is likely his one big payday to set him and his family up for life. It's not like he's had the benefit of being paid $4+ million per season for the past 10 years, so he can take a smaller deal this time.

If the Leafs and Campbell can find a happy medium, like $5 to $5.5 million over 5 years, he'd probably stick around even if he could get $6 or $7 million on the open market.

He should take the best deal for himself and his family.

And I'm a Leafs' fan.

 

[golffuul]

My guess is they try to sign him for 2 years @ $3-4M but they honestly can't afford him at that price unless they make a salary move. With Mrazek still set to make 3.8M, the Cap only going up another $1M, and Sandin/Liljegren needing contracts, they still need to move off some salary. And that is even with 1.2M coming back from Kessel's salary retention coming off the books. Toronto needs one of their young prospects to finally make the roster and move off someone at the trade deadline (probably Ritchie or Kerfoot) to make it all work.

Biggest problem in all of this is that another team will overpay (RE: 5-6M/year) for his services, because he is a UFA, and the Leafs can't match that.

 

[nhlfan9191]

My guess is they try to bridge him for 2 years @ $3-4M but they honestly can't afford him at that price unless they make a salary move. With Mrazek still set to make 3.8M, the Cap only going up another $1M, and Sandin/Liljegren needing contracts, they still need to move off some salary. And that is even with 1.2M coming back from Kessel's salary retention coming off the books. Toronto needs one of their young prospects to finally make the roster and move off someone at the trade deadline (probably Ritchie or Kerfoot) to make it all work.

He won’t take less term or money then Mrazek got. He’s probably going to be looking for $4-5 million for 4 years given he’ll be 30.

 

[Ciao]

My guess is they try to sign him for 2 years @ $3-4M but they honestly can't afford him at that price unless they make a salary move. With Mrazek still set to make 3.8M, the Cap only going up another $1M, and Sandin/Liljegren needing contracts, they still need to move off some salary. And that is even with 1.2M coming back from Kessel's salary retention coming off the books. Toronto needs one of their young prospects to finally make the roster and move off someone at the trade deadline (probably Ritchie or Kerfoot) to make it all work.

Biggest problem in all of this is that another team will overpay (RE: 5-6M/year) for his services, because he is a UFA, and the Leafs can't match that.

I'm pretty sure the Leafs will find a way to make it work. If the player wants the team and the team wants the player that's a good start.

They won't get him for a song, but something else will have to happen to make room.

 

[golffuul]

He won’t take less term or money then Mrazek got. He’s probably going to be looking for $4-5 million for 4 years given he’ll be 30.

I agree. I don't think he'll be back with Toronto unless the Leafs fail to get out of the first round again and there is some re-shuffling of the roster.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Or on the other hand, he is a vezina quality goalie that some leafs fans think isn’t worth more than 3.5-4 mil.

Nah, we've seen this storyline many times before. He'll be a guy who "had 1 good year" the second he re-signs with the Leafs regardless of term and value. Or he will be the Vezina goalie the Leafs gave away if they don't. That's how it works on here lol...

From someone who has been a die hard Leaf fan for 30 years, I have just gotten used the the hate from other fanbases. It's part of the fun, for both sides.

All that said, I just cannot imagine Dubas letting Campbell walk. We have many ways to compensate his eventual raise. Provided Jack's demands aren't north of 6AAV by years end, I cannot see a deal not getting done. He is the heartbeat of our team. We will adjust around his deal IMO.

I've been dead ass wrong before when it came to Hyman, but I really do believe Jack wants to stay and would be more than willing to work with the club on seeing a fair extension signed for both club and player. Obviously there is a limit to which Jack can take a discount, and I would not expect him to sign for a boat load less, but he's our guy. It's becoming abundantly clear that the team loves playing in front of him.

 

[Dache]

Nah, we've seen this storyline many times before. He'll be a guy who "had 1 good year" the second he re-signs with the Leafs regardless of term and value. Or he will be the Vezina goalie the Leafs gave away if they don't. That's how it works on here lol...

From someone who has been a die hard Leaf fan for 30 years, I have just gotten used the the hate from other fanbases. It's part of the fun, for both sides.

All that said, I just cannot imagine Dubas letting Campbell walk. We have many ways to compensate his eventual raise. Provided Jack's demands aren't north of 6AAV by years end, I cannot see a deal not getting done. He is the heartbeat of our team. We will adjust around his deal IMO.

I've been dead ass wrong before when it came to Hyman, but I really do believe Jack wants to stay and would be more than willing to work with the club on seeing a fair extension signed for both club and player. Obviously there is a limit to which Jack can take a discount, and I would not expect him to sign for a boat load less, but he's our guy. It's becoming abundantly clear that the team loves playing in front of him.

Of course there are some homer fans of other teams that will do that. But to focus on this “leaf hate” and ignore your own fan bases homers is just as bias and where this imaginary leaf hate comes from

 

[Twine Tickler]

Of course there are some homer fans of other teams that will do that. But to focus on this “leaf hate” and ignore your own fan bases homers is just as bias and where this imaginary leaf hate comes from

I said:

I have just gotten used the the hate from other fanbases. It's part of the fun, for both sides.

I'm well aware of the idiotic Leaf fans as well

 

[Dache]

I said:

I have just gotten used the the hate from other fanbases. It's part of the fun, for both sides.

I'm well aware of the idiotic Leaf fans as well

But yet when I reply saying “on the other hand some leaf fans will say” you reply with “nah”

 

[Soundwave]

I could see the Oilers offer him 6 per especially if Mike Smith is going to be on LTIR next year. Koskinen and Smith out clears $6.7 million in cap room.

I'm sure Campbell's agent will also hammer home to him at age 29/30, this is probably one of this last chances at getting a big money contract. This is the reward for all the work you've put in for your entire life and this contract will also largely have to see him through the rest of his life once his playing days are long over.

 

[leafsfan5]

Campbell is a fascinating situation

He's been playing like an elite goaltender for this season and much of last, but doesn't have a lot of experience overall. Hell, we don't even know if he can handle the workload of a stater at this point. He appears to be a late bloomer like Tim Thomas and plays a bit of a unique style as well (similar to CuJo).

He hasn't made much before and is looking at life changing money for his family this offseason. On the market, someone may be desperate enough to offer him 6+, especially if he continues putting up elite numbers. If I was his agent I would wait for that and go to the highest bidder. But, Jack doesn't appear to function that way. He's honestly the nicest guy in the world and I think a fit is important for him. He might want to stay in Toronto for a bit less (5-5.5) and keep staying in the situation that's allowed him to blossom. We'll see what he wants to do, but I can understand both decisions

There are 3 guys I thought/think would take discount to stay in Toronto; Rielly, Hyman and Campbell. One of them took the discount, the other got paid. We'll see what the third does

 

[Twine Tickler]

But yet when I reply saying “on the other hand some leaf fans will say” you reply with “nah”

True, that was definitely misleading to what I meant. I can see what you're saying.

My original post on here was that there is always an overwhelming narrative of "There is no way the Leafs will be able to afford this unbelievable talent" during their last season under contract, and then if/when they eventually sign this unbelievable talent instantly goes right back to being a dog shit player that the Leafs overpaid. Its a story as old as time.

Not all posters are like this, but a decent amount. To me, we are in the phase of overvaluing the player to make the perception of Leafs not being able to resign him valid.

He is having a Vezina contending start to the season. I think that's fair to say. Does that mean he gets Vezina money on July 1? We will see. There are a lot of factors that will likely work against that. None bigger than the return of Petr Mrazek. Who will 100% take the cage more than people want to believe on here.

Mrazek is a very good goalie and he looked great in the pre-season. Jack was just as likely to go down with a similar injury Petr got, and in a reverse scenario I definitely could see Petr getting this level of love. Jack is playing great, I don't want what I am about to say to get muddied, because I do believe he's been our MVP. But the team in front of him has been lights out defensively. They've managed to make Joe Woll look good in games for crying out loud.

MAF was the only Vezina winner that I can recall ever winning a Vezina in a 1A/1B setting. It's becoming more of a trend nowadays, so maybe that list grows in time, but I'm not sure even Jack see's himself in the likes of the workhorses of the NHL (Hellybuck, Vasy, Bob, Demko...etc)

I think a fair deal will happen. Jack will get a well deserved raise, but I really don't think it will be outrageous personally

 

[Dache]

True, that was definitely misleading to what I meant. I can see what you're saying.

My original post on here was that there is always an overwhelming narrative of "There is no way the Leafs will be able to afford this unbelievable talent" during their last season under contract, and then if/when they eventually sign this unbelievable talent instantly goes right back to being a dog shit player that the Leafs overpaid. Its a story as old as time.

Not all posters are like this, but a decent amount. To me, we are in the phase of overvaluing the player to make the perception of Leafs not being able to resign him valid.

He is having a Vezina contending start to the season. I think that's fair to say. Does that mean he gets Vezina money on July 1? We will see. There are a lot of factors that will likely work against that. None bigger than the return of Petr Mrazek. Who will 100% take the cage more than people want to believe on here.

Mrazek is a very good goalie and he looked great in the pre-season. Jack was just as likely to go down with a similar injury Petr got, and in a reverse scenario I definitely could see Petr getting this level of love. Jack is playing great, I don't want what I am about to say to get muddied, because I do believe he's been our MVP. But the team in front of him has been lights out defensively. They've managed to make Joe Woll look good in games for crying out loud.

MAF was the only Vezina winner that I can recall ever winning a Vezina in a 1A/1B setting. It's becoming more of a trend nowadays, so maybe that list grows in time, but I'm not sure even Jack see's himself in the likes of the workhorses of the NHL (Hellybuck, Vasy, Bob, Demko...etc)

I think a fair deal will happen. Jack will get a well deserved raise, but I really don't think it will be outrageous personally

And I agree there are posters like that, though I feel the amount of them is being overblown, and there are just as many leaf posters who claim player X isn’t currently worth a big contract, then when the contract is signed and is bigger it’s called a great deal because of how great that player is. The Marner contract being a gress as t example. I’m not saying there aren’t posters that say biased things against the leafs. I’m saying this “leaf hate” concept is way overblown and happens to almost every fan base. Look at the threads about Drai, the guy is over 2 pts per game and there are posters claiming he’s a less thst ppg player away from McDavid. I think the issue is that some leaf posters look and hunt for this “hate” and that’s all the end up seeing.

 

[JohnHodgson]

You do realize that Dubas and Keefe never had any intentions of him being the starter right? Dubas wouldn't have brought in Mrazek if that were the case lol! Dubas's plan was to have a platoon style combo in net this season and going forward, injuries have derailed it slightly.I have no doubts when Mrazek is healthy, that he and Soup split the load going forward.

3.5M is a very reasonable offer for him.

I really hope you're trolling because you don't even know what you don't even know.

This is an example of someone just completely being out of touch with reality.

If Campbell keeps up this strong play over the course of the season, the number will be starting at 5.

3.5M is the going rate for a good third liner. Jack Campbell is looking to be a legitimate starter with very little mileage on him, meaning he can probably be great for another 5-6 years. You think a third liner is worth more the same as Campbell? Tanner Pearson makes $3M btw.

 

[TheFinalWord]

But yet when I reply saying “on the other hand some leaf fans will say” you reply with “nah”

You're in every Leaf thread with a negative opinion of whatever the Leafs are doing, or whatever player someone is pumping up. We all understand bias. Ours and yours.

 

[Dache]

You're in every Leaf thread with a negative opinion of whatever the Leafs are doing, or whatever player someone is pumping up. We all understand bias. Ours and yours.

What have I said negative about the leafs? This is exactly what I’m talking about. You’re looking for leaf hate where there isn’t. I actually quite like the leafs and most of their players. I watch almost as many leaf games as jets games. What I do have a problem with is the amount of leaf FANS that cry about leaf hate while simultaneously hating on every other team and having the most bias towards their own team and ignoring that aspect

 

[TheFinalWord]

What have I said negative about the leafs? This is exactly what I’m talking about. You’re looking for leaf hate where there isn’t.

I'm not looking for Leaf hate. It's all around. I also understand that the Leafs have a good number of idiot fans that cause much of this hate. But nobody is fooled by your, "who, me?" act. Every thread, my friend. Every thread.

 

[Twine Tickler]

And I agree there are posters like that, though I feel the amount of them is being overblown, and there are just as many leaf posters who claim player X isn’t currently worth a big contract, then when the contract is signed and is bigger it’s called a great deal because of how great that player is. The Marner contract being a gress as t example. I’m not saying there aren’t posters that say biased things against the leafs. I’m saying this “leaf hate” concept is way overblown and happens to almost every fan base. Look at the threads about Drai, the guy is over 2 pts per game and there are posters claiming he’s a less thst ppg player away from McDavid. I think the issue is that some leaf posters look and hunt for this “hate” and that’s all the end up seeing.

Pretty confident if there were a poll on this forum of the most hated NHL team the Leafs would win by a landslide. For the record, it is part of the fandom of sport, and I don't give a shit one bit. It just usually bleeds into opinions on here that can sometimes just be ridiculous.

not saying it doesn't happen for other teams, I just disagree that it happens to the same extent. But you're absolutely right in the fact that I have a biased perspective on this. So my opinion on this is inherently skewed.

 

[Dache]

I'm not looking for Leaf hate. It's all around. I also understand that the Leafs have a good number of idiot fans that cause much of this hate. But nobody is fooled by your, "who, me?" act. Every thread, my friend. Every thread.

And? Once again I’ll ask you to show me a post where I hate on the leafs then? It’s getting real tiring getting called a leaf hater because I don’t continually pump them up.
I’m ready for the incoming “I don’t have time to look through all your posts for the leaf hate that is apparently in every single thread yet hard to find”

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

5 years x $5.5mil

Mrazek, Ritchie and Kerfoot will likely be cap casualties. Dubas might need to move out some more picks to offload those players depending how their seasons finish.

Leafs will simply buy out Mrazek and Ritchie instead of attaching assets. These are not the Marlow contracts. They get 5 million in capspace by buying them both out.

Kerfoot will not need an asset attached to him if the Leafs did move him.

 

[Menzinger]

I suspect a fair number of contract predictions in the thread have undervalued the fact he's 30 and so far has a career high of just 29 games played (including a combination of reg season and playoffs).

 

[violaswallet]

I suspect a fair number of contract predictions in the thread have undervalued the fact he's 30 and so far has a career high of just 29 games played (including a combination of reg season and playoffs).

If Driedger got 3 times 3 in a Covid depressed environment, I think that’s not a major issue. I think he’s going to make about 5M a year due to his performance