Salary Cap: How much AAV are you willing to give Tyson Barrie on a 7-8 year extension?

[biotk]

Barrie sacrifices defense to join or lead the attack up the ice every chance he gets still playing with the forward mentality as he tries to beat opposition 1-1 and go end to end when he has the puck.

Expected goals against per 60:

Barrie 2.28 (lowest on the Avs among top 4 D)
Muzzin 2.35 (note this was the exact same during this time in LA last season - 2.349 - as during his time in Toronto - 2.349)
Zaitsev 2.45
Gardiner 2.46
Hainsey 2.71
Rielly 2.80

Time to panic.

 

[Mess]

Leafs have inquired into Barrie for years as he has been available dating back years.

Here was a great article from 2016 and analyzing Barrie.

Tyson Barrie has some of the worst Corsi numbers in the NHL

Three years into his career, Tyson Barrie is top of the list of trade rumours. But he is challenging for bottom of the list in Corsi. Is that a measure of the man or the team? Is this a deal the Leafs should try to make? On May 13,2016 Elliotte Friedman told the Edmonton radio audience that he thinks the Colorado Avalanche are trying to trade Tyson Barrie. Friedman, whose rumours often prove to be very true......

"The eye test

Barrie is not like other defencemen in how he plays. His approach to the game makes the Karlsson comparison slightly more valid, but he is even more of a puck handling, shooting, fourth forward than Karlsson is.

I've seen seasoned commentators flummoxed by watching him repeatedly be the first man into the offensive zone with the forwards trailing well behind. Not just the guy who carries the puck across and passes it off, the guy who drives the net like he's the star center on a breakaway. I've seen opposing teams caught out by that as well. He is fearless in going deep, frequently playing as the deepest member of the team in the offensive zone. But is that part of the problem?".

If you like analytics then this is a good read for you.

Link: Tyson Barrie has some of the worst Corsi numbers in the NHL

 

[MyBudJT]

Primary Points per minute at even strength rank (min 1000 minutes played):

Barrie

18-19: #5
17-18: #3
16-17: #3
15-16: #28
14-15: #9
13-14: #2

Shattenkirk

18-19: #71
17-18: ---
16-17: #23
15-16: #54
14-15: #36
13-14: #100


I feel like leafs fans have let the main board convince them that Barrie is much less than what he actually is.

Zeke, I thought you were supposed to be some kind of analytical guru.

Nobody is arguing that he can't help put the puck in the net... they're arguing his effectiveness of a complete player. As important is it is to be able to produce offensively, its ALSO important to be competent defensively.

Fact of the matter is, he isn't all that good at keeping the puck out of the net.

Last 3 seasons, he's 65th in the NHL in goals allowed, despite playing next to no PK time, and almost everyone ahead of him played significant PK time. Add the fact that he starts a LOT more in the offensive zone than the defensive zone, and that is pretty bad.

 

[zeke]

Leafs have inquired into Barrie for years as he has been available dating back years.

Here was a great article from 2016 and analyzing Barrie.

Tyson Barrie has some of the worst Corsi numbers in the NHL

Three years into his career, Tyson Barrie is top of the list of trade rumours. But he is challenging for bottom of the list in Corsi. Is that a measure of the man or the team? Is this a deal the Leafs should try to make? On May 13,2016 Elliotte Friedman told the Edmonton radio audience that he thinks the Colorado Avalanche are trying to trade Tyson Barrie. Friedman, whose rumours often prove to be very true......

"The eye test

Barrie is not like other defencemen in how he plays. His approach to the game makes the Karlsson comparison slightly more valid, but he is even more of a puck handling, shooting, fourth forward than Karlsson is.

I've seen seasoned commentators flummoxed by watching him repeatedly be the first man into the offensive zone with the forwards trailing well behind. Not just the guy who carries the puck across and passes it off, the guy who drives the net like he's the star center on a breakaway".

If you like analytics then this is a good read for you.

Link: Tyson Barrie has some of the worst Corsi numbers in the NHL

1. pro-tip: posting 3 year old articles is very, very dumb.

2. Last 3 years, adjusted for zone usage: +0.8cfrel, -0.6xgfrel

He doesn't have bad corsi numbers, at all.

 

[biotk]

Muzzin will make the perfect partner and the one providing the defensive presence for the pairing ..

Going to be interesting to see if Barrie plays PP#1 instead of Rielly, because as a RHD he really overlaps the role that Marner currently plays on the PP on the point.

Maybe Leafs use 2 Dmen on the PP#1 this year, because Barrie is much like having a 4th forward anyways.

PP#1
Matthews -- Tavares -- Marner
Rielly -- Barrie

This seems completely absurd. The Leafs PP was terrible last year (7.71 G/60 after 9.44 and 8.66 the previous two seasons). Stacking the PP1 didn't work. Part of that was their second unit was awful and got 40% of the PP time. Part of it was that the stacked PP1 didn't out perform the leafs' PPs from previous years. The experiment failed. I know everyone dreams of a stacked PP1 that plays 90+% of the PP and sets the world on fire. But that is not happening while Babs is the coach.

Make two relatively even PP units. I suggest based around:
Tavares - Marner - Rielly
Matthews - Nylander - Barrie

Play both units about the same over the course of the season. Start the more rested unit first. Be able to continue a top notch PP from the first second until the last and be better able to take advantage of tired or weaker secondary PKers.

If the Leafs have to pick an either/or Muzzin or Barrie as to who to keep as both are pending UFAs, I wouldn't be surprised if Leafs keep Muzz and Barrie hits the market and gets a big $$ payday as a UFA for a team that needs offense from the defense. Tyson is already asking for >$8 mil per and going to be a rich deal.

No one knows what the Leafs will do, but it is completely absurd the number of fans who are interested in tossing away the first high calibre RHD this team has in a generation in order to stack up more and more LHDs.

And while I haven't paid much attention, the number I heard shortly after Barrie was acquired was they were looking for 60 over 8 which would be 7.5, and if that is the ask they could probably get him for 7 - IF they find that he is a fit and IF he is interested in signing long term in Toronto. Front the load the contract to ensure it is moveable if he starts to deteriorate.

 

[zeke]

Zeke, I thought you were supposed to be some kind of analytical guru.

Nobody is arguing that he can't help put the puck in the net... they're arguing his effectiveness of a complete player. As important is it is to be able to produce offensively, its ALSO important to be competent defensively.

Fact of the matter is, he isn't all that good at keeping the puck out of the net.

Last 3 seasons, he's 65th in the NHL in goals allowed, despite playing next to no PK time, and almost everyone ahead of him played significant PK time. Add the fact that he starts a LOT more in the offensive zone than the defensive zone, and that is pretty bad.

Even strength goals against, last 3 years:

1.Ceci 230
2.Leddy 208
3.Ristolainen 208
4.Petry 207
5.Rielly 204
6.Ekblad 203
7.OEL 200
8.Burns 197
9.Severson 197
10.Keith 195
11.Karlsson 195
12.Suter 194
13.Provorov 191
14.Yandle 190
15.Goligoski 187
16.Slavin 184
17.Barrie 184
18.Faulk 182
19.Skjei 182
20.Doughty 181
21.Larsson 181
22.Orlov 181
23.Greene 180
24.Zaitsev 179
25.Jones 179
26.Dumoulin 178
27.Hanifin 176
28.Vlasic 173
29.Brodie 173
30.Pietrangelo 172


some pretty good dmen there.

 

[zeke]

I know everyone dreams of a stacked PP1 that plays 90+% of the PP and sets the world on fire. But that is not happening while Babs is the coach..

Interesting thing about the two new assistant coaches.

McFarland was PP coach in florida the last 2yrs:

Barkov 3:27
Yandle 3:26
Huberdeau 3:24
Dadonov 3:20
Trochek 3:02
(Hoffman 3:26 - only 1 season)

Ekblad 1:55
Bjugstad 1:36
Vatrano 1:31
McGinn 1:29
McCann 0:49


Hakstol was coach in Philly the last 4yrs:

Gost 3:43
Giroux 3:39
Schenn 3:28 (2yrs) / Couturier 2:236
Voracek 3:28
Simmonds 3:11 /JVR 2:46

Patrick 1:44
Provorov 1:40
Konecny 1:34
Weal 1:28
Lindblom 1:03


Compared to the leafs last 3yrs:

Matthews 2:24
Marner 2:23
Tavares 2:36 / JVR 2:21
Kadri 2:17
Gardiner 2:11

Bozak 2:17
Nylander 2:06
Rielly 1:56
Marleau 1:53
Leivo 1:47 / Ennis 1:36 / Johnsson 1:33 / Komarov 1:25

 

[HoweHullOrr]

^^^ #106

Given that 30 of the 180 (approx) NHL defenders are included in the list above, shall we assume this is the top 30 list of all NHL defenders for even strength goals against?

 

[Mess]

Even strength goals against, last 3 years:

1.Ceci 230
2.Leddy 208
3.Ristolainen 208
4.Petry 207
5.Rielly 204
6.Ekblad 203
7.OEL 200
8.Burns 197
9.Severson 197
10.Keith 195
11.Karlsson 195
12.Suter 194
13.Provorov 191
14.Yandle 190
15.Goligoski 187
16.Slavin 184
17.Barrie 184
18.Faulk 182
19.Skjei 182
20.Doughty 181
21.Larsson 181
22.Orlov 181
23.Greene 180
24.Zaitsev 179

some pretty good dmen there.

Leaf Nation wanted Zaitsev run out of town yet Ceci and Barrie surrendered more ES goals against as did Leafs own Rielly.

Our Leafs finished 18th in GA last season and now have added 2 X Dmen that have been among the league leaders in goals against the past 3 years.

That list does not suggest Leafs will be better defensively when 3 of their top 4 Dmen appear in the top 16/17 worst in ES goals against.

 

[zeke]

Leaf Nation wanted Zaitsev run out of town yet Ceci and Barrie surrendered more ES goals against as did Leafs own Rielly.

Our Leafs finished 18th in GA last season and now have added 2 X Dmen that have been among the league leaders in goals against the past 3 years.

That list does not suggest Leafs will be better defensively when 3 of their top 4 Dmen appear in the top 16/17 worst in ES goals against.

yeah we got a guy so bad he ranks about the same as Seth Jones and Alex Pietrangelo.

 

[MyBudJT]

Even strength goals against, last 3 years:

1.Ceci 230
2.Leddy 208
3.Ristolainen 208
4.Petry 207
5.Rielly 204
6.Ekblad 203
7.OEL 200
8.Burns 197
9.Severson 197
10.Keith 195
11.Karlsson 195
12.Suter 194
13.Provorov 191
14.Yandle 190
15.Goligoski 187
16.Slavin 184
17.Barrie 184
18.Faulk 182
19.Skjei 182
20.Doughty 181
21.Larsson 181
22.Orlov 181
23.Greene 180
24.Zaitsev 179
25.Jones 179
26.Dumoulin 178
27.Hanifin 176
28.Vlasic 173
29.Brodie 173
30.Pietrangelo 172


some pretty good dmen there.

Source? These numbers don't really add up with NHL.com. They don't show EV GA numbers, (from what I can see) but would Barrie have been scored on 50+ times on the Powerplay the last 3 years? That would look pretty bad too!

Not that I'm advocating for +/-, but isn't that kind of the most relevant stat in this discussion?

Last three seasons:

 

[zeke]

^^^ #106

Given that 30 of the 180 (approx) NHL defenders are included in the list above, shall we assume this is the top 30 list of all NHL defenders for even strength goals against?

yes.

 

[zeke]

Source? These numbers don't really add up with NHL.com. They don't show EV GA numbers, (from what I can see) but would Barrie have been scored on 50+ times on the Powerplay the last 3 years? That would look pretty bad too!

they're from corsica. they don't include empty net goals.

View attachment 250147

Not that I'm advocating for +/-, but isn't that kind of the most relevant stat in this discussion?

Last three seasons:
View attachment 250149

actually all these stats you are mentioning are horrible stats to use.....as I thought I demonstrated with that list there that shows Barrie ranking alongside the likes of Seth Jones and Alex Pietrangelo and Jacob Slavin and Drew Doughty.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

yes.

OK, figured that, although it wasn't explicitly stated in your post. Numbers would tend to be better for a defender that plays with good team mates I'd think ....

 

[zeke]

OK, figured that, although it wasn't explicitly stated in your post. Numbers would tend to better for a defender that plays with good team mates I'd think ....

yes, I think that list there shows pretty clearly that it's not a good stat to use to judge players' defense.

unless you think the likes of Pietrangelo, Doughty, Jones, Slavin, etc. are bad defensively.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I think that splitting PP time or maximizing one unit depends a lot on personnel. We'll likely have a high-end PP d-man on the second unit. Nylander will probably be there too, with a season as one of the league's best on the PP behind him. If that's closer to his true PP value than what he's done on our pathetic second unit the last two years, that's value we need to maximize.

 

[MyBudJT]

they're from corsica. they don't include empty net goals.



actually all these stats you are mentioning are horrible stats to use.....as I thought I demonstrated with that list there that shows Barrie ranking alongside the likes of Seth Jones and Alex Pietrangelo and Jacob Slavin and Drew Doughty.

Except that at 5v5 Barrie does a poorer job at scoring than being scored against.

Context is important here. Barrie is a larger liability on 5v5 than all these top defensmen you're trying to compare him to.

 

[zeke]

Except that at 5v5 Barrie does a poorer job at scoring more at 5v5 than being scored against.

Context is important here. Barrie is a larger liability on 5v5 than all these top defensmen you're trying to compare him to.

If you don't like the stats you used, and I responded to, and now have to change the stat you think matters already, don't use it in the first place.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

yes, I think that list there shows pretty clearly that it's not a good stat to use to judge players' defense.

unless you think the likes of Pietrangelo, Doughty, Jones, Slavin, etc. are bad defensively.

Hmmm ........ in your list, doesn't it mean that Pietrangelo has the lowest (even strength) goals against, hence is the best defender at least 'according to' this specific stat (only)?

 

[zeke]

Hmmm ..... in your list, doesn't it mean that Pietrangelo has the lowest goals (even strength) goals against, hence is the best defender at least 'according to' this stat?

no, it means he's the 30th worst in the entire league, by that stat.

 

[MyBudJT]

I think that splitting PP time or maximizing one unit depends a lot on personnel. We'll likely have a high-end PP d-man on the second unit. Nylander will probably be there too, with a season as one of the league's best on the PP behind him. If that's closer to his true PP value than what he's done on our pathetic second unit the last two years, that's value we need to maximize.

I think the PP discussion is an interesting one.

I really think we should go back to our 1A / 1B approach we had in 2017/18.

I'd like to see something like:

-------Mikheyev*-------
Nylander-----Matthews
----Kerfoot---Rielly----


---------Tavares--------
Spezza----------Marner
---Barrie----Muzzin---

* Position to be fought out with Johnsson and Kapanen, although Johnsson may be too small for the role.

 

[MyBudJT]

If you don't like the stats you used, and I responded to, and now have to change the stat you think matters already, don't use it in the first place.

I was providing context to why people are skeptical to Barrie. Thats it.

Anyways, I'm not the statistical guy that preaches /60 stats unless it doesn't fit my narrative. Another factor that should be considered is zone starts.

 

[Mr Hockey]

You can put up a bunch of stats that will make an elite d'man look bad, try and use common sense boys in these back and forths... just saying

 

[hotpaws]

no, it means he's the 30th worst in the entire league, by that stat.

Why'd you use total goals against instead of goal against per 60 which take into account the ice time each individual played ?

 

[zeke]

I was providing context to why people are skeptical to Barrie. Thats it.

and I was showing giving context to your context.

Anyways, I'm not the statistical guy that preaches /60 stats unless it doesn't fit my narrative.

I always use /60 stats, and it determines my narrative.

You were the one who literally just changed your stat to fit a narrative.