Prospect Info: Ives 2024 Final NHL Draft Rankings

[StevenToddIves]

I can't wait to buy your novel and make my usual stupid comments about it. I'm sure it will be great if not quite as great as what I'd write.

Absolutely you are 100% correct.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Would be great. It sounds great, Steve.

I still think we could do better job together with our mind and knowledge than eliteprospects and dobbers. But I’m really happy that you started it by your own. That’s great.

Without getting into details, my recent draft writing apparently attracted the attention of Dobbers. But don't worry, I won't be working there for almost-free, I'll continue to write here for completely-free.

Or as I like to say: "Hockey's Future Devils Thread Draft Writing! It's where obscurity goes when needing to die slowly with an even lower profile!"

 

[Nubmer6]

With the time difference it would never work. You’d be getting ready to go to sleep and Steve would still be sleeping it off.

Umm... Have you seen what times he's posted at? I suspect it wouldn't be a problem.

 

[Guadana]

Ives 2024 NHL Draft Final Rankings

People may not realize how difficult it is to rank players for the NHL draft, but it’s a necessary evil to give a template of one’s talent assessments and projections. How to correctly rank two different player types at two different positions? Do we really like our #21 player that much more than our #24? Um… maybe? And then you’re judged for your rankings for pretty much ever.

The 2024 draft is even more difficult than usual. My top 2 is easy — Celebrini and Demidov are, to me, clearly a tier above the rest of the draft class. But I can honestly say that between 3-15, it’s never been closer in my estimation. This is to say that if someone was to present an argument why my #15 (Catton) was better than my #3 (Lindstrom), I would feel it was a worthwhile and legitimate debate. In most drafts, the gap between these picks in absolutely a chasm. In 2024? Not so much.

2024 is not the highest end class or the deepest, but it’s not weak either and features several strengths, primarily on the defensive side of the puck. Both the LD and RD classes are strong and have depth. Conversely, the class might be a bit thin at center, especially considering many of the players listed as centers probably don’t project to that position at the NHL level. I’ve made an effort to list players where I think they will play at the NHL level.

So, onto the rankings:

1. C Macklin Celebrini, Boston University NCAA there might be nothing so valuable in hockey as a true franchise center, and Celebrini has it all. Skill, speed, size, smarts, character — they’re all off the charts. When San Jose won the lottery, they won the lottery.
2. LW/RW Ivan Demidov, SKA-St. Petersburg MHL it’s my strong conviction that Demodov is closer to Celebrini than he is to the rest of the 2024 class. He easily ranks #1 in passing vision and puck-handling, he’s about Celebrini’s equal in hockey IQ and compete level. I’d he were a bit faster and bigger, he’d challenge for #1 overall, but as it stands he’s a terrific #2 overall.
3. C Cayden Lindstrom, Medicine Hat WHL power centers with high-end skating, skill, compete level, physicality and 6’4 frames don’t grow on trees, even if they’re the size of them. Though his draft-eligible season’s numbers were negatively affected by injury, his upside is absolutely immense.
4. LD Zeev Buium, University of Denver NCAA the highest-IQ defender of the draft plays with as much emotion as intelligence. His offensive upside is perhaps only eclipsed by Parekh among 2024 blueliners, but unlike many high-octane backend scorers Buium is also very strong in his own zone — which is why he’s my top defender in the draft class.
5. LD Sam Dickinson, London OHL the most complete defender in the draft combines a 6’3-205 frame with high-end skating, excellent intangibles and physicality with high proficiency on both sides of the puck. Destined to be a rock — an all-situation minutes-muncher on an NHL top pairing for years to come.
6. RW/C Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Mora IK Allvenskan (SWE-2) the runaway best power winger in the draft, Nygard combines high-end speed with elite compete level, hockey IQ and shooting. He’s far and away the best defensive forward in the draft and in the conversation for the most physical. He’s like a Norwegian Tkachuk brother, but faster. Between his excellence down low and in the crease and his ridiculous shooting talent, I don’t think 40+ goals at the NHL level is out of the question. I think I’ve answered all the questions why I have him ranked higher than anyone else. Nygard is worth it.
7. C/RW Konsta Helenius, Jukurit Liiga (FIN) people who have knocked Helenius for lack of elite tools should be knocked themselves, because his hockey IQ rivals Celebrini and Demidov and his compete level is similarly elite. Helenius is sublime both on and off the puck and lacks any weakness whatsoever — he’s very good in any situation, offense or defense, shooting, passing, puck-handling, zone entries, you name it. He might not ever score 100+ points, but he is a hell of a player and any team will be ecstatic to have him on it for many seasons to come.
8. RD Artyom Levshunov, Michigan State NCAA the Belarus product is an absolute athletic freak — combining high-end skating with a 6’3-205 frame and high-level checks across the board in his offensive and defensive tool kit. Levshunov sometimes riverboat gambles a bit too much offensively at the cost of defense, but if he can iron that out his upside is as high as any defender in the draft class.
9. LW Tij Iginla, Kelowna WHL with a stunning combination of an elite-level shot and elite-level hands, no player in the 2024 after Cerlebrini/Demidov is more dangerous as a small-area threat than Iginla. He needs barely a nanosecond and a millimeter to turn a nothing play into a laser beam past opposing goaltenders. Combined with smarts, an elite compete level and the edge he plays with, Iginla is a potential future all-star at the NHL level.
10. C Michael Hage, Chicago USHL I haven’t seen him ranked this high, but I’m more worried I have him ranked too low. He’s elite or near elite in every discernible hockey skill — skating, shooting, puck handling, passing vision, just name it. He’s 6’1-190 and plays with intensity, intelligence and an edge. If it all comes together, Hage has 1C upside at the highest levels.
11. RW/LW Igor Chernyshov, Moskva KHL a potential NHL top-line power forward, the 6’2-200 Russian live to crash creases and perfectly balances a tenaciously physical and impressively cerebral game. His hands are elite-level, this kid can stickhandle a jelly donut through an anthill. He plays a strong 200-foot game and even as one of the younger forwards in the second-best league in the world is expert at creating space for his linemates. This kid is an absolute stud.
12. LD Anton Silayev, Nishny Novgorod KHL we may never have seen a 6’7 player who can skate like Silayev — he’s almost a miracle of human evolution. Already a high-end defender in the KHL, the only question is whether his puck skills have another level to make him close to as brilliant on the offensive side of the puck as the defensive side. As I opened this by asserting my belief of how close the 2024 class is after the top 2 overall, I think Silayev would be a good pick much earlier than the #12 in front of his name might indicate.
13. RD Carter Yakemchuk, Calgary WHL with a mix of dynamic offensive capability and a bone-rattling physical game, Yakemchuk reminds me a lot of a young Dion Phaneuf. His hands are probably tops among 2024-eligible defensemen, he skates well and can absolutely blast the puck. If Yakemchuk can iron out a propensity to sacrifice smart defensive play to make risky rushes and huge hits, his upside is as high as any defender in the class.
14. LD Stian Solberg, Valerenga NOR the most physical defenseman in the 2024 class, Solberg can separate an unsuspecting opponent from their stick, helmet and perhaps even socks with a ferocity rarely seen among teenagers playing in a men’s league. But he’s not just that — Solberg is a deceptively cerebral defender with an advanced shut-down game, he can skate like the wind and his offensive upside is far higher than often credited. Solberg is a quick-twitch puck-handler, outstanding passer both in zone exits and in the offensive zone, and he can fire the puck. He’s a potential top-pairing NHL defender and, as such, in the conversation for best defender in the 2024 class.
15. LW/C Berkly Catton, Spokane WHL after Celebrini and Demidov, no 2024-eligible forward can claim more pure all-purpose offensive upside than Catton. He’s a dynamic playmaker and puckhandler with great shooting ability and an off-the-charts offensive IQ. To me, he’s very reminiscent of Cole Perfetti at the same age — sublime offensive ability, but some questions about good-but-not-great skating, size (5’10-160), 200-foot play and ability to stick at center at the highest levels. But in terms of raw offensive potential, after the top 2 forwards are gone Catton has a claim as most dynamic scoring threat in the 2024 class.
16. RD EJ Emery, US-NTDP a great hockey player does not necessarily need to be a complex one. Emery is, quite simply, the most polished shut-down defender int he 2024 class. He’s smart, positionally sound, and impossible to beat one-on-one. He’s big (6’3-185), fast as hell, physical and tenacious. Though his play without the puck is clearly what makes him exceptional, Emery is also better than advertised with the puck — though his offensive game is more functional than dynamic, his tools across the board are great — puck-handling, shooting, passing. Much like the US-NTDP paired him with Cole Hutson, he’s the guy to pair with your top offensive defenseman at any level, which makes him a potential top-pairing defenseman, which makes him worth drafting in the top half of the 2024 class.
17. LW Cole Eiserman, US-NTDP he’s not just the best shooter in the 2024 class, but —aside from of course Conor Bedard — the best pure shooter the NHL draft has seen since Auston Matthews. Eiserman is also an excellent puckhandler with strong skating, good size (6’0-195) and capable of high-end passing. So, why is he outside my top 10? Simply put, Eiserman has forged himself into too much of a one-trick pony — he eschews every nuance of the game in order to shoot, shoot and shoot more. His 200-foot game — and often his effort levels — can accurately be described as *poor*. If he figures it out, Eiserman has absolute superstar potential. But first, he needs to figure it out.
18. RD Adam Jiricek, HC Plzen CZE an injury plagued draft-eligible season may have hurt his draft status, but all the ability for a two-way top-four NHL defender is here. Jiricek is a strong skater who offers high intelligence, high compete, a projectable 6’2-170 frame and extremely strong play on both sides of the puck.
19. RD Zayne Parekh, Saginaw OHL no player has the ability to make me one day eat my criticism and lower-than-consensus ranking than Parekh, but it’s up to him. Without a doubt, Parekh features the most pure offensive upside of any defender in the 2024 class, and maybe since Luke Hughes. He’s a terrific skater with absolutely elite-across-the-board tools in stick handling, playmaking and shooting. But as dynamic as his offensive game is, his defensive game is equivalently porous. Currently, his defensive lapses account for as many chances against as his dazzling ability creates chances for. If he can continue to progress offensively and tighten up — a lot — defensively, Parekh has Norris Trophy-quality potential.
20. C Cole Beaudoin, Barrie OHL if I’m ranking compete level among 2024 draft-eligibles, Beaudoin is at the top of the list. Absolutely elite. He’s also the best available defensive center, incredibly smart and highly physical. A true throwback stylistically, Beaudoin is more than this — he’s an outstanding shooter and high-end passer whose down low play might only trail Nygard in the entire class. He plays far bigger than his 6’2-205 frame and is probably, pound-for-pound, stronger than anyone available. The only reason I don’t have him in my top 10 is because his singular weakness is skating. But Beaudoin has adapted his game so well around this that I have no doubt he’ll be a high-end middle-6 center at the NHL level.
21. LW Andrew Basha, Medicine Hat WHL I have Basha about even with Sennecke — I’d say their playmaking abilities are about even, and while Sennecke gets a slight edge in size, shooting and dangling, Basha is a far better skater with a more consistent level of 200-foot play. There is definite potential of a high-scoring, top 6 NHL winger with Basha.
22. RW Beckett Sennecke, Oshawa OHL a late riser up many high-profile draft boards, Sennecke is without a doubt an elite puck-handler and playmaker with high offensive capability. However, I don’t feel his pure scoring upside is quite on the level of a Catton or Iginla, and his 200-foot game and compete level lack any consistency. There’s certainly NHL top 6 upside if he can tighten up his overall game, and thus he’s worth a pick around the #20 range.
23. LW/C Yegor Surin, Loko Yaroslavl MHL the most proactively physical forward in the draft, Surin plays a Tkachuk-style game and, although his talent level is not quite that elite, he has the requisite skill to play a secondary scoring role at the highest levels. Specifically, his shot is absolutely lights out and borderline elite, while his skating and offensive tool kit are good-but-not-great across the board. His two-way game and compete are top-notch, and his power and ferocity make him worth a pick on Day One of the 2024 draft.
24. LW Nikita Artamonov, Torpedo KHL check-plus across the board tool-wise, Artamonov has a singular elite skill in his dazzling and creative playmaking ability. This kid can flat out dish the puck. When combined with a strong-across-the-board skill foundation and high-end mix of hockey IQ and compete level, there’s a strong chance you’re getting a top 6 forward.
25. C Sacha Boisvert, Muskegon USHL toolsy and smart with a projectable 6’2-180 frame, Boisvert excels in every offensive ability — shooting, puckhandling, playmaking, and thinking the game in the O zone. His defensive capability is generally quite good, though he can be forced into mistakes when frustrated. If he was a high-end skater I’d have him top 20 because I really like his overall game and skill.
26. LD Matvei Shuravin, Krasnaya MHL if you miss out on Silayev at the top of the draft, you’ll have a shot at Shuravin later, and he’s almost a mini-Silayev in many ways. He’s 6’4 (and allegedly still growing) and one of the better skating defensemen in the 2024 class. He might be the best backwards skater available, invaluable for a D. He’s extremely smart and effective defensively, and his offense shows potential in the playmaking and puck-carrying areas, though his singular weakness is a poor shot.
27. RD Dominik Badinka, Malmo SHL a 6’3-185 defense-first rearguard with high-level skating and a borderline elite hockey IQ, there’s really nothing not to like here. Great gaps, positioning and anticipation — he’s hard to out-think if you’re an opposing offense. Hasn’t shown much offense, but this could be the context of his play-style — Badinka is actually a high-end outlet passer who is deceptively intelligent and creative with the puck.
28. RW Ryder Ritchie, Prince Albert WHL one of the most infectiously likable players in the entire draft, Ritchie plays a lightning-fast pace with a ton of headiness and heart and no short amount of skill. Probably more of a middle-6 guy than a top liner at the highest levels, but he’s certainly capable of complimenting high skill players with his speed and frenetic forechecking.
29. C/LW John Mustard, Waterloo USHL the former Bergen Catholic standout is one of the toughest players to rank, as his upside eclipses several of the players ahead of him on this list but he’s a far rawer overall product. Mustard’s mix of high-end-to-elite skating, shooting and compete with a very good, if unpolished, complimentary set of abilities absolutely give him 1st line, star upside at the highest levels of hockey.
30. C Jett Luchanko, Guelph OHL a versatile jack of all trades with high-end intangibles and excellent skating, Luchanko is a coaches’ dream. Put him on either wing or up the middle, on the first line or the third, on the PP or PK — he’ll just go out and produce fantastic results. More of a playmaker than pure scorer, but certainly a talented kid who can drive a line.
31. RD Charlie Elick, Brandon WHL maybe not as polished in his overall game as some of the RDs ahead of him on this ranking, Elick still offers huge potential as a 6’3-210 physical backend beast who can skate the lights out. Not a “skates-well-for-a-big-man” type — Elick can flat out fly. With his length, power and speed Elick’s shut-down capability is worth a 1st round pick even if his play with the puck will never grade as high-end.
32. LW Teddy Stiga, US-NTDP not even close to the most talented forward on the US Development team, but no one was close to Stiga as my favorite. He plays every shift like he was shot out of a cannon — a speedy, nonstop-motor player who you almost forget how skilled he is because so much of his game is pure energy. A fan-favorite NHL middle 6 forward for many seasons to come.
33. LW Marek Vanacker, Brantford OHL lanky and speedy high-floor winger who features high-level abilities in shooting and two-way play. Vanacker is a smart, high-motor player with versatility and utility; one of the best penalty killers in the entire CHL.
34. LD Daniil Ustinkov, ZDC SWI a high-end skater with as polished a defensive game as any blue liner available for the 2024 class, the only question with Ustinkov is his two-way potential. I look forward to arguing with @evnted for the next decade whether the best Swiss D in the 2024 class is Ustinkov or Muggli.
35. RW Emil Hemming, TPS FIN an explosive skater with an elite shot who likes to physically bash opponents with his 6’2-195 frame, Hemming has all the makings of a high-end NHL power forward. Needs to find his consistency and plays north-south far better than east-west, but the potential is certainly alluring enough that he’ll probably be picked in the first round.
36. LD Will Skahan, US-NTDP a 6’4-210, physical shut-down specialist — Skahan doesn’t offer much more than a functional offensive game, but he’s actually a very good skater and thinks the game quite well for such a punishing hitter.
37. C Linus Eriksson, Djurgardens Allvenskan smart and quick, Ericksson lacks any showcase elite tool but is good-across-the-board at an extremely valuable position and reliable in his versatility and utility. A high-floor option as a likely 3C with the offensive capability to slot up to the top 6 in a pinch.
38. LD Alfons Freij, Vaxjo Jr. SWE Jr. a home run swing as early as the 1st round, Freij combines elite skating with sublime levels of puckhandling and playmaking in a 6’1-190 frame. He’s a breakout and break-in machine who is a plus player all over the ice except the defensive zone, where he needs a great deal of work. If he can alleviate his distaste for physicality, and he’s certainly big enough, he is a very high-upside option.
39. LW Tanner Howe, Regina WHL this is a player who deserves great credit for rising from Conor Bedard’s significant shadow and putting his team on his shoulders all season long. A high-end playmaker with plus skills across the board, Howe’s overall game is elevated by his intelligence and character.
40. LW Kevin He, Niagara OHL maybe my favorite true sleeper for the 2024 draft, He combines a projectable 6’0-180 frame with elite-level skating and shooting. He topped 30 goals despite being the only notable offensive talent on a very poor team, and displays strong two-way ethic, intelligence and effort. To me, this all adds up to potential top 6 upside at the highest levels.
41. LD Leon Muggli, EV Zug SWI an outstanding skater who plays a translatable shut-down style of defense despite being slightly undersized at 6’0-170, Muggli is more than just this. He’s also a tremendously efficient and creative passer who excels at the breakout and might have NHL 2PP upside offensively.
42. LD Aron Kiviharju, HIFK FIN since the biggest knocks against him are an injury-plagued amateur career and small frame at 5’10-165, no one might have a better chance of making me eat my words with a mid-2nd round ranking quite like Kiviharju. He’s an excellent skater with elite-level passing and stickhandling ability, capable of posterizing defenders with his quick edges and ridiculous dangles. He’s passable defensively outside of his struggles with in-tight battles. A 1st round talent mostly set back by circumstance.
43. RW Tarik Pascarak, Prince George WHL another extremely difficult player to project, Pascarak is high-end across the board in every imaginable hockey ability and intangible except skating, and the skating is absolutely concerning. Pascarak is one of the few prospects who has ever polarized me with myself, as his skill is top 5 on this entire list but his skating is probably dead last. If he can improve to even an average level, he’ll make me regret this mid-2nd round ranking and I’d be thrilled with such a result.
44. LW/RW Liam Greentree, Windsor OHL a player whose projection is clouded by inherent dichotomy — Greentree offers a top-10-caliber juxtaposition of size and elite skill, but a 7th round combination of skating and two-way play. His compete level is in need of great improvements, as well. If he hits he can score a ton at any level, but there are a lot of question marks to overcome.
45. LW/RW Matvei Gridin, Muskegon USHL the skill set is undeniable — dynamic abilities skating, shooting and puckhandling and also an ability to dish the puck. The defensive play is a big problem, however, and Gridin’s consistency of compete level often lags. A potential home run pick if he can flip the switch, but first he needs to find the switch.
46. LW Ondrej Kos, Ilves U20 FIN Jr. this physical, high-motor Czech winger plays with so much heart you wonder how it fits into his lanky 6’2-155 frame. He skates quite well and plays with the requisite skill to fit into an NHL top 6 if he can fill out and build up the core strength.
47. RD Tory Pitner, Youngstown USHL I call him “The King of Calm” for his unique ability to make calm and savvy plays with and without the puck regardless of the amount of pressure against him. He might lack elite physical tools but his in-game understanding and on-ice awareness are as good as they come. I give him an extremely high chance of becoming a reliable 3rd pairing guy at the NHL level.
48. C Dean Letourneau, St. Andrews College PHC this 6’7 giant is extremely difficult to project because the levels he’s played at and the level he is at now are light years from the competition he is in for and where he is capable of winding up. If you want to catch lightning in a bottle, he’s a good skater with a potential high-end skill set who shows some Tage Thompson-like flashes from time to time. But you’re also going to have to wait a long time and hope the development arc is quite steep.
49. RD Harrison Brunicke, Kamloops WHL his 6’2-180 frame and very good skating are enticing, but he’s not as far along in his overall game as some of the higher RDs on this list. The skills are there, however, and Brunicke’s upside as a mid-pairing, two-way defensemen is not unreachable.
50. RW Justin Poirier, Baie-Comeau QMJHL it’s hard to not like a 5’8 pure goal-scorer who plays with a power forward mindset. In some ways, he reminds me of a young Brian Gionta. Poirier’s slightly-above-average skating is my primary concern, but if he can improve upon this he offers a great deal of upside in the 2nd or 3rd round.
51. C Kamil Bednarik, US-NTDP he won’t dazzle you with any particular skill, but it’s difficult to deny a true two-way center who plays hard and lacks any specific weakness in his game. He’s effective on any line you plug him into, and Bednarik should develop into an excellent 3C at the highest levels.
52. RW Miguel Marques, Lethbridge WHL a high-end playmaker who utilizes a very complete offensive skill set, Marques is just held back by average size (5’11-170) and good-but-not-great skating. He plays with a lot of headiness and heart which make him a really fun player to watch. I’d say he has 2nd line, secondary-scoring upside and a pretty nice floor, too.
53. RW Carson Wetsch, Calgary WHL I have a lot of time for a 6’2-210 power forward who plays a traditional, north/south interior game with a ton of ferocity and heart. Wetsch can also fire the puck — his shot is nothing short of terrific. He features a decent, all-purpose set of skills. Were he more than a slightly-above-average skater I’d be considering him for the late 1st/early 2nd, but I still think the mix of size, physicality, high-motor and smarts makes him a pretty good bet to be an NHL 3rd liner.
54. C/LW Kieron Walton, Sudbury OHL there’s a lot to like about a 6’6-210 kid who skates well, features a heavy shot, works hard at both ends of the rink and thinks the game well. He’s not as proactively physical as his size would indicate and he’s a bit tentative offensively, but the skills are fairly impressive and there’s certainly a possibility of a late bloomer with Walton. If you believe in his upside, you take him higher than this and if you think he can stick at center he might be worth a pick in the 30s.
55. LW Eriks Mateiko, Saint John QMJHL a hard working, intense physical player who is strong as an ox at 6’5-210. Mateiko also features an elite ability in his shooting — it’s not just an absolute rocket of a shot, but he gets it off with amazing speed and economy of motion and the accuracy is very good, as well. Between his ability to dig out rebounds in the crease and deflect pucks, there is a possibility of a good goal-scorer at the professional level. The caveat is that the young Latvian is simply not a good skater, which certainly limits the upside.
56. LD Veeti Vaisanen, Kookoo FIN sometimes the smart pick is not the sexy pick, and taking a very steady defensive defenseman who plays an economical and cerebral game without much physicality or flash isn’t really going to excite the fan-base. Vaisanen also is very smart in his puck decisions and is a high-end skater, which leads me to believe he has the potential of a very solid bottom 4 blue liner at the highest levels despite so-so size at 6’0-170.
57. RW Hiroki Gojsic, Kelowna WHL when you have a late bloomer who is 6’3-190 and skates as well as Gojsic, you certainly want to shoot him up your rankings. This is a player I really wish was eligible for next year’s draft, because the skill set is enticing and it’s difficult to tell what his development curve will be like with a full season as Tij Iginla’s linemate. I really like this player and am certainly open to the possibility he deserves a higher ranking than the late 2nd round.
58. C Julius Miettinen, Everett WHL likely a player to be drafted far earlier than this, because he’s a 6’3 center who skates well and is a very good playmaker. Miettinen has a lot to work on in terms of 200-foot play and his shooting is problematic, but there is certainly potential to be a solid middle 6 NHL center.
59. RD Henry Mews, Ottawa OHL the production has not been able to, as yet, match the potential or skill set, but Mews is an exceptionally fast player capable of high-end puck handling and passing plays. If he can tighten up the defensive and physical games, his speed will be very enticing to NHL teams.
60. LD Timur Kol, Omskie Krylia VHL there is a lot to be said for a 6’3-200 two-way defenseman with an absolute howitzer of a shot from the point. He’s a raw prospect, but I like his projection far more than some notable defensemen I’ve left off this list.
61. RW/C Adam Jecho, Edmonton WHL another work in progress here, but it’s tough to ignore a 6’5 forward with the ability to play up the middle who skates well and features a high-end shot. A likely 2nd round pick who will need several seasons of seasoning, but the potential is certainly projectable.
62. RD Adam Kleber, Lincoln USHL a big, strong 6’5 defenseman who takes care of his own zone first and is willing to play the body. He might only have bottom-pair upside, but he has a very high chance of making the NHL in that capacity with his type of game.
63. RW Kasper Pikkarainen, TPS U20 FIN Jr. extremely raw but projectable, he’s one of the youngest players for the 2024 draft and features size (6’3-195), good skating, an impressive skill foundation and the willingness to get his nose dirty. Son of former Devil Ilk Pikkarainen, it will be fun to watch his progression over the next couple of seasons.
64. RW Brodie Ziemer, US-NTDP he might lack the high-end speed or skill of a Teddy Stiga, but Ziemer matches the spark plug in heart and intelligence. Ziemer is the consummate will-do-anything-to-win guy, and he’s a terrific forechecker and two-way forward. He should catch on with an NHL bottom 6.
65. LW Mac Swanson, Fargo USHL I like this kid so much I’m literally extending my list just to include him. Sure he’s 5’7-150 and lacks elite skating, but he fears nothing and literally is willing to play a more interior game than many 6’0+ forwards in the 2024 class. He possesses a high-end mix of intelligence and compete level, and also has a terrific set of hands. He has one near-elite physical tool — his passing ability is absolutely creative and dazzling. No one should bet against this huge-hearted native Alaskan.

It’s too bad everybody knows that Solberg is awesome. It would be great to draft two Norwegians from this draft.

Overall I’m quite happy with my draft. I would call it very good. May be it would be the first time when after three years our latest 6-7 rounds picks from MHL are not second-third best players on every draft. 2022 is still my favorite yet. If they would pick Ivanov instead Brennan it would be better.

 

[StevenToddIves]

The draft rankings video podcast I'm featured on is up. I warn you all it's really long haha.

I come on at about the 25 minute mark, if that helps shorten things. I think we start discussing the actual prospects is about the 46 minute mark, mostly because I'm bad at knowing when to shut up. If you want to know how weird I am, the 25-46 minute might be funny to watch.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don't always agree with Scouching, but I feel like he did a nice job on this video explaining why Dominik Badinka is one of the more underrated names for the 2024 draft.

 

[Xirik]

The draft rankings video podcast I'm featured on is up. I warn you all it's really long haha.

I come on at about the 25 minute mark, if that helps shorten things. I think we start discussing the actual prospects is about the 46 minute mark, mostly because I'm bad at knowing when to shut up. If you want to know how weird I am, the 25-46 minute might be funny to watch.

It was a great podcast. you come across as a passionate and honest guy which from what I've seen from the more popular draft rankers is very rare.

Now I can do the cliche thing of saying "you know that famous guy? I knew him before he was famous! he used to live here on these mean Devils streets"

 

[StevenToddIves]

It was a great podcast. you come across as a passionate and honest guy which from what I've seen from the more popular draft rankers is very rare.

Now I can do the cliche thing of saying "you know that famous guy? I knew him before he was famous! he used to live here on these mean Devils streets"

Mr. Mosier wants to do a post-draft podcast so I guess I'll do one more of these after the draft.

 

[Guadana]

Mr. Mosier wants to do a post-draft podcast so I guess I'll do one more of these after the draft.

You can connect with some “locked on” podcasts. May be try to join dobbers on their video conference. You can try to make your own YouTube channel.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think they picked the wrong song for this Stian Solberg video, I would've went with Megadeth's "Killing Is My Business and Business Is Good".

Regardless, I'm done defending my #14 ranking of him. Stian Solberg is outstanding at hockey.

 

[Guadana]

I think they picked the wrong song for this Stian Solberg video, I would've went with Megadeth's "Killing Is My Business and Business Is Good".

Regardless, I'm done defending my #14 ranking of him. Stian Solberg is outstanding at hockey.

Damn WC. He could fall in the draft but now I dont think he will.
Mastodon "High road" would be much better choice.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Damn WC. He could fall in the draft but now I dont think he will.
Mastodon "High road" would be much better choice.

Well, I think we can both agree that the Nickelodeon-theme song or toddler toy commercial jingle or whatever they had playing didn't do justice to Solberg's bone-jarring body-checking.

 

[longislanddevil]

Fantastic podcast. I vividly remember you pumping Seider’s tires, as well as expressing caution about Broberg due to several red flags. I didn’t see anyone in the draft community with Seider ranked higher than Broberg. You are right way more often than wrong and take your prospect evaluations seriously for that reason. You are truly a gift to us Devils fans and selfishly hope you are here for a long time to come. If you are right about MBN, it’ll be another huge feather in your cap. You have him rated significantly higher than anyone else. Given your track record, I’ll be ecstatic if we take him at 10OA.

EDIT: I can’t help but laugh at some of the so-called experts’ mock drafts. It is abundantly clear some of these folks have little knowledge of teams’ organizational needs or draft tendencies

 

[StevenToddIves]

Fantastic podcast. I vividly remember you pumping Seider’s tires, as well as expressing caution about Broberg due to several red flags. I didn’t see anyone in the draft community with Seider ranked higher than Broberg. You are right way more often than wrong and take your prospect evaluations seriously for that reason. You are truly a gift to us Devils fans and selfishly hope you are here for a long time to come. If you are right about MBN, it’ll be another huge feather in your cap. You have him rated significantly higher than anyone else. Given your track record, I’ll be ecstatic if we take him at 10OA.

EDIT: I can’t help but laugh at some of the so-called experts’ mock drafts. It is abundantly clear some of these folks have little knowledge of teams’ organizational needs or draft tendencies

Thanks for watching!

We're all going to be wrong sometimes and right sometimes, but when we learn from precedent and remove our prejudices, we're going to be right more often.

I'm not the only one high on Nygard -- it's pretty much unanimous among myself, @Guadana and @evnted that he's a terrific player. I feel he's got two "prejudicial" strikes against him -- one, that he lacks the gaudy stats which attract the analytic writers and two, the fact he's Norwegian. People are almost unconsciously mistrusting of obscure nationals -- we saw it with Kopitar, we saw it with Draisaitl, now we're seeing it with Nygard.

The way I look at it? How often do we see traditional power forwards with elite combinations of speed, shooting, hockey IQ and compete level? I'd say very very rarely.

There are always several players I'm notably higher on than the consensus and several guys I'm lower on. I was the first ranking I saw with Solberg in my top 15, but quickly thereafter we saw him on a few more. But @Guttersniped was already raving about him when I did my write-up. I think I'm the only guy I've seen with Hage in my top 10 and with Beaudoin in my top 20 and with Mustard in my first round. Time will tell if I'm right on any of these guys.

I still feel there are many directions the Devils could go at #10 overall. Helenius is still the smart money in some ways because the Devils need help at C, but the Devils scouts have also certainly realized that Nygard, more of a Fitzgerald-type-player, also has done well at center in Allvenskan. But the the Devils also need bolstering at LD and certainly one of Buium, Dickinson or Silayev could fall. I don't even think Solberg or Hage are entirely unrealistic picks, and we haven't even touched on Catton and Eiserman. That's a large group of players who could all wind up the Devils pick in the 1st round.

 

[BurntToast]

I have been on the Zeev train for a while, if he drops, I would be ecstatic for the Devils get him at 10.

I have a curious question: There have been some solid 1OA recently, but do you feel like teams at the top of the draft are more obligated to take the consensus ranked players?

It would have taken some “stones” if the Rangers GM took another player not Kakko. What about Nolan Patrick?

Wright falling in the draft was such a shock to analysts.

Sometimes, It feels almost like W not to win the draft lottery.

I also hate the Euro/Russian bias that lingers in the draft.

 

[njdevils1982]

The draft rankings video podcast I'm featured on is up. I warn you all it's really long haha.

I come on at about the 25 minute mark, if that helps shorten things. I think we start discussing the actual prospects is about the 46 minute mark, mostly because I'm bad at knowing when to shut up. If you want to know how weird I am, the 25-46 minute might be funny to watch.

nothing weird at all with someone with great insight and passion.

right on man!

 

[Nubmer6]

I'm not the only one high on Nygard -- it's pretty much unanimous among myself, @Guadana and @evnted that he's a terrific player. I feel he's got two "prejudicial" strikes against him -- one, that he lacks the gaudy stats which attract the analytic writers and two, the fact he's Norwegian. People are almost unconsciously mistrusting of obscure nationals -- we saw it with Kopitar, we saw it with Draisaitl, now we're seeing it with Nygard.

Just FYI, in case you don't subscribe or haven't read Ryan Novozinsky on NJ.com, he's VERY high on Nygard.

He wrote about him back on May 9, and mentioned again on the 17th.

 

[Guadana]

I have been on the Zeev train for a while, if he drops, I would be ecstatic for the Devils get him at 10.

I have a curious question: There have been some solid 1OA recently, but do you feel like teams at the top of the draft are more obligated to take the consensus ranked players?

It would have taken some “stones” if the Rangers GM took another player not Kakko. What about Nolan Patrick?

Wright falling in the draft was such a shock to analysts.

Sometimes, It feels almost like W not to win the draft lottery.

I also hate the Euro/Russian bias that lingers in the draft.

Wright falling wasn't shock. At least for some writers. At least pronman started some heating around it. I called Slafkovsky number one before WC, I called Wright number 4 way before Pronman. And still because I'm scary to make more bold takes.

I'm happy that Steve joined my hype train of Nygard. I felt alone but after Steve said about him the same things, it was much easier for me because now Steve is doing all the work. Now Novozinski is writing about Nygard. Its good. Now its on the Fitz side.

Nolan Patrick was injury prone. Its not about hockey mostly.
So I still would prefer to win the lottery. Celebrini is great in all three zones, Demidov is one of the talentest players in the last 5 drafts, still with good compete level, Lindstrom is rare big interior player with high skills level. But I still like our position on the draft. We will have 4/may be more obvious options to draft player with top 6/top 4 real potential and top line ceiling.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I have been on the Zeev train for a while, if he drops, I would be ecstatic for the Devils get him at 10.

I have a curious question: There have been some solid 1OA recently, but do you feel like teams at the top of the draft are more obligated to take the consensus ranked players?

It would have taken some “stones” if the Rangers GM took another player not Kakko. What about Nolan Patrick?

Wright falling in the draft was such a shock to analysts.

Sometimes, It feels almost like W not to win the draft lottery.

I also hate the Euro/Russian bias that lingers in the draft.

I am also on the Zeev train, he's my #4 overall and top defenseman available for a reason.

I don't think the Devils will be looking too hard at RD, but I've said (and am saying again) I think there are 4 LDs available who Fitzgerald and the scouting staff could consider quite strongly at #10 overall -- Buium, Dickinson, Silayev and Solberg.

With Buium, Dickinson and Silayev, we have to consider it a strong chance that they will all be off the board by #10 overall, but if one falls I'm sure they're all on the NJ radar.

Also, we should not rule out Stian Solberg -- the most effectively physical defender in the entire draft, and also a guy who can skate the lights out and put up some points while playing shut-down defense. I don't see Solberg being a "favorite" for the pick, but I would assume he's getting some serious talk at the NJ scouting meetings.

I'm with you on the Russian bias, but this year I feel there is also a Norwegian bias -- as Nygard and Solberg both deserve far higher than their consensus rankings. We'll see what's up with the Russian bias -- if Demidov falls past #3 (as Michkov did last year), it's simply idiocy on the part of the teams passing him up. The other five players to monitor in a strong Russian class would be Silayev, Chernyshov, Artamonov, Shuravin and Surin. (I'm omitting Gridin from this list because the teams passing on him might be more concerned with his lack of a 200-foot game or consistency of compete.)

 

[HughesCorporation]

love the hard thought put into this!
charlie elick seems like a sweet fit with luke hughes for years to come (trade down for a goalie and center) too difficult?

dickinson with nemec has a nice ring also,, but he wont be there

I think Anton Silayev is my guy here, even though the 6'7" scares me. the FA market for big defensemen is getting expensive so a big guy on a rookie contract is value

 

[Guttersniped]

 

[My3Sons]

View attachment 881223
View attachment 881225

They have their own perspective of course. I’m admittedly surprised they have Greentree ahead of MBN. That seems like something of a head scratcher to me

 

[StevenToddIves]

They have their own perspective of course. I’m admittedly surprised they have Greentree ahead of MBN. That seems like something of a head scratcher to me

People have different criteria. My top 3 traits in my rankings are (in order):

1 Skating
2 Hockey IQ
3 Compete Level

It's probably safe to say most people don't follow my criteria. In my top 32, only one player with any of those three traits in question is ranked higher than consensus, which is Cole Beadoin (#20) -- not a very good skater, but with extremely high ranks across the board in literally every other aspect I look for.

With Hockey Prospect, you can immediately tell that skating is not weighed so heavily -- as well as Beaudoin, all of Greentree, Pascarak and O'Reilly all have higher-than-consensus rankings.

For me, I have Greentree much lower because he has problems in three areas I regard highly -- skating, compete level and two-way play.

I have Nygard light years ahead of Greentree because he is off-the-charts great in those exact areas. However, there is little question that Greentree is far better than Nygard in terms of pucks skills and vision, and this is ostensibly something Hockey Prospect weighed with greater emphasis.

 

[My3Sons]

People have different criteria. My top 3 traits in my rankings are (in order):

1 Skating
2 Hockey IQ
3 Compete Level

It's probably safe to say most people don't follow my criteria. In my top 32, only one player with any of those three traits in question is ranked higher than consensus, which is Cole Beadoin (#20) -- not a very good skater, but with extremely high ranks across the board in literally every other aspect I look for.

With Hockey Prospect, you can immediately tell that skating is not weighed so heavily -- as well as Beaudoin, all of Greentree, Pascarak and O'Reilly all have higher-than-consensus rankings.

For me, I have Greentree much lower because he has problems in three areas I regard highly -- skating, compete level and two-way play.

I have Nygard light years ahead of Greentree because he is off-the-charts great in those exact areas. However, there is little question that Greentree is far better than Nygard in terms of pucks skills and vision, and this is ostensibly something Hockey Prospect weighed with greater emphasis.

I divined what you just said from reading the comments you and @Guadana have made about them previously. I just don't see how a respected service with multiple scouts can simply downplay IQ and compete. Maybe skating being emphasized less I get if a guy plays with pace despite a deficiency. @Guttersniped was kind enough to explain that about Hameenaho after she watched him at prospect camp before last season. And sure every year there are some skating wizards that just never quite pan out or at least disappoint. A guy like Roslovic or even Zacha. They share one thing in common, they don't like to be hit or get dirty in the corners and while they can play, it clearly holds them back. They aren't afraid and they aren't really bullied on the ice but they will just avoid the hit or sort of stop and have to get over their sense of annoyance that they were hit before continuing. IQ deficiencies are pretty obvious as well. Some guys can eventually figure it out with experience and reps but look at what happened with McLeod. He was finally starting to look like the player NJ expected when they drafted him back in 2016. Putting aside his extended leave of absence it took him about 7 years to start to turn the corner and he was still in that process when he left.

So, my boys played sports with a number of college prospects over the years in multiple sports. I knew the parents and in some cases had various kids who have played in college to my house along the way. I think maybe I've had one kid that made it to Major League Baseball over? One kid a practice squad level NFL player and a number of Div 1 players. The ones who didn't love it all ended up hanging it up after the first training camp when they couldn't just walk onto the field as the best player. One boy was so good at his sport he was spotted at 14 by a college coach. To this day this kid is one of the most talented I've ever seen at this sport but he only did it because his parents insisted he do something other than go to class. He hated practices he hated games and he really hated being counted on as the best player on the team. How a professional scout can't see that (it's basically compete level) is beyond me. The kids that just want to rely on talent can only go so far.

 

[StevenToddIves]

love the hard thought put into this!
charlie elick seems like a sweet fit with luke hughes for years to come (trade down for a goalie and center) too difficult?

dickinson with nemec has a nice ring also,, but he wont be there

I think Anton Silayev is my guy here, even though the 6'7" scares me. the FA market for big defensemen is getting expensive so a big guy on a rookie contract is value

I love Elick, but the Devils are extremely unlikely to go RD with a second straight 1st round pick (Nemec)... even if they did trade down. If any of LDs Buium, Dickinson or Silayev fall to #10, however, they all have to be considered serious possibilities for the Devils pick.

I divined what you just said from reading the comments you and @Guadana have made about them previously. I just don't see how a respected service with multiple scouts can simply downplay IQ and compete. Maybe skating being emphasized less I get if a guy plays with pace despite a deficiency. @Guttersniped was kind enough to explain that about Hameenaho after she watched him at prospect camp before last season. And sure every year there are some skating wizards that just never quite pan out or at least disappoint. A guy like Roslovic or even Zacha. They share one thing in common, they don't like to be hit or get dirty in the corners and while they can play, it clearly holds them back. They aren't afraid and they aren't really bullied on the ice but they will just avoid the hit or sort of stop and have to get over their sense of annoyance that they were hit before continuing. IQ deficiencies are pretty obvious as well. Some guys can eventually figure it out with experience and reps but look at what happened with McLeod. He was finally starting to look like the player NJ expected when they drafted him back in 2016. Putting aside his extended leave of absence it took him about 7 years to start to turn the corner and he was still in that process when he left.

So, my boys played sports with a number of college prospects over the years in multiple sports. I knew the parents and in some cases had various kids who have played in college to my house along the way. I think maybe I've had one kid that made it to Major League Baseball over? One kid a practice squad level NFL player and a number of Div 1 players. The ones who didn't love it all ended up hanging it up after the first training camp when they couldn't just walk onto the field as the best player. One boy was so good at his sport he was spotted at 14 by a college coach. To this day this kid is one of the most talented I've ever seen at this sport but he only did it because his parents insisted he do something other than go to class. He hated practices he hated games and he really hated being counted on as the best player on the team. How a professional scout can't see that (it's basically compete level) is beyond me. The kids that just want to rely on talent can only go so far.

Outstanding post, thanks for sharing all this.