TSN: How the coronavirus could impact the NHL’s bottom line UPD: NHL Season suspended MOD Warning post139

[Bandit]

Californians may have developed some herd immunity to coronavirus last year, Stanford team theorizes

I suffer from chronic bronchitis, and last Fall, I had by far the worst respiratory infection of my life (also got a nasty fever, which I almost never get, ironically). I know: one anecdote /=/ evidence, but interesting timing...

OTOH, the sheer amount of likely-already-infected-travelers from Europe (Northern Italy) in early-2020 could well be the more probable factor for the disparity.

This is where lack of testing really sucks ass. My wife and I were both sick as f*** in December with a dry cough that lasted for weeks. Did we have covid? Maybe, maybe not, but it would be really f***ing nice to know right about now.

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

This is where lack of testing really sucks ass. My wife and I were both sick as f*** in December with a dry cough that lasted for weeks. Did we have covid? Maybe, maybe not, but it would be really f***ing nice to know right about now.

I hear you. The more I think about it, though, the "prior-visitor" theory is probably not valid - as this article alludes: if it was COVID-19 back then, we most likely would've had the pandemic-effect then:

No, You Did Not Get COVID-19 in the Fall of 2019

(The antibody test is still obviously important for current sufferers, though, as K17 has been pointing out).

 

[Bandit]

I hear you. The more I think about it, though, the "prior-visitor" theory is probably not valid - as this article alludes: if it was COVID-19 back then, we most likely would've had the pandemic-effect then:

No, You Did Not Get COVID-19 in the Fall of 2019

(The antibody test is still obviously important for current sufferers, though, as K17 has been pointing out).

Yeah I mean the chances are slim but still would be nice to know. The fact that testing is still so piss poor... I dunno how we’re going to go back to normal without an effective treatment or vaccine, and that feels much further away than getting testing sorted out which is still a clusterf***.

 

[Master Yoda]

In a German town dealing with the coronavirus, 1,000 residents were randomly tested and 15% were found to have COVID-19 antibodies. Not enough to gain herd immunity but it places the actual death rate there at 0.37%. Germany's "death rate" (deaths/positive tests) is 2.2%. In the US, it is 3.7%. In the UK, it is up to 12.5%. 1 out of every 8 people in the UK who have tested positive are dead.

I've been looking at the data from Alabama as its governor was defiant for awhile and they were late in imposing restrictions. The University of Washington's model had thousands dying there. Now it projects 431. Yesterday it projected 12 deaths there and there were only 2.

I think it's pretty clear that a one-size-fits all approach is not needed and individual states and localities can start determining what's the proper approach for them. Texas is apparently going to announce plans next week to ease restrictions. Not necessarily that the easing will be next week, but announcing what the plan will be then.

So far, 1 out of every 1,874 Californians have tested positive and 2.7% of those who have tested positive have died.

There have been about 20,000 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19. The most recent data I could find on US deaths was from 2018, when 2,813,503 died or 234,458 per month.

Leading causes of death:

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Our leaders were flying blind and had to err on the side of caution when ordering the statewide lockdown we've experienced. That was the correct thing to do and things would be much worse if they hadn't. LA County has now extended the stay at home order to May 15. The University of Washington COVID-19 model projects California will be at 0 deaths per day by May 13. And that model has been too high every step of the way, including yesterday.

We need to start planning to resume many activities in May. Most people need to be allowed to return to work. Mass gatherings, concerts, sporting events, movie theatres, restaurants and bars may need to remain closed, but otherwise, pretty much tell everyone to put on a mask, stay at safe distances as much as possible and get back to work by then.

Tell the elderly and infirm to keep isolating. Provide benefits to people at high risk who need to stay home. When positive cases are found, have them quarantined and perform tracing which would have been in the first place if the CDC hadn't botched the initial tests.

Here's an interesting article from a mathematical/statistical perspective.

We Are 100 Times Safer Now Than In Early March: Here is the Math - Insider Monkey

Basically says when the first death was reported, there was probably 25,000 people infected already.
If all these experts didn't take this into account for their estimated death toll calculations, it makes sense that they're starting to adjust their numbers as more data becomes available.
Because positive tests now doesn't mean they got infected today, it means these people have been sick for about 2 weeks already.

Also when you read a lot of these stories of people who tested positive, many of these positive tests are for people that are already improving or recovered.

 

[Matt13]

We drove down Saturday morning to the Westminster Mall to brave the crowd and get tested.

Arriving at about 8:15 for the 9am opening we were told it would be a 5 1/2 hour wait. About 2 1/2 hours into it we got bumped to a different area as my wife is a nurse and we got the VIP table with a hostess and bottles of Dom. I may have exaggerated some details there.

I had gone to Montana the first weekend of March with some buddies on a snowboard trip. 4 of the 8 of us had tested positive for Covid-19 and I had been sick but never tested.

Sure as shit, I tested positive for the antibodies.

The strange things is no one else, including my wife tested positive from the household, though she was sick last week and we believe if we go back she may test positive for the antibodies.

I am also Diabetic and Asthmatic, I consider myself very lucky today.

Stay healthy Brochacho's.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

We drove down Saturday morning to the Westminster Mall to brave the crowd and get tested.

Arriving at about 8:15 for the 9am opening we were told it would be a 5 1/2 hour wait. About 2 1/2 hours into it we got bumped to a different area as my wife is a nurse and we got the VIP table with a hostess and bottles of Dom. I may have exaggerated some details there.

I had gone to Montana the first weekend of March with some buddies on a snowboard trip. 4 of the 8 of us had tested positive for Covid-19 and I had been sick but never tested.

Sure as shit, I tested positive for the antibodies.

The strange things is no one else, including my wife tested positive from the household, though she was sick last week and we believe if we go back she may test positive for the antibodies.

I am also Diabetic and Asthmatic, I consider myself very lucky today.

Stay healthy Brochacho's.

Holy shit man glad you're safe.

It really is a wild virus. I'm no expert but I suspect the 'real' death rate will be more like .5-1% when all is said and done just due to how many people are walking around infected and untested due to low degrees of sickness. But it's also really wild how volatile it appears to be.

 

[KINGS17]

We drove down Saturday morning to the Westminster Mall to brave the crowd and get tested.

Arriving at about 8:15 for the 9am opening we were told it would be a 5 1/2 hour wait. About 2 1/2 hours into it we got bumped to a different area as my wife is a nurse and we got the VIP table with a hostess and bottles of Dom. I may have exaggerated some details there.

I had gone to Montana the first weekend of March with some buddies on a snowboard trip. 4 of the 8 of us had tested positive for Covid-19 and I had been sick but never tested.

Sure as shit, I tested positive for the antibodies.

The strange things is no one else, including my wife tested positive from the household, though she was sick last week and we believe if we go back she may test positive for the antibodies.

I am also Diabetic and Asthmatic, I consider myself very lucky today.

Stay healthy Brochacho's.

Great news @Matt13, and as always super avatar. Love the Warthog!!

What did the hostess look like, was she hot?

Any chance you will make a plasma donation with your antibodies? Has anyone reached out to you to ask you to do so? Just wondering if the medical authorities are getting in touch with people who have the antibodies.

 

[Matt13]

Double Downed a post

 

[Matt13]

Great news @Matt13, and as always super avatar. Love the Warthog!!

What did the hostess look like, was she hot?

Any chance you will make a plasma donation with your antibodies? Has anyone reached out to you to ask you to do so? Just wondering if the medical authorities are getting in touch with people who have the antibodies.

She must have been 22 or 23, skinny little thing with huge knockers. You know the type, pretending like she interested but just wanting a bigger tip.

No one has contacted me nor did they suggest it. In fact they seemed surprised at my test results and asked to keep my tester to share with others as my results were one of the first to so show the antibodies. I asked the nurse and she said she hadn't seen any positive results for them at the time. I probably would be willing to donate but not sure if being on injectables for insulin and other meds would exclude me from doing so.

Also, last summer at the HB Airshow, an A10 was doing flyovers. It was so epic to see that bad boy.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

 

[Steve Zissou]

So if sports are canceled even into the summer can we just get it over with and announce that Gryffindor has won Lord Stanley's Cup?

 

[KINGS17]

MLB is thinking about having a baseball season played solely in Arizona and Florida without fans in attendance. Players would be tested, sequestered in hotels, etc.

Some interesting divisions would be introduced for the 2020 season.

Cactus League vs. Grapefruit League?

 

[KopitarFAN]

^Sign me up for that.

 

[KINGS17]

oops double post

 

[Bandit]

Makes sense. I’m not sure how we can even go back to work without at least one of those things.

 

[The Tikkanen]

MLB is thinking about having a baseball season played solely in Arizona and Florida without fans in attendance. Players would be tested, sequestered in hotels, etc.

Some interesting divisions would be introduced for the 2020 season.

Cactus League vs. Grapefruit League?

The only issue I can see is if I'm a player like Mike Trout do I want to risk death to play baseball? There will be at least one player who balks at being forced to play during a pandemic for which there is no cure. It will be the same when people's jobs open back up.

 

[KopitarFAN]

The only issue I can see is if I'm a player like Mike Trout do I want to risk death to play baseball? There will be at least one player who balks at being forced to play during a pandemic for which there is no cure. It will be the same when people's jobs open back up.

Wouldn't really be fair for one guy (who is sitting on half a billion dollars) or even the great minority who are set for life (multiple times over), to decide the fate of the many guys who weren't "bonus babies" when they were drafted, road the buses for 4 years making nothing in the minors and now they are finally getting their first chance at making some real money.

 

[Mike Jones]

Isn't this prediction contingent on the status of testing, vaccines, cures, etc?

 

[Bandit]

Isn't this prediction contingent on the status of testing, vaccines, cures, etc?

He says exactly that in the quote?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Again, sounds like they're hoping for the best and planning for the worst.

Vaccine finding and, more important to full normalcy, mass production is a loooong way out.

Antibody testing is awesome but only provided we start to find out people can't get sick more than once this year, and testing is still sorely, sorely lacking.

Hoping for the best though means maybe something random happens--we stumble upon a phenomenal treatment; we've done enough for the virus to just sort of peter out, or it mutates and dies on its own; the vaccine already exists in some form, etc.

But it would be nigh impossible to responsibly host an event with 15000+ people if none of the above is possible.

It's pretty clear that we'll be heading for some sort of 'soft open' with people working hard from home, controlled flow in retail stores and restaurants, masks in public, maybe antibody passports, etc. and even that will have to be managed when there are outbreaks.

 

[Mike Jones]

He says exactly that in the quote?

Oops. Thanks!

 

[Nickster]

Is COVID-19 and SARS-COV-2 the same thing? And why is there such push back for Hydroxychloroquine? Supposedly it is safer than Chloroquine. I don't know if this is relevant but our government published this a while back: Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread about SARS-COV, not the same I know, but under the conclusion "Chloroquine, a relatively safe, effective and cheap drug used for treating many human diseases including malaria, amoebiosis and human immunodeficiency virus is effective in inhibiting the infection and spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. The fact that the drug has significant inhibitory antiviral effect when the susceptible cells were treated either prior to or after infection suggests a possible prophylactic and therapeutic use."

 

[Herby]

Is COVID-19 and SARS-COV-2 the same thing? And why is there such push back for Hydroxychloroquine? Supposedly it is safer than Chloroquine. I don't know if this is relevant but our government published this a while back: Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread about SARS-COV, not the same I know, but under the conclusion "Chloroquine, a relatively safe, effective and cheap drug used for treating many human diseases including malaria, amoebiosis and human immunodeficiency virus is effective in inhibiting the infection and spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. The fact that the drug has significant inhibitory antiviral effect when the susceptible cells were treated either prior to or after infection suggests a possible prophylactic and therapeutic use."

Why do you think the idiots in the media are pushing back at Hydroxychloroquine?

It's painfully obvious. They are a disgrace.

 

[Nickster]

Why do you think the idiots in the media are pushing back at Hydroxychloroquine?

It's painfully obvious. They are a disgrace.

The conclusion in the article mentions "human immunodeficiency virus." Dr. Fauci made his name as an HIV/AIDS researcher, and he is so squirrelly when talking about what he knows about chloroquine's efficacy and safety in any context, just saying "anecdotal evidence". Yes. Disgraceful.

 

[Herby]

MLB is thinking about having a baseball season played solely in Arizona and Florida without fans in attendance. Players would be tested, sequestered in hotels, etc.

Some interesting divisions would be introduced for the 2020 season.

Cactus League vs. Grapefruit League?

Angels and Dodgers division could be tough, the White Sox and Reds are intriguing teams this year. The Northwest division is awful.