Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[angusyoung]

Dubois is a good player but no way he should command 9 mil per season (if true). Personally I hope they steer clear but I think KH will floor us with something during the draft similar to the Dach trade last season.

9 seems like a lot for him,but the way some contracts are given out,would not surprise me.

 

[sampollock]

I agree with many posters here
PLD is not a 8.5-9 mill player

that may be the deciding factor, his long term coin.

 

[Runner77]

It's up to PLD, if he really wants to play in Montreal all he has to do is play out this season and sign a reasonable contract as a UFA. We will find out if the Habs are a true destination for PLD or simply preference/leverage. No need for Hughes to force the issue imo unless Winnipeg seriously reduces their asking price.

I’m really not as concerned with the salary PLD will agree to as much as I am with the price paid to acquire him now. Hughes has leverage here, I’m hoping it translates.

However, it stands to reason that whatever assets are expended to land him, won’t be less than the going rate for him as a rental.

 

[EveryDay]

The entire hockey world hears of a team connected to Dubois that is not the Habs and all hell breaks loose. Seems reasonable the Kings would be interested and with Vilardi needing a new contract while Kopitar soon to be an older UFA, it makes sense they are interested.

Kings are going to make similar offers to us. My best guess is Vilardi, M Roy, and a future 1st maybe. Jets and non Habs fans really don't like the Habs and I hope they take it and choke while Dubois makes the Kings pay $9.5M for 8 years.

Dubois does want to come home and if another team interferes, well see how this plays out this time.

I don't think it works cap wise and Roy is a solid player in their top4, they would be worse with Dubois instead of Roy + Vilardi.

 

[sampollock]

I’m really not as concerned with the salary PLD will agree to as much as I am with the price paid to acquire him now. Hughes has leverage here, I’m hoping it translates.

However, it stands to reason that whatever assets are expended to land him, won’t be less than the going rate for him as a rental.

have to say I am worried on both.
to overpay and then over pay on a contract... double kick in the nads

 

[morhilane]

That's not what he said. He said that Vilardi could be a focal point and that he thinks its more likely Dubois heads west than previously thought. The entire Dubois section was a (somewhat informed) thought exercise.

Honestly, I've a read a few of these "what we're hearing" articles in the Athletic and they're even less insightful than what insiders provide for free.

Murat Ates is a Winnipeg beat writer. So more Jets trying to drive the trade return up. I somehow doubt LA wants to give Vilardi+ for Dubois, it doesn't work cap-wise too.

 

[Beendair Donedat]

Imagine if we get wood and dubois on the same day. A bilingual erection!

We’d be a lot bigger and harder to play against.

 

[sampollock]

still feel in the gut that PLD is a lost issue... he will sit out the start of the season in the peg, until MAYBE a deal can be worked out

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

It's not an insult to Suzuki. 4 RFA years is not the same as 7. These two are very close in value and Dubois's next contract will be just one RFA year. Circumstance is different.

If you think we are going to be able to trade for Dubois and get him to sign at Suzuki's cap hit or lower, you have much higher expectations than I have.

Sorry, but the RFA/UFA narrative is valid on this one. It's not an insult to Suzuki. Suzuki won't have a problem if Dubois comes at 8x $8.5M. I'm fairly confident on that and Suzuki would understand that RFA/UFA narrative as well.

How were we able to get Caufield under Suzuki? Was it because he is not as good or because on his 8 year deal, it's 5 RFA years?

Almost everyone was expecting Caufield to command more than Suzuki and this board in particular was unanimously pleased to see him come just under Nick's number. Suzuki is more valuable imo and effects the game at a higher level than Caufield even though Cole is more dynamic offensively. This was very similar imo to Marchand falling in behind Bergeron with Boston's structure. Marchand is certainly the more exciting of the two but Bergeron was their leader and had a greater overall effect on the ice.

I am not disagreeing that UFA vs RFA years are important but Suzuki has clearly been better than Dubois not just production wise but as a teammate and a leader. Despite Dubois being older he is not currently better than Suzuki. You could very well be right and Hughes may exceed the Suzuki cap by a little and truthfully I could live with that only if Suzuki is ok with it. The 9 million AAV talk that seems to come up with Dubois is too much imo and I do think that is insulting to Suzuki. Just because a player may be able to command a certain number as a UFA does not mean that it is a good or even a reasonable signing. Most high priced UFA signings are bad deals and if Dubois is coming to Montreal it should be about his actual worth and not what the highest bidder would foolishly pay.

If Dubois wants more than Nick he will be asking to be paid for something that he has yet to prove and I am a believer in players proving their worth before being paid. The payoff for Dubois falling in line would be term, not AAV especially if Hughes constructs his contract similar to Caufield's where it is front loaded with a huge signing bonus that is only subject to 6% escrow. If Dubois didn't have such a shady history all the way back to junior then maybe he is an easier sell to be paid more than Suzuki but that is not the case and hopefully Hughes sees this as a discount acquisition or walk away from it.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

still feel in the gut that PLD is a lost issue... he will sit out the start of the season in the peg, until MAYBE a deal can be worked out

That is a good scenario as it will diminish his value.

 

[sampollock]

That is a good scenario as it will diminish his value.

yup, it sure could

 

[Runner77]

have to say I am worried on both.
to overpay and then over pay on a contract... double kick in the nads

Well, if Hughes can’t even agree on what it takes to land him, that’ll take care of any imagined contract headaches.

 

[sampollock]

Well, if Hughes can’t even agree on what it takes to land him, that’ll take care of any imagined contract headaches.

true

pass on PLD if he wants more then Nick S

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I’m really not as concerned with the salary PLD will agree to as much as I am with the price paid to acquire him now. Hughes has leverage here, I’m hoping it translates.

However, it stands to reason that whatever assets are expended to land him, won’t be less than the going rate for him as a rental.

Hopefully nobody wants to give up too much with fears that he will leave for Montreal as a UFA. If this becomes the case Hughes will have Winnipeg over a barrel. I am ok with trading a combination prospects consisting of young LD's and small forwards that does not include Beck, Roy, Hutson, Mailloux, Barron or Engstrom along with Florida's 1st.

 

[Habs Halifax]

have to say I am worried on both.
to overpay and then over pay on a contract... double kick in the nads

I wouldn't worry. I don't see Gorton/Hughes getting aggressive in both trade value and contract.

Jets should worry if Brisson/Dubois are after 8x $9.5M though because that might make all teams steer clear.

 

[Runner77]

Almost everyone was expecting Caufield to command more than Suzuki and this board in particular was unanimously pleased to see him come just under Nick's number. Suzuki is more valuable imo and effects the game at a higher level than Caufield even though Cole is more dynamic offensively. This was very similar imo to Marchand falling in behind Bergeron with Boston's structure. Marchand is certainly the more exciting of the two but Bergeron was their leader and had a greater overall effect on the ice.

The biggest divergeance in the Bergeron/ Marchand argument is that Bergeron had a lifetime of high earnings and only forfeited part of his salary on one contract year on what was quite possibly his last NHL season. He also agreed to it as the team was in the crest of its competitive cycle, was in a cap crunch and would not have been able to add significant assets if Bergeron was going to get the expected value on his contract. Marchand, for the same reason, only ended up making a minor concession relative to his career earnings and contract length.

Suzuki, as far as I remember, did not make any particular salary concessions when he signed his deal. It was a market contract.

I’m with you on Caufield agreeing to the symbolic threshold of not getting more than Suzuki however, it wouldn’t have been that much of a stretch if he had gotten paid a little more relative to wherever the market had moved for comparables, 2 years after the Suzuki contract was signed.

The threshold argument worked this time but it won’t hold up obviously as we exit the flat cap timeline.

Hopefully nobody wants to give up too much with fears that he will leave for Montreal as a UFA. If this becomes the case Hughes will have Winnipeg over a barrel. I am ok with trading a combination prospects consisting of young LD's and small forwards that does not include Beck, Roy, Hutson, Mailloux, Barron or Engstrom along with Florida's 1st.

What would a rental cost these days? A late 1st, a pick plus a prospect? I’d have to see what kind of prices were being paid at the last deadline but from memory, some were more generous than that.

 

[Runner77]

true

pass on PLD if he wants more then Nick S

Cost to acquire PLD is the real priority. Not too concerned with reported or rumoured PLD contractual demands as we have a very sharp negotiator to handle them.

 

[yianik]

I’m really not as concerned with the salary PLD will agree to as much as I am with the price paid to acquire him now. Hughes has leverage here, I’m hoping it translates.

However, it stands to reason that whatever assets are expended to land him, won’t be less than the going rate for him as a rental.

100%. A good top 6 player gets a late 1st , decent young top 9 player and a B prospect. As PLD is a C, that price goes up so add on a 2nd. So that's TDL price. Add because you get him for a year and add more if he signs an extension.

And yes, I am more concerned with the assets going to the Jets than if I we pay PLD a million too much.

I will lose interest fast in PLD if we are in a bidding war. I wanted PLD at a discount created by his wanting to play exclusively for the Habs. At fair value we should bow out.

 

[Runner77]

100%. A good top 6 player gets a late 1st , decent young top 9 player and a B prospect. As PLD is a C, that price goes up so add on a 2nd. So that's TDL price. Add because you get him for a year and add more if he signs an extension.

And yes, I am more concerned with the assets going to the Jets than if I we pay PLD a million too much.

I will lose interest fast in PLD if we are in a bidding war. I wanted PLD at a discount created by his wanting to play exclusively for the Habs. At fair value we should bow out.

Should we really bow out at FMV? We’re talking a 25 year old who can play physical, brings size and decent production and who actually wants to play here. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player like that wanting to be a Hab unless they’re past their prime.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I’m really not as concerned with the salary PLD will agree to as much as I am with the price paid to acquire him now. Hughes has leverage here, I’m hoping it translates.

However, it stands to reason that whatever assets are expended to land him, won’t be less than the going rate for him as a rental.

Trouba trade and Horvat trade had signings come very shortly after. Not a real sign/trade but I'm pretty sure the Rangers and Islanders had an idea on what the extension would be before making the trade.

So yeah, I agree. It's going to be around what Trouba or Horvat returned. Not exactly the same but close.

 

[CaptainKirk]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player like that wanting to be a Hab unless they’re past their prime.

If that were true, he and his agent wouldn't have told Chevy they'd give him a list of 5-6 teams he'd be willing to play for. He should have stuck to his guns and said MTL or nothing. He created the bidding war. The plan was get him for cheap, otherwise he's no different than any other 25yo.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If Vilardi, Clarke, and Byfield are off the table from the Kings just like Slaf, Guhle, and Dach are with us, it might come down to this...

Wow, the excitement for the Jets eh?

Turcotte and Spence
vs
Beck and Harris

R Roy
vs
Dvorak

Panthers 2023 1st
vs
Kings 2024 1st

 

[CDN24]

Bratt's new contract at 7.875M makes an interesting comparable. same age- 1 year of RFA left rest are UFA years. Bratt has slighlty out produced PLD last 2 seasons, PLD is a centre. Don't see anyone paying assets to acquire and paying him much over 8M per

 

[Habs Halifax]

If that were true, he and his agent wouldn't have told Chevy they'd give him a list of 5-6 teams he'd be willing to play for. He should have stuck to his guns and said MTL or nothing. He created the bidding war. The plan was get him for cheap, otherwise he's no different than any other 25yo.

Nah, all they have to do is demand $9.5M for 8 years from other teams and that pretty much makes it just Montreal. We can speculate all day long but they may be just trying to be nice to the Jets.

There is no bidding war bud. It's an elusion

 

[Habs13]

That part doesn’t make sense to me. If he wants to come here, wouldn’t he come at a discount to up the odds? Why would he make it more difficult for himself to go to the team he wants to go to. Unless, he doesn’t really want to come hete

See Lecavalier, Briere etc.

Local players have long used the Habs as a bargaining chip saying they were Montreal-bound with no real.intention of signing here