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TSN: How the coronavirus could impact the NHL’s bottom line UPD: NHL Season suspended MOD Warning post139

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Per the Cuomo press conference today, New York had its highest death toll to date yesterday at 731. This was still below what the University of Washington model had forecasted (784).

The big news is the big drop in new ICU admissions and intubations.

ICU: 395, 250, 128 and 89 yesterday.

Intubations: 351, 316, 132 and 69 yesterday.

Cuomo explained that deaths are a lagging indicator and reflect what was happening weeks ago in terms of infections. The deceased were admitted to hospitals and ended up in the ICU on ventilators. The longer on a ventilator, the less likely they are to survive.

Cuomo asked Trump to make the Comfort ship a COVID-19 ship, instead of treating non-COVID patients and Trump agreed. It will go from 1,000 beds to 500 beds because they need more room per patient to handle COVID patients.

By the way, Trump was right when he said New York wouldn't need all the ventilators Cuomo was claiming just recently. I realize saying "Trump was right" about anything will trigger some people here. Lots of reasons to criticize Trump (lots and lots), but in terms of dispersement of the national stockpile, his administration is doing a good job. There is no place in the country currently where they don't have enough ventilators. Many states have not hit their peak yet, so that might change.

Could the sharp decline in ICU admissions have anything to do with New York's trials with the hydroxychloriquine drug cocktail? Yesterday, Cuomo called the preliminary results "promising" and said he would ask Trump to raise the federal supply of hydroxychloroquine to New York pharmacies.
 
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I think there is a certain level of misunderstanding regarding why hydroxychloroquine may be effective in most patients, especially if taken early on in the onset of the infection. Patients are succumbing to COVID-19 due to the overreaction of their own immune system to the virus.

Treating Coronavirus With Plaquenil and Aralen

Why use malaria drugs to treat coronavirus?

These drugs may stop the immune system from going overboard in its attack on the virus. Some patients with severe COVID-19 have experienced organ failure and death, apparently because their immune system kept attacking long after the virus was defeated. Hydroxychloroquine helps calm the immune response. That’s why it works so well for autoimmune conditions like lupus.

But it is not yet clear how well hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine work in patients with COVID-19. The drugs appear to protect laboratory-grown cells from coronavirus, but scientists are only beginning to test the drugs for this condition in human clinical trials.

Doctors are not sure what dose is best for patients with COVID-19. For now, the drugs are being prescribed at a higher dose and for a shorter period of time for COVID-19 than for other conditions.
 
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I have seen various conflicting reports on hydroxychloriquine. I've heard it helps facilitate zinc moving into cells, which then slows the replication rate of the virus. I've read it only works in those who are severely ill. I've read it only works with those who are mildly ill. I've read it should be used as a prophylactic for healthcare workers who aren't even ill. I've read it doesn't work at all.

If I had to put on my guessing hat, my guess is it has been downplayed to avoid a run on it. Much the same way they lied -- yes, lied -- about masks not being effective because they didn't want the public snatching them up when healthcare workers were in such short supply.
 
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HeadInjury said:
I have seen various conflicting reports on hydroxychloriquine. I've heard it helps facilitate zinc moving into cells, which then slows the replication rate of the virus. I've read it only works in those who are severely ill. I've read it only works with those who are mildly ill. I've read it should be used as a prophylactic for healthcare workers who aren't even ill. I've read it doesn't work at all.

If I had to put on my guessing hat, my guess is it has been downplayed to avoid a run on it. Much the same way they lied -- yes, lied -- about masks not being effective because they didn't want the public snatching them up when healthcare workers were in such short supply.
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I too have read the information regarding hydrocholoroquine and zinc. It does seem that hydrochloroquine increases a cell's ability to "uptake" zinc. Here is an article from 2014 (so it is not COVID-19 hype) which discusses this.

Chloroquine Is a Zinc Ionophore

The present study investigated the interaction of zinc ions with chloroquine in a human ovarian cancer cell line (A2780). Chloroquine enhanced zinc uptake by A2780 cells in a concentration-dependent manner, as assayed using a fluorescent zinc probe. This enhancement was attenuated by TPEN, a high affinity metal-binding compound, indicating the specificity of the zinc uptake.

Zinc is an important element for our immune system.
 
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Zinc has been long known to inhibit RNA viruses, SARS for one. It inhibits the RNA Poly from binding onto it's site to create a replication fork by replacing an ion. It was used with HIV as well by inhibiting reverse transcriptase by a similar mechanism. It will help with any COV virus in that family, this infection should be no different. A good amount of colds are CV's, which is where the cold eze craze came from.

The main issue with Cholorquine is there is an assload of things you can't take with it - many antibiotics, antifungals, anti-arrythmatics and so on. It's not super dangerous, but it's not safe either, especially for people who have underlying conditions.
 
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Denmark is reopening primary schools a week from today.

The slope of their curve is less steep, but it they have not bent it down to where it is a negative slope. It will be interesting to see how this goes for them, and we should pay attention to their results when it comes to reopening our schools. I have no problem with kids going to school in the summer, as I suspect distance learning has not been much of a success overall.

Denmark Coronavirus: 5,071 Cases and 203 Deaths - Worldometer
 
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The University of Washington COVID-19 model has been reduced again down to about 60,000 deaths nationwide.

CA down slightly to about 1,600 deaths.

New York down to 13,300.

Looking around, it seems like projections for some southern states such as Texas, Alabama and Florida have gone down significantly. Just a guess, but I'm thinking that the model assumed that late stay home orders (or none at all) would have a bigger impact. Yesterday, Dr. Birx talked about how it turns out that even in some states where no order has been issued, good social distancing was still taking place. She mentioned Iowa as an example of that.

New York deaths hit a new high yesterday of 779. But the reduced admissions data from yesterday continued.

Cuomo was asked if he should have closed things earlier (the answer is yes , with the benefit of hindsight). He gave a politician's response that some people were saying at the time that he did it too early. That of course if true, but doesn't answer the question. Some New York city politicians really have a lot to be criticized for. Cuomo less so.

Boris Johnson is supposedly doing better. Deaths in the UK continue to spike, and their death rate is now over 11%.
 
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Taking politics out of the equation simply observing the current administration as the people in charge who are dealing with this apparent crisis currently I think that they are and have been doing a truly great job. Regardless of what the media has said (none of which should be believed imo) I think that it appears that we are dealing with this crisis in a very very effective manner.

Time will tell.

That said my neighbor lives part time in the absolute wilderness (I live in the boonies but he lives in an area that you have to leave your vehicle 14 miles away from any roads dirt or otherwise) and he said that one of the BLM guys who spends most of his time out there came down with the virus (flu developed into worsening symptoms then Chinese Virus later). I mean I go days and sometimes weeks without having to see anyone and live on 30ish acres and have zero concerns of getting the bug sp that was concerning to me. Also, if anyone finds the need to make a run up to NoId let me know. Happy to welcome Kings fans and might be able to help with lodging in one way or another. Just saying.
 
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ricardfromage said:
That said my neighbor lives part time in the absolute wilderness (I live in the boonies but he lives in an area that you have to leave your vehicle 14 miles away from any roads dirt or otherwise) and he said that one of the BLM guys who spends most of his time out there came down with the virus (flu developed into worsening symptoms then Chinese Virus later). I mean I go days and sometimes weeks without having to see anyone and live on 30ish acres and have zero concerns of getting the bug sp that was concerning to me. Also, if anyone finds the need to make a run up to NoId let me know. Happy to welcome Kings fans and might be able to help with lodging in one way or another. Just saying.
Click to expand...

So he has to hike 14 miles to his cabin??

Montana?
 
Rumpelstiltskin said:
Californians may have developed some herd immunity to coronavirus last year, Stanford team theorizes

I suffer from chronic bronchitis, and last Fall, I had by far the worst respiratory infection of my life (also got a nasty fever, which I almost never get, ironically). I know: one anecdote /=/ evidence, but interesting timing...

right there with you had the worst case of flu we ever had , my wife and i, chalked it up to being older at the time but had no energy, burning chest,no appetite (lost 9 lbs)headaches , dont know about fever havent had a working thermometer since all the kids and grand kids moved out lol, lasted about 2 weeks and it also spread around our shop ,about 130 ish people work in the building, so alot of us are thinking it ran through the shop before we even new about it officially would surelike to take the antibodies test to see, also we get the flu shot every sept/oct. due to our age and some underlying conditions and this is he first year that we had anything like this flu afterwords, asked the doctor about in january and he said that it was a differtent strain then they had planned for and i would like to know what he thinks now





OTOH, the sheer amount of likely-already-infected-travelers from Europe (Northern Italy) in early-2020 could well be the more probable factor for the disparity.
Click to expand...
 
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Rumpelstiltskin said:
Californians may have developed some herd immunity to coronavirus last year, Stanford team theorizes

I suffer from chronic bronchitis, and last Fall, I had by far the worst respiratory infection of my life (also got a nasty fever, which I almost never get, ironically). I know: one anecdote /=/ evidence, but interesting timing...

right there with you had the worst case of flu we ever had , my wife and i, chalked it up to being older at the time but had no energy, burning chest,no appetite (lost 9 lbs)headaches , dont know about fever havent had a working thermometer since all the kids and grand kids moved out lol, lasted about 2 weeks and it also spread around our shop ,about 130 ish people work in the building, so alot of us are thinking it ran through the shop before we even new about it officially would surelike to take the antibodies test to see, also we get the flu shot every sept/oct. due to our age and some underlying conditions and this is he first year that we had anything like this flu afterwords, asked the doctor about in january and he said that it was a differtent strain then they had planned for and i would like to know what he thinks now





OTOH, the sheer amount of likely-already-infected-travelers from Europe (Northern Italy) in early-2020 could well be the more probable factor for the disparity.
Click to expand...
 
In a German town dealing with the coronavirus, 1,000 residents were randomly tested and 15% were found to have COVID-19 antibodies. Not enough to gain herd immunity but it places the actual death rate there at 0.37%. Germany's "death rate" (deaths/positive tests) is 2.2%. In the US, it is 3.7%. In the UK, it is up to 12.5%. 1 out of every 8 people in the UK who have tested positive are dead.

I've been looking at the data from Alabama as its governor was defiant for awhile and they were late in imposing restrictions. The University of Washington's model had thousands dying there. Now it projects 431. Yesterday it projected 12 deaths there and there were only 2.

I think it's pretty clear that a one-size-fits all approach is not needed and individual states and localities can start determining what's the proper approach for them. Texas is apparently going to announce plans next week to ease restrictions. Not necessarily that the easing will be next week, but announcing what the plan will be then.

So far, 1 out of every 1,874 Californians have tested positive and 2.7% of those who have tested positive have died.

There have been about 20,000 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19. The most recent data I could find on US deaths was from 2018, when 2,813,503 died or 234,458 per month.

Leading causes of death:
  • Heart disease: 647,457
  • Cancer: 599,108
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
  • Diabetes: 83,564
  • Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
Our leaders were flying blind and had to err on the side of caution when ordering the statewide lockdown we've experienced. That was the correct thing to do and things would be much worse if they hadn't. LA County has now extended the stay at home order to May 15. The University of Washington COVID-19 model projects California will be at 0 deaths per day by May 13. And that model has been too high every step of the way, including yesterday.

We need to start planning to resume many activities in May. Most people need to be allowed to return to work. Mass gatherings, concerts, sporting events, movie theatres, restaurants and bars may need to remain closed, but otherwise, pretty much tell everyone to put on a mask, stay at safe distances as much as possible and get back to work by then.

Tell the elderly and infirm to keep isolating. Provide benefits to people at high risk who need to stay home. When positive cases are found, have them quarantined and perform tracing which would have been in the first place if the CDC hadn't botched the initial tests.
 
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HeadInjury said:
In a German town dealing with the coronavirus, 1,000 residents were randomly tested and 15% were found to have COVID-19 antibodies. Not enough to gain herd immunity but it places the actual death rate there at 0.37%. Germany's "death rate" (deaths/positive tests) is 2.2%. In the US, it is 3.7%. In the UK, it is up to 12.5%. 1 out of every 8 people in the UK who have tested positive are dead.

I've been looking at the data from Alabama as its governor was defiant for awhile and they were late in imposing restrictions. The University of Washington's model had thousands dying there. Now it projects 431. Yesterday it projected 12 deaths there and there were only 2.

I think it's pretty clear that a one-size-fits all approach is not needed and individual states and localities can start determining what's the proper approach for them. Texas is apparently going to announce plans next week to ease restrictions. Not necessarily that the easing will be next week, but announcing what the plan will be then.

So far, 1 out of every 1,874 Californians have tested positive and 2.7% of those who have tested positive have died.

There have been about 20,000 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19. The most recent data I could find on US deaths was from 2018, when 2,813,503 died or 234,458 per month.

Leading causes of death:
  • Heart disease: 647,457
  • Cancer: 599,108
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
  • Diabetes: 83,564
  • Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
Our leaders were flying blind and had to err on the side of caution when ordering the statewide lockdown we've experienced. That was the correct thing to do and things would be much worse if they hadn't. LA County has now extended the stay at home order to May 15. The University of Washington COVID-19 model projects California will be at 0 deaths per day by May 13. And that model has been too high every step of the way, including yesterday.

We need to start planning to resume many activities in May. Most people need to be allowed to return to work. Mass gatherings, concerts, sporting events, movie theatres, restaurants and bars may need to remain closed, but otherwise, pretty much tell everyone to put on a mask, stay at safe distances as much as possible and get back to work by then.

Tell the elderly and infirm to keep isolating. Provide benefits to people at high risk who need to stay home. When positive cases are found, have them quarantined and perform tracing which would have been in the first place if the CDC hadn't botched the initial tests.
Click to expand...
Another important item to note when determining the "mortality rate" is the number of tests per million citizens. Germany has tested over 15,700 Germans per million citizens. The United States has tested around 7,800 Americans per million citizens. In California it is only 4,200 people per million citizens.

While it is true the U.S. has run double the number of tests run by Germany, we also have four times the population of Germany.

We need the antibody test and soon. It is obvious the models have been grossly inaccurate, and we cannot continue creating public policy using these models. The more data available, the more obvious this will become.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,754,267 Cases and 106,997 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
 
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KINGS17 said:
Another important item to note when determining the "mortality rate" is the number of tests per million citizens. Germany has tested over 15,700 Germans per million citizens. The United States has tested around 7,800 Americans per million citizens. In California it is only 4,200 people per million citizens.

While it is true the U.S. has run double the number of tests run by Germany, we also have four times the population of Germany.

We need the antibody test and soon. It is obvious the models have been grossly inaccurate, and we cannot continue creating public policy using these models. The more data available, the more obvious this will become.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,754,267 Cases and 106,997 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Click to expand...



This is the biggest obstacle to slowly 're-opening' imo. There's just too much unknown.

And as soon as heavy travel re-opens, we're gonna get a second wave without an elaborate testing/tracing system. I have zero faith in the federal government to do this in short order. If we want to hurry up and fix the economy, we need to hurry up and have country-wide systems. It's nice to leave the local procedures up to the states as by and large state leaderships have been handling this much, much better than the US, but without consistency, those states that have been doing not well are going to wreck it for those who have been.

Just ramming people back to work is going to cause more damage.
 
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Raccoon Jesus said:
This is the biggest obstacle to slowly 're-opening' imo. There's just too much unknown.

And as soon as heavy travel re-opens, we're gonna get a second wave without an elaborate testing/tracing system. I have zero faith in the federal government to do this in short order. If we want to hurry up and fix the economy, we need to hurry up and have country-wide systems. It's nice to leave the local procedures up to the states as by and large state leaderships have been handling this much, much better than the US, but without consistency, those states that have been doing not well are going to wreck it for those who have been.

Just ramming people back to work is going to cause more damage.
Click to expand...
Testing definitely needs to be decentralized. The CDC failed miserably when it came to creating tests, getting them distributed, then having them read.

I don't expect travel, especially international travel to be a thing again any time soon. However, I am not going the rest of my life without ever visiting Rome or Paris again.
 
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