The Real JT
The crowd called out for more
Dufour with goal #42 and 3 assists tonight in a 5-0 win.
Isles Prospect Talk 2020-21 Pt. III
- Thread starter PK Cronin
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Dufour with goal #42 and 3 assists tonight in a 5-0 win.
I love the upgrade editing this table was the easiest it's ever been!
+ = on IR or just hurt
+ = on IR or just hurt
| PLAYER | POS | ACQUIRED | HFB RANK | TEAM | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM | +/- |
| Noah Dobson | D | 2018 round 1 #12 | 1 | New York Islanders | 54 | 10 | 22 | 32 | 10 | 4 |
| Oliver Wahlstrom | RW/LW | 2018 round 1 #11 | 2 | New York Islanders | 50 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 41 | 0 |
| Samuel Bolduc | D | 2019 round 2 #57 | 3 | Bridgeport Islanders | 44 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -2 |
| Aatu Raty | C | 2021 round 2 #52 | 4 | Oulun Karpat | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| * Jukurit | 37 | 12 | 22 | 34 | 30 | 25 | ||||
| Finland U20 (all) | 11 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Robin Salo | D | 2017 round 2 #46 | 5 | * Bridgeport Islanders | 28 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 2 | -5 |
| New York Islanders | 18 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | ||||
| Bode Wilde | D | 2018 round 2 #41 | 6 | Vasterviks IK | 38 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 8 | -3 |
| Simon Holmstrom | RW/LW | 2019 round 1 #23 | 7 | Bridgeport Islanders | 53 | 7 | 19 | 26 | 6 | -6 |
| Kieffer Bellows | LW | 2016 round 1 #19 | 8 | New York Islanders | 31 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 2 |
| William Dufour | RW | 2020 round 5 #152 | 9 | Saint John Sea Dogs | 45 | 42 | 40 | 82 | 28 | 44 |
| Ruslan Iskhakov | C/RW | 2018 round 2 #43 | 10 | Adler Mannheim | 16 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 9 |
| Sebastian Aho | D | 2017 round 5 #139 | 11 | New York Islanders | 24 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 8 | -8 |
| Alex Jefferies | LW | 2019 round 4 #121 | 13 | Merrimack College | 33 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 10 | -7 |
| Reece Newkirk | C | 2019 round 5 #147 | 13 | Bridgeport Islanders | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -3 |
| * Worcester Railers | 24 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 12 | 6 | ||||
| Otto Koivula | C/LW | 2016 round 4 #120 | 14 | Bridgeport Islanders | 45 | 10 | 26 | 36 | 32 | -2 |
| * New York Islanders | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Grant Hutton | D | FA | 15 | * Bridgeport Islanders | 41 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 12 | -4 |
| New York Islanders | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Alexander Ljungkrantz | LW | 2020 round 3 #90 | 19 | Brynas IF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
| Brynas IF J20 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 | -4 | ||||
| * HC Vita Hasten | 33 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 2 | -10 | ||||
| Sweden U20 (all) | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | ||||
| Matias Rajaniemi | D | 2020 round 6 #183 | 20 | * Lehden Pelicans | 56 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 5 |
| Finland U20 (all) | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | ||||
| Collin Adams | LW/C | 2016 round 6 #170 | HM1 | Worcester Railers | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | -4 |
| * Bridgeport Islanders | 34 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | -5 | ||||
| Cameron Berg | C | 2021 round 4 #125 | HM2 | Univ. of Nebraska Omaha | 37 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 14 | 4 |
| Blade Jenkins | LW/C | 2018 round 5 #134 | HM3 | Bridgeport Islanders | 43 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 9 | -2 |
| Arnaud Durandeau | LW | 2017 round 6 #165 | HM4 | Bridgeport Islanders | 55 | 12 | 18 | 30 | 28 | 1 |
| Aleksi Malinen | D | 2021 round 6 #189 | HM5 | JYP | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
| * JYP U20 | 32 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 0 | ||||
| KeuPa HT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ||||
| Finland U20 (all) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | ||||
| Eetu Liukas | LW | 2021 round 5 #157 | * TPS | 44 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 24 | -3 | |
| TPS U20 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 14 | 5 | ||||
| Finland U20 (all) | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | -1 | ||||
| (?) Ben Mirageas | D | 2017 round 3 #77 | Providence College | 16 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 1 | |
| Christian Krygier | D | 2018 round 7 #196 | Michigan State Univ. | 36 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 79 | -12 | |
| Jacob Pivonka | C | 2018 round 4 #103 | Univ. of Notre Dame | 23 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| Tomas Machu | D | 2021 round 7 #221 | HC Vitkovice | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| HC Vitkovice U20 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 2 | ||||
| Draci Sumperk | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dukla Jihlava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||||
| * Youngstown Phantoms | 22 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | ||||
| Czechia U20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Logan Cockerill | LW | 2017 round 7 #201 | Boston Univ. | 30 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 8 | -4 | |
| GOALIES | GP | GAA | SV% | SO | W-L-T | |||||
| Tristan Lennox | G | 2021 round 3 #93 | 17 | Saginaw Spirit | 28 | 3.20 | .888 | 0 | 7-20-0 | |
| Jakub Skarek | G | 2018 round 3 #72 | 17 | Bridgeport Islanders | 31 | 2.98 | .904 | 1 | 14-11-5 | |
| Henrik Tikkanen | G | 2020 round 7 #214 | Kalpa | 2 | 4.95 | .765 | 0 | 0-2-0 | ||
| * MoDo Hockey | 18 | 2.60 | .901 | 1 | 12-4-0 | |||||
| Vaxjo Lakers HC | 1 | 1.00 | .952 | 0 | 1-0-0 |
doublechili
For all intensive purposes, your nuts
- Apr 11, 2006
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I can't believe Lou drafted Wahlstrom ahead of Dobson. What a terrible pick....
doublechili
For all intensive purposes, your nuts
- Apr 11, 2006
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He was a 3rd round pick, #90 overall. They've picked total duds in the 1st and 2nd rounds.
periferal
Registered User
- Jul 5, 2007
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I get that. I'm just saying that most of those 2nd round picks it was like, "Well I would have preferred ______, but let's see what he can do."
With Ljungkrantz it was like, "WTF?! He was ranked at the bottom of the draft. Waste of a pick."
Picking players that turn out to be duds, and picking a player who's declared a dud the moment he's picked are two different things.
doublechili
For all intensive purposes, your nuts
- Apr 11, 2006
- 19,094
- 15,607
I'm not saying Ljungkrantz is going to amount to anything, but I assume the reason the Isles drafted him is that when it was their turn to pick he was the top available player on their list. Should they have taken a player that they liked less on the assumption/hope that their top guy would last another 31 picks? Maybe he would have been there in the next round, but all it takes is one team to also like a guy and take him and you just outsmarted yourself.
Anyway, we're less than 2 years out from that draft, and players selected after Ljungkrantz have played a total of 11 NHL games with zero points (no player drafted after the 1st round has a point yet). So we can say Prospect X is a better prospect than Ljungkrantz, but we don't truly know who will be NHL players and who won't be. Well, other than you knowing Ljungkrantz won't be.
doublechili
For all intensive purposes, your nuts
- Apr 11, 2006
- 19,094
- 15,607
BTW, I remember when the Isles selected Hamonic in the 2nd round but no one was talking about him because they were so excited that we got Corey Trevino!!
periferal
Registered User
- Jul 5, 2007
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I'm not saying Ljungkrantz is going to amount to anything, but I assume the reason the Isles drafted him is that when it was their turn to pick he was the top available player on their list. Should they have taken a player that they liked less on the assumption/hope that their top guy would last another 31 picks? Maybe he would have been there in the next round, but all it takes is one team to also like a guy and take him and you just outsmarted yourself.
Anyway, we're less than 2 years out from that draft, and players selected after Ljungkrantz have played a total of 11 NHL games with zero points (no player drafted after the 1st round has a point yet). So we can say Prospect X is a better prospect than Ljungkrantz, but we don't truly know who will be NHL players and who won't be. Well, other than you knowing Ljungkrantz won't be.
Again no one is saying that...
- Ljungkrantz wasn't the top of the Isles list when their pick came up.
- That he won't become something in a few years.
- That anyone taken after him will become something ever.
All I'm saying is that for as long as I can remember no pick the Isles made FELT as DOA as Ljungkrantz did when they made it.
Remember the FEELING when the Isles took Raty in the 2nd last year? Had a decidedly different FEELING when they made it and yet...Raty could turn still turn out to be a wasted pick.
BTW, I remember when the Isles selected Hamonic in the 2nd round but no one was talking about him because they were so excited that we got Corey Trevino!!
Amazing as I was literally thinking about the Trevino pick in my first reply.
doublechili
For all intensive purposes, your nuts
- Apr 11, 2006
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Top Corner
Registered User
Every time I look at the prospects table I say “What does it take and how much do the scouts make” because
When i look at the prospects stat lines for those that are not in the NHL , it’s sad to see. It almost looks like a great
job with no experience necessary As I’m sure I could reel of picks that would be equally as good.
When i look at the prospects stat lines for those that are not in the NHL , it’s sad to see. It almost looks like a great
job with no experience necessary As I’m sure I could reel of picks that would be equally as good.
The Real JT
The crowd called out for more
I can’t top Rumplstiltskin as the most brain dead recent pick but Ishakov and Cammarata were also reaches and bad from the gitgo (yes that’s a word).
Here’s an update on Cammarata.
CupHolders
Really Fries My Bananas!
- Aug 8, 2006
- 7,571
- 5,909
What’s wrong with Cammarata at 76 overall? It’s not as if there was really much left that was comparably better than an undersized USHL offensive scorer!
Then the very next pick at 77, undersized USHL offensive scorer, Jake Guentzal goes to the Pens.
While not the first time the Isles just missed out on a player chosen just after their pick… see Shea Weber.
It was the first time I recall the Isles missing out on a near identical kind of player on the very next pick. The Isles had the right league, right position, right role and wrong player.
CupHolders
Really Fries My Bananas!
- Aug 8, 2006
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Why U gotta drag this thread down with reminder of Michael Dal Colle?
Even weirder is that many publications didn't even have him ranked among the top 225 players available for the draft.
Even weirder weirder than that is that Chromiak, who was widely understood as a top 45 talent, was still on the board while (IMHO) each of US kids Farrell and Berard had "Lamoriello pick" written all over them, and were both available at 90. All three are looking like fantastic picks right now.
Then there were guys like Zayne Wisdom and Tyler Tullio available who both looked like really nice grabs at that spot and whose prospect stock has only grown since then.
In other words, the Ljungkrantz pick is - even more so than Holmstrom - about the biggest "We're the NYI scouting staff and we know it all better than everyone else" pick ever, all things considered.
Ironically, when the pick was made, I actually thought they grabbed a Swede named Daniel Ljungman, who was ranked way at the end of the draft by most publications. That kid is about the same size and went in the 5th round. He made the WJC team this winter and has spent most of the season playing in the SHL. Just bye the bye...
***
I hope we one day find out what motivated this staff to take Ljungkrantz whatsoever, much less as their first pick in a draft where they had few picks to work with and this guy was for intents and purposes on nobodies list? I mean, I just want to know what inside thought/motivation/connection led to THAT particular pick. There was nothing indicating he was particularly pick-worthy and now he's done nothing to show why the team actually took him.
Maybe he surprises in the coming years...
SI90
Registered User
Cammarata wasn’t nearly as bad as Rumpelstiltskin. Cammarata outscored Mackinnon and was known in the hockey community. His biggest problem was for his size you have to be a really good skater and he was terrible.
The Rumpelstiltskin pick was just baffling. Guy had no track record over there. Was like our euro scouts wanted to outsmart everyone and find a diamond in the rough.
I remember that was our first pick that draft and a few guys I liked that were picked after him were Biondi , Coe, and Stranges. Maybe these guys don’t ever amount to anything but I thought they were way better options. I wasn’t too familiar with alex Jeffries but stiffer researching him I could see why he was picked and on the radar of teams.
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The Winter Soldier
Registered User
- Apr 4, 2011
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This is one area that surprises me. Lou is a USA hockey guy, but the picks are trending Euro with Holmstrom and Ljungkrantz. Raty was a faller and we are happy we took him. I personally think the USA talent in drafts is where to go now. You would think with Lou's connections this is where the Isles should be looking at. In what looks like a top 10ish pick this year. We are not bad enough to pick top 3 and not good enough to pick 15th.
periferal
Registered User
- Jul 5, 2007
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I remember when Lou came aboard in 2018 he said he was "going to let the scouts run the draft." I wonder at his age how much scouting he's doing (especially for later picks which is usually just scouts anyway), so it's possible that the Islanders scouting staff is essentially running all the drafts.
...And that certainly stands to reason given the "we know it all" quote you gave above. I actually don't think the Isles scouting department is collectively smart enough to even have that kind of attitude. I just think they get it wrong a bunch - Even when it is sometimes handed to them on a silver platter. Feels like they have a few scouts who know what they're doing so, when the pound the table, they find the guys who wind up having NHL careers.
To me...Scouting is literally the most important aspect of team building. Without good drafts you have zero hope to compete for a Cup. Not sure how much Lou has revamped the scouting department since he's arrived, but based on that Ljungkrantz pick it certainly doesn't feel like much has changed and that is disappointing.
PK Cronin
Bailey Fan Club Prez
- Feb 11, 2013
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It's a hard thing to evaluate from a fan perspective because we don't know the details about why certain picks are made. You can have the best GM in the world with a lousy scouting department and you're in trouble. Same if it were reversed. Sometimes GMs meddle, sometimes owners meddle, sometimes current circumstances outweigh the drafting (drafting for need rather than BPA). The biggest hurdle to evaluating drafting departments is that it takes a long time to see if they were right or wrong, and there are lots of variable after the pick that influence that as well. Injuries, bad development, etc. can all impact how a player turns out. Even something as simple as a shift in who the head scout is or if they're targeting different qualities over time can change things drastically.
periferal
Registered User
- Jul 5, 2007
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I agree with most all you wrote, but I'm a bottom line guy which is to say there are teams that get it right a lot more than others. When you look at how Yzerman drafted with the Lightning (and so far with the Wings), there's a lot of improvement needed with the Isles scouting department. Maybe a few core scouts need to go. Maybe they need more scouts. Maybe just Klatt or Morrow aren't doing a good job.
Whatever it is, it's disappointing that in Lou's 3rd draft the room wasn't improved enough to just waste their 1st pick even if it was in the 3rd round (since as Chap mentioned there were certainly better/more sensible picks on the board at that time).
PK Cronin
Bailey Fan Club Prez
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I don't know anything about the picks usually, so I have no idea, but I also don't like rushing judgement on drafts. Two years removed from the draft is too short to judge some picks (there are some that are obvious flops).
CupHolders
Really Fries My Bananas!
- Aug 8, 2006
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Just for clarification, because this has erroneously come up before… Morrow is a Pro Scout. He does not scout for the amateur draft.
I remember there was a poster on here with a vendetta of getting Morrow fired because of their entry draft results.
BelovedIsles
Registered User
- Oct 22, 2005
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I'd say Lou has meant it basically 100%. Everything we can take from the drafts to date seems to indicate that Lou has let them run the drafting show entirely.
Since he's been GM, and of course, he had barely been around when the 2018 draft took place, we've had 4 picks "fall to us" so to speak, namely Wahlstrom, Dobson, Wilde, and Raty. Kind of no-brainers at those junctures of the draft. And as I mentioned in the post you quoted, it could have actually been more. Heck, I love the "grab what drops to us" approach, especially when you're regularly entering a draft without any top 45 picks.
But Holmstrom and Ljungkrantz have been picks with definite internal preferences at work. They're the kind of picks you see when somebody on the staff holds the kind of decision making weight to overrule going with what the consensus (even an internal consensus) would have seen as the much more obvious choice. Heck, we could even say that about Bolduc in the 2nd round in 2019 as well. He's turned out to look like a real good prospect, but some publications didn't even have him listed in the top 225.
Furthermore, the head scout of amateur scouting is VP Kautonen, so seeing the two Swedes be taken in addition to five(!) Finns out of the last 16 picks (and the 5 Finns have actually been among the last 11 picks) is showing a clear lean towards the Nordic countries. We shouldn't forget that Skarek was drafted out of Finland (he had been playing junior there) and then Iskhakov left college early to play pro in, well, Finland.
What's going down on this front isn't too hard to imagine.
Like you allude to, poor drafts are no recipe for a Stanley Cup. It's not just about getting future players. It's every bit as much about racking up on assets that can be moved for other pieces. That aspect alone made the use of picks on Song and Rosen over the years to be absolute travesties, but I'll digress as we all know what kind of a shitshow was at work in those days.
I do like knowing that the staff goes with what it wants, whatever we may think is behind that decision making. But the scouting industry isn't what it was 20-30 years ago. Thanks to all the magazines and independent scouting services as well as YouTube and Twitter and highlights from every corner of the hockey map, there just aren't many players slipping through the nooks and crannies out there. Alone the growth and immense role eliteprospects and InStat have come to play has totally changed the scouting landscape, even more so with three Corona-affected scouting seasons.
So, if a kid who is outside of the top 200 in every single publication on the market gets taken at 90, there's NOTHING your staff knows about him that all the others don't. Your staff can have a preference or a belief or a gut feeling or perhaps connections somewhere that influence a decision, but you haven't seen anything that all the others haven't.
That's the reality of the current prospect scene.
And that is something our staff just can't hide from when it comes to a player like Ljungkrantz.
Personally, I'm totally with you here. I think we've skipped out on some players that are from the US and kind come out of that i.e. Parise mould.
I can only think that, as Periferal mentioned above, Lou has left the decisions entirely to the scouting staff, which obviously leans more in another direction.
But between the USNTDP and the USHL, plus several of the most influential high school programs out there, you can concentrate almost solely on the top level of kids being produced in the USA and do real well for yourself in a draft. I'd even be so bold as to say that you really don't need to draft outside of North America and Scandinavia. You have an average of 7 picks. The 4 major hockey nations included in those territories provide all you need in order to get 7 very promising players.
Since our team is currently at a crossroads right now, not looking like a real buyer or seller, it's really hard to think about what the Isles will do in this summer's draft. Just going to have to wait a bit until we know where the team is scheduled to draft.
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