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Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

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“Would you rather that the Habs trade for Dubois or instead wait and try to sign him when he becomes

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CaptainKirk said:
If that were true, he and his agent wouldn't have told Chevy they'd give him a list of 5-6 teams he'd be willing to play for. He should have stuck to his guns and said MTL or nothing. He created the bidding war. The plan was get him for cheap, otherwise he's no different than any other 25yo.
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Friedman and Marek reported that there was a 95% preference for Montreal.

He’s already sent a cold shower to other teams where he’d more than likely just be a rental if he ended up there.

When was Montreal so heavily ahead as a suitor for a player like Dubois in his prime?

There is no evidence of a bidding war for a rental so early before the trading deadline. This sounds like an agent tactic. There is little doubt what Dubois’ preference is and that gives Hughes leverage.
 
sampollock said:
still feel in the gut that PLD is a lost issue... he will sit out the start of the season in the peg, until MAYBE a deal can be worked out
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Jets are going to trade him as soon a s they can --the longer it gos the less he is worth
 
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Habs13 said:
See Lecavalier, Briere etc.

Local players have long used the Habs as a bargaining chip saying they were Montreal-bound with no real.intention of signing here
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Different times with different circumstances. Dubois coming home at a time when we are building up a youth core where he won't be on a island by himself is different than before.
 
Vachon23 said:
First of all, PLD is more a 65-70 pts and I do projet him being a 70 pts + player.

We have a way better idea of what Barron is then when we traded Sergachev and we didn't trade him for a center. Plus PLD >>>>>>>> Drouin

Or you can trade Barron and acquiring one after like Adam Boqvist (or draft Reinbacher)

Big PF that can produce like PLD and give you C/LW versatility is really valuable.

I do like Justin Barron and he was the prospect I was targeting when we where looking to trade Lehkonen so I was really happy with the trade but I don't think he's more then a 2nd pair guy. Is he valuable ? of course that's why Winnipeg would be interested but he can be replaceable and PLD is way more valuable
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In seven seasons PLD has passed 60 points twice. 60 and 63 points. He hasn't yet hit 65 let alone 70. He's 25 years old next week so he isn't a kid anymore. 63 points might well be his ceiling... for $9M a year, long term.
 
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Considering the situation they are in, if I was Winnipeg, I would be more than happy to get Dvorak, Anderson and a good prospect. Because no matter what you are not gonna get the right value for him. Dubois is a 60 points player. Anderson is a physical 30 points player. He is gonna be useful to your line-up and replace in some way the skill + physical aspect that Dubois had. Then there's a center coming in to sort of fill the center gap. And a top prospect/young player(Beck, Mailloux, Harris, Barron, etc...). It's pretty similar to the Pacioretty trade and we were over the moon about it. Max was also a 60 points player, Hell a more proven 60 points player.

Not to mention, it seems like it's gonna be a crazy summer for the Jets probably trading all their top guys. You don't have to get a king's ransom for Dubois. At the end of the day, you are gonna receive plenty of pieces from the other trades as well.
 
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Kimota said:
Considering the situation they are in, if I was Winnipeg, I would be more than happy to get Dvorak, Anderson and a good prospect. Because no matter what you are not gonna get the right value for him. Dubois is a 60 points player. Anderson is a physical 30 points player. He is gonna be useful to your line-up and replace in some way the skill + physical aspect that Dubois had. Then there's a center coming in to sort of fill the center gap. And a top prospect/young player(Beck, Mailloux, Harris, Barron, etc...). It's pretty similar to the Pacioretty trade and we were over the moon about it. Max was also a 60 points player, Hell a more proven 60 points player.

Not to mention, it seems like it's gonna be a crazy summer for the Jets probably trading all their top guys. You don't have to get a king's ransom for Dubois. At the end of the day, you are gonna receive plenty of pieces from the other trades as well.
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Massive over-payment
 
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Habs13 said:
In seven seasons PLD has passed 60 points twice. 60 and 63 points. He hasn't yet hit 65 let alone 70. He's 25 years old next week so he isn't a kid anymore. 63 points might well be his ceiling... for $9M a year, long term.
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He's not going to be in the 55-65 range for the entire 8 year term. He could have a few in the 50's, a few in the 60's and maybe some 70-80 range.

Players don't usually have consistent seasons like that. That also applies to Suzuki. Usually, players best seasons come in the age 25-30 range. Even McDavid has increased his point totals substantially at age 24/25.

$9M - $9.5M is overpayment. I agree there. But he's not worth less than $8M though.
 
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Runner77 said:
Friedman and Marek reported that there was a 95% preference for Montreal.

He’s already sent a cold shower to other teams where he’d more than likely just be a rental if he ended up there.

When was Montreal so heavily ahead as a suitor for a player like Dubois in his prime?

There is no evidence of a bidding war for a rental so early before the trading deadline. This sounds like an agent tactic. There is little doubt what Dubois’ preference is and that gives Hughes leverage.
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Wasn't it said he would be ready to do a trade and sign for 8 years?

If I was him, I would give no garantees that I would sign for the other teams where he is traded to make sure he is traded to us. 😁
 
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Habs13 said:
In seven seasons PLD has passed 60 points twice. 60 and 63 points. He hasn't yet hit 65 let alone 70. He's 25 years old next week so he isn't a kid anymore. 63 points might well be his ceiling... for $9M a year, long term.
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That is not true. Dubois has played 6 nhl seasons, and has scored 60 pts or more in 3 of them.

If you ignore his 19 year old rookie season, thats 3 seasons in the last 5 years that Dubois has scored 60 pts or more.

Also, one of those seasons was a shortened one (covid) where he scored 49 pts in 70 games, which is a pace of 57 pts in 82 games.

So basically 4 of the last 5 seasons.

There is also no reason to believe 63 pts is his ceiling considering he scored those 63 pts in 73 games, which is a 71 pts pace and also considering that he was dominant and reached another level (48 pts in 41 games) until he got injured and played injured, which is when his production dropped off.
 
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sheed36 said:
I was reading some of the PLD thread on the main trade rumor board and it felt like I wandered into a kindergarten class full of kids hyped up on chocolate that the teacher as lost complete control of. What a jesus mess that thread is ol man.
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I see that the Maim Forum hasn’t changed, b’y.
 
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Runner77 said:
Should we really bow out at FMV? We’re talking a 25 year old who can play physical, brings size and decent production and who actually wants to play here. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player like that wanting to be a Hab unless they’re past their prime.
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Lol. Plenty of guys have picked up their last NHL cheque from the Habs.

Okay, so an extended PLD. Best comparable may be Eichel.

So Eichel was going to have surgery. Eichel in a contract with term and $10M per. Eichel had hit 36 goals and 78 points and 82 points with Sabres, much better than PLD.

So negative because of the surgery favours PLD. PLD for more years in all likelihood So favours him. Eichel has produced more favours Eichel as a 1C v PLD a 2C.

Eichel and a 3rd got a top 10 protected 1st, a young player Krebs with upside ( drafted at 17th ) and a 20 goal ( at the time ) power forward in Tuch.

So for us a similar package might be our top 10 protected 2024, Owen Beck and Josh Anderson. I would say we need to add another good prospect or the 31st to make up for Krebs higher value.

So do we add or discount for PLD ? Eichel is the better player, but we will have PLD for 8 years and there is no discount for surgery.

I'm thinking FMV is PLD and a 2nd for our 2024 1st, top 10 protected, Beck and Anderson and Dvorak.

I will note I hate trading future 1sts and top 10 protected is only for that year, and I love Beck. But I think that's about FMV. I added Dvorak and the 2nd , but trade could happen without those pieces.

I would keep those assets and not trade for PLD until at least after the draft because I want them available in case we have a chance to move around.

Doesn't seem like a bad price, but we have 2 top 6Cs, and may be adding a potential top C prospect, should we not keep the assets and look for top D potential players ?
 
Habs Halifax said:
Not how I would word it. He wants both... out of Winnipeg and to cash in at the right circumstance. You're trying to divide the two
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If he's all about the money how do you explain him taking less money then he could have last year?
 
Runner77 said:
I see that the Maim Forum hasn’t changed, b’y.
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Yeah maybe I should've said the entire mainboard and not only the PLD thread is like a kindergarten class full of kids hyped up on chocolate that the teacher as lost complete control of instead.

I rarely open any Habs threads there anymore since any Habs related thread just turns into complete shitshows even worse than regular threads there. It's pretty much the same for Leafs related threads there as well.
 
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sheed36 said:
I was reading some of the PLD thread on the main trade rumor board and it felt like I wandered into a kindergarten class full of kids hyped up on chocolate that the teacher as lost complete control of. What a jesus mess that thread is ol man.
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Really gem, isn't it? Ever since the whole "list of teams" comment got out, Jet fans suddenly went from Florida's 1st to thinking they'll get the likes of Byfield or both our firsts and a prospect. I get they wanna hold onto anything to make it look better but come on.

Right now the "reasonable" offer is:

Barron
Kidney
Dvorak
1st (Florida)

:biglaugh:

If I'm the Jets, I take the best offer and let another team deal with PLD's nonsense. He's probably worth more as a one year rental who walks to us next season than anything we'll reasonably give up.
 
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Bourne Endeavor said:
Really gem, isn't it? Ever since the whole "list of teams" comment got out, Jet fans suddenly went from Florida's 1st to thinking they'll get the likes of Byfield or both our firsts and a prospect. I get they wanna hold onto anything to make it look better but come on.

Right now the "reasonable" offer is:

Barron
Kidney
Dvorak
1st (Florida)

:biglaugh:

If I'm the Jets, I take the best offer and let another team deal with PLD's nonsense. He's probably worth more as a one year rental who walks to us next season than anything we'll reasonably give up.
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Not sending both Barron and a late first round pick.
 
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