Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[Estimated_Prophet]

The thing with acquiring Dubois right now is not only just giving up assets it is the fact that Suzuki is a year younger and has outproduced PLD over a 3 year span 168-144 including .76 PPG vs .72 PPG. If Dubois wants more than Suzuki then I say that is a non starter. I only consider Dubois if he falls into line with Suzukii as the highest paid player and he does it on a long term deal.

If he wants to be a Hab then he can sign as a UFA and fall into place. Winnipeg are not looking to move him for a discounted return which is also a non starter. If Hughes can work out a deal where we give up the 31st pick along with two of Harris/Struble/Kidney/Mesar/Farrell/Ylonen/Norlinder and sign him to a long term deal worth less or equal to Suzuki's deal then I am in. An inclusion of better prospects/picks and/or a better contract than Suzuki is unacceptable imo.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The thing with acquiring Dubois right now is not only just giving up assets it is the fact that Suzuki is a year younger and has outproduced PLD over a 3 year span 168-144 including .76 PPG vs .72 PPG. If Dubois wants more than Suzuki then I say that is a non starter. I only consider Dubois if he falls into line with Suzukii as the highest paid player and he does it on a long term deal.

If he wants to be a Hab then he can sign as a UFA and fall into place. Winnipeg are not looking to move him for a discounted return which is also a non starter. If Hughes can work out a deal where we give up the 31st pick along with two of Harris/Struble/Kidney/Mesar/Farrell/Ylonen/Norlinder and sign him to a long term deal worth less or equal to Suzuki's deal then I am in. An inclusion of better prospects/picks and/or a better contract than Suzuki is unacceptable imo.

Comparing Suzuki's contract that was 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years to Dubois who would be 1 RFA year and 7 UFA years is not the same. Even if Dubois is less than one year older, their contract timing is not the same.

Dubois has earned the right to ask for similar contracts to Hintz, Horvat, and Larkin. Of course we prefer to have him at the lowest AAV we can get but he's not going to take less than $8M IMO.

I'd be OK with $8-$8.5M range and my strategy would be to lower the AAV with higher signing bonus structure (more than 50% of the contract). As long as the price to acquire is someone we can afford.

 

[Kosseca]

Jets pretty much have to trade him at some point. He's UFA in a year. They can bring him to arbitration and force a contract on him for one year then trade him at deadline, but I can't imagine PLD will do much to enhance his trade value. He didn't want to go to Winnipeg and his agent told them that. Jets decided to do it anyway hoping he'd change his mind.

I was reading the Kings board, and while there is theoretical interest in adding PLD, in reality they don't want to give up Vilardi, Clarke or Spence to do it. They also don't have a 2023 1st, and don't have much cap space to add an $8m contract nevermind a $9m one.

It's the same reasoning as ours for Dach: Vilardi is cost controlled and is on his way to 50 point seasons maybe more, yet will cost at least 50% less of what PLD will cost.

In a cap limited world, you need to find value. PLD is not a value contract after this year. Dach & Vilardi will continue to be.

Quick question on this: I was under the impression that you could not trade a player that was awarded a arbitration settlement for the entire next season. Did that change or did I misunderstood that point? In my mind, Jets have until the arbitration's decision come out to trade him, so that would be some time in August otherwise they get zero value out of him.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Comparing Suzuki's contract that was 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years to Dubois who would be 1 RFA year and 7 UFA years is not the same. Even if Dubois is less than one year older, their contract timing is not the same.

Dubois has earned the right to ask for similar contracts to Hintz, Horvat, and Larkin. Of course we prefer to have him at the lowest AAV we can get but he's not going to take less than $8M IMO.

I'd be OK with $8-$8.5M range and my strategy would be to lower the AAV with higher signing bonus structure (more than 50% of the contract). As long as the price to acquire is someone we can afford.

I do understand the RFA vs UFA dynamic but at the end of the day it is an insult to Suzuki who sacrificed a ton of UFA time as well. If Dubois wants market value with an increasing cap he can go elsewhere. If he wants to be a Hab he can sign for Suzuki money as he clearly has not earned anything more than that with his past production and glaring red flags. We should not forget that there were questions about his character even before he was drafted. Perhaps he will be different in Montreal if that is where his heart is but he still needs to prove that he is worth more than Suzuki and he definitely has not done that as of yet.

I am sure Hughes is interested but I would be surprised to see him stray very much if at all from the parameters that I laid out.

 

[Garry Valk]

Quick question on this: I was under the impression that you could not trade a player that was awarded a arbitration settlement for the entire next season. Did that change or did I misunderstood that point? In my mind, Jets have until the arbitration's decision come out to trade him, so that would be some time in August otherwise they get zero value out of him.

If he gets an offer sheet July 1st, and they match it, that's when the clock runs out.

 

[sampollock]

PLD seems like a pipe dream now, to read all the proposal's and assets to give up. Seems like habs will not do this

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

PLD seems like a pipe dream now, to read all the proposal's and assets to give up. Seems like habs will not do this

It's up to PLD, if he really wants to play in Montreal all he has to do is play out this season and sign a reasonable contract as a UFA. We will find out if the Habs are a true destination for PLD or simply preference/leverage. No need for Hughes to force the issue imo unless Winnipeg seriously reduces their asking price.

 

[Colezuki]

PLD seems like a pipe dream now, to read all the proposal's and assets to give up. Seems like habs will not do this

I think the people in here forgetting what Hughes was like last year, he literally last year got Dach without a soul knowing. The 2nd overall/4th overall could be simply a smoke screen to weaken chevy's position

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Easy on us old guys....lol

That's news to me.

How often do you use the verb "Rue"?

 

[blueberry]

Frankly I'm so tired of all this dubois talk. He's not worth all the trouble. We're just being taken for a ride and I think he's just jerking us around. Just use us to increase the offers and the money. Why give all these assets for a guy with dubious intentions. Stay the course and remember Tavares with toronto. Screw Dubois.

 

[angusyoung]

I know what's going on but it seems intricate and not simple to acquire PLD,and from a podcast with Gorton,he was saying about growing the team organically,these scenarios seems like a 180 from what he was saying,but he also said he would learn french when he was first hired,so......................

 

[SwiftyHab]

No they didn't outright say it. But it was the way they said it. It gave the impression something is up. They could have just been saying it to have fun. But Marcotte said something along the lines of "tomorrow, there's a chance we'll be talking Habs" and Lavoie sarcastically said "oh, there's something going on with the Habs?"

It's just the impression I got.

how did he say it? Did his voice go up an octave or two? Did you hear a slight tone of excitement in his voice? Did you hear the faint fluttering sound of an eyelid winking?

I’m intrigued

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Imagine if we get wood and dubois on the same day. A bilingual erection!

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Frankly I'm so tired of all this dubois talk. He's not worth all the trouble. We're just being taken for a ride and I think he's just jerking us around. Just use us to increase the offers and the money. Why give all these assets for a guy with dubious intentions. Stay the course and remember Tavares with toronto. Screw Dubois.

how are you gonna compare it with Tavares who didnt even wanna take a meeting with Bergevin?

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Things to do this summer re-read the entire Dubois thread. That should get me to training camp.

But just think how much more knowledgeable you'll be by the end of it...

 

[Sorinth]

This is tricky because it's both a trade and then a contract. If Dubois is after max deal (8x $9.5M), that may be the biggest hurdle and even the Habs may steer clear of that.

I'm starting to sense that Dubois/Brisson are after that max deal. They set themselves up to be a UFA for that 2024 off season where the cap is expected to grow. Now they are open to a 8 year extension prior to but make no mistake, they will force the 1 year arbitration if they don't get what they are looking for.

They set themselves up to be UFA that year not because the cap is expected to grow but because he wants out as soon as possible. If he was after max dollars why did he sign his 6m QO last year when he easily could've gotten more either through arbitration or just actual negotiation. He did it because it was supposed to make him easier to trade so he could get out faster.

 

[Runner77]

Frankly I'm so tired of all this dubois talk.

In a Dubois thread on top of that.

For shame!

 

[Habs Halifax]

They set themselves up to be UFA that year not because the cap is expected to grow but because he wants out as soon as possible. If he was after max dollars why did he sign his 6m QO last year when he easily could've gotten more either through arbitration or just actual negotiation. He did it because it was supposed to make him easier to trade so he could get out faster.

Not how I would word it. He wants both... out of Winnipeg and to cash in at the right circumstance. You're trying to divide the two

 

[SwiftyHab]

Athletic beat writer says that LA is leading in the PLD trade

 

[Habs Halifax]

I do understand the RFA vs UFA dynamic but at the end of the day it is an insult to Suzuki who sacrificed a ton of UFA time as well. If Dubois wants market value with an increasing cap he can go elsewhere. If he wants to be a Hab he can sign for Suzuki money as he clearly has not earned anything more than that with his past production and glaring red flags. We should not forget that there were questions about his character even before he was drafted. Perhaps he will be different in Montreal if that is where his heart is but he still needs to prove that he is worth more than Suzuki and he definitely has not done that as of yet.

I am sure Hughes is interested but I would be surprised to see him stray very much if at all from the parameters that I laid out.

It's not an insult to Suzuki. 4 RFA years is not the same as 7. These two are very close in value and Dubois's next contract will be just one RFA year. Circumstance is different.

If you think we are going to be able to trade for Dubois and get him to sign at Suzuki's cap hit or lower, you have much higher expectations than I have.

Sorry, but the RFA/UFA narrative is valid on this one. It's not an insult to Suzuki. Suzuki won't have a problem if Dubois comes at 8x $8.5M. I'm fairly confident on that and Suzuki would understand that RFA/UFA narrative as well.

How were we able to get Caufield under Suzuki? Was it because he is not as good or because on his 8 year deal, it's 5 RFA years?

 

[Tyson]

Dubois is a good player but no way he should command 9 mil per season (if true). Personally I hope they steer clear but I think KH will floor us with something during the draft similar to the Dach trade last season.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Athletic beat writer says that LA is leading in the PLD trade

That's not what he said. He said that Vilardi could be a focal point and that he thinks its more likely Dubois heads west than previously thought. The entire Dubois section was a (somewhat informed) thought exercise.

Honestly, I've a read a few of these "what we're hearing" articles in the Athletic and they're even less insightful than what insiders provide for free.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Athletic beat writer says that LA is leading in the PLD trade

Trading all 4 this off season will be a massive challenge. Imagine all the traffic in talking to several GM's over and over again and going back/forth on the 4 players?

Very curious to see how this plays out for Winnipeg. If they want to remain a playoff team, good luck with that. Teams interested in any of those 4 will offer futures as the main pieces.

Dubois is a good player but no way he should command 9 mil per season (if true). Personally I hope they steer clear but I think KH will floor us with something during the draft similar to the Dach trade last season.

It's just contract strategy. GM's start low and Agents start high. If Brisson/Dubois refuse to sign anything less than $9M, I think there is a high chance he might be stuck in Winnipeg this season and they move him at the 24 deadline.

Very difficult to get the trade you want and for the other team to like that AAV on the 8 year term. Dubois to me is in the $8M - $9M range. I have high confidence he falls in that range. However, if he actually does become UFA for the 24 off season where the cap is known to be $90M ish, he might get what he wants. The growing cap and knowing that the actual cap will be is not the same as today where we think it will grow. Once agents know for sure, watch out! GM's going to take fits.

 

[Habaneros]

Any other NHL team(not named Montreal) who wants to trade for him, knows he is 1 year and done .

His value got to be much lower , it's a 1 year rental .

 

[Habs Halifax]

That's not what he said. He said that Vilardi could be a focal point and that he thinks its more likely Dubois heads west than previously thought. The entire Dubois section was a (somewhat informed) thought exercise.

Honestly, I've a read a few of these "what we're hearing" articles in the Athletic and they're even less insightful than what insiders provide for free.

The entire hockey world hears of a team connected to Dubois that is not the Habs and all hell breaks loose. Seems reasonable the Kings would be interested and with Vilardi needing a new contract while Kopitar soon to be an older UFA, it makes sense they are interested.

Kings are going to make similar offers to us. My best guess is Vilardi, M Roy, and a future 1st maybe. Jets and non Habs fans really don't like the Habs and I hope they take it and choke while Dubois makes the Kings pay $9.5M for 8 years.

Dubois does want to come home and if another team interferes, well see how this plays out this time.