Something is a bit off with Perfetti's profile in the edge stats. He had one burst above 22 mph. He had a few up to 22 mph and relatively modest number from 18-20 mph. His total distance didn't look too hot either. It's kinda sorta the same thing holding back Holtz in my view. I'm not sure if it's confidence or struggling with assignments? I don't doubt that lack of reps and experience makes it tougher for the young players who aren't top notch skaters or seasoned defenders to get to their spots and move without hesitation. Coaches for good teams generally stress defense and sure we've seen any number of these coaches hold young players to higher standards than veterans. I'm sure with experience he will put both ends fo the rink together and develop as an all around player.
I don't think a scoring winger needs to be a Selke Trophy-caliber defender in order to be effective. If you just take care of business in your own end and make an impact in transition and offensively, you're going to be a valuable player in the NHL.
But a lot of what I do here (ranking prospects) amounts to gauging what makes a player valuable in the NHL. To me, offensive danger and production are a big part of it, but are far from the whole picture.
The almost embarrassingly simplistic way to put this would be to say something pedantic like: Gustav Nyqvist scored 75 points this year and Brady Tkachuk scored 74. But if 32 GMs could pick a player between the two to have on their team for one 7-game series, which player would all 32 GMs undoubtedly for? What if we asked the same question between Shane Gostisbehere and his 56 points vs. Miro Heiskanen and his 54 points?
Obviously, scoring is crucially important in hockey. The team who scores more wins. But we also have to realize that in a 60-minute game with literally hundreds upon hundreds of events occurring, on the average only 6 or 7 of these events are scoring plays.
People can disagree and it will make for an interesting debate, but if Player A contributes to 10-15 more scoring plays a year than Player B, but Player B has a positive effect on literally thousands more on-ice events during the course of the season -- well, I'll take Player B every time.
This is to say I liked Cole Perfetti and I liked Alex Holtz in their draft years and I like Berkly Catton now. But the reason I had them all a bit lower than the consensus is because I think their on-ice impacts are almost directly linked to their scoring totals. With Holtz and Perfetti, I had them ranked lower than Jarvis simply because I felt Jarvis had a greater impact on the entirety of the game. With Catton, I have him ranked lower than Nygard and Helenius for the very same reason. It's not "not liking Holtz" or "not liking Catton" -- it's just that I really, really liked Jarvis then just as I really really like Nygard and Helenius now.