TSN: How the coronavirus could impact the NHL’s bottom line UPD: NHL Season suspended MOD Warning post139

[HeadInjury]

Pretty good news from the Cuomo press conference today.

606 deaths yesterday, 29 of those in nursing homes. That's almost 200 less than the peak. Total hospitalizations, ICUs and intubations all down. About 2,000 new positive tests yesterday.

Total hospitalizations peaked at under 19,000, just slightly under Cuomo's prediction a couple of weeks ago that it would max out at 140,000. Missed it by just that much.

 

[KINGS17]

Pretty good news from the Cuomo press conference today.

606 deaths yesterday, 29 of those in nursing homes. That's almost 200 less than the peak. Total hospitalizations, ICUs and intubations all down. About 2,000 new positive tests yesterday.

Total hospitalizations peaked at under 19,000, just slightly under Cuomo's prediction a couple of weeks ago that it would max out at 140,000. Missed it by just that much.

 

[AzKing]

LA City looks like could block any sports and concerts from happening even if they want to play: L.A. Mayor Garcetti Says Coronavirus Could End Sports, Concerts Until 2021

 

[KINGS17]

LA City looks like could block any sports and concerts from happening even if they want to play: L.A. Mayor Garcetti Says Coronavirus Could End Sports, Concerts Until 2021

I think it is premature to take this position. Until the antibody testing is readily available Garcetti has no idea regarding the total number of cases, and the actual mortality rate.

He also isn't taking into account treatments that are being studied and their efficacy.

I found it quite funny that one of Governor Newsom's six points for returning to normal is having school children be able to practice social distancing. This would be akin to taking my dog to the dog park and being able to keep him from sniffing that other dog's butt.

We are going to have to insist on better answers to this from the politicians. Maybe instead of shutting everything down for another 5-12 months, we should shut down visits to Grandma and Grandpa and other at risk people until we are satisfied with our ability to vaccinate against the virus or treat it.

When we started the stay at home program the reason given was to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed with patients. Now the focus has seemingly shifted to reducing the mortality rate from a percentage we don't know today to a lower percentage we still won't know tomorrow.

 

[LAKings88]

Double post

 

[LAKings88]

I don’t want to waste what we have all been through and done to limit deaths so far by not having a solid plan to return safely. Where the fook is rapid testing? Still waiting on that.

 

[tny760]

We are going to have to insist on better answers to this from the politicians.

ha

hahah

hahahahahahhaha

answers from politicians

maybe after they finish their golf trips or when they stop bragging about their $20k fridges full of $13/pint ice cream

i'd rather drop dead from corona myself at this point than listen to another backpedaling politician speaking about something light years out of their wheelhouse

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

We drove down Saturday morning to the Westminster Mall to brave the crowd and get tested.

Arriving at about 8:15 for the 9am opening we were told it would be a 5 1/2 hour wait. About 2 1/2 hours into it we got bumped to a different area as my wife is a nurse and we got the VIP table with a hostess and bottles of Dom. I may have exaggerated some details there.

I had gone to Montana the first weekend of March with some buddies on a snowboard trip. 4 of the 8 of us had tested positive for Covid-19 and I had been sick but never tested.

Sure as shit, I tested positive for the antibodies.

The strange things is no one else, including my wife tested positive from the household, though she was sick last week and we believe if we go back she may test positive for the antibodies.

I am also Diabetic and Asthmatic, I consider myself very lucky today.

Stay healthy Brochacho's.

Wow. Asthmatics can have a real tough time getting off a vent so you're super lucky. Every day is a gift.

I'm a nurse myself and would recommend looking into the donation of antibodies if you're up for it, they can spin down and irradiate with x ray most things to make it safe but diabetes alone shouldn't preclude one from donating blood. I've not heard of that. The donation would at least help those studying it move this disease process along so please think about it. There are a lot of people out there who really need the help.

 

[KINGS17]

Some disappointing news on antibody testing. Rapid response antibody testing appears to be giving too many fault results.

Faulty antibody kits deal blow to Britain’s effort to speed up virus testing

The tests either show too many negatives, indicating people aren’t immune when in fact they were exposed to the virus, or too many positives, which suggests someone is protected when they aren’t.

“We clearly want to avoid telling people they are immune when they are not, and we want all people who are immune to know accurately so they can get back to work,” Bell said.

Even more disappointing are indications people with mild symptoms seem to have a low level of antibodies, and may be candidates for re-infection.

Low antibody levels raise questions about coronavirus reinfection risk

A team from Fudan University analysed blood samples from 175 patients discharged from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre and found that nearly a third had unexpectedly low levels of antibodies.

In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all.

“Whether these patients were at high risk of rebound or reinfection should be explored in further studies,” the team wrote in preliminary research released on Monday on Medrxiv.org, an online platform for preprint papers.

The identification of COVID-19 convalescent patients with low levels of antibodies causes problems for development of a vaccine.

Huang said 10 of the patients in the study had an antibody presence so low it could not even be detected in the laboratory.

These patients experienced typical Covid-19 symptoms including fever, chill and a cough, but might have beaten back the virus with other parts of the immune system such as T-cells or cytokines.

How they did this was still unclear. “Vaccine developers may need to pay particular attention to these patients,” Huang said. If the real virus could not induce antibody response, the weakened version in the vaccine might not work in these patients either.

I think the bottom line at this time is that treatment of the disease is going to be much more important than the vaccine. Blood plasma transfusions from convalescent patients who have a sufficient number of antibodies are going to become even more important. The only good news I see here is that healthy young people are not at high risk for death as they were with the Spanish flu back in the 1920's, so they may not need to be inoculated. Older people who have contracted COVID-19 seem to have produced antibodies in sufficient numbers to cause immunity.

Maybe the way to go forward is to immediately transfuse anyone over a certain age who contracts the disease with convalescent plasma. Tough problem to solve. We are going to have to start risking more at some point to restart the economy.

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

Here's some potential good news (on two fronts, actually):

Coronavirus: More than 48,000 already infected in Santa Clara County, Stanford study finds

 

[KINGS17]

Here's some potential good news (on two fronts, actually):

Coronavirus: More than 48,000 already infected in Santa Clara County, Stanford study finds

Actually that is great news. I was working in Santa Clara County in October and December of last year, and February of this year for about six weeks total. I wouldn't mind having been infected and been asymptomatic, but I doubt that is the case because with the holidays I was around a lot of family members and friends and I don't recall any of them being sick with flu-like symptoms at any time during the flu season.

The denominator is becoming better defined. We can't let this virus control us much longer.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I feel like there has to be some breakthrough in testing and treatment at some point, right?

That's been the biggest foil so far, with most places effectively slowing the curve.

To go with what K17 said, we always knew there were asymptomatic carriers; if it ends up being something to where the rate of people infected actually goes way up driving down the lethality, it will be hard to make a case against opening things up with cautions. I STILL think telecommuting as much as possible, avoiding sports sized gatherings, and protecting at-risk populations will be necessary until there is absolute clarity on treatment if not vaccines. The uncertainty is still the issue, unfortunately.

 

[Fishhead]

Here's some potential good news (on two fronts, actually):

Coronavirus: More than 48,000 already infected in Santa Clara County, Stanford study finds

Well, that's a non-random study, so those results could be way off. A lot of studies utilize non-probability sampling because it's way cheaper and easier, but in order for the data to be useful the variable or attribute being tested has to be randomized throughout the population. In this case, COVID would have to have essentially the same affects on people regardless of demographics, age, etc., which it clearly does not. These are clearly going to be overestimated for the simple fact that it's going to draw people who were sick and want to get tested. Under normal circumstances, a study like this wouldn't even have results released as it may not hold up when vetted by peers, but we need data and even very flawed studies can help.

One thing for sure is we are finally getting verification that many more infections are out there than are confirmed, as most scientists and doctors have suspected all along.

With all the manpower being put into this worldwide, I'm confident that a treatment is going to be discovered before long that can hold us over until an effective vaccine is manufactured. That said, the key to returning to any semblance of normalcy is testing, and we still really suck at that.

 

[LAKings88]

I’m all for reopening when it is safe to do so and in a way that will not cause a second wave. I can’t stand the liberate me crowd tho. The stay in place orders have lessened the death toll. There is a reason we have done it. There is no conspiracy to tank the economy. MOD political territory

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Well, that's a non-random study, so those results could be way off. A lot of studies utilize non-probability sampling because it's way cheaper and easier, but in order for the data to be useful the variable or attribute being tested has to be randomized throughout the population. In this case, COVID would have to have essentially the same affects on people regardless of demographics, age, etc., which it clearly does not. These are clearly going to be overestimated for the simple fact that it's going to draw people who were sick and want to get tested. Under normal circumstances, a study like this wouldn't even have results released as it may not hold up when vetted by peers, but we need data and even very flawed studies can help.

One thing for sure is we are finally getting verification that many more infections are out there than are confirmed, as most scientists and doctors have suspected all along.

With all the manpower being put into this worldwide, I'm confident that a treatment is going to be discovered before long that can hold us over until an effective vaccine is manufactured. That said, the key to returning to any semblance of normalcy is testing, and we still really suck at that.

This probably isn't helpful because I don't remember the source (it was credible though)--but those results apparently jived well with what Germany and some others have found with random studies. I'll see if I can dig it up.

 

[KINGS17]

Cuomo is reporting 2,000 new cases in New York today, and emphasizing nursing homes are still the most vulnerable places to be in society.

He thinks the 2,000 new cases are terrible news, but I think it depends on the demographics of those new cases. If the new cases are occurring in nursing homes, then the government and administrators of those homes are not doing their job very well. If the new cases are mostly among healthy people who are not at great risk, then NYC is starting to build some herd immunity, and given the proximity and inability of citizens of NYC to isolate themselves from others, it should be expected.

 

[HeadInjury]

The University of Washingtom COVID-19 model was been updated again, now projecting 60,000 deaths. The projection for New York went up to 21,812. Elsewhere, for the most part, there is a trend downward.

There are 7 states that did not implement stay-at-home orders (although all closed their schools). Here is what the model projects now in terms of total deaths through early August.

Arkansas: 158
Iowa: 624
Nebraska: 127
North Dakota: 149
South Dakota: 94
Utah: 202
Wyoming: 243

Proof that a one-size-fits-all approach is not needed.

Recently the legacy media (Joe Rogan's term - love it) has been trying to make an issue about South Dakota's governor not issuing a stay at home order. The story goes that South Dakota is a new hot spot. The truth is that there is a large food processing plant there which employs 3,700 people and had a major breakout with 500 infected. More than half of the total cases in the state can be traced to there. Had a stay at home order been issued, the plant would have been operating just the same since it's an essential business. Even with that, less than 100 deaths in the whole state are projected and most of those probably would have happened anyway if a stay at home order had been issued. The governor's decision looks correct so far.

The goal posts have been moved from shutting things down so healthcare facilities aren't overwhelmed to keeping things shut down to limit deaths. A compassionate goal, but completely unsustainable in the long term. I understand there are risks with lowering restrictions, and more people will get infected and more will die, but over 20 million people have lost their jobs in the last 3 weeks and it is going to keep getting worse. There needs to be a balance struck, with people at highest risk continuing to shelter in place, and the rest of us resuming more of a normal life while wearing face masks, washing our hands and keeping our distance as much a possible.

By the way, Texas' projection is for only 957 deaths.

 

[KINGS17]

The University of Washingtom COVID-19 model was been updated again, now projecting 60,000 deaths. The projection for New York went up to 21,812. Elsewhere, for the most part, there is a trend downward.

There are 7 states that did not implement stay-at-home orders (although all closed their schools). Here is what the model projects now in terms of total deaths through early August.

Arkansas: 158
Iowa: 624
Nebraska: 127
North Dakota: 149
South Dakota: 94
Utah: 202
Wyoming: 243

Proof that a one-size-fits-all approach is not needed.

Recently the legacy media (Joe Rogan's term - love it) has been trying to make an issue about South Dakota's governor not issuing a stay at home order. The story goes that South Dakota is a new hot spot. The truth is that there is a large food processing plant there which employs 3,700 people and had a major breakout with 500 infected. More than half of the total cases in the state can be traced to there. Had a stay at home order been issued, the plant would have been operating just the same since it's an essential business. Even with that, less than 100 deaths in the whole state are projected and most of those probably would have happened anyway if a stay at home order had been issued. The governor's decision looks correct so far.

The goal posts have been moved from shutting things down so healthcare facilities aren't overwhelmed to keeping things shut down to limit deaths. A compassionate goal, but completely unsustainable in the long term. I understand there are risks with lowering restrictions, and more people will get injected and more will die, but over 20 million people have lost their jobs in the last 3 weeks and it is going to keep getting worse. There needs to be a balance struck, with people at highest risk continuing to shelter in place, and the rest of us resuming more of a normal life while wearing face masks, washing our hands and keeping our distance as much a possible.

By the way, Texas' projection is for only 957 deaths.

Who are the bastards going around and injecting people with COVID-19? I know just a difference between the left and right index finger on the keyboard, but it kind of made me chuckle a little. You made an excellent point in your post. As we go forward it is going to be more and more incumbent upon local officials to tamp down any hot spots which spring up.

Most counties in the country can start getting back to work now while taking proper precautions.

 

[LA Kings Cup Champs]

Here's an interesting article from a mathematical/statistical perspective.

We Are 100 Times Safer Now Than In Early March: Here is the Math - Insider Monkey

Basically says when the first death was reported, there was probably 25,000 people infected already.
If all these experts didn't take this into account for their estimated death toll calculations, it makes sense that they're starting to adjust their numbers as more data becomes available.
Because positive tests now doesn't mean they got infected today, it means these people have been sick for about 2 weeks already.

Also when you read a lot of these stories of people who tested positive, many of these positive tests are for people that are already improving or recovered.

I am really tired of hearing crap like this when the numbers show themselves to be totally different. I have read many stories like this over the past month and heard numerous "professionals" claim that the death rate for this virus is around 1 percent or even lower. The numbers say otherwise!

Now let me preface this by saying that I AM NOT a mathematician, nor am I a statistician. But I do know how to calculate and track numbers to find "probable" outcomes.

I having been tracking this virus since March 19th, nearly one month ago, and I have found MUCH different numbers than ALL of the "professionals." Like I said before, I am NO mathematician, so I have not invented some new formula for quantifying numbers. Also, I have no 'inside track' to any numbers that other don't have access to. I have simply taken the numbers that the this website (Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,320,723 Cases and 159,475 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer) has been posting on a daily basis. The stats that this website has been presenting is inline with the numbers that the John Hopkins website has been presenting - currently, the John Hopkins website shows 37,659 and Worldometers shows 38,244 - so the end results of my findings SHOULD not deviate much. What the Worldometers website does is show you all of the numbers that matter for figuring out this virus on a spreadsheet.

For sake of this discussion, we will be focusing on the U.S. If you scroll down on the first page of the Worldometer website you will see a spreadsheet with all of the countries around the world and what their current numbers are. If you click on the USA link you will be taken to a sub-page that breaks down all of the US numbers by state. Also, you will be able to see a stat that NO one is talking about. The first number that you will see will be the total cases, to date, for the U.S. The next number that you will see will be the total deaths in the U.S., so far. Then the next number you will see is the total number of people that has successfully recovered from this disease, thus far. Then below that will see a box marked "Closed Cases". This box shows you the death rate of all of the closed cases thus far, and that number is STAGGERING! Why is this number staggering? Because, no one, and I mean NO ONE, is talking about a 37% death rate for this virus!

Now lets break this information down a bit.

Obviously this is a very high number because it is being skewed by the fact that the first people to go to the hospital were the ones in the worst shape, so I expect this number to go down as the severity of cases drop and we start to see more, "not-so-sick" people start to get tested and added to the total number of cases (denominator). But, even as such, the way that I see it, there is nothing showing me that this current death rate percentage will change much, unless we have hit some sort of saturation in the populous (meaning that ALL of the most vulnerable people have already been infected and the rest of the country are the not-so vulnerable ones). But I know that this is not true, because there are MANY retirement homes around this country that are yet to be hit.So, as I see it, (based on the current numbers) - 728,000 total cases at a 35-37% death rate - there will be 250,000 to 275,000 U.S. deaths within the next 3-4 weeks.

Someone please find holes in my logic, because I don't like what I see right now!


As a side note, in the box titled "Closed Cases" that I mentioned above, there is a link that says "Show Graph". I recommend that you click this link so that you can a chart of the death rate for the U.S. over the past 6-8 weeks. At one point the death rate for the U.S. was at 69%, so it has already dropped once before, but the percentage has been fluctuating between 35-40% for a solid 3 weeks now.

 

[LA Kings Cup Champs]

To add to my above post, Sars-CoV-1, back in 2002, had a death rate of 15%. I don't see why we would expect Sars-CoV-2 to be less lethal that is obsolete little brother. I believe that the death rate for this virus will be between 15-20%. And to add to that, this is the 3rd Coronavirus to ever hit mankind and the first two (SARS and MERS) never had a vaccine created for them, so I don't know why anyone would believe that we will find a vaccine for this 'thing' within the next 12-18 months. We are in uncharted territory and our backs are against the wall. We are basically "flying-blind" at this point. And with our dismal rate of testing, we don't even have eyes to see out of at this point.

To be more clear, we are currently fighting the creature from Predator and testing kits are our eyes. We can't see SHIT right now!!!

I would not be surprised if we end up live with this thing for a full decade. I certainly hope that we don't but we are more likely to be with it for a decade that we are to eradicate it with 12-18 months.

 

[LA Kings Cup Champs]

And just to make sure that we are all on the same page...this is what the Governor of New York said, at his press conference yesterday, that the President said to him in a phone conversation that they had earlier that day:

"I don't want to get involved in testing (kits for America) it's too complicated, it's too hard!!!
-Donald Trump.


This is our President...and this is how he is taking care of his people.

Just let that sink in!

 

[tny760]

i think you need to step outside for a minute and take a breath of fresh air

 

[LA Kings Cup Champs]

i think you need to step outside for a minute and take a breath of fresh air

With all due respect, if you don't have something constructive to add to the conversation than please don't participate. I am not giving opinions here. I have only laid out facts. If these facts blow your mind, than I understand. But please only respond if you have facts to back up your words.

Thanks.

 

[KINGS17]

I am really tired of hearing crap like this when the numbers show themselves to be totally different. I have read many stories like this over the past month and heard numerous "professionals" claim that the death rate for this virus is around 1 percent or even lower. The numbers say otherwise!

Now let me preface this by saying that I AM NOT a mathematician, nor am I a statistician. But I do know how to calculate and track numbers to find "probable" outcomes.

I having been tracking this virus since March 19th, nearly one month ago, and I have found MUCH different numbers than ALL of the "professionals." Like I said before, I am NO mathematician, so I have not invented some new formula for quantifying numbers. Also, I have no 'inside track' to any numbers that other don't have access to. I have simply taken the numbers that the this website (Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,320,723 Cases and 159,475 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer) has been posting on a daily basis. The stats that this website has been presenting is inline with the numbers that the John Hopkins website has been presenting - currently, the John Hopkins website shows 37,659 and Worldometers shows 38,244 - so the end results of my findings SHOULD not deviate much. What the Worldometers website does is show you all of the numbers that matter for figuring out this virus on a spreadsheet.

For sake of this discussion, we will be focusing on the U.S. If you scroll down on the first page of the Worldometer website you will see a spreadsheet with all of the countries around the world and what their current numbers are. If you click on the USA link you will be taken to a sub-page that breaks down all of the US numbers by state. Also, you will be able to see a stat that NO one is talking about. The first number that you will see will be the total cases, to date, for the U.S. The next number that you will see will be the total deaths in the U.S., so far. Then the next number you will see is the total number of people that has successfully recovered from this disease, thus far. Then below that will see a box marked "Closed Cases". This box shows you the death rate of all of the closed cases thus far, and that number is STAGGERING! Why is this number staggering? Because, no one, and I mean NO ONE, is talking about a 37% death rate for this virus!

Now lets break this information down a bit.

Obviously this is a very high number because it is being skewed by the fact that the first people to go to the hospital were the ones in the worst shape, so I expect this number to go down as the severity of cases drop and we start to see more, "not-so-sick" people start to get tested and added to the total number of cases (denominator). But, even as such, the way that I see it, there is nothing showing me that this current death rate percentage will change much, unless we have hit some sort of saturation in the populous (meaning that ALL of the most vulnerable people have already been infected and the rest of the country are the not-so vulnerable ones). But I know that this is not true, because there are MANY retirement homes around this country that are yet to be hit.So, as I see it, (based on the current numbers) - 728,000 total cases at a 35-37% death rate - there will be 250,000 to 275,000 U.S. deaths within the next 3-4 weeks.

Someone please find holes in my logic, because I don't like what I see right now!


As a side note, in the box titled "Closed Cases" that I mentioned above, there is a link that says "Show Graph". I recommend that you click this link so that you can a chart of the death rate for the U.S. over the past 6-8 weeks. At one point the death rate for the U.S. was at 69%, so it has already dropped once before, but the percentage has been fluctuating between 35-40% for a solid 3 weeks now.

Your figure for the mortality rate is way off because you are only considering cases marked as "closed". You are not considered the thousands of people infected by the virus who never had a case "opened", yet they recovered. Those cases, which you are not counting" should be added to the denominator (deaths / total cases).

 

[LA Kings Cup Champs]

Your figure for the mortality rate is way off because you are only considering cases marked as "closed". You are not considered the thousands of people infected by the virus who never had a case "opened", yet they recovered. Those cases, which you are not counting" should be added to the denominator (deaths / total cases).

I covered that by saying that the 37% is not the final number because of all of the unknown cases. But, those numbers do not take away from the fact that the current numbers show 250,000 by May 15th. And 250,000 is WAY above the 60,000 that everyone is clinging to.

Listen, I am not saying that I am right, and we will definitely see. But I will lay out the figures that I have right now and we will see if the numbers match up as the days pass.

Right now the totals deaths are doubling every week. So here is what my numbers show.

U.S. Death Totals by week:

4/20 45,000
4/27 90,000
5/4 180,000
5/11 360,000

I think that 360,000 is a little high but that is what the numbers are showing right now.


Hopefully this post can get pinned so that it can easily be found as the weeks go on.


Edit: Since I have been downloading all of the information, each day, from Worldometer I have all of the past data on hand. So just to show you the full picture I will give you the death totals for each of the past 4 weeks as well as the projected numbers:

3/23 553
3/30 3,141
4/6 10,871
4/13 23,640

4/20 45,000
4/27 90,000
5/4 180,000
5/11 360,000

We shall see how things play out!