I was personally 60-80% sure he comes to Montreal about a year ago and I haven't changed it. Still 20-40% he don't come.
The sign/trade will be more trickier with other teams IMO. Habs know he will sign with us, other teams think he will but my gut tells me he would take $8.5M from the Habs but $9M+ from those other 5 teams.
He's hanging around with Caufield. I'm pretty sure he wants to come home and play with this core during his prime. As long as we are not going to low ball him on a contract (Under $8M like some others are saying), it's happening.
You know when you look at a contract signed July 1st and you shake your head and ask, "What were they thinking, this guy is getting more than X player and is clearly less good?"
That would be Dubois at $8M or more. The desirable locations usually don't have to pay that money, but sometimes a desperate team HOPES the player will be 10 points better than one should assume, and pays for that 'potential'. Too often, those contracts are bought out.
Montreal does not need to rape the player, nor should they, nor at any rate will he accept $5M or $6M like some nasty folk throw out, thinking he should grovel to play for us.
But I stick to my guns. He should not make more than Suzuki for the role we will have for him, which is a realistic role and not a stretch, not a dream that he will be the guy to carry a team on his back.
If PLD wants to go the highest bidder no matter what, that is his right, and I won't attack his character. I don't even mind if WE are the highest bidder, if the number is within my target. I won't blast Hughes for overpaying if he gets Dubois at, say, $7.8M and the rumours are that no one else offered that much.
I think we need about 3-4 forwards better than PLD to compete for a Cup, and we need money for top D-men too. A good GM has to manage the cap to make it all work, and I think Hughes is smart enough to do so - both to evaluate talent and to negotiate fair deals.