Prospect Info: Ives 2024 Final NHL Draft Rankings

[Captain3rdLine]

They have their own perspective of course. I’m admittedly surprised they have Greentree ahead of MBN. That seems like something of a head scratcher to me

People have different criteria. My top 3 traits in my rankings are (in order):

1 Skating
2 Hockey IQ
3 Compete Level

It's probably safe to say most people don't follow my criteria. In my top 32, only one player with any of those three traits in question is ranked higher than consensus, which is Cole Beadoin (#20) -- not a very good skater, but with extremely high ranks across the board in literally every other aspect I look for.

With Hockey Prospect, you can immediately tell that skating is not weighed so heavily -- as well as Beaudoin, all of Greentree, Pascarak and O'Reilly all have higher-than-consensus rankings.

For me, I have Greentree much lower because he has problems in three areas I regard highly -- skating, compete level and two-way play.

I have Nygard light years ahead of Greentree because he is off-the-charts great in those exact areas. However, there is little question that Greentree is far better than Nygard in terms of pucks skills and vision, and this is ostensibly something Hockey Prospect weighed with greater emphasis.

It shouldn’t be surprising and I’m sure there’s many scouts and even teams that have Greentree over MBN. You might be forming a biased opinion of the prospects from there being some big MBN fans in here. Multiple scouting websites have Greentree over MBN and they are generally ranked closely in the same range.

The differences in ranking also don’t just come from a difference in criteria but probably as much if not more so from scouts evaluate and see those criteria. One scout may hate a players skating and other may like parts of it. And it’s even more difficult and all over the place when it comes to assessing hockey IQ.

 

[My3Sons]

I love Elick, but the Devils are extremely unlikely to go RD with a second straight 1st round pick (Nemec)... even if they did trade down. If any of LDs Buium, Dickinson or Silayev fall to #10, however, they all have to be considered serious possibilities for the Devils pick.


Outstanding post, thanks for sharing all this.

one thing that amazed were the stories one of the dads told me about the behind the scenes goings on at one SEC football program where his son played. Really run like a glorified travel sports team for middle school. They had constant parents complaining about who didn't get enough snaps, etc. Cursing and yelling at coaches. I get it on some level, there is real money at stake, but the reality is that you have five years to get on the field in NCAA football and make your mark and injuries being what they are in football I could argue you only really want to play in your draft year so you enter the NFL draft healthy. The guy's son had to hang it up after his senior year because of back problems. He'd played for three years going from special teams to TE and it just chewed him up. It was heartbreaking because this kid had all the intangibles and decent size and while he would never be a great NFL TE he would easily be a special teams ace for a number of years if he'd stayed healthy. I've learned a fair amount about what it actually takes to play past high school given that I live in an area that cranks out D1 kids in baseball and football and even some basketball with regularity.

 

[StevenToddIves]

It shouldn’t be surprising and I’m sure there’s many scouts and even teams that have Greentree over MBN. You might be forming a biased opinion of the prospects from there being some big MBN fans in here. Multiple scouting websites have Greentree over MBN and they are generally ranked closely in the same range.

The differences in ranking also don’t just come from a difference in criteria but probably as much if not more so from scouts evaluate and see those criteria. One scout may hate a players skating and other may like parts of it. And it’s even more difficult and all over the place when it comes to assessing hockey IQ.

Agreed, of course.

But I think if you asked 50 out of 50 scouts who had the higher compete level between Nygard and Greentree, you would get the same answer 50 times. Some just don't recognize it as anything more than an ancillary trait. I see it as absolutely crucial.

IQ is, admittedly, the most difficult thing to assess, and you can only do it through multiple viewings of a player. Unless of course we're talking about a Datsyuk or, conversely, Hugh Jessiman.

With Greentree? He's more capable -- much more -- of high-creativity plays with the puck than Nygard. Some might attribute that to IQ, but I don't -- rather, I view passing vision/creativity/acumen as a separate entity from IQ. And again -- anywhere outside of the offensive zone, Nygard is absolutely light years ahead of Greentree in terms of thinking and anticipating the game.

So, you're 100% correct in everything you're saying, of course. But I'm going to go on the record in saying that the pace in which Nygard thinks and plays the game is stratospherically beyond Greentree, and whether or not someone agrees with that is their own decision. I will add that if we go back the past few years and measure my rankings up against Hockey Prospect, I'm probably not going to be on the losing end of that battle haha.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Agreed, of course.

But I think if you asked 50 out of 50 scouts who had the higher compete level between Nygard and Greentree, you would get the same answer 50 times. Some just don't recognize it as anything more than an ancillary trait. I see it as absolutely crucial.

IQ is, admittedly, the most difficult thing to assess, and you can only do it through multiple viewings of a player. Unless of course we're talking about a Datsyuk or, conversely, Hugh Jessiman.

With Greentree? He's more capable -- much more -- of high-creativity plays with the puck than Nygard. Some might attribute that to IQ, but I don't -- rather, I view passing vision/creativity/acumen as a separate entity from IQ. And again -- anywhere outside of the offensive zone, Nygard is absolutely light years ahead of Greentree in terms of thinking and anticipating the game.

So, you're 100% correct in everything you're saying, of course. But I'm going to go on the record in saying that the pace in which Nygard thinks and plays the game is stratospherically beyond Greentree, and whether or not someone agrees with that is their own decision. I will add that if we go back the past few years and measure my rankings up against Hockey Prospect, I'm probably not going to be on the losing end of that battle haha.

By the way, you're welcome for the Hugh Jessiman reference, @Captain3rdLine -- Put it on my tab.

 

[TBF1972]

I am also on the Zeev train, he's my #4 overall and top defenseman available for a reason.

I don't think the Devils will be looking too hard at RD, but I've said (and am saying again) I think there are 4 LDs available who Fitzgerald and the scouting staff could consider quite strongly at #10 overall -- Buium, Dickinson, Silayev and Solberg.

With Buium, Dickinson and Silayev, we have to consider it a strong chance that they will all be off the board by #10 overall, but if one falls I'm sure they're all on the NJ radar.

Also, we should not rule out Stian Solberg -- the most effectively physical defender in the entire draft, and also a guy who can skate the lights out and put up some points while playing shut-down defense. I don't see Solberg being a "favorite" for the pick, but I would assume he's getting some serious talk at the NJ scouting meetings.

I'm with you on the Russian bias, but this year I feel there is also a Norwegian bias -- as Nygard and Solberg both deserve far higher than their consensus rankings. We'll see what's up with the Russian bias -- if Demidov falls past #3 (as Michkov did last year), it's simply idiocy on the part of the teams passing him up. The other five players to monitor in a strong Russian class would be Silayev, Chernyshov, Artamonov, Shuravin and Surin. (I'm omitting Gridin from this list because the teams passing on him might be more concerned with his lack of a 200-foot game or consistency of compete.)

@Guttersniped not liking this message is kind of disturbing

 

[TBF1972]

I divined what you just said from reading the comments you and @Guadana have made about them previously. I just don't see how a respected service with multiple scouts can simply downplay IQ and compete. Maybe skating being emphasized less I get if a guy plays with pace despite a deficiency. @Guttersniped was kind enough to explain that about Hameenaho after she watched him at prospect camp before last season. And sure every year there are some skating wizards that just never quite pan out or at least disappoint. A guy like Roslovic or even Zacha. They share one thing in common, they don't like to be hit or get dirty in the corners and while they can play, it clearly holds them back. They aren't afraid and they aren't really bullied on the ice but they will just avoid the hit or sort of stop and have to get over their sense of annoyance that they were hit before continuing. IQ deficiencies are pretty obvious as well. Some guys can eventually figure it out with experience and reps but look at what happened with McLeod. He was finally starting to look like the player NJ expected when they drafted him back in 2016. Putting aside his extended leave of absence it took him about 7 years to start to turn the corner and he was still in that process when he left.

So, my boys played sports with a number of college prospects over the years in multiple sports. I knew the parents and in some cases had various kids who have played in college to my house along the way. I think maybe I've had one kid that made it to Major League Baseball over? One kid a practice squad level NFL player and a number of Div 1 players. The ones who didn't love it all ended up hanging it up after the first training camp when they couldn't just walk onto the field as the best player. One boy was so good at his sport he was spotted at 14 by a college coach. To this day this kid is one of the most talented I've ever seen at this sport but he only did it because his parents insisted he do something other than go to class. He hated practices he hated games and he really hated being counted on as the best player on the team. How a professional scout can't see that (it's basically compete level) is beyond me. The kids that just want to rely on talent can only go so far.

I do talk like that with people who are ignorant and comment on things they clearly know nothing about. I live where 1/3rd of the top prospects play. I don't comment on the NBA draft, because I don't know anything about it. Perhaps you should practice the same thing. Every NHL exec I've heard has said varying degrees of "After pick #1 it's wide open." Every scout says the same thing. My eyes watching the 4 top WHLers say the same thing. Yet here comes professor snark from a no prospect market saying how dumb all of us are.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@Guttersniped not liking this message is kind of disturbing

@Guttersniped was the first to proactively mention Stian Solberg on the Devils draft threads, and I think I may have been the first person to rank him in a top 20 and, finally, a top 15 (he's currently my #14).

Speaking of Norwegians, I was sure I had the high-water ranking for Brandsegg-Nygard at #6, but Tony Ferrari just came out with his rankings for the Hockey News and also had Nygard at #6.

Ferrari's rankings are a ton of fun as he sort of could care less what the consensus says:

https://thehockeynews.com/news/ferraris-2024-nhl-draft-rankings-the-final-cut

 

[My3Sons]

it’s not about what you know it’s about how you share it. I’m sure that guy knows a lot about his local prospects. He’s still an insufferable asshole and much worse than me as that goes.

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

@Guttersniped was the first to proactively mention Stian Solberg on the Devils draft threads, and I think I may have been the first person to rank him in a top 20 and, finally, a top 15 (he's currently my #14).

Speaking of Norwegians, I was sure I had the high-water ranking for Brandsegg-Nygard at #6, but Tony Ferrari just came out with his rankings for the Hockey News and also had Nygard at #6.

Ferrari's rankings are a ton of fun as he sort of could care less what the consensus says:

https://thehockeynews.com/news/ferraris-2024-nhl-draft-rankings-the-final-cut

Yeah but until Louie Lamborghini and Massimo Maserati release their rankings, call me skeptical.

 

[Guadana]

@Guttersniped was the first to proactively mention Stian Solberg on the Devils draft threads, and I think I may have been the first person to rank him in a top 20 and, finally, a top 15 (he's currently my #14).

Speaking of Norwegians, I was sure I had the high-water ranking for Brandsegg-Nygard at #6, but Tony Ferrari just came out with his rankings for the Hockey News and also had Nygard at #6.

Ferrari's rankings are a ton of fun as he sort of could care less what the consensus says:

https://thehockeynews.com/news/ferraris-2024-nhl-draft-rankings-the-final-cut

Nygard is my number five. So.

I think about my top-20...

1 Celebrini
2 Demidov
3 Lindstrom
4 Buium
5 Nygard
6 Dickinson
7 Levshunov
8 Helenius
9 Chernyshov
10 Catton
11 Hage
12 Silayev
13 Iginla
14 Solberg (Im thinking a lot whom I like more, my 10-14 group is really hard for me to decide, I can change my mind in a second)
15 Yakemchuk
16 Parekh
17 Jiricek
18 Basha
19 Emery
20 Freij
21 Ritchie
22 Sennecke

Ten defensemen in top-20. What a draft. To draft defensemen.
Im working with my train of thoughts and Im starting to think I will be happy with any norweg this year. And it feels like I like them more than many other popular prospects from "my top-15". In fact Im putting him as 14 player but I like him as my top-10 player.

Nygard is my number 5th. I started it so I should protect my guy.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Nygard is my number five. So.

I think about my top-20...

1 Celebrini
2 Demidov
3 Lindstrom
4 Buium
5 Nygard
6 Dickinson
7 Levshunov
8 Helenius
9 Chernyshov
10 Catton
11 Hage
12 Silayev
13 Iginla
14 Solberg (Im thinking a lot whom I like more, my 10-14 group is really hard for me to decide, I can change my mind in a second)
15 Yakemchuk
16 Parekh
17 Jiricek
18 Basha
19 Emery
20 Freij
21 Ritchie
22 Sennecke

Ten defensemen in top-20. What a draft. To draft defensemen.
Im working with my train of thoughts and Im starting to think I will be happy with any norweg this year. And it feels like I like them more than many other popular prospects from "my top-15". In fact Im putting him as 14 player but I like him as my top-10 player.

Nygard is my number 5th. I started it so I should protect my guy.

@Guadana wins the "who will rank Nygard highest" battle haha.

 

[StevenToddIves]

New Stian Solberg video from the terrific David St. Louis. Absolutely worth watching. Both @Guadana and I have him at #14, and I'm guessing he will be in the top 20 for @evnted

If the Devils were to take Solberg at #10 -- not saying they will, just hypothetically -- it would be a good pick, because he's a unique player. We rarely see a player so physically punishing and air-tight defensively with this type of skating and offensive upside.

 

[Nico Hischier]

New Stian Solberg video from the terrific David St. Louis. Absolutely worth watching. Both @Guadana and I have him at #14, and I'm guessing he will be in the top 20 for @evnted

If the Devils were to take Solberg at #10 -- not saying they will, just hypothetically -- it would be a good pick, because he's a unique player. We rarely see a player so physically punishing and air-tight defensively with this type of skating and offensive upside.

I would draft that guy at 10 just after reading the title to the video

 

[evnted]

New Stian Solberg video from the terrific David St. Louis. Absolutely worth watching. Both @Guadana and I have him at #14, and I'm guessing he will be in the top 20 for @evnted

If the Devils were to take Solberg at #10 -- not saying they will, just hypothetically -- it would be a good pick, because he's a unique player. We rarely see a player so physically punishing and air-tight defensively with this type of skating and offensive upside.

even higher, i think ill have you both beat at the end of the day. blown away by how good he was against nhl caliber talent at the worlds (as well as how much he elevated his game in the ehl playoffs). if this kid got to run the table in juniors all year or beat up on college kids in much more visible ncaa games, i dont think thered be any question over whether or not he was a lotto pick

type of player winning teams need, and theres plenty of reason to believe he has an even higher level to reach once he gets a full year w farjestad. id obviously be a bit disappointed to pass on a helenius or mbn (or iginla for guadana ), but if solberg was the pick at 10 id have zero reservation about it

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Would be happy with Solberg as a pick and he’d also be a great fit given the offensive dmen we already have. Also may not be too far away from the NHL. Late 05 bday, give him a year maybe 2 in the AHL and he might be a full time NHLer.

Much preferred to Dickinson.

 

[Guadana]

even higher, i think ill have you both beat at the end of the day. blown away by how good he was against nhl caliber talent at the worlds (as well as how much he elevated his game in the ehl playoffs). if this kid got to run the table in juniors all year or beat up on college kids in much more visible ncaa games, i dont think thered be any question over whether or not he was a lotto pick

type of player winning teams need, and theres plenty of reason to believe he has an even higher level to reach once he gets a full year w farjestad. id obviously be a bit disappointed to pass on a helenius or mbn (or iginla for guadana ), but if solberg was the pick at 10 id have zero reservation about it

We will fight for the highest Solberg spot. Like I said Im thinking about 10-14 spot. Are you series to call him top-10? Ok. Are you bold enough? If you are, welcome on board. Time to through all "consensuses" away.

I will cry if we will pick Solberg over available Iginla. No, I will not.
More over - I will not cry about Catton and Helenius. It looks like in my heart I have Solberg in my top-7/8. I just need some time to admit it and put it on "paper".

 

[StevenToddIves]

Would be happy with Solberg as a pick and he’d also be a great fit given the offensive dmen we already have. Also may not be too far away from the NHL. Late 05 bday, give him a year maybe 2 in the AHL and he might be a full time NHLer.

Much preferred to Dickinson.

I have not seen a Dickinson vs. Solberg take from anyone yet; would be interesting to see since they have similar-type upsides in a vacuum. I'm working all weekend but maybe @evnted or @Guadana will have some free time.

I love both these kids and would be thrilled with either on the Devils. They're actually pretty close in my estimation -- although I have Dickinson at #5 and Solberg at #14, it's extremely close for me in that range this year and I admittedly have watched a lot more of Dickinson than Solberg. This is precisely why I'm often uncomfortable with the "numerical ranking system" which is sort of a necessary evil.

 

[evnted]

We will fight for the highest Solberg spot. Like I said Im thinking about 10-14 spot. Are you series to call him top-10? Ok. Are you bold enough? If you are, welcome on board. Time to through all "consensuses" away.

I will cry if we will pick Solberg over available Iginla. No, I will not.
More over - I will not cry about Catton and Helenius. It looks like in my heart I have Solberg in my top-7/8. I just need some time to admit it and put it on "paper".

yes. while im not quite locked in on things yet, im currently posting both norwegians top 10 w solberg rounding it out

every team in the league wants to add these types of players, and both explicitly showed they could elevate their games in the playoffs and on the national stage (against the best competition either of them have ever seen). whatever they lack in, say, playmaking upside, they both more than make up for in almost everything else

im not quite calling a seider like trajectory for solberg, i dont think hes rock solid enough defensively, but if he goes on to be this class's version of him, i won't be surprised

I have not seen a Dickinson vs. Solberg take from anyone yet; would be interesting to see since they have similar-type upsides in a vacuum. I'm working all weekend but maybe @evnted or @Guadana will have some free time.

I love both these kids and would be thrilled with either on the Devils. They're actually pretty close in my estimation -- although I have Dickinson at #5 and Solberg at #14, it's extremely close for me in that range this year and I admittedly have watched a lot more of Dickinson than Solberg. This is precisely why I'm often uncomfortable with the "numerical ranking system" which is sort of a necessary evil.

i like both enough to not really fight back on preferring solberg more, but i think dickinson's skating, instincts on the puck (particularly in transition and while carrying it in the offensive zone), and shot create a slight gap between the two of them, at the very least in terms of long term offensive contributions

what ill argue in opposition to myself, though, is dickinson has had 2 solid years in one of the best junior development systems in existence whereas solberg is coming from an underdeveloped national program and virtually unheard of valerenga team. ive always kind of had a hunch solbergs ideas on the puck are better than his results show, but ive only sporadically seen evidence of that (ie that one playoff goal everyone has on repeat). if getting under farjestad's umbrella helps him build off that in a better way than he couldve at home, then i think this discussion gets really tricky

 

[Guadana]

I have not seen a Dickinson vs. Solberg take from anyone yet; would be interesting to see since they have similar-type upsides in a vacuum. I'm working all weekend but maybe @evnted or @Guadana will have some free time.

I love both these kids and would be thrilled with either on the Devils. They're actually pretty close in my estimation -- although I have Dickinson at #5 and Solberg at #14, it's extremely close for me in that range this year and I admittedly have watched a lot more of Dickinson than Solberg. This is precisely why I'm often uncomfortable with the "numerical ranking system" which is sort of a necessary evil.

I have more limited views of Solberg. It was a weak norweg team against better competition and couple of shift by shift videos on youtube.
From my taste they are close and Solberg has some better tools. I like his game against transition more and with combo of faster skating he could be better defensive player on paper. Dickinson is little better skater I think. but Solberg looks more faster. Offensively? Its hard. Its hard to compare leagues, its hard to compare players because one was asked to play more defensive role than he can, I need to rewatch the other one to make better comparison.

 

[Goptor]

New Stian Solberg video from the terrific David St. Louis. Absolutely worth watching. Both @Guadana and I have him at #14, and I'm guessing he will be in the top 20 for @evnted

If the Devils were to take Solberg at #10 -- not saying they will, just hypothetically -- it would be a good pick, because he's a unique player. We rarely see a player so physically punishing and air-tight defensively with this type of skating and offensive upside.

If only his parents had remembered to write down the V in his first name for his birth certificate.

They created a violent monster.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I have not seen a Dickinson vs. Solberg take from anyone yet; would be interesting to see since they have similar-type upsides in a vacuum. I'm working all weekend but maybe @evnted or @Guadana will have some free time.

I love both these kids and would be thrilled with either on the Devils. They're actually pretty close in my estimation -- although I have Dickinson at #5 and Solberg at #14, it's extremely close for me in that range this year and I admittedly have watched a lot more of Dickinson than Solberg. This is precisely why I'm often uncomfortable with the "numerical ranking system" which is sort of a necessary evil.

I don’t see their upside similarily. The reason I’m not high on Dickinson and don’t want him at 10 is because I don’t like is upside or think he’s likely to be anything other than a decent 2nd pair guy.

I think Solberg has some legitimate Slavin type potential if he turns out. And he probably has an edge on Slavin in terms of mobility and puck handling. As I’ve said we should be taking a guy with that top line or pair upside still at #10. Guys with that upside who aren’t also risky or long-shots should still be available at 10. As you get a bit later into the round not as much.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I wanted to put up this video of LD Daniil Ustinkov, one of my favorite 3rd round targets for the 2024 draft. While there is no "highlight reel" which could do him justice, in a shift-by-shift video you can really get a feel for his advanced defensive acumen and excellent skating ability. He's also good with the puck -- while he'll never be your 1PP guy obviously, the skating combined with smart puck play could certainly give him mid-pairing, 30+ point upside.

 

[TBF1972]

I would draft that guy at 10 just after reading the title to the video

he is not psycho enough for @My3Sons

 

[Unknown Caller]

I don’t see their upside similarily. The reason I’m not high on Dickinson and don’t want him at 10 is because I don’t like is upside or think he’s likely to be anything other than a decent 2nd pair guy.

I think Solberg has some legitimate Slavin type potential if he turns out. And he probably has an edge on Slavin in terms of mobility and puck handling. As I’ve said we should be taking a guy with that top line or pair upside still at #10. Guys with that upside who aren’t also risky or long-shots should still be available at 10. As you get a bit later into the round not as much.

Not worth 10th overall for me. Slavin was a 4th round pick. Pelech was a 3rd round pick. A lot of those defensive defensemen with capped offensive upside that hit can be drafted later.

With a top 10 pick I'm prioritizing players with an elite skillset that are long gone after the top half of the first round.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Not worth 10th overall for me. Slavin was a 4th round pick. Pelech was a 3rd round pick. A lot of those defensive defensemen with capped offensive upside that hit can be drafted later.

With a top 10 pick I'm prioritizing players with an elite skillset that are long gone after the top half of the first round.

I guess we would have to define "elite skill set".

Solberg is a high-end skater who plays with a rare mix of elite physicality and high-end hockey IQ. He may be the highest-compete defenseman in the draft, give or take Buium. He has a high-end shot and plus puck handling ability. Defensively, right now he's probably behind only Silayev and Emery in the entire 2024 class.

I'd say the 2024 class has 4 defensemen who have the possibility of realizing what we would call "elite offensive upside" -- Parekh, Levshunov, Yakemchuk and Buium. We could maybe include Freij or Mews or Kiviharju as a dark-horse for that group. We also have a lot of guys with shut-down like potential who will never be huge point-producers -- Emery, Elick, Skahan, Shuravin, Ustinkov, Pitner.

But guys with the possibility of mixing shut down defense with 2PP/40+ point type upside are very difficult to find. In that category I'd probably say it's just Dickinson, Silayev and Solberg with maybe Badinka as a dark horse.

When you mix in Solberg's high-end skating and the fact that he's probably the most effectively physical player in the entire 2024 class, I'd say it's a pretty elite package. I'd say Solberg would be a very good pick at #10 overall, especially for a team like NJ where he could seriously improve the team in 4 areas of extreme need -- team speed, team physicality, LD depth and team defense.